EPL Match Analysis Weekend 22nd October.

Wolves v Swansea (Sky Sports 2 Saturday 22/10/2011 12.45)

Stats Analysis

 A really tough game to call and the odds do seem in line with the ratings, Wolves have been in awful form losing 5 games without really threatening. Their home form against similar rated sides is also mixed with a record of W5 D1 L4.

If you do fancy Wolves to win Dutching the Wolves victory by 1 or 2 goals would make some sense as 4 of their last 5 victories at home to similar rated sides have come via this method 13/10 (2.30)

As for goals then there is a bias to 3 or more and this has been seen 10 of Wolves last 14 home games and in 3 of Swansea’s 4 away matches in the Premiership. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00) and looks worth consideration.

There looks to be early goals in this match and indeed in 8 of Wolves last 10 games to similar opposition there has been a goal scored before the 27 th minute. The first goal to be scored before 27 minutes can be backed at Evens (2.00). Swansea have scored in their last 4 games including 2 away games and despite their lack of goals Wolves have also found the net in 7 of the last 10 home games, so both to score offers good value at 5/6 (1.83)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Both to Score 5/6 (1.83)

Aston Villa v West Brom 

Stats Analysis 

The draw is priced at 13/5 (3.60) and this looks to offer some value. West Brom have scored four goals in the first 5 minutes of their games and for a longer odds bet the WBA/Draw double result could be worth a sniff at 16/1 (17.0).

As for goals, even with Aston Villa’s general form there is a bias to Over 2.5 goals as this has been seen in 7 of Aston Villa’s last 11 at home to similar rated sides and in 7 of West Broms last 10 away games to similar rated sides Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 20/21 (1.95).

Both teams to score looks a strong option as both teams have scored in 8 of Aston villa’s last 15 home games and in 7 of West Brom’s last 10 away games 4/5 (1.80). Aston Villa have scored in both halves in 8 of their last 12 home games to similar rated sides and they can be backed at 2/1 (3.00) to score in both halves and either of these options is worth considering.

 BetsLayer Value Highlight

Both to Score 4/5 (1.80)

BetsLayer Trade Zone 

Look to Lay Aston Villa at 11/10 (2.1) or under with a view of trading out for a nice profit if West Brom start well, trade out if there is no goal at 20 mins…otherwise let it ride (1 point trade)

Bolton v Sunderland

Stats Analysis

There is a fairly strong draw bias to this game and the draw is priced at 12/5 (3.40) and this offers value and is certainly worthy of consideration

As for goals then there is a bias to 3 or more and Over 2.5 goals has been seen in 10 of Boltons last 15 home games and in 7 of Sunderlands last 10 away games to similar rated sides. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00) and this offers some reasonable value.

When facing similar opposition both teams to score looks a good option and both sides tend not to keep clean sheets. Both teams have scored in 7 of Boltons last 10 home games and in 6 of Sunderlands last 10 away to similar rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at 8/11 (1.73) however this price is a little on the low side to be a value selection.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals Evens (2.00)

Newcastle v Wigan

Stats Analysis

The match odds don’t appear to offer any value compared to the ratings, some slight value in Wigan’s price (7.2) but that’s not really an attractive option. Probably the best method if you fancy a home win is Dutching the Newcastle victory by 1 or 2 goals and this pays a touch over Evens (2.04). Wigan are quite resilient away from home and have lost by the 1 or 2 goal margin in all 8 of their last 8 away defeats to similar rated sides.


As for goals then there is a definite bias to 3 or more and this has been seen in 10 of Newcastles last 15 home games and in 5 of Wigans last 10 away to similar rated sides. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 20/21 (1.95) and this looks a decent option.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals 20/21 (1.95)

 

Liverpool v Norwich (ESPN Saturday 22/10/2011 17.30)

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Liverpool to win this game.  Liverpool do have a very strong record at home sides and are priced at 1/3 (1.33)
 
Obviously this price is very low and we can look at ways to ramp this price up. Liverpool to win by the Half time/full time result would seem a reasonable option as Liverpool have won 8 of their last 10 victories at home to similar rated sides by the Half Time / Full time result 5/6 (1.83)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Liverpool to win via the Half Time / Full Time result 5/6 (1.83)
 

Man Utd v Man City (Sky Sports 1 Sunday 23/10/2011 13.30)

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting there is value in Manchester Uniteds current price 11/10 (2.1) and they have a superb record at home to fellow top rated sides which reads W9 D0 L1.

For the confident United fan, backing Manchester United to win by the half time/full time result may also be of interest and certainly offers value as Manchester United have won their last 5 matches at home to top rated sides by this result (3.50)

As for goals then there is a definite bias to 3 or more and this has been seen in 8 of Manchester Uniteds last 9 at home to top rated sides and in 4 of Manchester Citys last 7 away to similar rated sides Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 5/6 (1.83).

The second half has been the highest scoring in 5 of Manchester Uniteds last 9 at home to top rated sides and in 5 of Manchester Citys last 7 away games. The second half to be the highest scoring can be backed at 11/10 (2.10)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Manchester United to win 11/10 (2.10)

The second half to be the highest scoring 11/10 (2.10)

Fulham v Everton

Stats Analysis

There is a strong draw bias to the game and this can be backed at 12/5 (3.40) and this looks to offer value. Indeed if you think the game will end a draw then there is value in backing the Draw/Draw half/time full/time result. All 5 of Fulham’s last 5 draws against similar rated sides have come via this result as have 3 of Everton’s last 5 draws away to similar sides. The draw/draw can be backed at 4/1 (5.00)

As for goals there is a bias to 2 or under and this has been seen in 6 of Fulhams last 10 at home to similar sides and in 9 of Evertons last 15 away games.  Under 2.5 goals can be backed at 4/6 (1.67) which doesn’t offer much value.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The Draw at12/5 (3.4)

Arsenal v Stoke

Stats Analysis

The ratings are very much inline with the odds available, however Stoke have a very poor record away to top rated sidesnand indeed have a generally poor record away from the Britannia stadium where they have lost 10 of their last 14 away matches. Arsenal can be backed at 3/5 (1.60), which given the fact they were 1.25 for the same game last season does offer some value.

A stronger option could very well be Arsenal to win to nil as Stoke have only scored in 1 of their last 9 away matches to top rated sides. Arsenal can be backed at 7/4 (2.75) to be the only team to score and this would seem a great option.

Finally it may be worth backing Arsenal to score in both halves as Arsenal have scored in both halves in 9 of their last 14 at home vs similar rated sides to Stoke and Stoke have conceded in both halves in 7 of their last 9 away games to top rated sides 23/17 (2.35)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Arsenal to win to nil 7/4 (2.75)

  

Blackburn v Spurs

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is value in backing Spurs to win this game and they can be backed at Evens (2.00). Spurs have won 3 of their last 5 away games.

The draw is priced at 11/4 (3.75) and this offers some value and should be considered.

There have been 3 or more goals in 7 of Spurs last 10 away games to similar rated sides and there may be a small amount of value in backing Over 2.5 goals at 5/6 (1.83)

Late goals look likely as there has been a goal scored after 75 minutes in 6 of Spurs last 10 away games to similar rated sides and in 5 of Blackburns last 8 home games to similar rated sides. The last goal of the game to come after 75 minutes can be backed at 10/11 (1.91)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals at 5/6 (1.83)

Spurs to win (2.00)

BetsLayer Trade Zone

Look to lay no goal after 70 minutes at under Evens (2.00)

QPR V Chelsea (Sky Sports 1 Sunday 23/10/2011 16:00)

Stats Analysis 

The draw can be backed at 4/1 (5.00) and this looks to offer some value.

As for goals then there are some very mixed stats coming from both sides to make an opinion. However both teams to score at Evens (2.00) certainly makes for some appeal as Chelsea have conceded in all 5 of their previous 5 away games to similar rated sides and in 7 of their opening 8 matches this season. So at even money this certainly makes for some appeal.

Given the nature of this derby match there could be a slow start to the game and the first goal to come after 23 minutes looks of some appeal as the first goal of the game has come after 23 minutes in 6 of Chelseas last 10 away games 10/11 (1.91)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

first goal of the game after 23 minutes 10/11 (1.91)

BetsLayer Trade Zone 

Look to utilise the first goal stats above by backing the Under 2.5 at (2.3) and using the strategy seen last week, lay off 50% at 10 minutes and then the remainder until the 20th Minute.