Premier League Betting Value Analysis (January 31st)

SWANSEA v CHELSEA

Stats Analysis 

Looking at the ratings there is good value about Swansea at (4.80), they have a good home record including a strong win against Arsenal in their last home game and have lost only 1 in their 11 Premier League home games. If you do fancy Swansea to do well it would certainly make sense to back on the Asian Handicap at +0.5 goals which keeps the draw on side, available at (2.00). The draw is available at (3.60) and in a game with a decent draw bias this must be considered, Swansea have drawn 5 of their 11 home games.

As Swansea are generally strong at home and with a low scoring bias, another market maybe worth looking at is the Half time market. Swansea have drawn the first half in 6 of their 11 home games (5 of which were 0-0) and Chelsea have drawn 8 from 15 away including the last 4 (6 of the 8 were 0-0). The HT draw is available at (2.25) and 0-0 as the HT score is available at (3.00).

There is no real value about Chelsea's price here at (1.88), their record at similar rated sides holds only 3 wins from the last 10 games and they have only won 6 from the last 15 away games. As stated above Swansea have lost only 1 of their 11 home games. 

Analysing the goals markets, there is strong bias to -2.5 goals, this has featured in 8 of Swansea's 11 home games and 8 from Chelsea's last 15 away, with 7 from the last 10 looking at rated form. Under 2.5 goals is available at (1.93) and looks a good value price. Both teams to score looks mixed with only featuring in 4 from Swansea's 11 home games but 9 from the last 15 Chelsea away games (4 from the last 10 against similar rated teams). Both Teams to Score (1.91) offers no value and though there is value in the NO its not really of interest as there are better options available such as the Under 2.5 above.

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Under 2.5 goals is available at (1.93)

SPURS v WIGAN

Stats Analysis

The ratings look about right when looking at the Spurs price (1.25), a word of caution though is that their home form against similar rated opposition is not perfect with a record of W5 D4 L1.

If you do think Spurs will win but don't fancy such short odds Dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals makes some sense as 7 of Spurs last 9 home victories and 4 of Spurs last 5 home victories to similar opposition have come via this margin as well as 3 of the last 5 Wigan defeats against top rated sides. Dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals at (2.05).

Wigan are priced at (15.00) and this again looks priced about right. If you do fancy Wigan to do well then your best option is certainly to back them on the Asian Handicap +1.75 goals at (2.10).

Spurs have had -2.5 goals in 6 of the last 7 home matches and in 9 of the last 12 home games against similar opposition. Only 5 from the last 10 Wigan away games against top rated sides have featured 3 or more goals. Under 2.5 looks value at (2.50). No on both teams to score looks an option at (1.80) as Wigan have scored only once in the last 10 away against similar opposition.

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Dutch Spurs to win by 1 or 2 goals at (2.05) 

WOLVES v LIVERPOOL

Stats Analysis

Wolves are priced at (5.50) and although this offers some small value and they have won 3 from the last 10 at home to similar opposition although all took place last season. However if you expect them to do well here then they can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.75 goals at (1.91). This means that should Wolves lose by the single goal then you would receive half of your stake back.

The ratings again look about right for Liverpool to win here, priced at (1.73). They do though have a fairly poor record away at similar opposition, winning only 1 of the last 10. The draw can be backed at (3.80) and this offers some value when looking at each sides form.

As for goals, the markets look very mixed, there has been +2.5 goals in 12 of the last 15 home games and in 9 from the last 10 against similar rated sides. For Liverpool its only featured in 6 from the last 15 and 5 from the last 10 against similar opposition. Over 2.5 looks to hold some value at (2.00).

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The draw at (3.80)

EVERTON v MANCHESTER CITY

Stats Analysis

Everton are priced at (4.50) and this looks to offer no real value. However Everton do have a good record at home to top rated sides with 4 wins in the last 10. If you do fancy them to do well then it would certainly makes sense to keep the draw on side and back on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at (2.00). The draw can be backed at (3.50) and doesn't really hold any value.

The ratings show that there is some good value in backing Manchester City to win this game at (1.85).

There have been -2.5 goals scored in 7 of the last 10 of Everton’s home matches (3 of the last 3 against top rated sides) and in 5 of the last 8 of Man City’s away games against similar opposition. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.91) and this offers some small value. Both teams to score looks mixed and there is no value in the price at (1.91)

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Manchester City to win (1.85)

MANCHESTER UNITED v STOKE 

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Manchester united to win this game at (1.25), however Stoke have lost 9 from the last 10 against similar opposition and all by HT/FT. Man Utd have had W/Ws in 21 of the last 30 home matches since 2010/2011 with 6 from the last 10 against similar opposition and Stoke have had L/Ls in 9 of the last 10 away games against top rated opposition. Manchester United can be backed at (1.73)to win via the Half Time/Full Time result and this looks to offer some value.

Stoke can be backed at (13.00) and this holds little appeal given their away form in general and at similar opposition.  The draw can be backed at (6.00) and this holds some value but no real attraction.

As for goals there is no real value in the Under/Over markets. One market that could interest is No on both teams to score, Both teams have scored in only 2 of Stoke's last 10 away to top rated sides and in 3 of Manchester United's last 10 at home to similar opposition. NO on both teams to score at (1.85)

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NO on both teams to score at (1.85)

Premier League Betting Value Analysis (January 22nd)

MANCHESTER CITY v SPURS

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is value in backing Manchester City to win this game they have an excellent home record and have won their last 15 home games. Manchester City can be backed at (1.91)

Spurs can be backed at (4.33) and although this offers no value, Spurs do have a reasonable record at Manchester City winning 3 of the last 5. If you do fancy Spurs to do well then your best option is certainly to keep the draw on side and Spurs can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at (2.06). The draw can be backed at (3.80) and looks to hold only a little value and is a consideration.

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more with this featuring in 11 of the last 15 Manchester City home games and 9 from 15 Spurs Away games. In rated form it has featured in 6 from the last 10. Over 2.5 goals at (1.80) looks about right though. Both teams to score, Man City have only conceded in 3 of 11 matches at home to similar rated sides and in the case of Spurs they have scored in only 4 of their last 10 away to top rated sides. The above therefore suggests that there is some value in backing No on both teams to score which can be backed at (2.10)

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Manchester City to win (1.91)

ARSENAL v MANCHESTER UNITED

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Arsenal to win this game. However they do have a decent home record against top rated sides W3 D2 L2. Arsenal can be backed at (2.90)

Manchester United are priced at (2.60) to win this game and this looks to offer some good value. However given both sides recent form against similar opposition we would certainly look to keep the draw on side. Manchester United can be backed + 0 goals on the Asian Handicap at (1.90). The draw can be backed at (3.40) which holds little value but must be considered in a tight game.

As for goals this should be a very tight encounter. 2 or less goals have been seen in 10 of Arsenal's last 15 home games and in 9 of Manchester United's last 13 away games. It has also been seen in 4 of Arsenal's last 7 home games to top rated sides and also in 5 of Manchester United's last 7 away again to top rated sides. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00). No on both teams to score looks a good option, both teams have found the net in 2 of both teams respective last 7 home and away games to top rated sides and in only 6 of the last 15 home and away games. The No on Both teams to score can be backed at (2.20).

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Under 2.5 goals (2.00)

Premier League Betting Value Analysis (January 21st)

NORWICH v CHELSEA
Stats Analysis

There is some good value in Norwich's price here (6.00) although they have lost at home against the two other top 6 sides that have visited Carrow road this season. The draw is priced at (4.00) and this offers some reasonable value and is certainly worth serious consideration.

Chelsea can be backed at (1.67) and this offers no real value. If you do fancy Chelsea to win then dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals certainly makes sense as 5 of their last 7 away victories have been via this margin as has all 3 of Norwich's home defeats this season.Dutching the Chelsea win by 1 or 2 goals (2.10)

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more, Norwich have conceded in every home game this season so far and there have been 3 or more goals in 11 of their last 15 home games and Both teams have scored in 12 of their last 15 home games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.62) and this looks a little short to get involved. Both teams to score is priced at (1.67) and again this offers no real value.

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Chelsea win by 1 or 2 goals (2.10)

  

QPR v WIGAN

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in QPRs current price. QPR can be backed at Evens (2.00). 

Wigan can be backed at (4.20) and this offers some good value especially when you consider that QPR have only won 1 home game this season. If you do fancy Wigan to do well then you are certainly best keeping the draw on side and Wigan can be backed +0.25 goals on the Asian Handicap at (2.16).The draw can be backed at (3.40) and although this offers little value it should certainly be given some serious consideration.

As for goals there are mixed stats around, but there has been 3 or more goals in 7 of Wigan's last 10 away games at similar rated sides. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.05) which seems reasonable. Both teams to score is a good option as both teams have scored in 6 of Wigan's last 7 away to similar rated sides and in 6 of QPR's last 8 home games. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.91).

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Both teams to score (1.91)

STOKE v WEST BROM

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Stoke to win this game and their recent home record against similar rated sides is very ordinary at W3 D3 L4. Stoke can be backed at (1.91). The draw is priced at (3.50) and this looks to offer some good value.

West Brom are priced at (4.33) and this offers some value given West Brom's recent away record to similar rated sides where they are unbeaten in 6 matches. If you do fancy West Brom to do well here then it would make sense to keep the draw on side and back +0.5 goals on the Asian Handicap at (2.00) 

As for goals there is certainly a bias to 3 or more, West Brom's recent away form has seen 12 of their last 15 away games with 3 or more goals as has 6 of their last 9 away to similar rated sides. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00). Both teams to score looks an option but this is priced about right at (1.80)

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The draw (3.50) 

SUNDERLAND v SWANSEA

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Sunderland to win this match. However they have improved since Martin O’Neil took over. Sunderland can be backed at (1.91). If you do fancy Sunderland dutching the victory by 1 or 2 goals makes some sense and both of Sunderland's victories at home to similar rated sides have come via this margin. Dutching the Sunderland victory by 1 or 2 goals (2.20)

Swansea are priced at (4.75) and this looks to offer good value. However if you do fancy Swansea to do well then it would pay to keep the draw on side and Swansea can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at (2.00). The draw can be backed at (3.50) and this offers some value.

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more goals and this has been seen in  10 of Sunderland's last 14 home games and in 8 of their last 10 at home to similar rated  sides. In the case of Swansea it has been seen in 5 of their opening 10 away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.20) and this looks to offer good value. Both teams have scored in 7 of the last 10 Sunderland games against similar opposition and this looks to hold some value at (2.02).

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The draw (3.50)

WOLVES v ASTON VILLA

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Wolves to win this game and they have only won 2 of their last 10 at home to similar rated sides and Aston Villa have only lost 1 of their last 10 away to similar rated sides. Wolves can be backed at (2.50). If you do fancy Wolves to do well then I would certainly suggest keeping the draw on side and backing on the Asian Handicap +0 goals at (1.85)

Aston Villa can be backed at (2.90) and this price offers some value and is worth consideration. However there is a strong Draw bias to this game and we would certainly want to keep this on our side and Aston Villa can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0 goals at (2.10). The draw is value priced at (3.40)

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more and this has been seen in 12 of Wolves last 15 home games and in 10 of Aston Villa's last 15 away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.00). Both teams to score has featured in 11 of the last 15 home and away games and can be backed at a reasonable (1.85).

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The draw (3.40)

EVERTON v BLACKBURN

Stats Analysis

The ratings look about right although they do suggest their maybe some small value in opposing Everton. Everton can be backed at (1.53). If you do fancy Everton to win this game then the best option is to dutch them to win by 1 or 2 goals as this has been the winning margin in all 7 of Everton's last 7 home victories and in 5 of Blackburn's last 6 away defeats. Dutching the Everton victory by 1 or 2 goals at (2.04)

Blackburn can be backed at (7.50) and this is priced correctly. If you do fancy Blackburn to do well here then you are best keeping the draw on side and backing +1 goal on the Asian Handicap at (2.05). The draw can be backed at (4.00) and this offers some value.

As far as goals are concerned then the Overs / Unders market is priced fairly with Over 2.5 goals priced at (1.91). Both teams to score is a better option as both teams have scored in 6 of Everton's last 10 at home to similar rated sides  in 8 of Blackburn's last 10 away games to similar rated sides. Both teams to score looks a strong bet at (1.96)

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Both teams to score (1.96)

FULHAM v NEWCASTLE

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is no real value in backing Fulham and they can be backed at (2.10). However it should be remembered that they do have a very impressive record at home to similar rated sides which reads W7 D2 L1. If you want to improve the value dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals is probably the best option as this has been the margin of victory in 6 of the last 7 home victories against similar rated sides and it has also been the margin of defeat in all 3 of Newcastle's away defeats this season. Dutching the Fulham win by 1 or 2 goals at (2.50).

Newcastle are available at (3.90) and this offers some good value. There is though a strong draw bias, looking to keep this on side and Newcastle can be backed +0.5 goals on the Asian Handicap at (1.91). The draw is priced at (3.40) and this offers some value. 

As for goals, there looks to be some value in 3 or more, this has been seen in 11 of the last 15 Fulham home games and in 8 of the last 15 Newcastle away games, its a little more patchy on rated form but still looks an option at (2.20). Both Teams to score looks mixed and priced about right with value towards NO on rated form, having only been seen in 4 from 10 home games and 3 from 8 away games. No on both teams to score (2.00).

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The draw (3.40)

BOLTON v LIVERPOOL

Stats Analysis

The ratings are very close to what's available and Liverpool do have a very strong record at the Reebok having won 4 of the last 5 encounters. Liverpool can be backed at 4/6 (1.67). If you want to improve on the Liverpool price then dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals is certainly an option as 6 of Liverpool's last 7 away victories and 8 of Bolton's last 10 home defeats have come via this margin. Dutching Liverpool to win by 1 or 2 goals at (2.04).

Bolton can be backed at (6.50) and this offers not much value. If you do fancy Bolton to do well then you are best keeping the draw on side and Bolton can be backed +1 goal on the Asian Handicap at (1.82). The draw is priced at (3.80) and this offers some good value.

As for goals there are some mixed stats coming out of this game. There is some value in backing Under 2.5 goals as this has been seen in 10 of Liverpool's last 15 away games. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.00). The No on Both teams to score looks of interest as both teams have scored in only 4 of Liverpool's last 15 away games. Also Bolton have lost 5 of their last 8 home defeats to similar rated sides to nil. The No on both teams to score can be backed at (1.95)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Under 2.5 goals (2.00)

Wigan v Manchester City - Premier League Betting Value

WIGAN v MANCHESTER CITY

Stats Analysis

Wigan can be backed at (11.00) and this is a reasonable price and they do have an interesting record at home to top rated sides which reads W3 D3 L4. If you do fancy Wigan to do well then your best way into the market is to back them on the Asian Handicap +1.25 goals (2.10). The draw can be backed at (5.00) and this also offers some value.

The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Manchester City to win this game at their current price of (1.44). If you do fancy Manchester City to win then it makes some sense to back them to win via the Half Time / Full Time result as 6 of City's last 7 away victories to low rated sides have come via this result as has all 4 of the last Wigan home defeats to top rated sides. Manchester City HT/FT priced at (2.00). Dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals is certainly another option as since the start of last season all 5 of their last 5 away victories at low rated sides have come via this margin. Manchester City win by 1 or 2 goals (1.95)

As for goals there is a definite bias to 3 or more and this can be backed at (1.67) which offers not much value. Both teams to score has been seen in 7 of Manchester City's last 10 away games to low rated sides and in 6 of Wigan's last 10 at home to top rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at (2.00)

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Manchester City win by 1 or 2 goals (1.95)

Premier League Betting Value (January 15th)

NEWCASTLE v QPR

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is some value in backing Newcastle at their current price of (1.83), Newcastle have won 7 of the last 7 home games against low rated teams.

QPR have lost 6 of the last 8 league fixtures, 3 from 3 away to top-half sides, they can be backed at (5.25) and this offers no real value. The draw can be backed at (3.75) and this offers some value and attraction especially given that Newcastle will be missing Ba and Tiote who are at the African Cup of Nations.

Over 2.5 goals has been seen in 11 of Newcastle's last 15 home games and in 6 of their last 9 at home to similar rated sides. QPR have had 3 goals or more in 5 of their opening 10 away games including their 2 away games to similar rated sides. Over 2.5 (2.00). Both teams to score does hold some appeal, QPR both teams have scored in 4 of their last 6 away games and in 9 of Newcastle's last 15 home games. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.80).

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The Draw (3.75)

SWANSEA v ARSENAL

Stats Analysis

Swansea can be backed at (5.50) and this looks to offer some good value. If you do fancy Swansea it makes sense to back on the Asian Handicap +1 goal at (1.80)

The ratings are suggesting that there is no real value in backing Arsenal to win this game. However they do have an excellent away record at similar rated sides which reads W7 D2 L1. Arsenal can be backed at (1.67). If you do fancy Arsenal to win here then dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals certainly looks to make some sense especially considering Swansea's tight home form. Dutching the Arsenal victory by 1 or 2 goals (2.10)

There have been +2.5 goals in 10 of the last 10 Arsenal away matches against similar rated teams and +3.5 goals in 10 of the last 17 Arsenal away matches also looking at Swansea's recent home and away form if they concede it suggests 3 or more. Over 2.5 goals (2.00). Both teams have scored in 12 of Arsenal's last 15 away games and Arsenal have only failed to find the net away once this season. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.91)

Late goals are a possibility and 12 of Arsenal's last 16 away games have seen a goal scored after 75 minutes. The last goal of the game to come after 74 minutes can be backed at (1.91).

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The Draw (3.75)

Premier League Betting Value (January 14th)

ASTON VILLA v EVERTON

Stats Analysis

Aston Villa are available at (2.50) to win this game and this offers small value. There is though quite a strong draw bias to this game and if you do fancy Villa to do well then you are best keeping the draw on side and Aston villa can be backed  on the Asian Handicap +0 goals at (1.83). The draw can be backed at (3.40)

Everton can be backed at (3.00) and this does not offer much value. If you do fancy Everton to win then it makes sense to keep the draw on side and they can be backed +0 goals at (2.10).

As for goals there is a definite bias to 2 or less, there has been -2.5 goals in 11 of the last 15 Aston Villa home matches and in 10 of the last 13 Everton away matches. However at (1.65) this looks about its money. Despite the low goal count both teams to score looks a reasonable proposition as both teams have scored in 6 of 10 of both sides respective home & away games to similar rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.95).

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Aston Villa Asian Handicap +0 goals at (1.83)

BLACKBURN v FULHAM

Stats Analysis

Blackburn can be backed at (2.80) to win this game and this offers no real value. If you do fancy Blackburn to do well then your best option is to keep the draw on side and Blackburn can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0 goals at (2.05). The draw can be backed at (3.40) which must be considered although doesn't hold much value.

Fulham are available (2.62) and this looks to offer reasonable value. However we would suggest keeping the draw on side and Fulham can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0 goals at (1.92).

As for goals there is a bias to 2 or less, which has been seen in 6 of the last 10 Blackburn home games against similar opposition and in 12 of 15 Fulham away games and in 8 of the last 10 against similar rated sides. Under 2.5 goals (1.91) which looks reasonable but it should be highlighted that 8 of the last 10 Blackburn home games have been Over 2.5. Both Teams to Score again looks a little mixed with it featuring in only 2 of the last 10 Fulham away games against similar rated sides but in 9 of the last 15 Blackburn home games and 5 from 10 against similar rated sides. No Both teams to Score (2.20)

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Fulham Asian Handicap +0 goals at (1.92)

CHELSEA v SUNDERLAND

Stats Analysis

The ratings are very much in line with what the bookmakers are offering and Chelsea can be backed at (1.36) to win this game. Dutching the Chelsea victory by 1 or 2 looks of some appeal as 15 of Chelsea's last 20 home victories have come via this margin as have 11 of Sunderland’s last 13 away defeats.  Dutching the Chelsea victory by 1 or 2 goals at (1.94). Chelsea have won 15 of the last 20 home matches against similar rated teams while Sunderland have had L/L double results in 7 of the last 10 away matches against top rated teams. Chelsea HT/FT (2.15)

 If you think Sunderland can earn another 3 points at the bridge, following last seasons 0-3 shocker, then they can be backed at (10.50) which offers a price which is about right to the ratings. If you do fancy Sunderland there are certainly worse bets than on the Asian Handicap they can be backed +1.5 goals at (1.92). The draw is available at (5.00) and this again looks about right.

As for goals there is bias to 3 or more, given the fact that Chelsea have conceded in 9 of their opening 10 home games and there have been 3 or more goals in 13 of the last 15 home games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.65) which looks tight. Given the skew towards goals then Both teams to score certainly looks to offer some value as both teams have scored in 11 of Chelsea's last 12 home games and Sunderlands have scored 7 goals in their last 2 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.95).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutching the Chelsea victory by 1 or 2 goals at (1.94)

LIVERPOOL v STOKE

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is no value in backing Liverpool to win at (1.44). Dutching Liverpool to win by 1 or 2 goals could be an alternative as 6 of Liverpool's last 7 victories to similar rated sides have come via this margin. Dutching the Liverpool victory by 1 or 2 goals at (1.92). Another option if backing Liverpool is to win to nil. Liverpool have won 5 of their last 9 victories at home to similar rated sides to nil and Stoke have lost 9 of their last 11 away defeats to similar rated sides to nil.  Liverpool can be backed to win to nil at (2.20).
 
Stoke can be backed at (9.00) and this offers value. If you do fancy Stoke to do well then your best option is certainly to back them on the Asian handicap and they can be backed +1.25 goals at (1.90). The draw can be backed at (4.50) and this must be considered given Liverpool's home form with 5 draws in the last 7 home games.

As for goals there is certainly a bias to 2 or under and this has been seen in 7 of Stokes last 8 away at similar rated sides. This has also been seen in 7 of Liverpool's opening 10 home games. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.00).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Liverpool win to nil at (2.20)

MANCHESTER UNITED v BOLTON

Stats Analysis

The ratings are pretty near in line and in truth there is no value in backing Manchester United to win this game at (1.17), especially given their last home performance against a botton 3 side and mounting injuries.

The draw can be backed at (8.50) and this offers some value and is an option if you fancy Manchester United to struggle. Bolton can be backed at (21.00) and again this offers no real appeal given both sides recent record against similar opposition. If you do fancy Bolton to do well then there could be some sense in the Asian Handicap and they can be backed +2.25 goals at (2.00) Manchester United have won 11 of their last 18 by 2 goals or more (but only 5 were 3+) in the case of Bolton  2 of their last 5 defeats were by 2 goals or more.

As for goals you have to say there is some value in backing under 2.5 goals as this has been seen in 6 of Bolton's last 10 away to top rated sides and in 5 of Manchester United's last 10 home to similar rated sides. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (3.25). The 2nd half has been the highest scoring half in 7 of Manchester United's last 10 at home to low rated sides and in 4 of Bolton's last 5 away to top rated sides. The 2nd half to be the highest scoring can be backed at (2.10).

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Under 2.5 goals (3.25)

SPURS v WOLVES

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting there is not much value in backing Spurs to win this game and although they are showing some good recent form they do occasionally stumble against sides they are expected to beat, they have drawn 3 and lost 1 of their previous 10 home games against similar opposition. Spurs can be backed at (1.30). If you do fancy Spurs to do well then the best option is to dutch them to win by 1 or 2 goals. 7 of Spurs last 9 home victories have come by 1 or 2 goal. Wolves have also seen this margin in 8 of their last 10 away defeats to top rated sides. Dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals at (2.00).

Wolves are priced at (13.00) and this offers some value however if you do think Wolves will do well then there is value on the Asian Handicap. Wolves can be backed +1.50 goals at (2.10). The draw is available at (5.50) which holds some value but little appeal in truth.

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more however the (1.53) makes for no appeal. Both teams to score looks more tempting and this can be backed at (1.95). This looks value as Both teams have scored in 10 of Spurs last 15 at home and 9 of Wolves last 14 away game.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutch Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals (2.00)

WEST BROM v NORWICH

Stats Analysis

Again the ratings are very much in line with whats on offer and West Brom can be backed at Evens (2.00). If you do fancy West Brom to win then dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals certainly is an option as all 10 of West Brom's  last 10 home victories have come via this margin. Dutching the West Brom victory by 1 or 2 goals at (2.30)

Norwich can be backed at (4.00) which doesn't hold much value. If you do fancy Norwich to do well then you are certainly best keeping the draw on side and Norwich can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at (1.95) The draw can be backed at (3.50) and looks a good option in a tough game to call.

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more. Over 2.5 goals have been seen in 5 of West Brom's previous 7 home games to similar rated sides and in 6 of Norwich's last 9 away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.83). Both teams to score looks a solid option as both teams have scored in 12 of Norwich's last 15 away games and in all 3 of their away encounters against similar rated opposition. In the case of West Brom both teams have scored in 6 of their last 7 home games to similar rated sides. Both Teams to Score (1.70)

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The Draw (3.50)

Spurs v Everton - Premier League Betting Value (Jan 11th)

SPURS v EVERTON

Stats Analysis 

Spurs have a very strong home record and have won 9 from the last 10 against similar rated sides. They are available at a healthy looking (1.61). Spurs to win by 1 or 2 goals makes good sense, they have only beaten this margin twice in the last 9 victories and both these were influenced by a red card. This has also been the margin of loss in the last 7 Everton away defeats. Spurs to win by 1 or 2 goals (1.97)

Spurs have had W/Ws in 5 of the last 8 home matches (6 of the last 10 against similar rated sides). Spurs HT/FT (2.54).

Everton have lost the last 6 away games against top rated teams and have failed to win any of their nine league games against top-half clubs this season with 2 draws and 7 losses. There is little value about their price here (6.50). If you do fancy Everton to do well it would be wise to back on the Asian Handicap +1 goal and this bet wouldn't have lost in the last 3 Spurs home games. Everton +1 goal (1.95)

The draw is (4.00) and offers some value, although not much attraction given the form of both sides, Spurs have though only won one of the last eight meetings between the two sides.

As for goals there are some very mixed stats, 9 of 15 Spurs home games have been +2.5 but 10 of Everton's last 15 away games and 6 from the last 10 against top rated sides have finished -2.5 goals. Under 2.5 goals (1.97) which looks priced about right. Both Teams to Score is also difficult, it has featured in 9 of Spurs last 15 home games, but in only 6 of Everton's last 15 away. On rated form it is 7 from 10 home and 6 from 10 away. Both Teams to Score (2.00) again looks like a market to avoid.

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Dutch Spurs to win by 1 or 2 goals (1.97)

Premier League Betting Value (January 4th) (UPDATED)

EVERTON v BOLTON

Stats Analysis

Everton are unbeaten in their last five home matches against Bolton, winning four of them, they have won 9 of the last 17 home matches. There is value in their price to win this game at (1.57)

Bolton have lost 16 of the last 20 away matches and the ratings are suggesting there is no value in their price at (7.50), they have won only 1 in the last 10 against similar rated opponents. The draw is priced about right at (4.00) and must be considered.

As for goals there are very mixed stats about these two sides, in Everton's case the trend is for Under 2.5 goals and this has been seen in 9 of the last 15 home games. But with Bolton's strong stats for Over 2.5 goals seen in 11 of the last 15 away, its probably best to leave this market alone. Under 2.5 (1.94). Both Teams to Score looks a better option and this has been seen in 8 of 15 home and away games and in 5 from 10 against similar rated sides. Both Teams to score holds some small value at (2.04).

The stats are showing that in a game with little standout value there could be some in siding with the 2nd Half having most goals, this has been seen in 9 of the last 15 home and away games. 2nd Half Most Goals (2.20)

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2nd Half Most Goals

(2.20)

NEWCASTLE v MANCHESTER UNITED

Stats Analysis

Newcastle can be backed at (5.50) and this offers value. If you do fancy Newcastle to do well then you are best keeping the draw on side and Newcastle can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.75 goals at (2.00)

Newcastle have drawn 5 of the last 7 home matches against top rated teams the draw can be backed at (3.75) and given how both sides have performed against similar opposition, this looks a strong value bet.

The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Manchester United to win this game. Manchester United's record away to similar rated sides is not that great, they have not lost in 10 matches but with a W4 D6 L0 record. Manchester United to win (1.80). Dutching the Manchester United win by 1 or 2 goals makes sense as 6 of their last 8 away victories and 5 of Newcastle's last 6 home defeats have come via this margin and they were unfortunate to lose by the 3 goal margin against Chelsea. Dutching the Manchester United win by 1 or 2 goals (2.14)

As for goals there have been -2.5 goals in 6 of the last 8 Man Utd away matches against similar rated teams 6 of  the last 7 away games have also seen 2 or less goals and indeed they have kept a clean sheet away in their last 5 away games. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.00). The stats are mixed on both teams to score, especially given the Manchester United clean sheets away. Both Teams to Score at (1.85) is no value given the above.

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The Draw (3.75)

Premier League Betting Value (January 3rd) (updated)

SPURS v WEST BROM

Stats Analysis

Spurs finished the year as the highest placed London side in the Premier League for the first time since 1995. The ratings suggest there isn't much value about their price to win this game at (1.45) and they have only won 6 from the last 10 home matches against similar rated sides. If you do fancy Spurs to win it makes sense to back them to win by 1 or 2 goals, this has been in the margin in 6 of their last 7 home wins against similar rated sides. Spurs to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.02). Spurs have had W/Ws in 5 of the last 7 home matches (14 of the last 23 against similar rated teams). Spurs HT/FT (2.06)

West Brom have already won four matches away from home this season, which is as many as they managed in the whole of last season. They are priced about right at (9.0) to win this game. If you do fancy West Brom its certainly wise to back on the Asian handicap and given the stats above +1.5 goals at (1.90) makes for a solid bet. The draw is available at (4.5) and this does offer some value.

Spurs have had Over 2.5 goals 10 of the last 15 home matches and in rated form Over 2.5 goals 5 of the last 10 matches. West Brom Over 2.5 goals in 12 of the last 15 away matches, Over 2.5 goals 4 of the last 5 matches against similar rated sides. Over 2.5 goals (1.73) which seems to represent good value.

Both teams scored in 10 of the last 15 Spurs home matches and in rated form both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 matches. West Brom Both teams scored in 12 of the last 15 away matches and in 4 of the last 5 away matches at similar rated sides.

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Spurs to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.02)


MANCHESTER CITY v LIVERPOOL

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting there is some good value in backing Manchester City to win this game at (1.93). Man City have won 10 out of 10 home matches and they have won by two or more goals in 9 of their 10 home matches. The price can be improved further by dutching Manchester City to win by 1 or 2 goals, this has been the margin in all their last 7 wins against similar opposition and also in Liverpool's last 5 losses. Manchester City to win by one or 2 goals (2.20).

Liverpool are priced at (5.00) and this offers not much value. If you do fancy Liverpool to do well then they can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at (2.00) which keeps the draw on side,  the draw can be backed at (3.60) which whilst not much value is worth consideration.

As for goals there are some very mixed stats here and we would avoid the Under / Over 2.5 goal market as they are correctly priced. Manchester City being the only team to score is an option they have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 6 home games to similar rated sides. It should be remembered that Liverpool have found the net in all 5 of their last 5 away games to top rated sides. No on both to score (2.10) looks good value though having featured in only 6 from 15 home games and 5 from 15 away games.

2nd half has been the highest scoring in all 6 of Liverpool's last 6 away games to top rated sides it has also been the highest scoring in all 3 of Manchester City's last 3 home games to similar rated sides this season. The 2nd half to be the highest scoring (2.10)

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Manchester City to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.20)

WIGAN v SUNDERLAND

Stats Analysis

The ratings suggest there is some good value in Wigan's price at (2.70), however Sunderland are in good form since Martin O'Neill's arrival and have won three of their five matches since he took charge. Sunderland are not much value though priced at (2.90).

Sunderland have drawn the first half in 12 of the last 15 away matches against low rated teams and its nearly as strong for Wigan with 11 from 15 rated games. HT draw (2.10). There isn't much value in the Full time draw at (3.35) although it is an option in what will be a tight game.

There have been -2.5 goals in 12 of the last 17 Wigan home matches against similar rated teams, but there are some mixed stats and not much value, we would avoid the Under / Over 2.5 goal market as they are correctly priced, Under 2.5 (1.80). Both Teams to score is a good option in a game with little stand out value, its has featured in 8 from the last 10 Wigan home games against similar opposition and 6 from 10 rated Sunderland away games. Both Team to Score (1.9)

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Half Time draw (2.10)

Premier League Betting Value (January 2nd)

WOLVES v CHELSEA

Stats Analysis

Wolves have lost just 1 of the last 5 home matches, winning  5 from 15 home games. They are certainly value to the ratings here at (7.0), but it is hard to see them winning this game. If you do fancy them to do well it could be worth backing them on the Asian Handicap +1 goal at (2.00). The draw is available at (4.1) and this looks good value.

Chelsea haven’t won in four league games and have won only 4 of their 9 away fixtures this season, 6 from the 15 away (5 of 6 HT/FT). They are certainly no value to win this game at (1.63)

 +2.5 goals 12 from 15 home games, 7 from 15 away, 5 from 10 for both on rated form. Over 2.5 goals (1.85). Both scored in 10 of last 15 home games including the last 6, 5 from 10 for both on rated form, 9 of the last 15 away games. Both Teams to score is about right at (1.9).

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The draw (4.1)

ASTON VILLA v SWANSEA

Stats Analysis

Aston Villa have won 6 from the last 10 against similar rated sides, they are available at (1.83) which is very much in line with the ratings. If you do fancy Villa it could be worth backing them to win HT/FT as this has been the result in 4 from 6 wins/losses for both sides. Aston Villa HT/FT (2.75)

Swansea are yet to win in 9 away games this season and at (5.00) are no real value to record their first win here. If you do fancy Swansea to do well, it would make sense to keep the draw onside, they can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at (2.06). The draw is priced at (3.60) which offers slim value and should be considered.

There have been -2.5 goals scored in 10 of the last 15 Aston Villa home matches and in 5 of the last 5 Swansea league games. Under 2.5 goals is available at (1.8). Both Teams to score has featured in 8 from 15 home games, 6 from the last 10 similar rated games and 4 from the 9 Swansea away games. Some slight value at (2.02)

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Under 2.5 goals (1.8)

BLACKBURN v STOKE

Stats Analysis

Blackburn Rovers picked up 19 points from a possible 54 at Ewood Park during 2011, but the ratings are suggesting there is value in their price at (2.70) to win this game and they have won 7 from the last 10 against similar rated sides.

Tony Pulis's men were beaten in 13 of 19 away Premier League fixtures during 2011 but have lost only once in the last 7 league games and that came against the leaders Manchester City. There is no real value about their price at (2.90). The draw is available at (3.40) which is priced about right and must be an option.

At least three goals have been scored in 14 of the last 19 of Blackburn’s league games and also in 9 of the last 11 of Stoke’s league fixtures. Over 2.5 goals has been seen in 8 matches of the last 15 home and away games. Over 2.5 goals is reasonable at (2.05). Both teams scored in 9 of the last 15 home matches and in only 5 of the last 15 away matches. Both teams scored in only 2 of the last 10 Stoke matches against similar rated teams. No on Both Teams to score is value at (2.20)

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Over 2.5 goals (2.05)

QPR v NORWICH

Stats Analysis

QPR are winless in their last seven league matches and have taken just two points in the process, there is no real value in their price at (2.10)

Norwich have drawn each of their last two away matches against Everton and Wolves, having taken the lead in both and their price here is value to the ratings at (3.50). If you do fancy Norwich it is definitely worth keeping the draw on side and backing on the Asian Handicap +0.5 (1.85).

QPR have drawn 4 of their 9 home matches while Norwich have drawn 4 of their 9 away games and three of their last four league fixtures. The draw is priced at (3.40) which offers value.

QPR have Under 2.5 goals in 6 from their 9 home matches and this has been seen in 4 from the 9 Norwich away games. Under 2.5 is available at a reasonable (2.00). Both teams to score could also be an option this has been seen in 5 from 9 home games and in 8 from 9 Norwich away games. Both Teams to score (1.77)

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The Draw (3.40)


FULHAM v ARSENAL

Stats Analysis

Martin Jol's side have suffered defeat in three of their last five home games, Fulham can be backed at (4.00) and this looks value. If you do fancy Fulham to do well then you are certainly best keeping the draw on side and backing on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at (1.95). The draw is priced at (3.60) and this looks to offer some very good value, especially when looking at the rated form where Arsenal have won only 2 from the last 10 games.

The Gunners have won four of their last five away league games, the only exception being their 1-0 defeat at Manchester City. Arsenal can be backed at (1.96) to win this game but this offers no real value. If you do fancy Arsenal to do well then dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals is a good option as all 3 of Arsenal's last 3 away victories to similar rated sides have come via this margin. Dutching Arsenal to win by 1 or 2 goals is priced (2.30)

As for goals Over 2.5 goals have been seen in 10 of Fulham's last 15 home games and in 13 of Arsenal's last 15 away. Against rated opposition 3 or more goals have been seen in 7 of Fulham's last 10 home games to top rated sides and in 8 of Arsenal's last 10 away to similar rated sides. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.96) and this looks to offer some good value. Both teams to score also would seem a good option and this has been seen in 6 of Fulham's last 10 home games to top rated sides and in 9 of Arsenal's last 10 away to similar rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.80).

 There have been +3.5 goals scored in 5 of the last 7 of Fulham’s home matches and also in 12 of the last 21 of Arsenal’s away fixtures (4 of the last 9 against similar rated sides). Over 3.5 (3.50)

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Over 2.5 goals (2.00)