Saturday 31 March 2012

Premier League Betting Value Analysis (April 1st)



NEWCASTLE v LIVERPOOL (Sunday 13:30pm Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis


Newcastle are priced at a value (3.12), if you fancy a safer option back +0.25 Goals Asian handicap (2.00) or +0 Goals Asian Handicap (2.36) which offer value and keep the draw on side.

The Draw is priced (3.50) which holds little value but must be considered

Liverpool are available at (2.50) which holds no value and their away record at similar opponents holds only 3 wins in the last 10

As for goals Over 2.5 goals (2.00) is good value having featured in 4 of both sides last 6 games against similar opponents, also in all the last 4 head to heads at Newcastle.

Both teams to Score (1.73) holds some value having featured in 7 of Newcastles last 10 home games to similar opponents, also in 3 of the last 4 head to heads at Newcastle.

BetsLayer Value Highlights

Newcastle +0.25 Goals Asian handicap (2.00)


SPURS v SWANSEA  (Sunday 16:00pm Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Spurs are priced correctly at (1.44) If you do fancy them to win you can improve the price and value by Dutching Spurs to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.00).all the last 8 of Spurs home victories to similar sides have been by 1 or 2 goals and in Swansea's last 5 away defeats. Another option is Spurs Win to Nil (2.37) 7 of Spurs last 10 home victories have been to nil as have the last 3 against similar opponents, also 5 of Swansea last 8 away defeats have been to nil including the last 3. Spurs to win HT/FT is also a strong option featuring in 8 of the last 10 Spurs victories and 6 of the last 7 Swansea defeats. Spurs HT/FT (2.10)

The Draw (4.80) is not priced with any value and doesn't really interest

Swansea are available at (9.0), if you do fancy Swansea there are worse bets than +1.25 Goals on the Asian Handicap (2.00) If Swansea then lose by single goal margin you receive half of your odds.

As for goals Under 2.5 is value at (2.00), this has featured in 6 of Spurs last 10 home games also in 7 of Swansea's last 10 away games. Both Teams to score looks to be priced to avoid at (1.80) on No

BetsLayer Value Highlights

Dutch Spurs to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.00)


Premier League Betting Value Selections (March 31st)



BetsLayer Value Highlights

Aston Villa v Chelsea - Dutch Chelsea to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.30)
Everton v West Brom -  The Draw (3.60)
Fulham v Norwich - The Draw (3.80)
Manchester City v Sunderland - Manchester City to win to nil (1.91)
QPR v Arsenal - QPR +1 goal (2.03)
Wigan v Stoke - The Draw (3.30)
Wolves v Bolton - +0 Goals Asian Handicap (2.36)

Monday 26 March 2012

Premier League Betting Value Analysis (March 26th)



MANCHESTER UNITED v FULHAM (Monday 20:00pm Sky Sports 1)


Stats Analysis

Manchester United are priced correctly here at (1.25), to improve the price and value take -1.5 goals on the Asian Handicap at (1.80), 5 of Manchester United's last 8 home games against similar opponents have resulted in wins by 2 or more goals, also 4 of Fulham's last 6 away defeats to similar opposition have been by 2 or more goals. Another alternative is the Manchester United HT/FT Result at (1.73) which looks to hold some value having featured in 8 of their last 10 games against similar opposition, Fulham have also lost via the HT/FT result in 6 of their last 8 away defeats to similar opponents.

The Draw is priced at (5.75), which holds little value

Fulham are available at (17.00) which holds no real value, if you do fancy Fulham then your best option maybe +1.50 Goals on the Asian Handicap at (2.20), but as above their recent record at similar opponents doesn't allow for much value or confidence.

As for goals Under 2.5 (2.40) looks to hold value and has featured in 5 of Manchester United's last 9 at home to similar opponents, also in 6 of Fulham's last 9 away games to similar opposition. Under 2.5 goals (2.40). Both Teams to score looks priced correctly with NO at (1.73) and this maybe best left alone.

1st Goal to be scored after 23 mins (1.95) featured in 6 of Manchester United's last 10 home to similar opponents and in 6 of Fulham's last 10 away games against similar opposition.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

1st Goal to be scored after 23 mins (1.95)

Saturday 24 March 2012

Premier League Betting Value Analysis (March 25th)



WEST BROM v NEWCASTLE (Sunday 16:00pm Sky Sports 1)


Stats Analysis


West Brom are available here at (2.30) this offers no value and in the head to heads they have only beaten Newcastle at home once in the last 5 matches. They have though had some good recent results including the 4-0 thrashing of Sunderland and the win against Chelsea. 

The Draw is priced at (3.40) and must be considered strongly here

Newcastle (3.50) looks good value to the ratings although Newcastle have only won 3 times in the last 10 away at similar opponents. If you do fancy Newcastle +0 Goals Asian Handicap (2.45) looks value and keeps the draw on side and for a safer option +0.25 goals Asian Handicap at (2.03).

Its difficult to make a case either way for the Over/Unders, and the bookies seem to have this priced up correctly. Under 2.5 goals (2.00). Both Teams to score also looks mixed and again maybe best left alone.

The Half Time Draw holds some interest and value, its featured in 4 of the last 6 West Brom home games against similar opponents and also in 4 of the last 8 Newcastle away games against similar opponents. Half Time Draw (2.25)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The Draw (3.40)

Friday 23 March 2012

Premier League Betting Value Analysis (March 24th)


CHELSEA v SPURS (Saturday 12:45pm Sky Sports 2)

Stats Analysis

Chelsea are priced at (1.95) which looks value considering Chelsea's recent head to head record with 4 wins in the last 5 and Spurs away record to similar opposition where they have lost 5 of the last 8. To improve the price back Chelsea to win by 1 or 2 goals, this has been the margin in all 8 of Chelsea's last 8 victories against similar opposition and the margin in 4 of the last 5 Spurs defeats. Chelsea to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.40)

The Draw available at (3.60) looks value and in a game which is a must win for both sides must be strongly considered.

Spurs (4.33) looks priced about right, if you do fancy Spurs back +0.50 Goals on the Asian Handicap which holds value at (2.03).

As for goals Over 2.5 Goals is priced at (1.80) which is value having featured in 8 of Chelsea's last 10 home games to similar opponents and also in 6 of Spurs last 10 away games to similar opponents. Both Teams to score looks mixed and there is little value in the price of (1.66), so probably best left alone

Finally there could be interest in the Half Time draw, this has featured in 6 of the last 10 Chelsea home games against similar opponents and 3 of the last 4 Spurs away games against similar opposition. Half Time Draw (2.25)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Chelsea to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.40) 

STOKE v MANCHESTER CITY (Saturday 17:30pm ESPN)

Stats Anlysis

Stoke are priced to win here at (6.00) which holds value, as does +0.75 Goals on the Asian handicap at (2.10). Stoke have only lost 3 of last 10 at home to similar opponents.

The Draw is available at (3.80) which holds some value, but not that much appeal

Manchester City are priced up at (1.62) which holds no value. Dutch Man City to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.14) 6 of Man City's last 8 away victories have come via the 1 or 2 goal margin. Stoke have not lost by more than 2 goals at home in the last 2 seasons.

As for goals Under 2.5 at (1.85) looks to hold some value, 2 or less goals has featured in 7 of Stoke' s last 10 at home to similar opposition, also in 7 of Manchester City's last 10 away games against similar opponents. Both Teams to score looks like one to avoid as it priced correctly at (2.00) the pair.

The Half Time Draw again could interest featuring in all the last 5 Manchester City away games against similar opponents and priced at a healthy looking (2.25)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutch Manchester City to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.14)

BetsLayer Non-TV Value Highlights


Arsenal v Aston Villa = Dutch Arsenal to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.02)
Bolton v Blackburn = Bolton to win (2.30)
Liverpool v Wigan = Dutch Liverpool to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.00)
Swansea v Everton = The Draw (3.40)
Sunderland v QPR = Over 2.5 goals (2.00)
Norwich v Wolves = Norwich to win (1.80)



Tuesday 20 March 2012

Premier League Betting Value Analysis (March 21st)


MANCHESTER CITY v CHELSEA (Wednesday 19.45pm Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Manchester City are priced at (1.91) and with an excellent home record this is great value and City must win to keep the pressure on their neighbours at the top of the Premier League. To improve the price further Dutch Manchester City to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.30), 6 of the last 7 victories against similar opponents have come via this margin has have all of the last 10 Chelsea defeats against similar opposition..

The Draw is available at (3.60) this offers no real value but should be considered in what will be a tight game with so much at stake for both sides.

Chelsea are available at (4.50) and this offers no value or interest. If you do fancy Chelsea to get something  then +0.50 Goals on the Asian Handicap is probably the best option. +0.50 Goals on the Asian Handicap (2.16)

As for goals Over 2.5 at (1.91) holds good value featuring in 12 of Man City's last 15 home matches and also featured in 5 of Chelsea's last 6 away games to similar opponents. Both Teams to Score looks mixed, with No priced at (1.91) having featured in only 2 of Man City's last 10 at home to similar opponents, but not as strongly for Chelsea.

Finally for something a bit different try the 2nd Half to be Highest Scoring (2.10), this looks to offer some value featuring in 5 of Man City's last 8 at home to similar opponents although again the stats are mixed and it doesn't feature as strongly for Chelsea.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Manchester City to win (1.91)

Monday 19 March 2012

Premier League Betting Value Analysis (March 20th)



BLACKBURN v SUNDERLAND

Stats Analysis


There is no real value about Blackburn's price here (2.50), in a game with a decent draw bias it makes sense to back +0 goals on the Asian Handicap at (1.73). The draw which must be a strong contender is priced at (3.40).

Sunderland (3.00) offers value given their improved form and W5 D2 L3 record away to similar opponents, FA cup fatigue should be considered though. If you fancy Sunderland to do well +0 Goals Asian Handicap (2.25) looks value.

As for goals, Over 2.5 (2.00) looks good value and has featured in 10 of Blackburn's last 15 at home and also in 5 of Sunderland's last 7 away games to similar opponents. Both teams to score looks mixed, featuring in 11 of the last 15 for Blackburn, but in only 7 of the last 15 Sunderland away games, priced at (1.72) its one to leave alone.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The draw (3.40)

Saturday 17 March 2012

Premier League Betting Value (March 18th)


WOLVES v MANCHESTER UNITED (Sunday 13.30pm Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Wolves are priced at (10.0), +1.5 Goals Asian Handicap holds more value at (1.90). Wolves only lost by 2 or more goals in 2 of their last 10 at home to similar opponents and Man United have only won 4 of last 10 away to similar opposition by 2 or more goals.

The draw is priced at (5.00) and this holds some small value but not really that much attraction

Manchester United are priced at (1.36) which looks right. To improve the value and price Dutch Manchester United to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.08) 4 of last 5 away victories to similar opponents have come via this margin.

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more, but the market has over reacted and any value is in the Unders at (2.60). Both Teams to Score (1.91) featured in 6 of Wolves last 10 home games against similar opponents including all the last 4, also seen in 6 of Manchester United's last 10 away games against similar opposition.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Wolves +1.5 Goals Asian Handicap (1.90)

NEWCASTLE v NORWICH (Sunday 16.00 pm Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis 
  
Newcastle are priced (1.80) which looks priced about right. Dutch Newcastle to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.18), 6 of Newcastle's last 7 home victories have come via the 1 or 2 goal winning margin.

The draw is priced at (3.80) and must be considered in what will be a tightly fought game.

Norwich are available at (5.50) +0.75 Goals Asian Handicap makes sense and is (1.92).

As for goals, Over 2.5 at (1.87) holds value and has featured in 7 of Newcastle's last 10 at home to similar opponents and in 9 of Norwich's last 15 away games. Over 1.5 in the 1st Half (2.62) This has featured in 7 of Newcastle's last 10 at home to similar opponents.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutch Newcastle to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.18)

Friday 16 March 2012

Premier League Betting Value Analysis (March 17th)



FULHAM v SWANSEA

Value highlights

Fulham price looks about right (1.90), another option is to back on the Asian handicap -0.75 goals (2.14) Fulham have won by 2 goals in 4 of the last 8 against similar opponents and Swansea have lost their last 2 away to similar opponents by the same margin.

The draw holds some value (3.50)

As for goals, 3 or more has featured in 10 of the last 15 Fulham home games and in 4 of the last 5 against similar opponents. Over 2.5 goals (2.10)

BetsLayer Value Selection

Fulham to win -0.75 goals Asian Handicap (2.14)


WIGAN v WEST BROM

Value highlights

Wigan price looks a little short (3.00), +0 Goals Asian Handicap (2.16) offers some value as Wigan have only lost 3 of 10 home games to similar opposition and West Brom have only won 4 of their last 10 away to similar opponents.

The draw holds some value (3.40)

West Brom price holds some value (2.62), but makes sense to keep the draw onside +0 goals on the Asian Handicap (1.97)

As for goals, 3 or more has featured in 8 of the last 10 West Brom away games against similar opponents but is more mixed with Wigan. Over 2.5 goals at (2.00) holds some small value. Both teams to score has featured in 6 of the last 10 against similar opponents for both sides, but looks short at (1.73)

BetsLayer Value Selection

The Draw (3.40)

Tuesday 13 March 2012

Liverpool v Everton - Premier League Betting Value (March 13th)


LIVERPOOL v EVERTON (Tuesday 20:00 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis 

Liverpool have won just four of their opening 13 Premier League home matches and go into this game having taken only 10 from the last 33 points available. There looks to be little value in their current price of (1.80). If you do fancy Liverpool to win it makes sense to Dutch them to win by 1 or 2 goals, this has been the margin in 5 of the last 6 wins against similar opponents and in all 3 of Everton's last 3 defeats to similar opposition. Liverpool to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.14).

The draw is available at (3.6), which must be considered as there is a strong draw bias to this game, Liverpool having drawn 8 of their 13 home games this season.

The Toffees are on a seven-match unbeaten run, but have not won at a side higher than them in the league table. Everton are priced at (5.50) which holds a small amount of value, especially given their seven match unbeaten run with 3 wins and 4 draws. If you do fancy Everton to continue the run it makes sense to keep the draw on side and back (2.10) +0.5 Goals on the Asian Handicap.

As for goals, there appears to be no real value in the market, with a weighting towards 2 or less goals, but this is reflected in the prices with Under 2.5 goals available at (1.81). Both teams to score is also priced about right, having featured 5 of the last 10 games for both sides against similar opposition and available to back at (2.00)

Finally there is some value in going for the Half Time draw, this has featured in 5 of the last 10 for both sides against similar opponents and in all 4 of Liverpool's last 4 home games. Half Time draw (2.20)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Half Time draw (2.20)

Monday 12 March 2012

Arsenal v Newcastle - Premier League Betting Value (March 12th)


ARSENAL v NEWCASTLE (Monday 20:00 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Arsenal are looking for a fifth successive Premier League victory and go into this game in confident mood, they are priced at (1.44) which looks a little short against the ratings. If you do fancy Arsenal there could be some legs in going with the -1.5 Goals Asian Handicap (2.10) this offers value and 4 of the last 7 Arsenal victories against similar opposition have been by 2 or more goals, as have all the last 6 Newcastle defeats. For a safer option try the -1.25 Goals which means you only lose half your stake if Arsenal win by 1 goal, priced at (1.91)

The draw is priced at (5.25) and this offers good value and should be considered

Newcastle have lost three of their last four away matches in the Premier League and have only 1 win in their last 10 away against similar opposition, also taking just one point from nine in visits to London this season. Newcastle are available at a healthy looking (8.00). If you do fancy Newcastle it would be worth considering +1.25 Goals Asian Handicap (2.12). Arsenal win by a single goal you receive half of the odds or even +1.5 goals at (1.88).

As for goals there is bias to 3 or more, this has featured in 11 of the last 15 Arsenal home games and in 9 of the last 15 Newcastle away games. Over 2.5 goals is priced at a restrictive (1.61). Both Teams to score has featured in 9 of the last 15 home and away games for both sides but again looks priced about right at (1.83)

Finally the Half Time draw looks a good value option having featured in 7 of the last 9 Arsenal home games against similar opponents and also in 5 of Newcastle's last 10 away to similar opposition. Half Time draw is priced at (2.50).

BetsLayer Value Selection

Half Time draw (2.50)

Sunday 11 March 2012

Premier League Betting Value (March 11th)



NORWICH v WIGAN (Sunday 16:00pm Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis


Wigan are really struggling at the moment and the defeat last weekend led to crisis talks between manager and chairman, which doesn't bode well for a tough trip to Norfolk. Norwich have lost only 4 times at home and are available at (1.96) which looks about right to the ratings. If you do fancy Norwich to win Dutch Norwich to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.30) makes good sense as this has been the margin in all 5 of Norwich's home wins and also in 8 of Wigan's last 10 away defeats to similar opponents.

The draw is available at a healthy looking (3.80) which can't be discounted

Wigan are available at (4.50) which offers no value and not much appeal. If you do fancy Wigan it would be wise to keep the draw on side and back +0.5 Goals Asian Handicap (2.00)

As for goals there is a strong bias for 3 or more, Over 2.5 goals is priced at (1.83) which looks good value and has been seen in 10 of Wigan's last 15 away games including last 8. Both teams to score looks another strong option having featured in 7 of the last 10 Norwich home games and in 7 of the last 8 Wigan Away game. Both teams to score (1.73)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Norwich to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.30)

BetsLayer non-TV highlights

Manchester United v West Brom = 2nd Half Highest Scoring (2.10)
Swansea v Manchester City = Manchester City to win by 1 or 2 goals (1.95)

Friday 9 March 2012

Premier League Betting Value Analysis (March 10th)



BOLTON v QPR (Saturday 12:45pm Sky Sports 2)

Stats Analysis

With both these sides staring down the barrel of relegation this is a real 6-pointer and the odds available on the home win certainly don't offer much appeal especially with no form to back them up. Bolton have won just twice at the Reebok this season and have the second worst home record in the Premier League. Bolton are priced at (2.50). If you do fancy them to not lose this game it makes some sense to back -0.25 Goals on the Asian Handicap (2.15) if its a draw you lose half of the stake. 

The draw is available at (3.40) which is priced about right, but it such an important game for both sides it must be considered

QPR have not really seen the expected upturn in form since Mark Hughes was installed as manager, but their away form does give a glimmer of hope here, they have won 3 times on the road and have lost narrowly in recent away visits to Arsenal and Newcastle and a draw at Villa Park. QPR are available at (3.25) which doesn't hold much value and looks about right. If you do fancy QPR it makes sense to keep the draw on side, back +0 Goals on the Asian Handicap (2.15)

As for goals, there is a bias to 3 or more, this has featured in 9 of the last 15 Bolton home games and in 5 of the last 7 QPR away games against similar opponents. Over 2.5 goals is available at a value price of (1.93). Both teams to score has featured 4 of the last 7 Bolton home games against similar opponents and in all the last 5 QPR games against similar opposition. The price looks short though at (1.67)

There looks to be some good value in taking Bolton to win the first half, QPR have lost the first half in 5 of the last 7 games against similar opponents. Bolton to win the first half (3.00)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals (1.95)

EVERTON v SPURS (Saturday 17:30pm ESPN)

Stats Analysis

Spurs come into this game still reeling from the five goals conceded against Arsenal and the home defeat to Manchester United, maybe the Harry for England campaign has caused a few ripples of uncertainty in the squad. To add to this Everton generally get stronger as the season progresses and also have a good record against the top sides. They have already beaten both Man City and Chelsea at home and have only lost 3 in last 10 at home to similar opposition. Everton are available at (3.00) and if you do fancy them it makes sense to keep the draw on side, Everton 0 Goals on the Asian Handicap (2.19).

The draw is priced at (3.30) which holds no real value however this must be a good option, especially when looking at the head to heads with 3 of the last 5 at Goodison Park being level at fulltime.

Spurs are available at (2.50) which offers some value, however it does make sense to keep the draw with you and back -0.25 Goals on the Asian Handicap (2.08). If the game is drawn you lose half your stake.

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more, this has been the outcome in 5 of the last 10 Everton home games against similar opposition and in 7 of the last 10 Spurs away games generally and against similar opponents. Over 2.5 goals is good value at (2.10). Both teams to score looks more mixed featuring strongly for Spurs in 8 of the last 10 games against similar opponents, but has not featured in the last 5 Everton home games against similar opposition. Both Teams to Score (1.80)

Finally there looks to be some good value in the Half time draw, this has featured in 6 of the last 10 games for both sides against similar opponents. Half time draw (2.10)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Half time draw (2.10)


BetsLayer non-TV Value Highlights


Aston Villa V Fulham = Under 2.5 goals (1.85)
Chelsea v Stoke = Chelsea win to nil (2.00)
Sunderland v Liverpool = Sunderland +0.5 Goals Asian handicap (1.94)
Wolves v Blackburn = Over 2.5 goals (1.80)

Saturday 3 March 2012

Premier League Betting Value (March 4th)



NEWCASTLE v SUNDERLAND (Sunday 12.00 ESPN)


Stats Analysis

In what should be a classic North East derby an inform Newcastle welcome a Martin O'Neill managed Sunderland who have averaged 1.83 points per game since he took over. Newcastle look good value here at (2.20) but it should be highlighted they do have a poor home win ratio when playing similar sides, winning only 2 from the last 10 games.

The draw is priced at (3.40) and this holds some decent value in what will be a tough game to call, there is a strong draw bias and Newcastle have drawn 6 of the last 10 home games against similar opponents.

Sunderland are priced at (3.90) and although this looks short to the ratings, as above Sunderland are much improved since the arrival of Martin O’Neill. If you do fancy Sunderland to do well then it makes sense to keep the draw on side and Sunderland can be backed +0.5 goals on the Asian Handicap at (1.80)

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more goals and this has been seen in 11 of their last 15 home games and in 8 of the last 15 Sunderland away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.00) which looks a good solid price given the above. Both teams have scored in 7of Newcastle's last 10 home games to similar opponents at (1.73) it looks short though especially when looking at Sunderland's record with Both Teams scoring in only 2 of their last 10 against similar opponents.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The draw (3.40)

FULHAM v WOLVES (Sunday 14.05 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Wolves have already beaten Fulham at Molineux this season, but Fulham are a tough side to beat at Craven Cottage. They look priced about right though at (1.6). If you do fancy Fulham perhaps taking them at (2.00) is worth a look at on the Asian Handicap -1, their last 3 home victories against similar opponents have been by 2 or more goals.

The draw can be backed at (3.90) and this offers some value

Wolves can be backed at (6.50) which is priced just below value according to the ratings. If you do fancy Wolves your best option is perhaps on the Asian Handicap +1 goal at (1.92) 

As for goals there has been 3 or more in 10 of Fulham's last 15 home games (6 from the last 10 against similar opponents) and in 9 of Wolves last 15 away games (7 from the last 10 similar opposition). Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.90). Both Teams to Score has been seen in 10 of the last 15 Fulham home games and in 12 of the last 15 Wolves away games, so looks very solid at (1.83)

There appears to be some solid value in the Over 1.5 goals in the first half with 2 first half goals being seen in 5 of both sides last 10 against similar opposition, so a price of (2.88) is very tempting.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Both Teams to Score (1.83).. for a longer odds option try Over 1.5 goals in the first half (2.88)

SPURS v MANCHESTER UNITED (Sunday 16.10 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Despite the loss at the Emirates, Spurs are enjoying a fantastic season, they can be backed here at (3.00) and this is priced about right. There is though a strong draw bias and Spurs can be backed +0 goals at (2.05) which is effectively a draw no bet wager.

As above there is a strong draw bias to this game and 3 of the last 5 head to heads have ended in a draw. Both sides have also drawn 5 of their last 10 against similar opponents. The draw is available at (3.40)

Manchester United come to White Hart Lane with a decent record being unbeaten on the last 5 visits. They can be backed at (2.50) and this is priced about right, maybe a little short. If you do fancy Manchester United it makes sense to keep the draw on side and Manchester United can be backed +0 goals at (1.86).

As for goals there is certainly a bias to 3 or more where Spurs are concerned and this has been seen in 7 of the last 10 home games against similar opponents. But priced at (1.73) it looks like the value is on the under side of the market. Both Teams to score also looks one to leave alone at (1.61).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The draw (3.40)

Friday 2 March 2012

Premier League Betting Value (March 3rd)


BetsLayer non-TV Value highlights

QPR v Everton = Half time draw (2.10)
Stoke v Norwich = Lay Stoke (1.95)
West Brom v Chelsea = Dutch Chelsea victory by 1 or 2 goals (2.15)
Wigan v Swansea = Draw (3.30)
Blackburn v Aston Villa = 1st half highest scoring (3.20)
Manchester City v Bolton = Man City to win both halves (2.10)



LIVERPOOL v ARSENAL (Saturday 12.45pm Sky Sports 2)

Stats Analysis

Liverpool are unbeaten at home this season and have a solid record against similar opposition losing only once in the last 10 games. They can be backed at (2.05) which is very much inline with the ratings. If you do fancy Liverpool to win, the win by 1 or 2 goals makes good sense as 4 of Liverpool's 5 home wins against similar opponents and  6 of Arsenal's last 7 away defeats have been by the 1 or 2 goal margin. Dutching the Liverpool win by 1 or 2 goals pays (2.40)

There is a strong draw bias to this game and Liverpool have drawn 7 of their last 9 home games. The draw can be backed at (3.60) which offers value and is an attractive option.

Arsenal are available at (4.00) and this holds no real value. Arsenal have though won 4 of their last 5 away to similar opponents so they should be considered. If you do fancy Arsenal to do well then it would be wise to keep the draw on side and Arsenal can be backed +0.5 goals on the Asian Handicap at (1.91)

As for goals there are some mixed stats between these two sides. However there is a strong bias to 3 or more goals with Arsenal and 9 of their last 10 matches away to similar opponents have seen 3 or more goals. Over 2.5 goals is available at (1.91) and this price is a value option.

Both teams to score looks a strong option and this has been seen in 8 of Liverpool's opening 12 home games this season and 11 of Arsenals last 15 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.73) and this looks priced with some small value.

Finally in what will be a hard fought game, there could be some good value backing the half time draw, this has been seen in 7 of the last 9 Liverpool home games and in 5 of the last 8 Arsenal away games. Half Time draw (2.20)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Half Time draw (2.20)