Liverpool v Manchester United (Sky Sports 2 Saturday 15/10/2011 12.45)
Stats Analysis
In a game where there are not many standout stats Liverpool to score the first goal is certainly a good option. Liverpool have scored the 1st goal in 6 of their last 8 home games to similar rated sides and Manchester United have conceded the first goal 5 times in 10 matches away to teams of Liverpool’s rating. Liverpool 6/5 (2.20) to score the first goal of the game looks like its worth of consideration.
As for goals, these sides boast 12 Both to score’s in their combined 20 games this season, this could offer some play although at 1.75 this might not be the best option.
The first goal to be scored after 25 minutes looks a reasonable option as the 1st goal has been scored after 25 minutes in 6 of Liverpools last 8 home games to sides of Manchester Uniteds Rating and in 6 of Manchester Uniteds last 10 games away to team’s of Liverpools rating. The First goal of the game to be scored after 25 minutes can be backed at 10/11 (1.91). As an outside interest if there is to be a goal you would fancy the inform striker Luis Suarez to again trouble a defence with many question marks over it, take him to score anytime.
BetsLayer Trade Zone.
A different way to utilise the first goal statistics above is backing the Over 2.5 at 2.00 and then laying off liability gradually until the 20th minute and this is our recommended strategy for this game. First exit point at 10 minutes (50% liability), rest spread evenly until final exit point at 20 mins. I will cover the above trading strategy further in a future trading article to give a wider view of how to trade this type of postion and how to react to different scenario’s.
Manchester City v Aston Villa
Stats Analysis
Manchester City have won 7 of their last 8 matches to nil and they can be backed at 6/4 (2.50) and this looks like a strong option.
Manchester City have won 7 of their last 8 matches to nil and they can be backed at 6/4 (2.50) and this looks like a strong option.
In eight of Manchester City’s 11 games this season, the second half has produced most goals 11/10 (2.10)
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Manchester City to win to nil 6/4 (2.50)
Second half to produce most goals 11/10 (2.10)
Norwich v Swansea
Stats Analysis
The ratings are suggesting that there is some value in Norwich’s price (2.25). Norwich have a very strong recent home record which reads W9 D5 L1. In the goals markets there is a bias to 3 or more and this has been seen in 8 of Norwich’s last 12 home games and in 8 of Swanseas last 15 away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 11/10 (2.10) and this looks to offer value. 10 of Norwich’s last 15 home games have had a goal in the final 15 minutes. There has also been a goal in the last 15 minutes in 6 of Swanseas last 11 away matches, recommend backing the last goal after 72 mins at Evens (2.00) or laying No goal in-running on the Betting Exchanges
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Over 2.5 goals 11/10 (2.10)
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Look to Lay No Goal after 70 mins for 2.00 or less
Swansea have kept first half clean sheets in 5 of their 7 EPL games, perhaps a time decay trade of the HT 0-0 scoreline could reap rewards.
QPR v Blackburn
Stats Analysis
The ratings are suggesting that there is value in backing QPR to win this game and they are facing a Blackburn team who have a poor record away from home in recent months. QPR can be backed at 10/11 (1.91) to win this match and this looks like a value call. It should be remembered though that QPR are yet to win at home this season and only Bolton and West Brom have worse home records.
As for goals there have been over 2.5 goals in 10 of Blackburns last 15 away games and in 5 of their last 6 away to sides of a similar rating. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00), another alternative might be to take both sides to score 10/11 (1.91)
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QPR to win 11/10 (1.91)
Stoke v Fulham
Stats Analysis
The match odds don’t appear to offer any value compared to the ratings, infact Stoke are slightly short, but have a very strong home record against similar graded sides.
As for goals we shouldn’t expect many only 3 of Fulhams last 10 away games to similar rated sides has seen 3 or more goals as has only 4 of Stokes last 15 home games. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at 4/6 (1.67) but even at this price it would look to offer some value.
The no on both teams to score looks to offer some value as both teams have failed to find the net in 7 of the last 10 respective home and away games featuring both these sides and this is priced at 5/6 (1.83).
Fulham have only conceded 1 goal in the first half in 1 of their last 7 away games to similar rated sides. Also Stoke have only conceded a goal in the first half in 3 of 10 matches at home to similar rated sides. The first goal of the game to come after 25 minutes can be backed at 10/11 (1.91)
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1st goal to be scored after 25 minutes 10/11 (1.91). Again this is ideal for the Trade Zone approach above, as it’s a non UK tv game we will use the straight bet though.
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Stoke won all 6 of the games when they were leading at HT this season
Wigan v Bolton
Stats Analysis
The ratings are suggesting there is good value in backing Wigan to win this game and Bolton are in awful form having lost 5 of their opening 6 matches this season and 11 of their last 12 including last season 13/10 (2.30)
Both teams to score is certainly of interest though and this has been seen in 7 of Wigans last 10 at home to similar rated sides and in 8 of Boltons last 10 away games to similar rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at 3/4 (1.75).
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Both teams to score 3/4 (1.75)
Chelsea v Everton(ESPN Saturday 15/10/2011 17.30)
Stats Analysis
The ratings are suggesting that there is no real value in Chelseas current price of 4/11 (1.36) and although they do have a particularly strong home record they have drawn at home to Everton in all of their last 5 meetings at Stamford Bridge.
The draw is priced at 4/1 (5.00) and looks to offer good value given the clubs previous encounters at Stamford Bridge.
Both teams to score seems a strong option as Both teams have scored in 4 of Evertons last 6 away at top rated sides and in 6 of Chelseas last 8 home games to similar rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at 11/10 (2.10) and again is worth consideration.
There is a good chance that this game could have a tight start and there has been a goal scored before 27 minutes in only 3 of Chelseas last 10 home games to sides of Everton’s rating and in only 4 of Evertons last 10 away games to top rated sides.
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The first goal of the game to be scored after 27 minutes 10/11 (1.91)
BetsLayer Trade Zone.
A different way to utilise the first goal statistics above is backing the Over 2.5 at 2.00 and then laying off liability gradually until the 20th minute and this is our recommended starategy for this game. First exit point at 10 minutes (50% liability), rest spread evenly until final exit point at 20 mins
West Brom v Wolves
Stats Analysis
The ratings are in line with the odds on offer, there could be some value in opposing WBA, but I feel there are better ways to profit on this game.
There is a strong draw bias to the game and the draw can be backed at 12/5 (3.40)
As for goals there is a definite bias to 3 or more especially in the case of West Brom where 4 of their last 5 home games have seen Over 2.5 goals as has 11 of their last 15 home games. The trend is not as strong for Wolves as only 4 of their last 10 away games to similar rated teams have seen 3 or more goals. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00) and looks a reasonable option.
Both teams have scored in all 5 of West Broms previous 5 matches at home to similar rated sides and in 6 of Wolves last 10 away. Both teams to score can be backed at 5/6 (1.83) and this looks like a particularly strong bet
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Both teams to score 5/6 (1.83)
Arsenal v Sunderland (Sky Sports 1 Sunday 16/10/2011 13.30)
Stats Analysis
Arsenal can be backed at 4/9 (1.44) and this does not offer much value given Arsenals present troubles.
If you do think Arsenal will win the game then a viable alternative would be Arsenal to win to nil as Sunderland have not found the net in 4 of their last 6 matches away to similar rated teams as Arsenal. Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 9 of their last 13 home games. Arsenal to win to nil can be backed at 7/5 (2.40), there is also a good chance it will be by the Half Time / Full Time result Arsenal have won 7 of their last 10 home victories to similar rated sides by this method and all 9 of Sunderlands last 9 away defeats to sides of Arsenal’s rating have come by this method.
BetsLayer Value Highlight
Arsenal to win Half Time / Full Time 11/10 (2.10)
Newcastle v Spurs (Sky Sports 1 Sunday 16/10/2011 16:00)
Stats Analysis
There is a very strong draw bias to this game and the draw can be backed at 12/5 (3.40) and this offers value.
As for goals, we should see a few, there have been 3 or more goals in 10 of Newcastles last 15 at home and in 3 of their last 4 home games to similar rated sides. For Spurs there has been 3 or more goals in 6 of their last 8 away games to similar rated sides. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 4/5 (1.80) and this offers value.
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Over 2.5 goals 4/5 (1.80)
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Over 1.5 goals in the first half would seem worth consideration. There have been 2 or more goals in the first half in 10 of Newcastles last 15 home games and in 4 of Spurs last 7 away games to similar rated sides. The 1st half to contain Over 1.5 goals can be backed at 15/8 (2.88)
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