New Years Day Premier League Value (January 1st, 2012)

Happy New Year to anyone who may pop over to read the Betslayer analysis, here's to a great 2012. 
 
WEST BROM v EVERTON

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is some value in backing West Brom to win (2.63) they do have a decent home record to similar rated sides which reads W5 D1 L4. There is a strong draw bias to this game and the draw is value at (3.40). If you do fancy West Brom to do well then keeping the draw on side and backing on the Asian Handicap + 0 goals at (1.91) makes sense.

Everton can be backed at (2.80) this price does not really offer much value but Everton do have a reasonable record away to similar rated sides which reads W3 D4 L3. If you do fancy Everton to do well then again you are best keeping the draw on side and Everton can be backed at +0 goals on the Asian Handicap at (2.00)

As for goals there is value in 3 or more, there has been +2.5 goals in 8 of the last 11 WBA home matches against similar rated teams and infact +3.5 goals in 5 of the last 10 WBA such matches. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.12). Both teams to score looks of interest but is priced with not much value as both teams have scored in 6 of West Brom's last 10 home games to similar rated sides and in 4 of Everton's last 8 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.83)

Trade Zone Value

Early goals could feature in this game. There has been a goal scored before 25 minutes in 12 of West Brom's last 16 home games and in 7 of Everton's last 10 away to similar rated sides. The first goal of the game to be scored before 25 Minutes can be backed at (2.00).

BetsLayer Value Highlight 

The Draw (3.4)

SUNDERLAND v MAN CITY

Stats Analysis

Sunderland can be backed at (7.00) and this does not make for much appeal. However with Martin O'Neill in charge Sunderland may be in a better position to do well. If you do fancy Sunderland then they can be backed on the Asian handicap +1 goal at (2.08). The draw is priced at (4.40) and this offers no real value.

Manchester City have won 5 of the last 8 away matches against similar rated sides teams, the ratings are suggesting that even at (1.53) Manchester City are still value to win this game. If you do fancy them to win this game then dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals looks a good option as Sunderland could be hard to break down. Sunderland have lost 12 of the last 13 home defeats by the 1 or 2 goal margin and Manchester City have won 6 of their last 8 away victories against similar rated sides by this margin. Dutching Manchester City to win by 1 or 2 goals pays (2.04).

As for goals there are some mixed stats here and although it points to 3 or more goals this offers no real value at (1.73). Indeed when Sunderland have hosted top rated sides there has only been 3 or more goals scored in 3 of the 10 matches. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.20) and looks to offer value. Both teams to score looks reasonable as both teams have scored in 10 of Sunderland's last 15 home games and in 9 of Manchester Citys last 15 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.83)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutch Manchester City to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.04)

Premier League Betting Value (December 31st)

MANCHESTER UNITED v BLACKBURN

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting there is no value in backing Manchester United to win at (1.17) and this looks a little on the short side even accounting for Manchester Uniteds very impressive W9 D1 L0 record at home to similar rated sides. Manchester United have had W/W double results in 12 of the last 14 home matches against low rated teams. Manchester United HT/FT (1.5). Alternatively Manchester United as the only team to score at (1.73) is not a bad shout, they have won 7 of their last 10 home victories against similar rated sides to nil so this looks an option.

Rovers have lost 11 of 18 Premier League games this season and have lost by two or more goals in 10 of the last 15 trips to top rated teams. Blackburn can be backed at (26.00) and this looks about right. If you do fancy Blackburn to do well then they can be backed on the Asian Handicap +2 goals (2.20). The draw is available at (7.50) and it does offer value, but little attraction.

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more however we would not suggest getting involved in this market as Over 2.5 goals can be  backed at a very short (1.44). Both teams to score looks to offer some value and this can be backed at a resonable looking (2.50). Both teams have scored in 13 of Blackburn's last 15 away games and in 5 of their last 9 away to top rated sides. It has also been seen in 5 of the last 10 against similar rated sides and in 3 of the last 5 at Old Trafford.

The 2nd half has been the highest scoring half in 7 of Manchester United's last 10 at home to similar rated sides and in 5 of Blackburn's last 8 away to top rated sides. The 2nd half to be the highest scoring can be backed at 6/5 (2.20)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The 2nd half to be the highest scoring (2.20)
 
ARSENAL v QPR 

Stats Analysis

Arsenal have won 14 of the last 16 home matches against low rated teams, there is though little value in their price of (1.29). Dutching Arsenal to win by 1 or 2 goals makes some sense as it has been the margin in 6 of the last 8 home victories against low rated sides. Arsenal to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.00)

QPR have lost 5 of their 9 away matches, there though value in their price of (15.00). The Draw is (6.00) and also offers value but not really much attraction. If you do fancy QPR then backing on the Asian Handicap +2 goals makes sense at (1.85).

As for goals there is bias to 2 or less, this has been the outcome in 10 of the last 15 Arsenal home games and in 5 of their last 10 against similar rated sides, also in 2 of the 3 for QPR against similar rated sides. There looks good value about the price. Under 2.5 goals (2.70). Both teams to score looks unlikely, featuring in only 6 of the last 15 Arsenal home games an 4 from 10 against similar rated teams. No on Both Teams to score (1.9)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

No on Both Teams to score (1.9)

BOLTON v WOLVES

Stats Analysis

Bolton have scored first in 9 of the last 12 home matches against similar rated team, but in their odds to win there is very little value (2.25)

Wolves have lost 12 of the last 19 away matches. There is though value in their price to win this game (3.50). There is good value in the draw at (3.60) in a game neither team can afford to lose.

As for goals there are strong stats for 3 or more, this has been seen in 10 of the last 15 home games and in 9 of the last 15 away games. Over 2.5 goals (1.85)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals (1.85)

CHELSEA v ASTON VILLA

Stats Analysis

Chelsea have won 12 of the last 16 home matches, but there is no value about their price at (1.29)

Aston Villa have lost by two or more goals in 6 of their last 8 trips to top rated teams. There is value about their price at (13.00). The draw is available at (6.00) and offers value.

As for goals there is definite bias to 3 or more, having been seen in 12 of the last 15 home games and 9 from 15 away games, 9 from 10 against top rated sides. Overs is value at (1.67). Both teams to score looks great value as this has been the outcome in 11 from 15 for both home and away and also in 7 from the last 10 in both respective home and away against similar rated teams. Both Teams to score (2.10).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Both Teams to score (2.10)

NORWICH v FULHAM

Stats Analysis

Norwich have won 4 of the last 7 home matches and they have scored in 15 of 18 league games. There is some value in their price here (2.75)

Fulham have lost 11 of the last 20 away games when conceding and 9 of 17 away matches against similar rated teams. There is no real value in their price (2.75). The draw is priced at (3.40) and offers some value in what looks a tight game.

As for goals its difficult to assess, there is a bias to 2 or less, but this is mainly down to Fulham who have seen this in 12 of the last 15 away and in 8 of the last 10 away to similar rated sides. Under 2.5 (1.96). Both teams scored in all 4 of Norwich's games against similar rated teams and 5 of the last 10 Fulham away matches against similar rated sides, there doesn't look much value in the price at (1.77) though.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The draw at (3.40) 

STOKE v WIGAN

Stats Analysis

Stoke have scored first in 12 of 15 home matches against low rated teams, the ratings show there is not much value in Stokes current price (1.67). If you do fancy Stoke to win then dutching thrm to win by 1 or 2 goals makes sense as 4 of their last 5 home victories has been by this margin. Stoke to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.05)

Wigan have lost 7 of the last 8 away matches against top-half teams. There is though value in their price of (5.50), If you do fancy Wigan then it might be wise to keep the draw onside on the Asian Handicap + 0.5 (2.15). The draw is priced at a value (3.80)

As for goals there doesn't seem to be any standout stats, the price available is about right. Under 2.5 (1.95). Both teams to score looks a little more attractive, this has been seen in 8 of the last 15 home games and in 7 of Wigan's last 10 away against similar rated sides. Both teams to score (1.9)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Stoke to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.05)

SWANSEA v SPURS

Stats Analysis 

Swansea have the best home defensive record in the division with just three goals conceded, but coming up against a Spurs side in brilliant form will certainly test their home record. They are though value (5.50) to win this game.

Victory for Spurs would equal their record total away wins in a Premier League season of seven, their price to win this game is about right (1.72). The Draw at (3.8) is no real value, but could be considered. Spurs have drawn the first half in 6 of their 8 away matches against similar rated teams.(2.40)

There have been -2.5 goals in 7 of the 9 Swansea home matches, and there has been Over 2.5 goals in only 4 of Spurs last 10 away games to similar rated sides. Under 2.5 goals (1.97). 

BetsLayer Value Highlight 

Under 2.5 goals (1.97)

Liverpool v Newcastle - Premier League Betting Value (Dec 30th)

LIVERPOOL v NEWCASTLE (Friday 19.45 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Liverpool are unbeaten at home this season with three wins and six draws in their nine league games, but they have had too many home draws against inferior oppsition. The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in their current price at (1.57). Newcastle are a tough nut to crack away from home and if you do fancy Liverpool to win then the best option is to dutch them to win by 1 or 2 goals, all 3 of Liverpoool's home victories this season have come via this margin as have all 5 of Newcastle's previous 5 away defeats. Dutching the Liverpool win by 1 or 2 goals (2.00).

Newcastle can be backed at (8.00) and this looks to offer good value. If you do fancy Newcastle to do well then the best option is to keep the draw on side and Newcastle can be backed on the Asian Handicap +1 goal at (2.10). The draw is priced at (4.50) and this looks to offer some value especially given Liverpool's recent home form which has seen then draw 5 of their last 6 games at home.

As for goals, there certainly seems some value in backing 2 or less, as this has been seen in 9 of Liverpool's last 15 home games and in 5 from 9 Newcastle aways + 4 of Newcastle's last 5 away to similar rated sides. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.00). Both teams to score is an option given Liverpool's recent form where both teams have found the net in 7 of their last 9 home games and in 6 of Newcastle's last 7 away games. Both teams to score (2.10)

Trade Zone Value 

There has been a goal scored after 74 minutes in only 3 of Liverpool's last 10 at home to similar rated sides and in only 1 of Newcastle's last 6 away to similar rated sides. The last goal of the game to be scored before 74 minutes (1.91).

BetsLayer Value Highlight 

Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.00)

Boxing Day (cont) + Premier League Betting Value (December 27th)

STOKE v ASTON VILLA (Monday 19.45 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Stoke occupy their best position at Christmas in 37 years, the ratings show that there isn't much value in backing Stoke to win this game. They do though have an excellent record at home to similar rated sides which reads W8 D0 L2. Stoke to win (2.05).

There is a fairly strong draw bias to this game and the draw can be backed at (3.50). Aston Villa can be backed at (4.20) and this looks to offer value, Alex McLeish's side have though taken just eight points from the last 30 available and have won just once (v Norwich) in eight games against top-half clubs so far this season. If you do fancy Villa to do well you are certainly best keeping the draw on side and Aston Villa can be backed +0.5 goals on the Asian handicap (2.00).

As for goals there could be some value in backing Over 2.5 goals and this has been seen in 8 of the last 15 Stoke home games and 10 of the last 15 Villa away games. Over 2.5 goals (2.10). The same can be said with both teams to score as both teams have scored in 9 of Stoke's last 15 home games and in 12 of Aston Villa's last 15 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.85)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals (2.10) 

ARSENAL v WOLVES

Stats Analysis

The Gunners have dropped just four points when playing at home this season, there is though no value about their price here at (1.25). If you do fancy Arsenal it could make sense to back them to win by 1 or 2 goals, 7 of the last 9 home wins and 7 from the last 10 against similar rated teams has been by this margin. Arsenal to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.05)

Arsenal have drawn the first half in 6 of the last 8 home matches (6 of 9 against low rated teams) as have Wolves in 4 of the last 8 away games. HT draw is priced at a value (3.00)

Wolves' only away win this term came on the opening day at Blackburn. They are winless in seven subsequent matches. The ratings though suggest that at (15.00) there is value in Wolves price here. If you do think Wolves can do well here, it could certainly pay to back the +2 goals on the Asian Handicap market at (1.9). There is good value about the draw at (6.5) but with both sides records against similar rated sides this doesn't hold much attraction.

As for goals, there is a slight bias to 3 or more, this has featured in 5 of Arsenal's last 10 against similar rated sides and 9 of the last 15 Wolves away games, 6 from 10 against similar rated sides. Overs at (1.59) though offers no value and infact is bringing Unders into good value territory, maybe useful for time decay trading inrunning. Both Teams to score looks priced about right (2.00) with it featuring in 50% of each sides rated form.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Arsenal to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.05)

SWANSEA v QPR (Tuesday 17:00 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

All of Swansea's four Premier League wins have come at the Liberty Stadium, Swansea can be backed at (2.10) to win this match and this is priced about right. Swansea have a strong defensive record at the Liberty Stadium and have only conceded in 2 matches of their 8 at home. It may be worth backing them to win to nil (3.25) as QPR have not scored in any of their last 3 visits to Swansea. As an alternative to this Swansea can be backed at (2.62) to keep a clean sheet.

QPR have lost their last three league games and have won just one in eight, three of their four league victories this season have been achieved away from home though. QPR can be backed at (3.80) and this is priced about right. However if you do fancy QPR to do well then you are certainly best keeping the draw on your side and QPR can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.25 goals at (2.17). The draw is priced at (3.40) is about right, but should be considered.

As for goals there is a bias to 2 goals or under. There have been -2.5 goals in 6 of the 8 Swansea home matches. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.80) No on Both teams to score as above could be good selection at odds of (2.00).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

No on Both Teams to score (2.00)

NORWICH v SPURS (Tuesday 19:30 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Norwich are unbeaten in their last three league games. Norwich are priced at (5.00) and this looks to offer some value. If you do fancy Norwich to do well then your best option is to keep the draw on side and back them +0.5 goals on the Asian Handicap at (2.17). The draw can be backed at (3.80) and this offers some good value.

Spurs are on a good run at the moment and have won 5 of their last 7 away matches. Spurs can be backed at (1.80) to win this match and this doesn't offer much value. If you do fancy Spurs to win dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals would make sense as all 7 of Spurs last 7 away victories have come via this margin as has both of Norwich's home defeats this season. Dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals (2.20)

There have been +2.5 goals in 6 of the last 8 Norwich home matches and in 8 of the last 11 Spurs away matches. Overs is available at a small but still value price (1.67). Both teams have scored in each of Norwich’s last ten matches and have scored in 13 of Norwich's last 15 home games and in 7 of Spurs last 10 away to low rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at a still value (1.67)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutch the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals (2.20)

Boxing Day Premier League Betting Value (December 26th)

MERRY CHRISTMAS to all, hope you all have a great time and that we can find some value to pay for the food and festive drinks!


CHELSEA v FULHAM

Stats Analysis

Chelsea have won 12 of the last 15 home matches, but are no real value to win this game in present form at (1.33)

Fulham have lost 6 of the last 8 away matches against top rated teams and Martin Jol's side have scored the fewest away goals in the Premier League this season, netting only four times in eight matches. At (12.00) however the ratings say there is some slim value in backing Fulham. The draw (5.00) is strong value at these odds if you do fancy Chelsea to slip up again.

Chelsea have Over 2.5 goals 13 of the last 15 home matches and 6 of the last 8 home matches against similar rated sides. Fulham have Over 2.5 goals in 5 of the last 10 matches at top rated sides. Over 2.5 goals is available at (1.75) and at this price doesn't offer much value. Both teams scored in 11 of the last 15 home matches and in 5 of the last 10 away to similar rated sides so at (2.10) this looks to be some value.

Trade Zone Value
Goal after 75th min    (1.91)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Goal after 75th min    (1.91)

LIVERPOOL v BLACKBURN

Stats Analysis

Liverpool have lost just 1 of the last 12 in the league and have conceded just 13 goals this season, the lowest in the league. They have kept clean sheets in their last three matches. The odds are about right at (1.30). If you do fancy the home side it makes sense to back Liverpool to win by 1 or 2 goals as this has been the result in all their home wins this season and Blacburn's last 6 away defeats (2.00)

Blackburn haven't won away from home this season and have lost four of their last five Premier League games, including the last three. They are no value at (13.00) to win this game. If you do fancy Blackburn it could be worth backing on the Asian Handicap +2 goals which has only been beaten 2 in their last 10 away to similar rated sides. Blackburn +2 goals (2.00). The draw at (5.50) is reasonable value, especially given that Liverpool have drawn 4 of the last 10 at home against similar rated sides.

There are some mixed stats on the over / under and it might worth avoiding these markets. Both teams have scored in 6 of the last 8 of Liverpool’s home matches and also in 8 of the last 8 of Blackburn’s away fixtures (10 of 14 against similar rated sides). Both Teams to score is reasonable value at (2.3).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Liverpool to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.00)

MANCHESTER UNITED v WIGAN

Stats Analysis

Manchester United have the joint-most Premier League clean sheets (8) with Swansea, but there is little value in their price of (1.17). They have had W/W in the HT/FT in 11 of the last 13 against low rated sides while Wigan have had L/Ls in 7 of the last 8 away games against top-three finishers. Manchester United  HT/FT is value priced at (1.6)

Wigan are unbeaten in their last five games (W2, D3) but Manchester United and Wigan have met 13 times, and the Red Devils have won every match.At (21.00) there is little value or attraction about the Latics in this game. If you do fancy Wigan to do well the +2 goals on Asian Handicap at (2.5) looks slight value, although United have started to find their scoring boots in the last few games.

As for the goals there is a very strong bias to 3 or more, against similar rated sides, its been the outcome in 8 of the last 10 for United and in 7 of the last 10 for Wigan, but in general it looks a bit short at (1.5). Sir Alex Ferguson's team have scored at least once in all 26 of their matches (all competitions) this season, The Latics have failed to score in six of their 17 matches. There are mixed stats on the Both Teams to score between general and against similar rated sides, with Wigan only having this outcome once in 10 games against top rated sides. No on Both Teams to Score (1.7)

Trade Zone Value
First Goal after 21st min    (1.91)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

First Goal after 21st min    (1.91)

BOLTON v NEWCASTLE

Stats Analysis

Bolton ended a five-match losing streak by beating Blackburn to climb off the foot of the table, but this will be a test of their staying up credentials. There is little value in their currect price (2.63).

Newcastle are winless in six games (D2, L4). They have only taken one point from four matches in December, but have a decent record against similar rated sides winning 5 from the last 10 away games and at (2.88) offer sound value to win this game. The draw is available at (3.4) which is worth consideration but priced about right. Also if you fancy Newcastle there is value in backing them HT/FT as this has been seen in 3 of their last 4 away wins and in 7 of the last 10 Bolton home games. Newcastle/Newcastle HT/FT (5.50)

There have been +2.5 goals scored in 14 of the last 17 Bolton games, 7 from 10 against similar rated sides (22 of 36 at home under Owen Coyle) and in 9 of  the last 12 of Newcastle’s league fixtures. Over 2.5 is available at (1.75). There looks to be some value in the No on both teams to score, this has been seen in 5 from the last 10 Bolton home games against similar opposition and in 6 of the last 10 Newcastle away against similar opposition. No on Both to Score (2.60).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

No on Both to Score (2.60) 

SUNDERLAND v EVERTON 

Stats Analysis

Sunderland have won just four home league matches in 2011 but they have lost only one of their last six at home. There is no value about their current price (2.40)

Sunderland have been level at HT in 4 of the last 5 home matches (4 of the last 7 against similar rated teams) as have Everton in 5 of the last 8 away games against similar rated sides. HT draw is priced at (2.2). The draw is priced at (3.45) and looks a good option in a game with no stand out stats either way.

All six of Everton's wins this season have come against sides in the bottom half of the table and at (3.10) they are a value call to win this game. It could make sense to keep the draw on side and back them +0 goals on the Asian Handicap at (2.10).

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more, with 12 of Sunderland's last 15 seeing this outcome, the stats are less strong for Everton, but at (2.20) this still offers value. Both teams to score has some mixed stats, again stronger with Sunderland, looking at the rated form, Both teams have scored in only 4 from the last 10 games so the NO looks value priced at (2.10).

  

Trade Zone Value

1st Goal Before 25 Mins (2.00) 

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The Draw (3.45)

WEST BROM v MAN CITY

Stats Analysis

The ratings are showing there is little value in the Man City price (1.5), if you do fancy City to win it could make sense to back them HT/FT as 4 of the last 6 away wins against similar rated sides have been by this result Man City/Man City HT/FT (2.22).

There is value in West Broms price of (7.5) but they have lost 4 of the last 5 when playing at home against top rated sides. There is also some good value in the draw at (4.75). If you do fancy West Brom it makes sense to keep the draw onside and back +1 goal on the Asian Handicap at (2.25)

There is not much value in the over / under 2.5 market at Overs (1.63). At least four goals have been scored in 3 of the last 3 of WBA’s home matches against top-four teams and in 6 of the last 8 Man City away games and this looks attractive at (2.60). Both teams to score is a solid call with it featuring 10 times in both sides last 15 home and away games, also 4 from 5 for WBA and 7 from 10 for City against similar rated teams. Both Teams to Score (1.85) 

Trade Zone Value  

1st Goal Before 25 Mins (1.85) 

BetsLayer Value Highlight 

Both teams to score (1.85) 

STOKE v ASTON VILLA

Will be added Boxing day morning

Spurs v Chelsea Premier League Betting Value (December 22nd)

SPURS v CHELSEA (Thurs 20.00 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Chelsea have not won at White Hart Lane in their last five visits since a 2-0 victory in 2005. Prior to that they had gone 17 league matches undefeated at White Hart Lane, a run that stretched back to August 1987.

Spurs have won 6 out of 6 home matches and 6 of the last 13 home games against top rated teams while Chelsea have lost 5 of 8 away fixtures against top rated sides. Spurs can be backed at (2.80) and this price offers some value. Looking at the ratings there is a strong draw bias to the game and it could pay to keep this on our side and Spurs can be backed on the Asian Handicap -0.25 goals at (2.30). The draw can be backed at (3.50) and this looks to offer good value.

Chelsea are available at (2.75) and this price does not offer much value. If you do fancy Chelsea to do well then you again could be best keeping the draw on side and back Chelsea on the Asian Handicap +0 goals at (2.04)

As for goals there are some mixed stats here and we would probably stay away from the Over Under / Over 2.5 goals market. Both teams to score looks a solid bet with it featuring in both teams last 15 games 9 times, but at (1.62) there isn't much value.

BetsLayer value highlight 

Spurs on the Asian Handicap -0.25 goals at (2.30)

Premier League Betting Value Analysis (21st December)

WIGAN v LIVERPOOL (Tues 20.00 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Wigan have won just once (against QPR) at home all season. However, they have drawn two of their last three at the DW Stadium including the last gasp 1-1 draw against Chelsea.Wigan have also lost just 7 of the last 22 home games against top half sides.Wigan can be backed at (7.50) and this offers some decent value. If you do fancy Wigan to do well then they can be backed on the Asian Handicap +1 goal at (2.02) and this would certainly be your best option and this offers sound value.

The draw can be backed at (4.00) and this offers some reasonable value given how both sides have performed against similar opposition and Wigan's recent form.

Liverpool are looking for a third successive league win for the first time this season. The ratings are suggesting that there is no real value in backing Liverpool at their current price of (1.57) and in truth their record away to low rated sides is not that great and it reads W3 D3 L4. Liverpool can be backed on the Asian Handicap -1 goal at (1.91) and this makes sense as Wigan have lost 3 of their 4 home defeats by 2 goals or more. Another option is backing Liverpool to win by the HT/FT result as all 4 of Wigan's home defeats this season have come via this result and Liverpool can be backed at (2.40).

As for goals there are some pretty mixed stats and it makes sense to avoid the Over / Under 2.5 goal market. When looking at Both teams to score then both sides have scored in 4 of Wigan's last 6 at home similar rated sides and in 5 of Liverpool's last 8 away to low rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at (2.10) and this offers some value at this price.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Wigan on the Asian Handicap +1 goal at (2.02)

QPR v SUNDERLAND

Stats Analysis

QPR have lost five of their last seven Premier League matches (W1, D1, L5). They have won just one of their eight home league matches this season and have earned more points away than at home. They are available at (2.8) which offers value to the ratings but little attraction.

Sunderland have won only one of their past seven Premier League matches. The Black Cats have won only once away from home this season and have lost their last three away matches, they are priced at (2.8) and this offers little value. The draw at (3.3) offers no real value even though its a good possibility.

6 of the last 8 of QPR’s home games have had -2.5 goals as have 5 of the last 8 of Sunderland’s away fixtures this season (6 of the last 10 against low rated sides). Under 2.5 goals is available at (1.8) and offers some value in a game with very little on show.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Under 2.5 goals (1.8)

 ASTON VILLA v ARSENAL

Stats Analysis

Aston Villa have lost just 4 of the 15 home matches against top rated sides whereas Arsenal have won just 3 of the last 8 away fixtures (7 of the last 18 against similar rated sides). Alex McLeish's side have however won only two of their last nine matches and they have lost three of their last four home league matches. They available at (5.00) and this offers value, but it might be wise to keep the draw onside, Aston Villa can be backed (2.10) on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals. The draw offers good value and is priced at (3.75)

Arsenal's defeat to Manchester City on Sunday was their first league loss in nine games. It was also the first time the Gunners had failed to score in a league game since the second match of the season. Arsenal to win are (1.8) and this price offers little value to the ratings.

Aston Villa have failed to score in four of their past five league games and in truth the stats are mixed where goals are concerned. Both teams have scored in 12 of the last 15 Arsenal away matches and in 9 of the last 10 away at similar rated sides. Both teams to score is available at (1.8) and offers decent value if you feel Aston Villa can improve their recent poor scoring form. Over 2.5 goals is very similar having been seen 13 of the last 15 Arsenal away games and in 9 of the last 10 against similar rated sides. Over 2.5 is available at (1.9) and offers value.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

 Over 2.5 goals (1.9)

 EVERTON v SWANSEA

Stats Analysis

Everton have won just 2 of the 8 home matches this season while Swansea have lost only 3 of 10 league fixtures and just 1 of their 4 away games.The Everton price (1.62) looks short.

The draw can be backed at (3.8) and this offers good value in a game with a strong draw bias.

Swansea have the worst away record in the top flight, although their three draws on the road have all come in the last four matches. Swansea are available at (6.25) and although some value it is probably wise to keep the draw on side and back on the Asian Handicap +1.0 at (1.9) = stake returned if Everton win by a single goal.

As for goals there appears to be little value in the Over/Under markets, but Under 2.5 has been seen in 9 of the last 15 Everton home games and is priced (1.9). Everton have not kept a clean sheet in any of their 11 home games in all competitions this season. Both teams have scored in 7 of the last 15 Everton home games and in 4 from the last 8 Swansea away games and is available at (2.10) which offers value.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Both teams to score (2.10)

MAN CITY v STOKE

Stas Analysis 

Manchester City have a 100% home record in this season's Premier League, winning all eight games and conceding just four goals. At (1.25) though there is no value in their current price. There are a couple of options when looking to get value about Manchester City winning this game. The Manchester City clean is priced at (1.83) win to nil (2.10) (9 from last 14 home wins) and the Man City W/W double result has featured in 8 of the last 10 home matches against similar rated teams while Stoke have had L/L double results in 8 out of 8 away matches against top rated teams and so all these offer value to the ratings. Manchester City HT/FT (1.75)

Stoke are on a club record run of four consecutive Premier League wins but even at (15.0) there is no value in the price, the draw at (6.5) is far better value, but really there can't be much argument for it.

As for goals there are some mixed stats and there is very little value available, Under 2.5 goals is avialable at (2.60) and this offers some value, but with Manchester City's scoring form at home it is not really advised.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Manchester City to win to nil (2.10)

FULHAM v MANCHESTER UNITED

Stats Analysis

After being undefeated in their first seven visits to Fulham in the Premier League, Manchester United have not won any of their last three trips to Craven Cottage. They have though won six of their eight away matches so far this season and at this stage last year they had only won one of their eight away matches. Fulham have won just 4 of the16 games under Martin Jol while Manchester United have won 4 of 4 away fixtures and 4 of the last 4 away matches against similar rated opposition. Manchester United price (1.85) is right to the ratings. If you do fancy Manchester United to win then going for them by dutching 1 or 2 goals makes sense as this has been seen in 6 of the last 8 away victories (2.05)

There is strong value in the draw at (3.8)

Fulham are priced at (5.5) and this is priced about right. If you do fancy Fulham it makes sense to keep the draw on side and to back on the Asian Handicap +0.5 at (2.14)

As for goals there are again some mixed stats and there appears little value in the Over/Under and Both teams to score markets.

Betslayer Value Highlight

The draw (3.8)

NEWCASTLE v WEST BROM

 Stats Analysis

Newcastle are winless in five games (D2, L3) but Alan Pardew's side are unbeaten against opponents in the bottom half of the table (W6, D2), the best record of any club outside the current top three. The price of (1.91) is very much inline with the ratings. If you do fancy Newcastle then there is value on the HT/FT at (3.0), this has featured in 4 of Newcastle's last 6 home wins.

West Brom have lost only one of their last five away matches, the price is as per the ratings (3.50) and with the draw available at (3.6). Newcastle have drawn 7 from the last 15 home games so must be a strong consideration.

Newcastle have had +2.5 goals in 6 of the last 9 home matches against similar rated teams as have WBA in 11 of the last 14 away games under Roy Hodgson (6 of the last 7 against similar rated sides). Over 2.5 goals (1.85)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

 Over 2.5 goals (1.85)

Premier League Betting Value Analysis (December 20th)

WOLVES v NORWICH

Stats Analysis

Wolves and Norwich both let leads slip against Stoke and Everton respectively at the weekend. The odds of (2.10) about the home win here offer little value when compared to the ratings.

The draw is available at (3.6) and offers value in a game with a decent draw bias and is certainly an option to consider. Norwich have let slip 10 points from winning positions this term and it is difficult to see them winning here, but their price of (3.75) is decent value to the ratings. If you do fancy Norwich to do well, it could pay to keep the draw on side and back on the Asian Handicap market +0.5 goals at (1.9)

Wolves have had +2.5 goals in 11 of their 13 league matches (12 from last 15 home) and 6 of the last 10 home matches against similar rated sides, as have Norwich in 10 of the last 15 away fixtures. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.83)

Both teams scored in 10 of the last 15 Wolves home matches matches and in 11 of Norwich's last 15 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.66) and seems a solid option.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals (1.83)

BLACKBURN v BOLTON (Tuesday 8pm Sky Sports 1)

 Stats Analysis

This Lancashire derby always has an edge, tonight the loser could fall off it into the abyss. Bolton are bottom of the Premier League, five points from safety, with Rovers only one place and one point above them. There is little value in the match odds with the home side at (2.10) and Bolton who have lost their last five league games and 13 of their first 16 this season at (3.7). If you do fancy Bolton to do well you are best keeping the draw on side and Bolton can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.25 goals at (2.10)

Rovers have won three of the last four meetings at Ewood Park, drawing the other but with so much at stake for both managers the draw must be a consideration at (3.5) which offers some small value.

There have been +2.5 goals in 6 of the last 8 of Blackburn’s home matches and also in 15 of the last 19 of Bolton’s league fixtures (7 of the last 9 away to low rated sides). Over 2.5 goals is value and available at (1.83). Both teams to score looks likely but a little short at (1.63) with both teams last 15 seeing this outcome 8 times and when looking at recent home and away games, both teams have found the net in 6 of their respective last 10 home and away games against similar opposition.

The 2nd half could see more action as the 2nd half has been the highest scoring in 5 of Blackburn's last 8 home games and in 5 of Bolton's last 8 away games. The 2nd half to be the highest scoring can be backed at (2.10)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

2nd half to be the highest scoring (2.10)

Disaster Recovery - TEN and out? ........Not a chance

There are many things in life that annoy me…..

But the thing that annoys me most is people that are incapable of accepting a losing bet. If that sounds like you then please, do me a favour and stop reading the blog now….

Nobody likes a losing bet and it'd be a little bit worrying if that wasn't the case…But you know what, they happen, and infact you get days like saturday where I amazingly had 10 out of 10 losses across the 3 systems, yes it was frustrating to see so many bets go down to late winners and shock goals…but you know what you have to GET OVER IT!

That may sound a little harsh but:..."it's for your own good".

One of the main factors that sets professional gamblers apart from amateurs is attitude…..Professional gamblers don't screw up everything they've worked on and start again each time they have a losing bet – they take it on the chin, learn from it and move on. (Sunday had 4 out of 5 winners, and the value highlights were again in profit...so imagine if I'd given up/taken the day off...which I did consider after the straight 10 from hell...but I dusted myself off and continued to back the value)

If you can do that, you stand a chance in this game…

If however, you're the sort of person that cancels one week into a four week trial on the basis that the system or service is down a few points, you will NEVER EVER make any money from betting… 

Will do a full review when I get chance in the coming weeks, but the ACCOUNT bets continue to be an impressive 30% ROI, the Premier League value highlights are nicely in profit, Top Draw is just below profit which on what is a long term 'churn' at good odds is not a concern after less than 100 bets..unfortunately Luckylucas Lower League is a way from profit, but sure it will settle, after all backing at value will eventually pay!

Sunday Premier League value analysis (December 18th)

QPR V MANCHESTER UNITED (Sunday 12.00 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

QPR have struggled at home, but could give United a tough time here, infact their two best performances have come when playing the top rated sides, beating Chelsea 1-0 and narrowly losing to Manchester City 2-3. QPR can be backed at (8.00) and this looks to offer some some small value. Manchester United do though have a very strong record away against low rated sides which reads W8 D1 L1. Manchester United can be backed at (1.50) which is about right to the ratings. If you do fancy Manchester United to win this match then dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals would make sense. Indeed they have won 7 of their last 9 matches away to low rated sides by the 1 or 2 goal margin.  Dutching the Manchester United win by 1 or 2 goals (2.00)

The draw is priced at (4.5) and this looks to offer again some small value, given QPR's home form and Uniteds lack of goals.

As for goals there some mixed stats and certainly there is no value in an Over 2.5 goals price of (1.8) QPR have had -2.5 goals in 5 of the last 6 home matches as have Man Utd in 5 of the last 5 away games. Over 2.5 goals (2.12). Both teams to score certainly looks a better option as both teams have scored in 6 of Manchester United's last 8 games away to low rated sides and QPR have found the net in all their last 5 home games. Both teams to score can be backed at (2.00)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutching Manchester United win by 1 or 2 goals (2.00)

ASTON VILLA v LIVERPOOL (Sunday 14.05 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Aston Villa at last showed some passion in their win at Bolton Wanderers, Aston Villa can be backed at (3.80) and this looks to offer some decent value. If you do fancy Aston Villa to do well then it could be wise to keep the draw on side and back on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at (1.90).There is no real value in Liverpool's current price and although they have a decent record at Villa Park only losing 1 from the last 5 the ratings say that there is no real value in backing Liverpool at (2.10) If you do fancy Liverpool to win then dutching them to win by the 1 or 2 goal margin makes sense as none of Aston Villa's last 9 home defeats have been by 3 goals or more. Dutching Liverpool to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.30).

 The draw can be backed at (3.50) and looking at the ratings this must be a strong consideration

As for goals are there is a bias to 2 or less. No more than two goals have been scored in 7 of the last 8 of Aston Villa’s home games against similar rated teams and in 11 of the last 15 of Liverpool’s league games this season. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.75). Both teams have not found the net in 4 of Aston Villa's last 8 home games and 10 of Liverpool's last 15 (6 of Liverpool's last 10 away at similar rated sides). Also both teams have scored in only 1 of the last 5 head to heads at Villa Park the No on both teams to score can be backed at (1.95).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The Draw (3.50)

TOTTENHAM v SUNDERLAND

Stats Analysis

Spurs run of 9 wins from 11 league games came to an end at Stoke and Sunderland enjoyed a home win under Martin O'Neill, but this assignment will surely be tougher for him.Spurs can be backed at (1.40) and this about the right price. Dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals makes sense as all 10 of their last 10 home victories to similar rated sides have come via this margin. Dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals at (2.02)

Spurs have had W/Ws in 5 of the last 5 home matches (11 from last 19 against similar rated sides) while Sunderland have had L/Ls in 7 of the last 10 away games against top rated teams. Spurs HT/FT (2.06)

The draw can be backed at (5.00) and although holds value, there is real attraction given Spurs home form against similar rated sides. Sunderland can be backed at (9.00). However if you do fancy Sunderland to do well then your best option is to back them on the Asian Handicap +1.25 goals at (2.05)

As for goals it may well best to go for 2 or less this has been seen in 7 of Sunderland's last 8 away games to similar rated sides and in 6 of Spurs last 10 at home to similar rated sides. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.40).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutching Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals at (2.02)

MAN CITY v ARSENAL (Sunday 16.10 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there isn't much value in backing Manchester City to win this game. However they do have an excellent home record of late and do have a very good record at home to similar rated sides which reads W6 D1 L3. Manchester City to win via the Half time / Full time result should be considered as this has been the method of victory in 9 of Manchester City's last 9 victories at home to top rated sides and in 5 of Arsenal's last 6 away defeats. Manchester City can be backed at (2.60). Dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals would seem also a sensible option as Arsenal have lost 5 of their last 6 away defeats by this margin to top rated sides (2.22)

Man City have won the first half in 11 of the last 14 home matches while Arsenal have lost the first half in 7 of the last 9 away matches against top rated sides. Man City HT (2.30)

The draw can be backed at (3.80) and isn't really all that attractive. Arsenal can be backed at (5.50) and this offers value. However if you do fancy Arsenal to do well then your best option is to back them on the Asian Handicap +0.75 goals at (2.05)

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more and much depends on whether you expect Arsenal to score or not. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 4/5 (1.80) and this looks reasonable. As for both teams to score there is certainly some value in backing No on both teams to score as both teams have found the net in only 3 of Man Citys last 14 home games against top rated sides. The No on both teams to score can be backed at (2.20)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutch Manchester City to Win by 1 or 2 goals (2.22)

BetsLayer Selections Saturday 17th December

Right here are this weeks selections, lets hope for a good week, not too many selections today, but there will more tomorrow!

BetsLayer ACCOUNT

Newcastle v Swansea - Over 2.5 goals (1.85)
Wigan v Chelsea -  Chelsea/Chelsea HT/FT (2.1)

TOP DRAW

Blackburn v West Brom (3.5)
Wolves v Stoke (3.4)
Doncaster v Leicester (3.65)
Bournemouth v Sheffield Utd (3.5)
Aberdeen v Hibernian (3.5)

Luckylucas Lower League

Sheffield Wednesday v Huddersfield - Sheffield Wednesday to win (2.4)
Bristol City v Nottingham Forest - Bristol City to win (2.3)
Cardiff v Middlesboro - Cardiff to win (2.15)

Premier League Betting Value Analysis (December 17th)

BLACKBURN v WEST BROM

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is no real value in backing Blackburn to win this game however they do have a very good record at home to low rated sides which reads W5 D3 L2. Blackburn can be backed at (2.4). If you do fancy Blackburn to do well then dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals makes sense as 4 of their last 5 home victories have come via this margin as has 4 of West Brom's last 7 away defeats to low rated sides.

The draw can be backed at (3.50) and this offers some good value and is certainly an option to consider

West Brom can be backed at (3.30) and this offers some value. However if you do fancy West Brom to do well then you may want to keep the draw on side and West Brom can be backed on the Asian handicap +0 goals (2.25)

There have been +2.5 goals in 5 of the last 7 Blackburn home matches and they have conceded 2 or more goals in 6 of the last 7 games (4 from the last 4 in the league). There has also been +2.5 goals in 10 of the last 13 of WBA’s away games under Roy Hodgson (7 of the last 9 against low rated sides). Over  2.5 goals can be backed at (1.73) and looks a strong option.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The draw (3.50)

EVERTON v NORWICH

Stats Analysis

Everton have lost 8 of the last 14 league matches and have won just 6 of 20 home fixtures when conceding. Norwich have scored in 8 out of 8 league matches. The ratings are suggesting there is not much value in Evertons current price (1.65), dutching the Everton win by the 1 or 2 goal margin would seem to make more sense as all 14 of Everton's last 14 home victories have been by this margin as has 3 of Norwich's last 4 away defeats (2.10)

The draw can be backed at (4.00) and this looks to offer value given the form of both sides.

Norwich can be backed at (6.00) and this looks to offer a small amount of value. If you do fancy Norwich to do well then you could certainly be best keeping the draw on side and Norwich can be backed +1 goal at (1.85)

As for goals there are some pretty mixed stats, however looking at Evertons home record this season they have conceded in all 7 home games and 8 of the last 15 both teams have scored and Norwich have scored and conceded in 6 of their opening 7 away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.73) and looks about right. Both teams to score looks more enticing as both teams have scored in 7 of Everton's last 10 home matches to similar rated sides and as already highlighted above both teams have scored in 6 of Norwich's opening 7 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.83)

BetsLayer Value Highlight 

The Draw (4.0) 

FULHAM v BOLTON 

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is value in backing Fulham even at a skinny looking (1.67) and indeed Fulham do have a very strong record at home to similar rated sides and this reads W7 D2 L1. Bolton are in very poor form at the moment having lost 5 of their last 6 away games and are presently at the bottom of the table. Bolton haven't won a league game at Fulham since 1992, 12 meetings and since the 3-0 defeat last season have lost 16 of the last 20 Premier League games. Bolton can be backed at (6.00) and this price offers no value and there is nothing in the stats/form that gives this any backing.

The draw is priced at (3.80) and this offers no real value. Bolton have only drawn 1 of their last 15 away games

As for goals 9 from the last 15 with 4 of the last 5 of Fulham's home matches have had +2.5 goals, (also 6 of the last 10 against low rated sides) as have 13 of the last 15 Bolton league games (7 from the last 7 away games) Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.91) and looks good value. 

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals (1.91)

NEWCASTLE v SWANSEA

Stats Analysis

Newcastle have won 6 of the last 11 home matches and have won all four home games against bottom-half opponents. Swansea have lost 5 of the last 7 away fixtures this season, with only 2 of their 17 points coming from away games. The ratings are suggesting that there is some good value in backing Newcastle to win this game (1.83).

Swansea are available at (5.00) and this offers no real value. If you do fancy Swansea in this game the best option is certainly to keep the draw on side and Swansea can be backed +0.5 goals (2.10)

The draw is priced at (3.6) which offers no real value given the ratings and strong home bias but should not be fully ignored.

As for goals there are some strong stats for 3 or more. Over 2.5 goals has been seen in 10 of Newcastle's last 15 home games and in 5 of Swansea's opening 7 away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.85) and looks a solid option. Over 3.5 goals could also be an option and has been seen in 4 of Newcastle's last 7 home games to low rated sides and this has also been the total in 5 of Swansea's opening 7 away games. Over 3.5 goals can be backed at (3.25). With the above stats on goals then Both teams to score has to be considered and both teams have scored in 11 of Newcastle's last 15 home matches and in 4 of Swansea's opening 7 away games. Swansea have however scored only 4 goals against sides in the top half of the table. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.80)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals (1.85)

WOLVES v STOKE

Stats Analysis

The ratings are very much inline with whats available. Wolves have a very strong home record to similar rated sides which reads W5 D3 L2. Wolves can be backed at (2.50). It could pay to keep the draw on side and a decent alternative to the win is the Asian Handicap +0 goal at (1.84).Wolves have had W/W doubles in 7 of the last 15 home matches against similar rated sides while Stoke have had L/Ls in 13 of the last 26 away fixtures (5 of the last 8 against low rated sides) so for a longer odds bet this is available at (4.8)

Stoke have had a terrible run away from home winning only 2 from the last 15 with 10 loses. Stoke are priced at (3.00) and this is priced about right and despite Stokes recent away performances they do have a decent record away to low rated sides which reads W4 D4 L2

The draw can be backed at (3.30) and holds little value, although it does still offer some attraction

As for goals the stats are very skewed, with strong home stats balanced against week away, this is also true of Both teams to score even though seen in the last 4 Wolves home games. There has been a goal scored before the 28th minute in 10 of Wolves last 15 home matches and in 9 of Stoke's last 11 away games. The first goal of the game to be scored before 28 minutes can be backed at Evens (2.00).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

First goal of the game to be scored before 28 minutes (2.00)

WIGAN v CHELSEA (Saturday 17:30 ESPN)

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is no real value in Chelsea's current price (1.44) Chelsea do however have an excellent record at Wigan having won the head to head in five of their six league trips to Wigan. Wigan though have only lost 4 of their last 10 at home to top rated sides, but do look to be struggling at home.Wigan can be backed at (8.50) and this looks to offer small value. However as we have seen when playing top rated sides they can be a surprise package. If you do fancy Wigan to spring a shock you are best hoping they have one of their good days and they can be backed on the Asian Handicap +1.25 goals at (2.05).

Wigan have had HT/FT L/L in 4 of the 5 home matches and Chelsea have had W/W in 3 of the last 6 away matches (6 of the last 10 against low rated sides). Chelsea/Chelsea HT/FT is available at (2.1) 

The draw can be backed at (4.60) and this looks to offer value but not much appeal given Wigan's home form.

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more, but at (1.65) for Over 2.5 goals it offers little attraction. Over 3.5 goals looks to have some appeal as this has been seen in 7 of Wigan's last 10 home games to top rated sides and in 5 of Chelsea's last 8 away at low rated sides. Over 3.5 goals can be backed at (2.65)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Chelsea/Chelsea HT/FT (2.1)

Chelsea v Manchester City - Premier League Betting Value Analysis

Chelsea v Manchester City (Monday 8pm Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

This game should be billed as a title battle, but Chelsea have struggled with that billing and are a full 10 points behind the league leaders Manchester City. Chelsea do have a fantastic record against top rated sides winning 8 of the last 9 encounters at the bridge. Chelsea can be backed at (2.60) and if you do fancy Chelsea to do well then it could make sense to keep the draw on side. Chelsea can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0 goals at (1.83) and this is effectively draw no bet.

The draw is available at (3.40) and this offers reasonable value and is definitely something to be considered in a match that means so much to both sides, with neither really be able to afford a loss.

Manchester City can be backed at (2.9) and this offers reasonable value. They have however only won 2 of the last 8 away against top rated sides, so as with Chelsea it is probably best to keep the draw on side and Manchester City can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0 goals at (2.10)

As for goals we have some pretty mixed stats however looking at the general form there looks some value in backing 3 or more goals as 12 of Chelsea's last 15 home games have seen 3 or more goals as has 10 of Manchester City's last 15 away games and 5 from the last 8 against top rated sides. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.80).

The 2nd half has been the highest scoring half in 10 of Chelsea's last 15 home games and in 6 of Chelsea's last 8 at home to top rated sides. For Manchester City the 2nd half has been the highest scoring half in 9 of Manchester Citys last 13 away games and in 6 of Manchester City's last 8 away to top rated sides. The 2nd half to be the highest scoring can be backed at (2.10)

Betslayer Value Highlight

2nd half to be the highest scoring at (2.10)

Premier League Betting Value Analysis (December 11th)

Sunderland v Blackburn (Sunday 13.30pm Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Sunderland have won only two of their last 15 home games and little separates these clubs in the Premier League standings. It is hard to get very excited about odds-on that Sunderland can see off an underrated Blackburn. The negativity surrounding Rovers has led many to write them off but some recent performances have been encouraging, so Martin O’Neill’s reign could start difficultly. However the ratings show there is some small value in backing Sunderland to win this game. Sunderland can be backed at (1.91)

The draw can be backed at (3.50) and although this is about right, given the form of both sides this certainly should not be fully discounted

Blackburn can be backed at (4.50) and this offers no real value. If you do fancy Blackburn to do well then you are certainly best keeping the draw on side and Blackburn can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at (2.05)

As for Goals there have been +2.5 goals in 5 of the last 6 Sunderland home matches (9 of 14 against similar rated sides) and in 5 of the last 7 Blackburn away games (5 of 7 against similar rated sides). Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.91). Both teams to score also looks a strong option with both teams scoring in 10 of  Sunderland's last 15 home games and in all of Blackburn's last 10 away games to similar rated sides (12 of the last 15 away games). Both teams to score can be backed at (1.73)

Late goals could feature, there has been a goal after 73 minutes in 7 of Sunderland's last 10 home games to similar rated sides and in 7 of Blackburn's last 10 away to similar rated sides. The last goal of the game to come after 73 minutes can be backed at (1.91)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals (1.91)

Stoke v Tottenham  (Sunday 16.00pm Sky Sports 1) 

Stats Analysis

Tottenham are beating everything put before them at the moment and Stoke may struggle to halt their momentum. The Potters have been uncharacteristically poor at home recently and should be outclassed by a Spurs outfit who are currently enjoying a great run. Spurs have won 10 of their last 11 league matches and 5 from the last 6 away. The ratings highlight that there may be some value in backing Spurs to win this game. Spurs can be backed at (2.15)

The draw can be backed at (3.50) and according to the ratings this does not offer much value, it does though have to be taken into consideration.

Stoke can be backed at (3.75) and the ratings don't show much value here, If you do fancy Stoke to do well then you are best keeping the draw on side and Stoke can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.25 goals (2.10)

As for goals there are mixed stats with both of the sides. However when looking at Spurs 8 of their last 10 away games to similar rated sides have featured 3 or more goals.  Over 2.5 goals have also been seen in 7 of Stokes last 14 home matches including their last 3 home games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.95). A stronger option is Both teams to score and this has been seen in 8 of Stoke's last 14 home games and 9 of Spurs last 10 away games to similar rated sides (5 from the last 5 away games generally). Both teams to score can be backed at (1.73)

Betslayer Trade Zone

Stoke have lost 5 of the last 10 home games when conceding before HT while Spurs have won 10 of 11 league fixtures and have scored before HT in all 10 games

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Spurs to win (2.15)

BetsLayer Premier League Saturday Selections plus Top Draw and Luckylucas (Dec 10th)

BetsLayer ACCOUNT picks

Arsenal v Everton - Dutch Arsenal to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.04)
Bolton v Aston Villa - Half time draw (2.20)
Swansea v Fulham - The Draw (3.4)


TOP DRAW

Bolton v Aston Villa (3.4)
Swansea v Fulham  (3.4)
Coventry v Hull (3.4)
Oldham v Sheff Weds (3.6)
Yeovil v Notts County (3.7)
Bradford v Plymouth (3.8)
Bristol R v Swindon (3.6)
Dagenham v Port Vale (3.6)

LUCKYLUCAS Lower League picks

Barnsley v Ipswich - Barnsley to win (2.00)
Southampton v Blackpool - Southampton to win (1.64)
Tranmere v MK Dons  - MK Dons to win (2.44)

Premier League Betting Value Analysis (December 10th)

Manchester United v Wolves

Stats Analysis 

Manchester United have scored one goal in each of their last seven league games and the ratings are suggesting that there is no real value in backing them to win this game at (1.20). If you fancy Manchester United to do well. Dutching the Manchester United win by 1 or 2 goals pays (2.13) and this looks to offer some value given the fact that 10 of Manchester United's last 13 home victories have been by this margin, indeed Wolves have lost by 1 or 2 goals in 7 of their last 8 to top rated sides. Manchester United to win to nil looks another option as Manchester United have won 7 of their last 10 home games to low rated sides to nil and Wolves have lost 6 of their last 10 away games to top rated sides to nil.(1.86). The No on both teams to score can be backed at (1.73)

The draw can be backed at (7.00) and although this offers value it offers very little appeal

Wolves have taken one point from seven games against teams in the top half and will have bigger matches in their battle against the drop. Wolves can be backed at (19.00) and even at this price this offers no value. However if you do fancy Wolves to do well then looking at the stats Wolves have only lost by 3 or more goals in 3 of their last 10 away to top rated sides, Wolves +2 goals on the Asian Handicap (1.86)

As for goals there is some value in the under 2.5 goals as this has been seen in 6 of Manchester United's last 12 home games plus last 5 overall and in 7 of Wolves last 15 away. Under 2.5 goals (2.48). The second half has been the highest scoring in 7 of Manchester United's last 10 at home to low rated sides and in 6 of Wolves last 10 away to top rated sides. The second half to be the highest scoring can be backed at (2.10)

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The second half to be the highest scoring can be backed at (2.10)

Norwich v Newcastle

Stats Analysis

The ratings say there isn't much value in backing Norwich at their current price of (2.50). If you do fancy Norwich to do well then you are certainly best keeping the draw on side and Norwich can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0 goals (1.83)

Newcastle have slipped after facing Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea in successive matches, but they were not three goals worse than the Blues and can see off the Canaries, who have claimed all four of their victories against teams in the bottom half. Newcastle can be backed at (3.10) and this offers value and Newcastle do have a very solid record away to low rated sides which reads W4 D4 L1. However as there is such a strong draw bias it might be wise to keep this on your side, the draw can be backed at (3.40), Newcastle can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0 goals (2.10)

Norwich have conceded an average of 1.4 goals per home game but Newcastle have seen only 6 of their last 15 away games have 3 goals or more. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00) and has some value.

Both teams have scored in 12 of Norwich's 14 Premier League matches plus have found the net in 13 of Norwich's last 15 home games and in 5 of Newcastle's last 9 away to low rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.75) which is no real value.

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Newcastle on the Asian Handicap +0 goals or Draw No Bet (2.10)

Swansea v Fulham

Stats Analysis 

The ratings are suggesting that there is some value in backing Swansea at (2.75). If you do fancy Swansea to do well then it could pay to keep the draw on side and Swansea can be backed +0 goals at (1.99)

There is a strong draw bias to this game with Fulham drawing 5 of their last 10 away to low rated sides, 4 from the last 10 generally and Swansea have draw 3 from their opening 7 home games, the draw can be backed at (3.40) which offers value

Fulham have not had much luck this season but the tide may have turned with their 1-0 victory at home to Liverpool on Tuesday. The Cottagers have been playing well for a number of weeks and they may be taking on out-of-form Swansea at just the right time. They have however only scored 4 goals away from home this season and against tight hosts that looks unlikely to improve. Fulham can be backed at (2.90) and this does not offer much value and as with Swansea if you do fancy Fulham to do well then you are best keeping the draw on side, so on the Asian Handicap Fulham can be backed +0 goals at (1.95)

Swansea have scored less than two goals in ten of their 15 matches this season and have conceded less goals at home than any other side in the Premier League. As for goals there is a bias to 2 or under and this has been seen in 5 of Swansea's opening 7 home games, 8 of Fulham's last 10 away to low rated sides and in 6 of their opening 7 away games. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.73) and this still looks to offer some value.
The No on both teams to score also looks strong both teams have scored in only 1 of Swansea's last 7 home games and in 6 of Fulham's last 15 away games. The no on both teams to score can be backed at (2.00).

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The Draw (3.4)

Arsenal v Everton

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Arsenal at (1.57). If you do fancy Arsenal to continue their recent good run Dutching the Arsenal win by 1 or 2 goals certainly looks to make some sense. Arsenal have only won by more than 2 goals 3 times in the last 12 home wins and all against low rated sides and only 1 of Everton's last 15 away defeats have been by 3 or more goals and they have only conceded 3 goals in 4 of these matches. Dutching the Arsenal win by 1 or 2 goals (2.04).

Everton suffered a shock 1-0 defeat at home to Stoke on Sunday but they can bounce back by taking a point from their daunting trip to the Emirates Stadium. Arsenal's attack lacked incisiveness in a recent 1-1 draw at home to Fulham and it could be a similar story against a solid Everton back-line. The draw is priced at (4.00) and this certainly offers value and must be considered.

Everton are priced at (7.50) and this offers some value. If you do fancy Everton to do well then you are best keeping the draw on side and they certainly look good value +1 goals on the Asian Handicap at (1.91)

As for goals there is a bias to 2 or less, this has been seen in 9 of Arsenal's last 15 home games and in 6 of Everton's last 9 away games. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.10). Arsenal have kept just one clean sheet in their last six domestic home fixtures. Both sides have scored in 3 of Arsenal's last 4 at home and 7 of Everton's last 10 away meetings to top/middle rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.80).

Late action could be seen here, there has been a goal scored after 74 minutes in 7 of Arsenal's last 10 at home to similar rated sides and in 6 of Everton's last 10 away to top/middle rated sides.  Generally 7 of Arsenal's last 10 home games and all 7 of Everton's last 7 away games have also seen a goal after 74 minutes. The last goal of the game to come after 74 minutes can be backed at (1.91)

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Dutching Arsenal to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.04)

West Brom v Wigan

Stats Analysis

West Brom’s poor home form this season owes a lot to a difficult set of fixtures and they can improve their Hawthorns haul with a win over lowly Wigan. The Latics have been largely toothless on the road and look unlikely to build on their late victory at Sunderland. Swansea (Away) are the only bottom-half side to have beaten West Brom, but there is not much value in backing them at their current price of (1.73). If you do fancy West Brom to win the game then a sound option is to dutch them to win by 1 or 2 goals. The last 10 West Brom's home victories have come via this margin as has 10 of Wigan's last 11 away defeats to similar rated sides.  Dutching the West Brom win by 1 or 2 goals (2.14)

The draw can be backed at (3.80) and this offers value

Wigan can be backed at (5.50) and this looks about right according to the ratings. However if you do fancy Wigan to do well then backing them on the Asian Handicap + 1 goals at (1.83) is an alternative as West Brom have only beaten this margin 3 times in their last 10 home victories (26 games).

As for goals there is a definite bias to 3 or more and this has been seen in 4 of West Brom's last 6 at home to low rated sides and in 7 of Wigan's last 10 away again to similar rated sides. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.91) and this looks to offer some value. Both teams to score also seems a solid option as both sides have found the net in 10 of both teams respective last 15 home and away games. Also both teams have found the net in 5 of West Broms last 6 home games to low rated sides.  Both teams to score can be backed at (1.91) and this looks a solid option.

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The Draw (3.8)

Liverpool v QPR

Stats Analysis

Liverpool were a little unlucky to lose 1-0 at Fulham on Monday but they can bounce back with a home victory over QPR. The Reds' midfield is weakened by the absences of Lucas and Jay Spearing but their attack should make the difference. They have however only scored more than 1 goal twice in 7 home games this season. The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing at their current price of (1.36). Looking at how to improve the value for Liverpool backers really depends on how many goals you see them scoring and in truth as above this season they have not been prolific and indeed barring the Swansea game which finished 0-0 they have conceded in each game so far. Dutching the Liverpool win by 1 or 2 goals makes some sense as 8 of their last 10 home victories to similar rated sides have come via this margin. Dutching the Liverpool win by 1 or 2 goals (1.95)

 The draw can be backed at (5.50) and this certainly offers value, however little attraction, although it must be remembered that Liverpool have now drawn the last 4 home games.

QPR have conceded two goals or more in their last four away games. QPR can be backed at (11.00) and this price  does offer some value. If you do expect QPR to do well then your best option is certainly to back them on the Asian Handicap and they can be backed + 1.5 goals (1.91)

As for goals the bias in towards 2 or less, Liverpool have seen 9 of their last 15 home games have 2 or less goals so Under 2.5 goals  looks a reasonable option and this can be backed at (2.20). Again both teams to score comes into the equation, 6 of Liverpool's last 7 home games and QPR's last 3 away games have seen this, both teams to score is priced (2.20) this looks to offer some value.

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Dutching Liverpool to win by 1 or 2 goals (1.95)

Bolton Wanderers v Aston Villa

Stats Analysis

Bolton have lost 11 of their 14 Premier League games so far this season and are priced at (2.60) and this offers no real value. The Trotters have had a player dismissed in each of their last two matches but if they can keep 11 men on the pitch, they could win a much-needed three points against fellow strugglers Villa. Indeed if you fancy Bolton to do well then the best option is to back them on the Asian Handicap +0 goals (1.82)

There is a strong draw bias to this game and the draw is priced at (3.40) and this offers value especially when looking at recent head to heads with 3 draws from 5 and Aston Villa's away form to similar rated sides (2 losses in last 10 games, 6 draws). Aston Villa are priced at (2.90) and this looks to offer some value. However we would certainly look to keep the draw on side and Aston Villa can be backed +0 goals at (2.10).

As for goals there is certainly a bias to 3 or more as Over 2.5 goals has been seen in 10 of both sides respective last 15 home and away fixtures.  Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.91) and this looks to offer some decent value. Both teams to score is certainly of interest as both teams have scored in 8 of Aston Villa's last 10 away to similar rated sides and 12 of the last 15 generally. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.75)

There are some strong stats involving both halves. Bolton have drawn 6 of their last 10 1st halves at home to similar rated sides and Aston Villa have drawn the 1st half in 9 of their last 10 away to similar rated sides. The half time draw can be backed at (2.20). The 2nd half has been the highest scoring in 9 of Bolton's last 10 home games against similar rated sides and for Aston Villa the 2nd half has been the highest scoring in 5 of their last 10 away to similar rated sides. The 2nd half to be the highest scoring can be backed at (2.10)

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Half time draw (2.20)