BetsLayer Saturday Review October 29th

Gerrard feels BetsLayers pain of Bury's disallowed goal!

Well what a day, unbelievable, started off with a great shout and the Chelsea v Arsenal game having most goals in the second half, what a second half Arsenal coming from 2-1 down at HT to win 5-3 at the Bridge.

The account bets were on ok form with 2 x 2.10 winners (Swansea and above) but Manchester City let us down in the HT/FT.

The Top Draw had an off day with a number of close calls, Bury v Stevenage I'm looking at you, if only that goal hadn't been disallowed. Northampton v Rotherham was our one into the top drawer, finishing at 1-1 for a 3.55 win.

Luckylucas lower league bets endured a tough time, the Derby DNB was very sound at evens and they won comfortably 3-1 but all other bets suffered with Sheffield Uniteds home 4-4 draw being perhaps the most unusual. Will have a further update as the weekends games are completed, Liverpool just won comfortably without Steven Gerrard 2-0 at WBA which didn't do much for our value shout.


Staked £300 with 243.75 returned, so just over a 2 point loss on the day, a second losing week in a row which is frustrating, but is the nature of the game with our varied portfolio and odds of the top draw.

Weekend 29-30th October BetsLayer selections

Right guys and gals here are the bets for this weekend, might have another on the monday football depending on what the odds do.


BetsLayer Account
Swansea to win 11/10 (2.10)
Manchester City HT/FT (1.6)
Chelsea v Arsenal 2nd half to be the highest scoring 11/10 (2.10)

Top Draw
Wigan v Fulham (3.4)
Watford v Peterboro (3.7)
Bury v Stevenage (3.4)
Rochdale v Orient (3.6)
Scunthorpe v Tranmere (3.6)
Walsall v MK dons (3.65)
Northampton v Rotherham (3.55)

Luckylucas Lower League 
Derby Draw No Bet (2.0) or Asian Handicap 0 (2.00) same bet!
Sheff Utd -1 Asian Handicap (2.00)
Swindon -1 Asian Handicap (2.10)
Barnsley to Win (2.20)

EPL Match Analysis Weekend 29th October

Everton v Manchester United

Stats Analysis

The ratings are very much in line with the odds available and Everton do have a very good record when playing top rated sides at Goodison Park. Infact they only lost 1 at home against top half sides in 2010/2011.

The draw is priced at 13/5 (3.60) and this offers some value and is certainly worth consideration given United’s recent record against similar rated sides drawing 7 of their last 10 away games.

As for goals the Over 2.5 goals looks a good option and has been seen in 6 of Everton’s last 10 home games to top rated sides and in 9 of Manchester Uniteds last 15 away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at a very appealing looking 10/11 (1.95).

Both teams to score also looks of some appeal and this has been seen in 6 out of 9 respective home and away games against similar opposition. Both teams to score can be backed at 3/4 (1.75), this offers some value.

Late goals appear to be a regular event at Goodison Park and there has been a goal scored after 73 minutes in 7 of their last 9 home games to top rated sides and in 6 of Manchester United’s last 9 away games to similar sides. The last goal of the game to be scored after 73 minutes can be backed at 10/11 (1.91).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 10/11 (1.95)

BetsLayer Trade Zone

Look to lay no goal after 70 minutes at under Evens (2.00)

Chelsea v Arsenal (Sky Sports 2 Saturday 12.45)

Stats Analysis

Chelsea can be backed at 4/6 (1.67) and this looks a little short on the ratings. Dutching the Chelsea victory by 1 or 2 goals potentially makes more sense, as all 6 of their previous 6 home victories to similar rated sides have come via this margin.

As for goals Over 2.5 goals have been seen in 10 of Chelseas last 15 at home, with 6 from 10 against similar opposition and in 13 of Arsenals last 15 away matches with 5 from 8 against top rated sides. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 7/10 (1.70) and whilst short it represents some value.

The 2nd half to be the highest scoring looks worth consideration as this has been the result in 6 of Chelsea’s last 10 home games v similar opposition and in 5 of Arsenals last 8 away to top rated sides, 11/10 (2.10)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

2nd half to be the highest scoring 11/10 (2.10)

Swansea v Bolton

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is value in backing Swansea to win at better than 11/10 (2.10) infact Bolton’s awful run is now 12 defeats in 14 EPL games.

There is a fairly strong draw bias to this game and the draw is priced at 12/5 (3.4) and this offers value and is certainly worthy of consideration

As for goals then there is a bias to 3 or more and Over 2.5 goals have been seen in 9 of Bolton’s last 15 away games and in 6 of their last 10 away to similar rated sides. This is not so strong with Swansea as 3 or more goals have only been seen in 1 of their last 4 home games to similar sides and infact in only 8 of the last 15 with 11 in the Championship. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Swansea to win 11/10 (2.10)


Sunderland v Aston Villa

Stats Analysis

The match odds don’t appear to offer any real value compared to the ratings, some slight value in Aston Villas price (3.9) but that’s not really an attractive option, especially considering they are yet to win away this season. Alternatively and keeping the draw onside you can back Aston Villa Draw No Bet at 6/4 (2.50).

As for goals then when looking at both teams general form Over 2.5 goals offers some value at 11/10 (2.10) as there has been 3 or more goals in 10 of Sunderlands last 15 home games and in 7 of Aston Villas last 15 away games . However when looking at both sides respective form against similarly rated sides there is a different story.

Late goals could come into play as there has been a goal after 75 minutes in 7 of Aston Villas last 9 away games and in 8 of Sunderland’s last 14 home games. The last goal of the game to come after 72 minutes can be backed at Evens (2.00)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Aston Villa Draw No Bet at 6/4 (2.50).

BetsLayer Trade Zone

If the game situation dictates then look to lay no goal after 70 minutes at under Evens (2.00). i.e If either side are leading, if there has been lots of action and shots on target….however if its 0-0 then maybe stay away.

Norwich v Blackburn

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting there is some value in backing Norwich to win this game and they can be backed at 11/10 (2.10) and they have won 3 out of 5 against bottom half teams. However it should be remembered that Blackburn are fairly resilient when playing away at lower rated sides and have only lost 2 of their last 10 away matches.

The draw is priced at 13/.5 (3.60) and this offers some value and is certainly worth consideration.

As for goals then there are some mixed info coming out of the spreadsheet, generally there is a bias to Over 2.5 as 3 or more goals have been scored in 9 of Norwich’s last 13 home games and in 9 of Blackburn’s last 15 away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 10/11 (1.91)

Both teams to score looks a very solid option as both teams have scored in 12 of Norwich’s last 14 home games and in 3 of their last 4 home games to similar opposition. The stats are also strong for Blackburn where both teams have scored in 11 of their last 15 away games as well as in 8 of their last 10 away to low rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at 8/11 (1.73)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Both teams to score 8/11 (1.73)

Wigan v Fulham

Stats Analysis

There is an extremely strong draw bias to this game and all 5 of the previous 5 meetings at Wigan have ended level and both sides have drawn 6 of their last 10 home and away games respectively against similar opposition 12/5 (3.4).

As for goals there are some decent stats and Under 2.5 goals looks to offer some value at 3/4 (1.75) 8 of Fulham’s last 10 away games to similar sides have seen 2 or fewer goals as has 6 of Wigan’s last 10 home games to similar sides so this certainly looks a strong option.

Both teams to score also looks strong as both teams have scored in 9 of Wigan’s last 10 home games to similar sides and in 5 of Fulham’s last 10 away games to low rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at 5/6 (1.83) again this looks worth consideration.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The Draw 12/5 (3.4)

Man City V Wolves

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting not much value in backing Manchester City at their current price of 1/5 (1.20). However if you do fancy Manchester City then there are a number of viable options. 10 of Manchester City’s last 14 home games have been won by the Half time / Full time result and all 5 of Wolves previous 5 away defeats have come via this result. (1.6)

The draw can be backed at 6/1 (7.00) and this offers some value but very little appeal with the recent form City are showing.

Manchester Citys home games are not really know for late action. The last goal of the game has been scored before the 75th minute in 7 of Manchester Citys last 10 home games to low rated sides and in 5 of Wolves last 9 away games to top rated sides. The last goal of the game to come before 75 minutes can be backed at 10/11 (1.91) and given the above could offer some value.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Manchester City HT/FT (1.6)

BetsLayer Trade Zone

Look to trade down the No goal or existing score once the 70th minute is reached, this type of time decay would not be advised if Manchester City are not winning comfortably at this point.

West Brom v Liverpool (ESPN Saturday 17.30)

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Liverpool to win this match and looking at their recent away record to similar rated sides that would tend to agree. Liverpool can be backed at 21/20 (2.05) and this offers no value.

If you do fancy Liverpool to win this game then your best option maybe to dutch them to win by 1 or 2 goals as all 5 of West Broms last 5 home defeats have come via this margin as has 4 of Liverpools last 6 away victories. Liverpool can be backed at a shade under 7/5 (2.40) and gets nearer to a value option.

The draw can be backed at 5/2 (3.50) and this looks to offer some value and worth consideration.

West Brom can be backed at 16/5 (4.20) and this looks to offer some value. However if you do fancy West Brom to win it maybe a better option to keep the draw on your side and West Brom can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals 10/11 (1.91) or The Draw No Bet 2/1 (3.00)

As for goals then the stats are pretty weak, West Brom have become a lot tighter since Roy Hodgson took over with 2 or less goals in 4 of their last 5 home games. Also there has been Under 2.5 goals in 5 of Liverpool’s last 10 away at similar rated sides. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at 5/6 (1.83) and this looks to offer a small amount of value.

Nothing else is really being highlighted although Both teams have scored in only 4 of Liverpools last 10 away games to similar rated sides and the No on both teams to score can be backed at Evens (2.00)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

West Brom Asian Handicap +0.5 goals 10/11 (1.91)

Spurs v QPR (Sky Sports 1 Sunday 16.00)

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Spurs at their current price of 2/5 (1.40). The half time / Full time result could be considered as Spurs have won 5 of their last 6 home victories. QPR have also lost both of their 2 away defeats this season by this result and Spurs can be backed at Evens (2.00) and this looks to offer some good value.

The draw can be backed at 4/1 (5.00) and this offers some value especially when you look at Spurs recent home record to low rated sides

As for goals even though Spurs have averaged a total goal average of 3.5 this season, we certainly wouldn’t go lumping on the 8/13 (1.62) on the Over 2.5 goals. Indeed when you look at Spurs recent record at home to low rated sides when there has been 2 or fewer goals in 7 of 10 matches then the 11/8 (2.38) on Under 2.5 goals looks to offer some value.

Given QPR’s general away form and Spurs home form to low rate sides the No on Both teams to score looks an option. Both teams have scored in only 3 of QPR’s last 15 away games and in 4 of Spurs last 10 at home to low rated sides, Evens (2.00).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Spurs HT/FT Evens (2.0)


Stoke v Newcastle (Sky Sports 1 Monday 20.00)

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting there isn’t much value in Stoke’s current price 12/10 (2.20). some slight value in Newcastle’s price (3.9) but that’s not really such an attractive option. Alternatively and keeping the draw onside you can back Newcastle Draw No Bet at (2.9) or Asian Handicap +0.5 goals (1.88)

There is a fairly strong draw bias to this game and the draw is priced at 12/5 (3.4) and this offers value and is certainly worthy of consideration.

As for goals there are some decent stats and Under 2.5 goals looks to offer some value at 3/4 (1.75) 11 of Stokes last 15 home games and have seen Under 2.5 goals as has 11 of Wigan’s last 15 away games so this certainly looks a strong option especially when also looking at the fact Stoke have only conceded one goal at home and that was against Manchester United.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The Draw 12/5 (3.4)

October 22-23 - Back from Dusseldorf Weekend Review.

Well back from some real great fun in Dusseldorf, top stuff from the boys, but a tough week back in blighty for the BetsLayer, 2 out of 3 account bets won, with Spurs 2-1 away win bringing in profit, also with the Overs. The draws however were thin on the ground but 2 out of 8 delivered at good odds, Luckylucas Lower League only managed one winner from 3 with Huddersfield's 3-1 home win to Preston, overall £332.25 for an initial stake of £350, giving us a small loss on the week after 2 great weeks.

In summary we have now staked £975 with a return of £1064 ROI 9.13 % over the 4 weeks.

Top Draw is 23 selections / 7 winners giving a ROI 8.26%

In the match analysis we again had some highlights, but also struggled and certainly no stats or ratings showed Manchester City winning 6-1 at Old Trafford :-

As for goals then there is a bias to 3 or more and this has been seen 10 of Wolves last 14 home games and in 3 of Swansea’s 4 away matches in the Premiership. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00) and looks worth consideration. 

There looks to be early goals in this match and indeed in 8 of Wolves last 10 games to similar opposition there has been a goal scored before the 27 th minute

2-2 draw, with the first goal arriving in the 23rd minute

As for goals, even with Aston Villa’s general form there is a bias to Over 2.5 goals as this has been seen in 7 of Aston Villa’s last 11 at home to similar rated sides and in 7 of West Broms last 10 away games to similar rated sides Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 20/21 (1.95).
 
Both teams to score looks a strong option as both teams have scored in 8 of Aston villa’s last 15 home games and in 7 of West Brom’s last 10 away games 4/5 (1.80).

Look to Lay Aston Villa at 11/10 (2.1) or under with a view of trading out for a nice profit if West Brom start well, trade out if there is no goal at 20 mins…otherwise let it ride

Aston Villa lost 1-2, so both scored and Overs

The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Liverpool to win this game.  Liverpool do have a very strong record at home sides and are priced at 1/3 (1.33) 

Liverpool drew 1-1 in shock home result, howevcr our HT/FT was let down unluckily as Liverpool did go in the lead in first half injury time.

As for goals then there is a definite bias to 3 or more and this has been seen in 8 of Manchester Uniteds last 9 at home to top rated sides and in 4 of Manchester Citys last 7 away to similar rated sides Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 5/6 (1.83).

The second half has been the highest scoring in 5 of Manchester Uniteds last 9 at home to top rated sides and in 5 of Manchester Citys last 7 away games. The second half to be the highest scoring can be backed at 11/10 (2.10)

 

Manchester City AMAZINGLY won 6-1 taking out our United value, but with a glut of goals in the second half of the game after J Evans' red card things weren't all bad.

 

Arsenal can be backed at 3/5 (1.60), which given the fact they were 1.25 for the same game last season does offer some value.

Finally it may be worth backing Arsenal to score in both halves as Arsenal have scored in both halves in 9 of their last 14 at home vs similar rated sides to Stoke and Stoke have conceded in both halves in 7 of their last 9 away games to top rated sides 23/17 (2.35)

Arsenal won 3-1 scoring in both halves, unfortunately their defence let us down for the win to nil for a second week

Jolly Jollox Hair Raising Dusseldorf Stag Special bets.

Betslayer Account Bets

Arsenal v Stoke Arsenal to win to nil 7/4 (2.75) 
Blackburn v Spurs Spurs to win (2.00)
Blackburn v Spurs Over 2.5 goals at 5/6 (1.83)

Top Draw

Fulham v Everton (3.35)
Reading v Southampton (3.55)
Bournemouth v Bury (3.5)
Chesterfield v Hartlepool (3.65)
Leyton Orient v Sheff Utd (3.6)
Bradford v Northampton (3.5)
Hereford v Barnet (3.6)
Plymouth v Swindon (4.0)

Luckylucas Lower League

Exeter v Rochdale Rochdale to win (2.85)
Port Vale v Morecambe Port Vale to win (1.99)
Huddersfield v Preston Huddersfield to win (1.95)

EPL Match Analysis Weekend 22nd October.

Wolves v Swansea (Sky Sports 2 Saturday 22/10/2011 12.45)

Stats Analysis

 A really tough game to call and the odds do seem in line with the ratings, Wolves have been in awful form losing 5 games without really threatening. Their home form against similar rated sides is also mixed with a record of W5 D1 L4.

If you do fancy Wolves to win Dutching the Wolves victory by 1 or 2 goals would make some sense as 4 of their last 5 victories at home to similar rated sides have come via this method 13/10 (2.30)

As for goals then there is a bias to 3 or more and this has been seen 10 of Wolves last 14 home games and in 3 of Swansea’s 4 away matches in the Premiership. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00) and looks worth consideration.

There looks to be early goals in this match and indeed in 8 of Wolves last 10 games to similar opposition there has been a goal scored before the 27 th minute. The first goal to be scored before 27 minutes can be backed at Evens (2.00). Swansea have scored in their last 4 games including 2 away games and despite their lack of goals Wolves have also found the net in 7 of the last 10 home games, so both to score offers good value at 5/6 (1.83)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Both to Score 5/6 (1.83)

Aston Villa v West Brom 

Stats Analysis 

The draw is priced at 13/5 (3.60) and this looks to offer some value. West Brom have scored four goals in the first 5 minutes of their games and for a longer odds bet the WBA/Draw double result could be worth a sniff at 16/1 (17.0).

As for goals, even with Aston Villa’s general form there is a bias to Over 2.5 goals as this has been seen in 7 of Aston Villa’s last 11 at home to similar rated sides and in 7 of West Broms last 10 away games to similar rated sides Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 20/21 (1.95).

Both teams to score looks a strong option as both teams have scored in 8 of Aston villa’s last 15 home games and in 7 of West Brom’s last 10 away games 4/5 (1.80). Aston Villa have scored in both halves in 8 of their last 12 home games to similar rated sides and they can be backed at 2/1 (3.00) to score in both halves and either of these options is worth considering.

 BetsLayer Value Highlight

Both to Score 4/5 (1.80)

BetsLayer Trade Zone 

Look to Lay Aston Villa at 11/10 (2.1) or under with a view of trading out for a nice profit if West Brom start well, trade out if there is no goal at 20 mins…otherwise let it ride (1 point trade)

Bolton v Sunderland

Stats Analysis

There is a fairly strong draw bias to this game and the draw is priced at 12/5 (3.40) and this offers value and is certainly worthy of consideration

As for goals then there is a bias to 3 or more and Over 2.5 goals has been seen in 10 of Boltons last 15 home games and in 7 of Sunderlands last 10 away games to similar rated sides. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00) and this offers some reasonable value.

When facing similar opposition both teams to score looks a good option and both sides tend not to keep clean sheets. Both teams have scored in 7 of Boltons last 10 home games and in 6 of Sunderlands last 10 away to similar rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at 8/11 (1.73) however this price is a little on the low side to be a value selection.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals Evens (2.00)

Newcastle v Wigan

Stats Analysis

The match odds don’t appear to offer any value compared to the ratings, some slight value in Wigan’s price (7.2) but that’s not really an attractive option. Probably the best method if you fancy a home win is Dutching the Newcastle victory by 1 or 2 goals and this pays a touch over Evens (2.04). Wigan are quite resilient away from home and have lost by the 1 or 2 goal margin in all 8 of their last 8 away defeats to similar rated sides.


As for goals then there is a definite bias to 3 or more and this has been seen in 10 of Newcastles last 15 home games and in 5 of Wigans last 10 away to similar rated sides. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 20/21 (1.95) and this looks a decent option.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals 20/21 (1.95)

 

Liverpool v Norwich (ESPN Saturday 22/10/2011 17.30)

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Liverpool to win this game.  Liverpool do have a very strong record at home sides and are priced at 1/3 (1.33)
 
Obviously this price is very low and we can look at ways to ramp this price up. Liverpool to win by the Half time/full time result would seem a reasonable option as Liverpool have won 8 of their last 10 victories at home to similar rated sides by the Half Time / Full time result 5/6 (1.83)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Liverpool to win via the Half Time / Full Time result 5/6 (1.83)
 

Man Utd v Man City (Sky Sports 1 Sunday 23/10/2011 13.30)

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting there is value in Manchester Uniteds current price 11/10 (2.1) and they have a superb record at home to fellow top rated sides which reads W9 D0 L1.

For the confident United fan, backing Manchester United to win by the half time/full time result may also be of interest and certainly offers value as Manchester United have won their last 5 matches at home to top rated sides by this result (3.50)

As for goals then there is a definite bias to 3 or more and this has been seen in 8 of Manchester Uniteds last 9 at home to top rated sides and in 4 of Manchester Citys last 7 away to similar rated sides Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 5/6 (1.83).

The second half has been the highest scoring in 5 of Manchester Uniteds last 9 at home to top rated sides and in 5 of Manchester Citys last 7 away games. The second half to be the highest scoring can be backed at 11/10 (2.10)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Manchester United to win 11/10 (2.10)

The second half to be the highest scoring 11/10 (2.10)

Fulham v Everton

Stats Analysis

There is a strong draw bias to the game and this can be backed at 12/5 (3.40) and this looks to offer value. Indeed if you think the game will end a draw then there is value in backing the Draw/Draw half/time full/time result. All 5 of Fulham’s last 5 draws against similar rated sides have come via this result as have 3 of Everton’s last 5 draws away to similar sides. The draw/draw can be backed at 4/1 (5.00)

As for goals there is a bias to 2 or under and this has been seen in 6 of Fulhams last 10 at home to similar sides and in 9 of Evertons last 15 away games.  Under 2.5 goals can be backed at 4/6 (1.67) which doesn’t offer much value.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The Draw at12/5 (3.4)

Arsenal v Stoke

Stats Analysis

The ratings are very much inline with the odds available, however Stoke have a very poor record away to top rated sidesnand indeed have a generally poor record away from the Britannia stadium where they have lost 10 of their last 14 away matches. Arsenal can be backed at 3/5 (1.60), which given the fact they were 1.25 for the same game last season does offer some value.

A stronger option could very well be Arsenal to win to nil as Stoke have only scored in 1 of their last 9 away matches to top rated sides. Arsenal can be backed at 7/4 (2.75) to be the only team to score and this would seem a great option.

Finally it may be worth backing Arsenal to score in both halves as Arsenal have scored in both halves in 9 of their last 14 at home vs similar rated sides to Stoke and Stoke have conceded in both halves in 7 of their last 9 away games to top rated sides 23/17 (2.35)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Arsenal to win to nil 7/4 (2.75)

  

Blackburn v Spurs

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is value in backing Spurs to win this game and they can be backed at Evens (2.00). Spurs have won 3 of their last 5 away games.

The draw is priced at 11/4 (3.75) and this offers some value and should be considered.

There have been 3 or more goals in 7 of Spurs last 10 away games to similar rated sides and there may be a small amount of value in backing Over 2.5 goals at 5/6 (1.83)

Late goals look likely as there has been a goal scored after 75 minutes in 6 of Spurs last 10 away games to similar rated sides and in 5 of Blackburns last 8 home games to similar rated sides. The last goal of the game to come after 75 minutes can be backed at 10/11 (1.91)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals at 5/6 (1.83)

Spurs to win (2.00)

BetsLayer Trade Zone

Look to lay no goal after 70 minutes at under Evens (2.00)

QPR V Chelsea (Sky Sports 1 Sunday 23/10/2011 16:00)

Stats Analysis 

The draw can be backed at 4/1 (5.00) and this looks to offer some value.

As for goals then there are some very mixed stats coming from both sides to make an opinion. However both teams to score at Evens (2.00) certainly makes for some appeal as Chelsea have conceded in all 5 of their previous 5 away games to similar rated sides and in 7 of their opening 8 matches this season. So at even money this certainly makes for some appeal.

Given the nature of this derby match there could be a slow start to the game and the first goal to come after 23 minutes looks of some appeal as the first goal of the game has come after 23 minutes in 6 of Chelseas last 10 away games 10/11 (1.91)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

first goal of the game after 23 minutes 10/11 (1.91)

BetsLayer Trade Zone 

Look to utilise the first goal stats above by backing the Under 2.5 at (2.3) and using the strategy seen last week, lay off 50% at 10 minutes and then the remainder until the 20th Minute.

BetsLayer Review of the Weekend - 15th-16th October, 2011

Shola celebrates the Top Draw success!

This last weekend was another good solid week for the BetsLayer, 2 out of 4 account bets won, with Stoke's strong 2-0 home win and both Bolton and Wigan scoring. Also with Newcastle's late equaliser 2 out of 6 on the Top Draw delivered again at nice odds, add in the Luckylucas Lower League with one big price winner Crystal Palace away at Watford and one no bet to return overall £372.5 for an initial stake of £275, giving us a very tasty 35% ROI for a second week running. In truth it could have been so much better if not for our Burnley Top Draw being sunk by a 98th minute...yes you read right a 98th minute winner for Reading.

In summary we have now staked £625 with a return of £741 ROI 18.56% over the 3 weeks. 

In addition to the above we also provided the EPL match analysis, which even with the more conservative Trade Zone approach to the First goal odds would have broken even on the Value Highlights.

The analysis included such gems as :-
In a game where there are not many standout stats Liverpool to score the first goal is certainly a good option. Liverpool have scored the 1^st goal in 6 of their last 8 home games to similar rated sides and Manchester United have conceded the first goal 5 times in 10 matches away to teams of Liverpool’s rating. Liverpool 6/5 (2.20) to score the first goal of the game looks like its worth of consideration

Liverpool scored first in the 68th Minute of the Game.


The first goal to be scored after 25 minutes looks a reasonable option as the 1^st goal has been scored after 25 minutes in 6 of Liverpools last 8 home games to sides of Manchester Uniteds Rating and in 6 of Manchester Uniteds last 10 games away to team’s of Liverpools rating. The First goal of the game to be scored after 25 minutes can be backed at 10/11 (1.91)

Liverpool scored first in the 68th Minute of the Game.


In eight of Manchester City’s 11 games this season, the second half has produced most goals 11/10 (2.10)

Second half had comfortably more goals with 4 to 1.


In the goals markets there is a bias to 3 or more and this has been seen in 8 of Norwich’s last 12 home games and in 8 of Swanseas last 15 away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 11/10 (2.10) and this looks to offer value

Overs arrrived in the 12th minute of the game.

Stay Lucky, the BetsLayer! 

Weekend 15th October BetsLayer Account and Top draw bets

Betslayer Account Bets
QPR to win 2.1
Stoke to win 2.5
Man City to win to nil 2.5
Wigan/Bolton Both to score 1.75

Top Draw
Norwich v Swansea 3.45
Newcastle v Spurs 3.5
Burnley v Reading 3.5
West Ham v Blackpool 4.2
Rochdale v Colchester 3.6
Accrington v Swindon 3.55

Luckylucas Lower League
Brighton v Hull Hull Draw no bet 2.46
Watford v Crystal Palace Palace to win 3.55

EPL Match Analysis Weekend 15th October.

Liverpool v Manchester United (Sky Sports 2 Saturday 15/10/2011 12.45)

Stats Analysis

In a game where there are not many standout stats Liverpool to score the first goal is certainly a good option. Liverpool have scored the 1^st goal in 6 of their last 8 home games to similar rated sides and Manchester United have conceded the first goal 5 times in 10 matches away to teams of Liverpool’s rating. Liverpool 6/5 (2.20) to score the first goal of the game looks like its worth of consideration.

As for goals, these sides boast 12 Both to score’s in their combined 20 games this season, this could offer some play although at 1.75 this might not be the best option.

The first goal to be scored after 25 minutes looks a reasonable option as the 1^st goal has been scored after 25 minutes in 6 of Liverpools last 8 home games to sides of Manchester Uniteds Rating and in 6 of Manchester Uniteds last 10 games away to team’s of Liverpools rating. The First goal of the game to be scored after 25 minutes can be backed at 10/11 (1.91). As an outside interest if there is to be a goal you would fancy the inform striker Luis Suarez to again trouble a defence with many question marks over it, take him to score anytime.

BetsLayer Trade Zone.

A different way to utilise the first goal statistics above is backing the Over 2.5 at 2.00 and then laying off liability gradually until the 20^th minute and this is our recommended strategy for this game. First exit point at 10 minutes (50% liability), rest spread evenly until final exit point at 20 mins. I will cover the above trading strategy further in a future trading article to give a wider view of how to trade this type of postion and  how to react to different scenario’s.

Manchester City v Aston Villa

Stats Analysis 
Manchester City have won 7 of their last 8 matches to nil and they can be backed at 6/4 (2.50) and this looks like a strong option.

In eight of Manchester City’s 11 games this season, the second half has produced most goals 11/10 (2.10)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Manchester City to win to nil 6/4 (2.50)

Second half to produce most goals 11/10 (2.10)

Norwich v Swansea

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is some value in Norwich’s price (2.25). Norwich have a very strong recent home record which reads W9 D5 L1. In the goals markets there is a bias to 3 or more and this has been seen in 8 of Norwich’s last 12 home games and in 8 of Swanseas last 15 away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 11/10 (2.10) and this looks to offer value. 10 of Norwich’s last 15 home games have had a goal in the final 15 minutes. There has also been a goal in the last 15 minutes in 6 of Swanseas last 11 away matches, recommend backing the last goal after 72 mins at Evens (2.00) or laying No goal in-running on the Betting Exchanges

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals 11/10 (2.10)

BetsLayer Trade Zone

Look to Lay No Goal after 70 mins for 2.00 or less

Swansea have kept first half clean sheets in 5 of their 7 EPL games, perhaps a time decay trade of the HT 0-0 scoreline could reap rewards.

QPR v Blackburn

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is value in backing QPR to win this game and they are facing a Blackburn team who have a poor record away from home in recent months. QPR can be backed at 10/11 (1.91) to win this match and this looks like a value call. It should be remembered though that QPR are yet to win at home this season and only Bolton and West Brom have worse home records.

As for goals there have been over 2.5 goals in 10 of Blackburns last 15 away games and in 5 of their last 6 away to sides of a similar rating. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00), another alternative might be to take both sides to score 10/11 (1.91)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

QPR to win 11/10 (1.91)

Stoke v Fulham

Stats Analysis

The match odds don’t appear to offer any value compared to the ratings, infact Stoke are slightly short, but have a very strong home record against similar graded sides.

As for goals we shouldn’t expect many only 3 of Fulhams last 10 away games to similar rated sides has seen 3 or more goals as has only 4 of Stokes last 15 home games. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at 4/6 (1.67) but even at this price it would look to offer some value.

The no on both teams to score looks to offer some value as both teams have failed to find the net in 7 of the last 10 respective home and away games featuring both these sides and this is priced at 5/6 (1.83).

Fulham have only conceded 1 goal in the first half in 1 of their last 7 away games to similar rated sides. Also Stoke have only conceded a goal in the first half in 3 of 10 matches at home to similar rated sides. The first goal of the game to come after 25 minutes can be backed at 10/11 (1.91)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

1^st goal to be scored after 25 minutes 10/11 (1.91). Again this is ideal for the Trade Zone approach above, as it’s a non UK tv game we will use the straight bet though.

BetsLayer Trade Zone

Stoke won all 6 of the games when they were leading at HT this season

Wigan v Bolton

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting there is good value in backing Wigan to win this game and Bolton are in awful form having lost 5 of their opening 6 matches this season and 11 of their last 12 including last season 13/10 (2.30)

Both teams to score is certainly of interest though and this has been seen in 7 of Wigans last 10 at home to similar rated sides and in 8 of Boltons last 10 away games to similar rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at 3/4 (1.75).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Both teams to score 3/4 (1.75)

Chelsea v Everton(ESPN Saturday 15/10/2011 17.30)

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is no real value in Chelseas current price of 4/11 (1.36) and although they do have a particularly strong home record they have drawn at home to Everton in all of their last 5 meetings at Stamford Bridge.

The draw is priced at 4/1 (5.00) and looks to offer good value given the clubs previous encounters at Stamford Bridge.

Both teams to score seems a strong option as Both teams have scored in 4 of Evertons last 6 away at top rated sides and in 6 of Chelseas last 8 home games to similar rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at 11/10 (2.10) and again is worth consideration.

There is a good chance that this game could have a tight start and there has been a goal scored before 27 minutes in only 3 of Chelseas last 10 home games to sides of Everton’s rating and in only 4 of Evertons last 10 away games to top rated sides.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The first goal of the game to be scored after 27 minutes 10/11 (1.91)

BetsLayer Trade Zone.

A different way to utilise the first goal statistics above is backing the Over 2.5 at 2.00 and then laying off liability gradually until the 20^th minute and this is our recommended starategy for this game. First exit point at 10 minutes (50% liability), rest spread evenly until final exit point at 20 mins

West Brom v Wolves

Stats Analysis

The ratings are in line with the odds on offer, there could be some value in opposing WBA, but I feel there are better ways to profit on this game.

There is a strong draw bias to the game and the draw can be backed at 12/5 (3.40)

As for goals there is a definite bias to 3 or more especially in the case of West Brom where 4 of their last 5 home games have seen Over 2.5 goals as has 11 of their last 15 home games. The trend is not as strong for Wolves as only 4 of their last 10 away games to similar rated teams have seen 3 or more goals. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00) and looks a reasonable option.

Both teams have scored in all 5 of West Broms previous 5 matches at home to similar rated sides and in 6 of Wolves last 10 away. Both teams to score can be backed at 5/6 (1.83) and this looks like a particularly strong bet

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Both teams to score 5/6 (1.83)

Arsenal v Sunderland (Sky Sports 1 Sunday 16/10/2011 13.30)

Stats Analysis

Arsenal can be backed at 4/9 (1.44) and this does not offer much value given Arsenals present troubles.

If you do think Arsenal will win the game then a viable alternative would be Arsenal to win to nil as Sunderland have not found the net in 4 of their last 6 matches away to similar rated teams as Arsenal. Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 9 of their last 13 home games. Arsenal to win to nil can be backed at 7/5 (2.40), there is also a good chance it will be by the Half Time / Full Time result Arsenal have won 7 of their last 10 home victories to similar rated sides by this method and all 9 of Sunderlands last 9 away defeats to sides of Arsenal’s rating have come by this method.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Arsenal to win Half Time / Full Time 11/10 (2.10)

Newcastle v Spurs (Sky Sports 1 Sunday 16/10/2011 16:00)

Stats Analysis

There is a very strong draw bias to this game and the draw can be backed at 12/5 (3.40) and this offers value.

As for goals, we should see a few, there have been 3 or more goals in 10 of Newcastles last 15 at home and in 3 of their last 4 home games to similar rated sides. For Spurs there has been 3 or more goals in 6 of their last 8 away games to similar rated sides. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 4/5 (1.80) and this offers value.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals 4/5 (1.80)

BetsLayer Trade Zone

Over 1.5 goals in the first half would seem worth consideration. There have been 2 or more goals in the first half in 10 of Newcastles last 15 home games and in 4 of Spurs last 7 away games to similar rated sides. The 1^st half to contain Over 1.5 goals can be backed at 15/8 (2.88)

Money Management

Money management is critical when investing in sports betting/trading. It is the key to ensuring you are taking the right level of risk in a market. Money management will define how much money you put into each trade. It will also tell you when to cut your losses. Each market and strategy has its own risk/reward structure and volatility. It is for you to find a process that works inside this structure. If you know what your total downside is then your profit target is automatically defined. If you are unable to find a system that will deliver this potential target then you are doomed from the start. Try to construct your money management around how often it will fail rather than by how successful it is. This will focus your mind.

If you have to close a position 90% of the time losing you £100 each time you can work out quite easily what upside you need per winning trade. If I assume my average stop loss loses me £100 per trade then I know that in 100 trades it will be fired 90 times (90%). Therefore I need the remaining winning trades to net me profit of at least £9000 (90 losses multiplied by £100). Therefore £9000 divided by the ten successful trades means my average profit on a trade needs to be at least £900. Trading without any form of money management will ensure you end up on the rocks before you even started. Get a grasp on it extensively before you start to trade.

For BetsLayer trades/bets we bet using a points system, most bets you see on this site will be to 1 point, we recommend using no more than 5% of your bank, so for a £500 bank bet £25 per trade.

For the Trade Zone, this will typically be a 2 point initial stake, so in the above example this will be a £50 initial trade/bet i.e £50 on Under 2.5....if an early goal goes against you, reduce liability until only 1 point is at risk £25.

Ps. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Review of Weekends 1st and 8th October

Well its been an interesting start to the blog with a first week Top Draw partly curtailed by Martin Atkinson's crazy red card to Jack Rodwell and a whole host of late goals and high scoring draws for week 2.

This last week (8th) was a good solid week even accounting for the fact we had two odds on favourite homes sides letting us down on the account bets, but 3 out of 6 on the Luckylucas Lower League Top Draw at nice odds returned £271.25 for an initial stake of £200, giving us a very tasty 35% ROI


In summary we have now staked £350 with a return of 368.75 ROI 5.35% over the 2 weeks. Hopefully now we can really start to kick on and include more match analysis and will be continuing the development of the Top Draw and the software program is now fully tweeked to spot these value opportunities. I will also be adding some articles and other info to help build on the knowledge base...hopefully getting to grips with how to layout the blog for maximum reading enjoyment and profits...stay lucky guys!

Weekend 8th October - LuckyLucas Lower League Special

Betslayer Account (LLL)
Swindon v Hereford - Swindon to Win - 1.44
Charlton v Tranmere - Charlton to Win - 1.64
 
Top Draw
Bury v Exeter - 3.55
Carlisle v Brentford - 3.7
Wycombe v Walsall - 3.5
Bradford v Torquay - 3.6
Crewe v Southend - 3.6
Plymouth v Accrington - 3.65



A weekend special for LLL with the International break. Blog will be starting to take shape and I will be updating some articles and further analysis as time permits this weekd and start ROI and full results breakdown...Stay Lucky guys!