Friday 2 March 2012

Premier League Betting Value (March 3rd)


BetsLayer non-TV Value highlights

QPR v Everton = Half time draw (2.10)
Stoke v Norwich = Lay Stoke (1.95)
West Brom v Chelsea = Dutch Chelsea victory by 1 or 2 goals (2.15)
Wigan v Swansea = Draw (3.30)
Blackburn v Aston Villa = 1st half highest scoring (3.20)
Manchester City v Bolton = Man City to win both halves (2.10)



LIVERPOOL v ARSENAL (Saturday 12.45pm Sky Sports 2)

Stats Analysis

Liverpool are unbeaten at home this season and have a solid record against similar opposition losing only once in the last 10 games. They can be backed at (2.05) which is very much inline with the ratings. If you do fancy Liverpool to win, the win by 1 or 2 goals makes good sense as 4 of Liverpool's 5 home wins against similar opponents and  6 of Arsenal's last 7 away defeats have been by the 1 or 2 goal margin. Dutching the Liverpool win by 1 or 2 goals pays (2.40)

There is a strong draw bias to this game and Liverpool have drawn 7 of their last 9 home games. The draw can be backed at (3.60) which offers value and is an attractive option.

Arsenal are available at (4.00) and this holds no real value. Arsenal have though won 4 of their last 5 away to similar opponents so they should be considered. If you do fancy Arsenal to do well then it would be wise to keep the draw on side and Arsenal can be backed +0.5 goals on the Asian Handicap at (1.91)

As for goals there are some mixed stats between these two sides. However there is a strong bias to 3 or more goals with Arsenal and 9 of their last 10 matches away to similar opponents have seen 3 or more goals. Over 2.5 goals is available at (1.91) and this price is a value option.

Both teams to score looks a strong option and this has been seen in 8 of Liverpool's opening 12 home games this season and 11 of Arsenals last 15 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.73) and this looks priced with some small value.

Finally in what will be a hard fought game, there could be some good value backing the half time draw, this has been seen in 7 of the last 9 Liverpool home games and in 5 of the last 8 Arsenal away games. Half Time draw (2.20)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Half Time draw (2.20)

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