BetsLayer Sunday Special Selections Nov 27th

Right here are the updated selections for this sunday, lets make some money!


BetsLayer Account

Swansea v Aston Villa - The half time draw 5/4 (2.25)
Liverpool v Manchester City - Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 10/11 (1.91)

Top Draw 

Swansea v Aston Villa (3.55)
Liverpool v Manchester City (3.5)

BetsLayer Weekend Selections Nov 26-27th

Right here are the selections for this weekend, lets make some money


BetsLayer Account

West Brom v Spurs - Dutch the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals 7/5 (2.40).
Sunderland v Wigan - Dutch the Sunderland win by 1 or 2 goals 6/5 (2.20)
Bolton v Everton - 1st goal of the game to be scored before 27 minutes Evens (2.00)
Arsenal v Fulham - No on Both teams to score 21/20 (2.05)
Swansea v Aston Villa - The half time draw 5/4 (2.25)
Liverpool v Manchester City - Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 10/11 (1.91)

Top Draw 

Bolton v Everton (3.45)
Ipswich v Reading (3.5)
Portsmouth v Leicester (3.65)
Bury v Preston (3.45)
Rochdale v Brentford (3.5)

Luckylucas Lower League

Crystal Palace v Millwall - Crystal Palace to win (2.7)
Leeds v Barnsley - Leeds to win 4/5 (1.8)
Burton v AFC Wimbledon - Burton to win (2.3)

Full Weekend Premier League Betting Value Analysis (November 26-27th)

Stoke v Blackburn (12.45 Saturday Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Stoke have been struggling in the Premier League but they have a chance to get back to winning ways when Blackburn visit the Britannia stadium. They have lost their last 4 games shipping 14 goals in the process, but remain a difficult side to play against. The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in Stoke’s current price of 4/5 (1.80)

Stoke have won 6 of their last 8 victories by 1 or 2 goals and Blackburn have lost 6 of their last 8 away games by the same margin. Dutching the Stoke win by 1 or 2 goals 11/10 (2.10) or better looks better value than the win.

Blackburn remain in a whole load of trouble, sitting second bottom and without a win in 7 games. They have drawn 4 from their 6 away games and will again attempt to hold out for a draw. The draw can be backed at 5/2 (3.50) and this does offer some value and it should be considered.

Blackburn can be backed at 4/1 (5.00) and this offers some value. However if you do fancy Blackburn to do well then you are best keeping the draw on your side and Blackburn can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.5 11/10 (2.10).

As for goals Blackburn have conceded more than 2 goals a game away from Ewood Park this season. Stoke when facing sides of a similar rating there is a bias to 3 or more goals with 5 of their last 8 home games having seen 3 or more. 7 of Blackburn’s last 10 away to similar rated sides have also seen Over 2.5 goals as has 4 of their last 6 opening away games this season. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 19/20 (1.95)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Both teams to Score 10/11 (1.91).

Norwich v QPR

Stats Analysis

Norwich have yet to convince that they won’t be another Burnley or Blackpool, setting off in fine style only to fall apart in the New year. They nicked a couple of lucky results at Liverpool and Blackburn, but their luck appears to be running out with two defeats on the spin. Norwich can be backed at 5/4 (2.25) and this would seem the best option should you fancy Norwich to win, however the ratings indicate there isn’t much value in this price.

The draw can be backed at 5/2 (3.50) and this looks to offer good value and is worth consideration.

Its hard to trust QPR, they have put in some great displays, posting away wins at Everton, Wolves plus Stoke last weekend, but as well as getting a mauling off Spurs they followed previous great displays at Wolves and Aston Villa by getting hammered 6-0 at Fulham. QPR can be backed at 5/2 (3.50) and this looks to offer some value. However as the draw is so strong in this game if you do fancy QPR to win then we would look to keep it on our side and back QPR on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at 4/5 (1.8)

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more. Over 2.5 goals have been seen in 11 of Norwich’s last 15 home games including 4 of their opening 6 in general and home games and in 4 of QPR’s opening 6 general and away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 5/6 (1.83).

Norwich have aso not kept a clean sheet in 13 matches this season so both teams to score which has been seen in 13 of Norwich’s last 15 home games including 5 of their last 6 home games. Although this is nowhere near as strong for QPR where both teams have scored in only 5 of their last 15 away games, the trend is strong enough for Norwich and with both sides form to make the available price value 3/4 (1.75)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The draw can be backed at 5/2 (3.50)

West Brom v Spurs

Stats Analysis

These two drew both games last season, but Tottenham’s magnificent run of form can continue at The Hawthorns, where Manchester United, Liverpool and Stoke have already won this season. Spurs were excellent against Aston Villa on Monday and their pace on the counter-attack should be too much for a leaky West Brom defence. The ratings are in line with whats on offer and in form Spurs can be backed at 19/20 (1.95). A better alternative is to dutch the Spurs win by 1 or 2 goals. All 6 of Spurs last 6 away victories have come via this margin, as has all 4 of West Brom’s last 4 home defeats. Dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals pays 7/5 (2.40).

There is a quite strong draw bias to the game and the draw can be backed at an attractive looking 11/4 (3.75)

As for goals West Brom have lost all four of their matches against teams in the top seven and their record against teams above them is 1 0 4 conceding 10 goals. Spurs on the other hand have won all 4 away games played against sides below them, scoring 2 or more goals each time. There has been Over 2.5 goals in 9 of Spurs last 15 away games and in 9 of West Broms last 15 home games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 4/5 (1.80)

Both teams to score could also be a viable option as both teams have scored in 9 of Spurs last 15 away games and in 10 of West Brom’s last 15 home games. Both teams to score can be backed at 4/5 (1.80).

We could see a fast start to the game as there has been a goal scored before the 25th minute in 11 of West Brom’s last 15 home games and in 10 of Spurs last 15 away games. The first goal of the game to come before the 24th minute can be backed at Evens (2.00)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals pays 7/5 (2.40).

Sunderland v Wigan

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Sunderland to win this game and they are hard to fancy at odds-on, but they take on a Wigan team in dire trouble. Sunderland have won only two of 13 games this season, but the Latics are offering up chances galore and you can see Sunderland creating plenty. Wigan have now gone 10 games without a win and with Sunderland unbeaten at home to sides in the bottom half of the table is difficult to see it changing. Sunderland can be backed at 8/11 (1.73)

Despite Wigan’s poor away form they are very rarely beaten heavily and if you do fancy Sunderland to do well then it could be worth considering dutching the Sunderland victory by 1 or 2 goals. All 8 of Wigan’s last 8 defeats away to similar rated sides have come via this margin. Dutching the Sunderland win by 1 or 2 goals 6/5 (2.20)

The draw can be backed at 11/4 (3.75) and at this price it certainly offers good value

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more and Over 2.5 goals has been seen in 7 of Sunderland’s last 10 at home to low rated sides and in 6 of Wigan’s last 10 away to similar rated sides. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 10/11 (1.91)

Both teams to score certainly makes for some appeal as Both teams have found the net in 7 of Sunderland’s last 10 at home to similar rated sides and in 6 of Wigan’s last 10 away to similar rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at 10/11 (1.91)

We should expect some late drama to the game as there has been a goal scored after 73 minutes in 8 of Sunderland’s last 10 at home to similar rated sides and in 6 of Wigan’s last 10 away to similar rated sides. The final goal of the game to be scored after 73 minutes can be backed at 10/11 (1.91).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutching the Sunderland win by 1 or 2 goals 6/5 (2.20)

Man Utd v Newcastle

Stats Analysis

Newcastle's bubble is a long way from bursting but it could be deflated a little more by a defeat at Old Trafford. The Magpies have made the most of a kind set of early-season fixtures but they look inferior to a Manchester United side, who have benefited hugely from Nemanja Vidic's return. Manchester United have won five of their last six matches at home to Newcastle. The ratings are suggesting there’s not much value in Manchester Uniteds current price of 4/11 (1.36)

However their home record against similar rated sides to Newcastle is very impressive winning all 10 of their previous 10 matches and 8 of them to nil. Manchester United Win to nil is a value option at 11/10 (2.10). Dutching Manchester United to win by 1 or 2 goals also makes sense and all 5 of their last 5 victories have come via this margin Dutching the Manchester United victory by 1 or 2 goals at 10/11 (1.9).

Manchester United have conceded just 9 goals in 6 games and 6 of those were against Manchester City, Newcastle have the second best defence in the top flight, conceding 11 goals in 12 games. 3 or more goals offers no real value priced at 7/10 (1.70)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutch the Manchester United victory by 1 or 2 goals at 10/11 (1.9)

Chelsea v Wolves

Stats Analysis

Wolves are really struggling and they won’t get any sympathy from a bruised Chelsea smarting from two league home defeats and a Champions league loss to Bayer Leverkusen. Chelsea are very short 1/4 (1.25) and the ratings don’t show much value there, The Half Time / Full Time victory is worth consideration as Chelsea have won 8 of their last 10 at home to low rated sides by this margin and Wolves have lost 6 of their last 10 away to top rated sides by this result. Chelsea can be backed at 8/11 (1.73).

Chelsea won 6 of these games to nil and Wolves lost 6 of their last 10 to nil and Chelsea can be backed at 20/21 (1.95). Chelsea have shipped seven goals in those home defeats to Arsenal and Liverpool and need to get back on track against struggling Wolves. However it's hard to back the Blues to keep a clean sheet against any opposition at the moment and they have conceded 11 goals in six home league games.

The draw can be backed at 11/2 (6.50) and this offers value but not much appeal

If you do fancy Wolves to do well then there is definitely some advantage in backing them +2 goals on the Asian Handicap at 76/100 (1.76)

Chelsea seem to always have plenty of second half action and the 2nd half has been the highest scoring half in 13 of Chelseas last 17 home games and in 4 of Wolves last 5 away games to top rated sides. The 2nd half to be the highest scoring can be backed at 11/10 (2.10)

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The 2nd half to be the highest scoring can be backed at 11/10 (2.10)

BetsLayer Trade Zone

There have been late goals seen at Stamford Bridge recently where 11 of Chelseas’s last 15 home games have seen a goal scored after 77 minutes. The last goal of the game to be scored after 77 minutes can be backed at 5/6 (1.83) or alternatively look to Lay the no goal in-running.

Bolton v Everton

Stats Analysis

Bolton have improved slightly in the last month, but that doesn’t mean their troubles are behind them. The Trotters are still in the bottom 3 and have conceded the most goals in the Premier League, 29 goals. Bolton can be backed at 2/1 (3.00) and they do have a good home record against similar rated sides winning 7 of their last 10 home matches. If you do fancy Bolton to do well then you’re best option is to keep the draw on your side and Bolton can be backed on the Asian Handicap off scratch +0 goals at 23/17 (2.35).

Everton themselves are struggling and indeed are only 4 points clear of Bolton and have lost 4 of 6 games, they do have a great record against sides in the bottom half of the table, winning all 4. Everton can be backed at 6/4 (2.50) and this is a value call, if you fancy Everton to do well then it could pay to back them on the Asian handicap -0.25 goals at 17/16 (2.06)

Bolton have conceded 17 goals in six home league matches, there is a bias here towards 3 or more, Bolton have 10 of their last 15 home games have seen 3 or more goals as have 7 of their last 10 home matches to similar rated sides. For Everton 7 of their last 13 away matches have seen 3 or more goals including their last 3. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 9/10 (1.90)

Early goals could be expected here, there has been a goal scored before the 27th minute in 9 of Everton’s last 10 away games to similar rated sides and in 4 of Bolton’s last 4 home games to similar rated sides. The 1st goal of the game to be scored before 27 minutes can be backed at Evens (2.00)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

1st goal of the game to be scored before 27 minutes can be backed at Evens (2.00)

Arsenal v Fulham (17.30 Saturday ESPN)

Stats Analysis

Arsenal can reflect on a relatively successful couple of months, there are still problems with defence, but Thomas Vermaelen’s return has helped keep 2 clean sheets in the last 3 games, but its his partners that don’t exactly fill with confidence and Stoke, Sunderland and Bolton have all scored at the Emirates Stadium. Arsenal can be backed at 5/11 (1.45) and this price offers no real value.

Arsenal to win to nil may be a good option as Arsenal have kept 9 clean sheets in their last 15 home games and Fulham have scored away to top rated sides in only 4 of their last 10 away. Arsenal can be backed at 16/11 (2.45) to win to nil

The draw can be backed at 7/2 (4.50) and although this offers value it offers little appeal

Fulham, the side that could never win away, have kept five clean sheets on their last seven road trips and picked up four points from the last two away league games. Fulham can be backed at 7/1 (8.00) and this price offers some value. If you do fancy Fulham to do well then your best option is to back them on the Asian Handicap +1.25 goals at a shade over 5/6 (1.84)

Arsenal’s last eight Premier League games have each produced three goals or more Overs (1.75)

No on both teams to score could interest as both teams have scored in only 5 of Arsenal’s last 15 home games and in only 2 of Fulhams last 10 away games. The No on Both teams to score can be backed at 21/20 (2.05)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

No on Both teams to score can be backed at 21/20 (2.05)

Swansea v Aston Villa (13.30 Sunday Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Aston Villa were run ragged in their defeat at Spurs and they may not see much of the ball against an accomplished Swansea side. The Swans were unlucky to lose to Manchester United in their last home game and with improved finishing they could give Villa a tough task. The ratings are suggesting that there is some value in backing Swansea to win this game. Swansea can be backed at 13/10 (2.30)

There is a strong draw bias to the game and the draw can be backed at 5/2 (3.50) and has to be given real consideration.

Swansea have conceded just two goals in six home games this season However Aston Villa have only failed to find the net twice in their last 15 away games. Moreover they have also scored in each of their last 10 away games to low rated sides, both teams scored in 8 of these games. Both teams to score can be backed at 4/5 (1.80)

The 2/3 goals in the total goals market certainly looks of interest as 9 of Aston Villa’s last 10 away to low rated sides have seen 2 or 3 goals. This has also been the total in 8 of Swansea’s last 15 home games 2/3 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00)

The Half Time draw. Aston Villa have been level at the break in 5 of their last 6 away low rated sides and Swansea have been level at the break in 3 of their opening 6 home matches this season . The half time draw can be backed at 5/4 (2.25)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The half time draw can be backed at 5/4 (2.25)

Liverpool v Man City (16.00 Sunday Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Liverpool have kept just one clean sheet in their six home games. Glen Johnson's winner at Stamford Bridge was a major boost for Liverpool but they could come back down to earth when the league leaders visit Anfield. The Reds have drawn their last three at home and could be vulnerable against City's stellar strikeforce. If you do fancy Liverpool to do well then its probably best is to back them on the Asian Handicap +0 goals at 11/10 (2.10)

There is a strong draw bias to the game and the draw can be backed at 12/5 (3.40)

Manchester City can be backed at 6/4 (2.50) and this price offers some value. Liverpool are particularly strong at home though so if you want to keep the draw completely on your side then Manchester City can be backed off scratch +0 goals at 7/8 (1.88)

So lets go for goals, one reason City are clear at the top is the cavalier approach they have taken when playing other top sides and there have been 4 goals in all 5 games against other top half teams. Over 2.5 goals and this has been seen in 10 of Manchester City’s last 15 away games Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 10/11 (1.91). Both sides have scored in Manchester Citys last 6 games. Both Teams to score 8/11 (1.73)

The 2nd half has seen Over 1.5 goals in 5 of Liverpool’s last 9 home games to top rated sides and in 4 of Manchester City’s last 6 away to similar rated sides. The 2nd half to contain Over 1.5 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00) The 2nd half has been the highest scoring in 5 of Liverpools last 10 home games to top rated sides and in 5 of Manchester City’s last 6 away games to similar rated sides. The 2nd half to be the highest scoring can be backed at 11/10 (2.10)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 10/11 (1.91).

BetsLayer Full results review and general advice

Another very pleasing weekend, the Premier League bets continue to perform brilliantly with 3 out of 5 this weekend on the Account bets (i.e My bets) and for the second week in a row 8 winning Value Highlights showing the power of the Match Value Analysis reports. If you had followed all the Value Highlights during this period it would have produced 12 points profit!! or £300 to £25 stakes.

Results Analysis

BetsLayer Account = 25 selections with 14 winners - £625 staked with £748.5 returned ROI = 19.76%

In the Premier league its even better with 21 selections with the 14 winners - £525 staked with £748.5 returned ROI = 42.57%

The Top Draw is continuing to hold its own and again an injury time goal cost us what would have put the system into profit. I have had some feedback about what to do with the info provided, so I'll give a little background. The Top Draw is inspired by fellow Blogger Cassini and I set it up as a way to churn money to reduce Betfair Premium Charges. It is built around my unique ratings system and then I reduce down depending on numbers and other info, now most punters might not want to back as many as 8-9 draws a week, so maybe pick 2-3 a week, i.e just the Premier League/Championship

Top Draw = 50 selections with 13 winners - £1250 staked with £1161.25 returned ROI = -7.1 %

Luckylucas had a bad week, with 2 losing bets, but being quite a selective system and featuring some longer odds bets its a little early to judge.

Luckylucas = 16 selections with 6 winners - £400 staked with £325.5 returned ROI = -18.62 %

In summary, we are now -£40 across every selection (not including Value Highlights) at £25 stakes, but obviously our Premier League record is phenomenal with a ROI of over 40%. This weeks Full Premier League Match Value Analysis and Value Highlight selections will be added to the site soon!

Spurs v Aston Villa - Premier League Betting Value Analysis 21/11/11

Spurs v Aston Villa (8pm Monday Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Aston Villa maybe in the top half of the Premier League but this flatters them and they face a tough task at inform Spurs. Some of Aston Villa's statistics are alarming, their Shot, Shot on Target and Corner differences (Villa minus opposition) are all in the bottom 3 of the Premier League. The ratings are indicating that there is not much value in Spurs current price and its short enough to give a swerve. They are though in very good form and indeed they have won their last 7 home games against similar rated sides. Spurs can be backed at 4/7 (1.57) If you do fancy Spurs to win this game then dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals makes sense as 7 of their last 8 home victories have come via this margin. Aston Villa are certainly resilient away from home and have only lost 3 in their last 15 away games. Dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals evens (2.00)

The draw is priced at 13/5 (4.25) and this offers value and certainly should not be dismissed given Aston Villa's recent form.

Aston Villa can be backed at 6/1 (7.00) and this offers a small amount of value. However if you do fancy Villa to do well then your best option is to back them on the Asian Handicap +1 goal at 21/20 (2.05).

As for goals we should expect a few, Spurs have an average of 3.6 total goals per game this season and 11 of Aston Villa's last 15 away games have seen 3 goals or more. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 7/10 (1.70) and despite this lowish price this still offers good value.

Both teams to score is also a strong option and again Both teams have scored in 14 of Aston Villa's last 15 away games and also in 7 of Spurs last 10 home games to similar rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at 3/4 (1.75)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals Evens (2.00) or better

BetsLayer Account

Over 2.5 goals 7/10 (1.70)

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Thanks guys, keep reading and we'll make ourselves some money in these recession filled times. 6 out of 8 Value Highlights so far in the Premier League, where our return on investment on the Account bets still stands at a stunning +40%..full review after the weekend games are finished, stay lucky BetsLayer.

Weekend 19-20th November BetsLayer Selections

Right here are the selections for this weekend, lets hope for a good one after the enforced 'International' break.

BetsLayer Account
Sunderland v Fulham  Draw (3.4)
Everton v Wolves  Both teams to score Evens (2.00)
West Brom v Bolton Bolton +0.5 goals at 9/10 (1.90)
Swansea v Manchester United Lay Manchester United to win the first half Evens (2.00)
Chelsea v Liverpool  2nd half to be the highest scoring 11/10 (2.10)

Top Draw
Derby v Hull (3.45)
Brentford v Charlton (3.6)
Tranmere v Sheff Weds (3.5)
Colchester v MK dons (3.5)
Bradford v Rotheram (3.6)
Wimbledon v Swindon (3.6)
Hereford v Burton (3.45)
Hibs v Kilmarnock (3.55)

Luckylucas Lower League
Birmingham v Peterboro Birmingham to win 10/11 (1.9)
Scunthorpe v Hartlepool Scunthorpe to win 10/11 (1.9)

EPL Betting Value Analysis - Weekend 19-20th November

Norwich v Arsenal (12.45 Saturday Sky Sports 2)

Stats Analysis

Norwich have been playing well at Carrow Road but the Canaries may get their wings clipped here. The ratings are suggesting there is not much value in backing the improving Arsenal but they do have an excellent away record to similar rated sides which reads W7 D2 L1. Arsenal can be backed at 7/10 (1.70) and this looks underpriced.

The draw is priced at 14/5 (3.80) and although this offers some value it offers little appeal considering Arsenal’s recent record at similar sides.

Norwich can be backed at 17/4 (5.25) and this price does offer value

As for goals it looks likely that we will see a few, 14 of Arsenal’s last 15 away games have seen Over 2.5 goals and is still value priced at 4/6 (1.67). Backing Over 3.5 goals also looks to offer value as 4 or more goals have been seen in 6 of Arsenals last 12 away to similar rated sides and 10 of Arsenals last 15 in general. Over 3.5 goals has also been seen in 6 of Norwich’s last 9 home games. Over 3.5 goals can be backed at 7/4 (2.75).

Both teams to score again looks strong as both teams have scored in 13 of Norwich’s last 15 home games and they have yet to keep a clean sheet in the league, also seen in 12 of Arsenal’s last 15 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at 4/6 (1.67)

Arsenal have scored in both halves in 8 of their last 10 away matches to similar rated sides and in 5 of 10 away games generally. This is priced at 11/8 (2.38). Late goals have been a large part of both teams general home and away form and a goal has been seen after 75 minutes in 10 of Norwich’s last 15 home games and in 11 of Arsenals last 15 away games. The last goal of the game to come after 75 minutes can be backed at 10/11 (1.91)

BetsLayer Value Highlight  

Arsenal to score in both halves 11/8 (2.38).

Stoke v QPR

Stats Analysis

Stoke are always a handful at the Britannia Stadium, but QPR could prove difficult to break down here. The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in Stokes current price. They do though have a decent home record winning 8 of their last 14 home games. Stoke are priced at 4/5 (1.80). In an effort to find an alternative with more value 6 of Stokes last 9 home victories have come via the half time/full time result as has all 3 of QPRs 3 losses this season. Stoke can be backed to win via the Half Time / Full Time result at 19/10 (2.90) which seems to offer more value than the home win price.

The draw is priced at 13/5 (3.60) and this looks to offer good value.

QPR are priced at 4/1 (5.00) and this looks to offer value. If you do fancy QPR to do well then you are best keeping the draw on your side and QPR can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at 22/19 (2.16).

As for goals generally we shouldn’t expect many, there have been 2 or less goals in 10 of Stokes last 15 home games and in 9 of QPRs last 15 away games. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at 4/5 (1.80) and although this looks to offer some value its difficult to be confident when both have had heavy defeats in their recent past.

The No on Both teams to score looks a strong option as both teams have scored in only 6 of Stokes last 15 home games and in 4 of QPRs last 15 away games. The No on Both teams to score can be backed at 10/11 (1.91) and this looks very good value given the above. However Stoke have not kept a clean sheet in their last 5 across all competitions.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

No on Both teams to score 10/11 (1.91)

Sunderland v Fulham

Stats Analysis

Fulham were unlucky not to get something out of the 3-1 home defeat to Spurs and if they can reproduce that kind of performance they should be able to get a result here. Sunderland are priced at 13/10 (2.30) to win this game and in truth this offers no real value.

There is a very strong draw bias to the game and the draw can be backed at (3.40). However although the draw is strong here it only offers a little value.

Fulham are priced at 11/5 (3.20) and this looks to offer some value. It must be remembered that Fulhams home form is far stronger than their away form. If you do fancy Fulham to do well then you are best keeping the draw on your side and Fulham can be backed on the Asian Handicap + 0.5 goals at 7/10 (1.70)

In a game where there is very little value stats it could be worth looking at Sunderland to score the 1st goal of the game. When home to similar rated sides Sunderland have scored the 1st goal of the game in 5 of 9 matches and when facing similar rated sides away Fulham have conceded the first goal of the game in 5 of 9 matches. Sunderland can be backed at 5/6 (1.83).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The Draw (3.4)

Everton v Wolves

Stats Analysis

Games between these two sides have generally been close run affairs. The ratings are suggesting there is very little value in Evertons current price 4/7 (1.57). Also their record at home to similar rated sides is not that strong W4 D4 L2. If you do fancy Everton to win this game then dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals stands out as all 8 of their previous 8 home victories have come via this margin as have 7 of Wolves last 9 away defeats. Dutching the Everton victory by 1 or 2 goals 20/21 (1.96).

There is a bias towards the draw and this can be backed at 3/1 (4.00) and this price offers some value. The last 2 games between these 2 at Everton have also resulted in this outcome.

Alternately Wolves can be backed +1 goal at 5/6 (1.83) and given both teams recent home and away record seems reasonable value.

Both teams to score certainly looks value as both teams have scored in 6 of Everton’s last 10 away to similar rated sides and in 8 of Wolves last 14 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at Evens (2.00).

Everton when playing similar rated sides at home the 1st goal of the game has been scored after the 25 minute in 7 of the last 10 home games and in 6 of Wolves last 10 away games. The first goal of the game to come after 25 minutes can be backed at 10/11 (1.91).

As above there could be a tight start to this game 6 of Everton’s last 10 home games similar rated sides have been level at the break (4 of the last 6) and 5 of Wolves last 10 away games to similar rated sides (3 of the last 4). The half time draw can be backed at 5/4 (2.25).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Both teams to score Evens (2.00).

Man City v Newcastle

Stats Analysis 

Manchester City are now odds on to win the Premier league and have won their last 8 in all competitions playing some fantastic football, especially the mecurial David Silva with 4 goals in the last 11 games. The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Manchester City to win this game at 3/10 (1.30). They can be backed at 9/10 (1.90) to win via the Half time / Full time result and this doesn’t look too bad as 8 of Manchester Citys last 10 victories at home to similar rated sides have come via this result.

The draw is priced at 9/2 (5.50) and offers value if not very much appeal

Finally in a game that Manchester City should win there is very little standout value. However looking at the stats it may be worth backing the last goal of the game to be scored before 76 minutes at 10/11 (1.91). The last goal of the game has been scored before the 76th minute in 8 of Manchester Citys last 10 home games to similar rated sides and in 2 of Newcastles last 4 away games to top rated sides.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Manchester City HT/FT 9/10 (1.9)

BetsLayer Trade Zone

If the game looks to be suitable i.e City keeping possession in control, use Time Decay trading on the No Goal or alternative market from 76 mins. This could involve multi backs and lays as the game develops.

West Brom v Bolton

Stats Analysis

It should be remembered that its always dangerous to pin too much on one result, but Bolton’s 5-0 victory could be a turning point for their season.

The draw is priced at 13/5 (3.60) and this looks to offer value in what is a difficult game to call.

Bolton are priced at 16/5 (4.20) but have a very poor record away from home. However when it comes to facing similar rated sides away from home the record is not too bad W4 D3 L3. If you do fancy Bolton to do well then you could be best keeping the draw on your side and Bolton can be backed +0.5 goals at 9/10 (1.90). West Brom haven’t beaten Bolton in their last seven meetings.

As for goals we can expect a few there have been Over 2.5 goals seen in 7 of Boltons last 10 away to similar rated sides including the last 6. Although the stats are not as strong for West Brom and indeed only 1 of their home games this season has seen 3 or more goals there have been Over 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 15 home games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 4/5 (1.80).

Both teams to score looks a strong bet as both teams have found the net in 8 of Boltons last 10 away to similar rated sides and in 10 of West Broms last 15 home games. Both teams to score can be backed at 4/6 (1.67) and offers only slight value at this price.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Bolton +0.5 goals at 9/10 (1.90)

Wigan v Blackburn

Stats Analysis

If ever there was an early season 6-pointer, then this is it. The ratings are suggesting that there is value in Wigans current price. However Blackburn do have a fairly strong record away to similar rated sides. Wigan are priced at 16/11 (2.45) and this price offers some decent value and if you fancy Wigan to win.

The Draw is priced at 12/5 (3.40) and although this does not offer much value it has to be taken into consideration.

Blackburn are priced at 19/10 (2.90) and this price does not really offer that much value.

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or over. It has also been seen in 6 of Blackburns last 8 away games to similar rated sides. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 10/11 (1.91). Both teams to score also looks a strong option as both teams have scored in 9 of Blackburns last 10 away to similar rated sides and in 7 of Wigans last 10 at home to similar rated sides Both teams to score can be backed at a short but value price, especially given the fraility of both defences. 7/10 (1.70).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Both teams to score 7/10 (1.70).

Swansea v Man United (17.30 Saturday ESPN)

Stats Analysis

They may have been handed a kind opening set of fixtures, but Swansea’s unbeaten home record still deserves respect. The ratings are very much on a par with the odds available and Manchester United are priced at 1/2 (1.50) to win the match. There is mixed info coming from the stats mainly because as mentioned Swansea are unbeaten at home. However Manchester United do have an excellent record away to low rated sides which reads W8 D1 L1. Dutching the Manchester United win by 1 or 2 goals makes sense given Swanseas decent home record as all of Uniteds last 8 away victories to low rated sides have come by the 1 or 2 goal margin 10/11 (1.91).

The draw is priced at 7/2 (4.50) and this offers value and should certainly be considered

Swansea can be backed at 7/1 (8.00) and if you do fancy Swansea to do well then your best option could be to back Swansea on the Asian Handicap +1 goal at Evens (2.00).

As for goals then again there are some mixed stats. However Swansea have only conceded 1 goal at home this season in their opening 5 matches and 6 of Manchester Uniteds last 8 away games have seen 2 goals or less. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at 11/10 (2.10). There is also value in backing both teams to score. Both teams have scored in 7 of Manchester Uniteds last 10 away to similar rated sides and this can be backed at 10/11 (1.91). 2/3 goals looks of interest as 4 of Manchester Uniteds last 7 away to similar rated sides have seen this total as have 4 of Manchester Uniteds last 6 away games. In the case of Swansea this total has been seen twice in their opening 5 home games. Evens (2.00).

Manchester United have been ahead at Half Time in only 3 of their last 10 away games and Swansea have not been behind at the break in any of their last 15 home games. Manchester United can be layed to win the first half Evens (2.00).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Under 2.5 goals 11/10 (2.10)

BetsLayer Trade Zone

Lay Manchester United to win the first half Evens (2.00)

Chelsea v Liverpool (16.00 Sunday Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Chelsea and Villa Boas are really trying to change the way they play, going for a high tempo pressing game and this has suffered a few high profile failures. Even so their home form is still impressive and their loss to Arsenal stands alone in the last 12. Chelsea have won 2 of their last 3 victories by the 1 or 2 goal margin and Liverpool have lost 4 of their last 5 away defeats by this margin. Dutching the Chelsea win by 1 or 2 goals 23/20 (2.15).

The draw can be backed at 13/5 (3.60) and this does offer some appeal given both sides recent form and ratings.

As for goals then there's value in backing Over 2.5 goals mainly due to Chelseas recent home form and the fact that they have conceded in every home game this season. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 10/11 (1.91).

The 2nd half to be the highest scoring looks a better option. The 2nd half has been the highest scoring in 7 of Liverpools last 9 away games to top rated sides and in 12 of Chelseas last 16 home games. The second half to be the highest scoring can be backed at 11/10 (2.10) alternatively backing the 1st goal of the game after 25 minutes Evens (2.0) could be strongly considered.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

2nd half to be the highest scoring 11/10 (2.10)

BetsLayer Trade Zone

Under 2.5 goals can be backed at 11/10 (2.10). One way to approach the game is to lay off liability as the game takes shape i.e 50% at 10 mins and then the rest until the 25th minute.


I will update with the Monday night game over the weekend.

Weekend 12-13th November BetsLayer selections

Right here we go, here are the BetsLayer bets for this weekend, not much action around as its an International and FA cup weekend.

BetsLayer Account Bets
England v Spain Spain to win (1.86)
England v Spain Both to Score Evens (2.00)

Top Draw (FA cup)
Chesterfield v Torquay (3.6)
Exeter v Walsall (3.65)
Preston v Southend (3.7)
Swindon v Huddersfield (3.4)
Bradford v Rochdale (3.6)

What would be the 'perfect' book or website for gamblers

I have often asked fellow gamblers, what would be the "perfect gambling book or website", by "perfect," I guess I'm just being inquisitive, because no such thing exists. If it were perfect, just imagine the possibilities:

A sports trader/gambler would, if not too greedy, love to have the scores of all next week's football games so he could make a few dozen 10-team accumulators and retire to the Caribbean a week later. I mean, imagine if someone could see into the future, hand someone a book, a sheet, a newspaper, a website link with the results, and actually convince the guy getting the info, it was solid, accurate information, and completely bettable at least once.

What would happen if the guy didn't believe he was getting the real thing, was only going to get it once and if he missed the opportunity, it would never happen again?

There was a movie made, for you trivia buffs in 1944, called It Happened Tomorrow, where such a thing occurs as part of the movie plot. The heroes of this saga take about an hour to catch on to this good thing in this case it was the race results at the local track they were getting 24 hours ahead of time and they couldn't believe it. How about the memorable sequence in the second of the Back to the Future movies where Biff gets hold of an almanac from the l980s listing the winners of all important sporting events and really goes wild since the movie is taking place in the 1950s and 1960s?

Or could the perfect vehicle be an item selling for less than £20, with a triple-your-money-back guarantee from the publisher, with a title like Win Every Time, which covers all forms of gambling, written in every language, and comes pocket-sized? I guess that would be the early demise of all forms of gambling.

Dream on everyone. It isn't going to happen. Only hard work, money management, discipline produces more winners than losers. No book or website can be guaranteed to make anyone a winner or provide a certain percentage of winners. They can, at the very best, keep you away from a higher percentage of losers than the guy seated or sitting next to you who has no clue as to what a low percentage or poor value bet might be

Books/blogs/websites are supposed to be guides by people who have already made their mistakes and are trying to guide you to smarter 'value' bets or those with a low percentage edge. If anyone had the ultimate angle, winners a day ahead of time, or the perfect system, they would not be selling or giving it away. The next time you see or hear of a "pitch" guaranteeing riches, winnings, a sure thing each day, even £100 a week, one of those quit work, sleep until noon schemes, chuckle to yourself and move on.

Every once in a while we get a hunch, have a dream, stumble on some instant reasoning for betting a horse, a lottery number, a team in a future bet situation. That's what keeps us all going, the hope we get that instantaneous "rush" of an idea, it happens while we dream, while we're shaving, taking a shower or relaxing. It's that unpredictable "I'm a genius," "I'm blessed" feeling we all yearn for and when we hear or read about it happening to others, we dream it might happen to us.

Dreaming has always been an escape from reality. Perhaps gambling is also an escape. The question remains: If we happen to hit that perfect day, the perfect run where we win big, can't seem to lose and we quit when ahead…just what do you do next? Quit forever? Buy something or invest in something quickly? Store it away in the bank? Live the wild life? Maybe it's just that, what we actually do with the money defines our values. How do we handle the victory? With restraint? Or with abandon? It's similar to how people handle fame, sudden fame and riches. If they forget their roots, they forfeit their souls in some way and are doomed to give it all back.

Weekend November 5-6th System Review and Info

Well in truth a very pleasing weekend, the Premier League bets continue to perform excellently with 4 out of 5 this weekend on the Account bets and 8 winning value highlights showing the power of the Match Analysis reports.

BetsLayer Account = 18 selections with 11 winners - £450 staked with £561 returned ROI = 24.6%

In the Premier league its even better with 16 selections with the 11 winners - £400 staked with £561 returned ROI = 40.25%

The other side of the coin is the Top Draw system which amazingly due to a 93+ minute winner at Peterboro suffered a complete blank, another late winner at Stevenage also cost us. The most worrying part was the spreadsheet this weekend highlighted overall 12 selections and only 1 ended up as a draw, but this is a system that has consistently shown a profit season on season and I'm not worried that in the long term it will show a healthy profit. At these longer odds, it only takes a couple of good weeks and its a healthy profit, as an example the above injury time winner robbed us of a £101 payback.

Top Draw = 36 selections with 8 winners - £900 staked with £716.25 returned ROI = -20.4%

The Luckylucas Lower League selections continue to find their feet with a solid week with 2 winners out of the 3 selections. 

Luckylucas = 14 selections with 6 winners - £350 staked with £325.5 returned ROI = -7%

Hopefully people are starting to enjoy the blog and especially see the value of the analysis, its certainly helping me find the value bets in the English Premier League, as the figures above show. Going to be a quiet week ahead with the international break, hopefully though we can get the Top Draw back on track, as we got 3 from 6 in the last break.

Weekend 5-6th November BetsLayer Selections

Right here we go, here are the BetsLayer bets for this weekend, hoping our graph is very much like the picture after the weekend is done.


BetsLayer Account
QPR v Manchester City 2nd Half most goals 11/10 (2.10)
Liverpool v Swansea Liverpool HT 8/11 (1.73)
Aston Villa v Norwich  Both teams to score 4/5 (1.80)
Bolton v Stoke 2nd Half most goals 23/20 (2.15)
Fulham v Spurs Over 2.5 goals 10/11 (1.91)

Top Draw
Cardiff v Crystal Palace (3.7)
Peterboro v Derby (4.05)
Portsmouth v Nottingham Forest (3.4)
Reading v Birmingham (3.5)
Bournemouth v Scunthorpe (3.7)
Stevenage v Sheffield United (3.55)

Luckylucas Lower League 
Gillingham v Northampton Gillingham to win 10/11 (1.91)
Wimbledon v Barnet Wimbledon to win 10/11 (1.91)
Burton v Macclesfield Burton to win 10/11 (1.91)

EPL Match Analysis Weekend 5th November

Newcastle v Everton (Sky Sports 2 Saturday 12.45)

Stats Analysis

This is a difficult game to call with many misleading stats and trends over the previous head to head performances. Everton whilst in 16^th in the Premier League would go 9^th with a win here and until their well disciplined win at Stoke, Newcastle had not beaten a side out of the bottom 6. The present odds for Newcastle however do offer some value at 13/10 (2.3)

There is a strong draw bias to this game and the draw can be backed at 23/10 (3.30) and should be considered.

As for goals then there is value in backing 3 or more. Over 2.5 goals has been seen in 7 of Newcastles last 10 at home to similar rated sides and in 7 of Evertons last 15 away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 21/20 (2.05). Over 3.5 goals also looks to offer some value as 4 or more goals have been seen in 7 of Newcastles last 15 home matches. Over 3.5 goals can be backed at 14/5 (3.80)

The first half to feature Over 1.5 goals looks of interest as this has been seen in 9 of Newcastles last 15 home games. The 1^st half to contain Over 1.5 goals can be backed at 21/10 (3.10).

Both teams to score also stands out as this has been seen in 9 of Newcastles last 10 at home to similar rated sides and Both teams have scored in 8 of Evertons last 15 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at 5/6 (1.83)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Both teams to score 5/6 (1.83)

QPR v Manchester City (ESPN Saturday 17.30)

Stats Analysis.

If you can win 5-1 at Spurs and 6-1 at Old Trafford you can win anywhere, so the question isn’t who will win but how they will win. In truth there is little value in City’s price 4/11 (1.36). This is particulary true when you assess the one solitary failure to win in the league, away at Fulham, also came after a Wednesday Champions League game.

City have scored more than 2 goals in all 13 domestic games this season, but the most interesting stat concerns the variation between first half and second half performances. They have conceded only one goal in the first half and have only scored 8 of their 36 goals before the break. Rangers have kept a first half clean sheet in half their games the Draw/Man City double result could be a contender 4/1 (5.0)

Both teams to score has some appeal as both teams have found the net in 7 of Manchester Citys last 10 away games to low rated sides and in 4 of Man Citys opening 5 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at 20/21 (1.95)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

2nd Half most goals 11/10 (2.10)

Manchester United v Sunderland

Stats Analysis

Manchester United will still be licking their wounds after the derby humiliation against City but historically they have responded well to set backs, but there is no real value in their price of 1/4 (1.25).

Manchester United do have a fantastic home record against similar rated sides winning their last 10, so we need to look at options to give us better value. The half time / Full time result is worth consideration and Manchester United have won 7 of those last 10 at home by this result, Sunderland have also lost 6 of their last 7 away defeats by this result. Manchester United HT/FT 8/11 (1.73). United have also won 8 of those last 10 home games to nil and this can be backed at 11/10 (2.10).

The draw can be backed at 11/2 (6.50) and in truth although this offers little appeal it does offer value.

As for goals then the only value is Under 3.5 which can be backed at 4/6 (1.67) or above, there has been 3 or less goals in 5 of Manchester Uniteds last 6 home games to similar  rated sides and in 6 of Sunderlands last 7 away to top rated sides.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Manchester United HT/FT 8/11 (1.73)

Blackburn v Chelsea

Stats Analysis

Chelsea have had real problems and back to back defeats to QPR and Arsenal have exposed their ageing squad, but we fully expect them to get their act together and bounce back against Blackburn, however the price at 1/2 offers little value or attraction even accounting for their recent Ewood park record of 4 wins in the last 5.

Dutching the Chelsea win by 1 or 2 goals would make sense and although they do occasionally win large at lower rated opposition they have won via the 1 or 2 goal margin in 11 of their last 16 away victories at such sides. This can be backed at better than evens (2.0)

The draw can be backed at 15/4 (4.75) and this offers value and is worth consideration when you consider that Blackburn have drawn 4 of their last 10 home games to top rated sides.

Both teams to score seems a reasonable bet as Both teams have scored in 6 of Blackburns last 8 at home to top rated sides and in 6 of Chelseas last 10 away to similar rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at 4/5 (1.80). Fernando Torres prior to his red card at Swansea had been getting back into something like his old scoring form with 4 in his last 6 games. He can be backed to score First at 4/1 (5.00)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutch Chelsea to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.00)

Arsenal v West Brom

Stats Anlysis

Both sides have found some recent form after slow starts and West Broms best results have come away from home. Arsenal do have an exceptional record at home to similar rated sides which reads W9 D0 L1 and without Shane Long its seems likely that Arsenal will have too much, although West Brom have taken points in 3 of the last 4 games including the win above in this game last season.

Arsenal certainly now, do not seem to win large against this type of opposition as they did a couple of seasons ago and they have won 7 of their last 9 home victories against similar sides by 1 or 2 goals. Dutching the Arsenal victory by 1 or 2 goals pays Evens (2.00).

The draw can be backed at 15/4 (4.75) and this offers some good value, West Brom can be backed at 15/2 (8.50) and whilst offering value doesn’t really appeal.

As for goals we should expect a few especially in the case of West Brom as 11 of their last 15 away games have seen 3 or more goals as have all 5 of their previous games away to top rated sides. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 3/5 (1.60).

West Brom have only failed to find the net once in their last 11 away matches. Taking this into account the 4/5 (1.80) would seem a reasonable but it must be remembered that Arsenal have kept 9 clean sheets in their last 15 home matches.

Arsenal have drawn the first half of 4 of their 5 domestic home games all against sides placed 9^th or lower. 7/4 (2.75)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutch Arsenal to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.00)

Liverpool v Swansea

Stats Analysis

Swansea’s place in the top half of the table is down to their 3-2-0 record, away from home they have lost all 4 times against teams from the top 10. Liverpool were held in their last home game against Norwich, but did create many chances.

Liverpool tend to start these games quickly and they have been leading at Half time in 5 of their last 6 home matches to lower rated sides. Liverpool have yet to concede in the first half at home this season. Liverpool HT 8/11 (1.73).

As for goals there are some mixed stats on these two sides. However one stat that is constant is that Liverpool have conceded in every home game so far this season, Swansea have scored in their last 3 away matches including a 4-1 defeat at Chelsea. Both teams to score can be backed at 11/10 (2.10) and this looks a value option.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Liverpool HT 8/11 (1.73).

Aston Villa v Norwich

Stats Analysis

Aston Villa started the season with 7 games unbeaten, but a home loss to West Brom shows they can be got at, although the red card contributed, but Norwich will be no pushovers here. The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in Aston Villas current price (1.83) and indeed their record at home to low rated sides is not very strong winning only 4 of their last 10 games.

If you do fancy Aston Villa to win this game then dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals certainly makes sense as 5 of their last 6 victories at home to low rated sides have come via this margin as has both of Norwichs away defeats this season. Dutching the Aston Villa win by 1 or 2 goals pays slightly under 6/5 (2.18).

The draw can be backed at 13/5 (3.60) and this looks to offer value and should certainly be considered given Aston Villa’s form against similar oppositition and Norwich are a tough side to beat losing only 1 from 6 so far and they were unlucky in that loss at Old Trafford.

Norwich can be backed at 15/4 (4.75) and this price offers value. If you do fancy them to do well then we would suggest leaving the draw on your side and back Norwich Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at 11/10 (2.10).

As for goals there is a bias to 2 or under and this has been seen in 10 of Aston Villas last 14 home games and in 3 of Norwichs opening 5 away games. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00).

Both teams to score makes for some appeal as Norwich have only failed to find the net in one of their opening 5 away games which was Old Trafford as above and both sides have scored in 10 of their last 15 away games. In the case of Aston Villa the trend is not as strong and 5 of their last 10 home games has seen both sides score. Both teams to score is priced 4/5 (1.80).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutching the Aston Villa win by 1 or 2 6/5 (2.2).

BetsLayer Trade Zone.

Under 2.5 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00). One way to approach the game is to lay off liability as the game takes shape i.e 50% at 10 mins and then the rest until the end as you feel the game is going, even with a first half goal the odds at HT would be less than initially backed.

Wolves v Wigan (Sky Sports 1 Sunday 13.30)

Stats Analysis

Wolves have a great chance to kick start their season here, Wigan are bottom of the league and are 8/13 to be relegated, they have won only 1 of their last 10 games. Wolves have a good record at home to fellow low rated sides and Wigan are in poor form at the moment losing 4 of their opening 5 away games.Priced at Evens (2.00) this price offers some value and it seems a reasonable option given Wolves recent home record to fellow low rated sides and Wigans poor recent away form.

The draw can be backed at 5/2 (3.50) and this looks to offer good value in a real six pointer relegation battle, where both sides will really fear losing.

As for goals, when it comes to facing sides of a similar grade then there is a bias to 3 or more. Over 2.5 goals have been seen in 7 of Wigans last 10 away games to similar sides and in 11 of Wolves last 15 home games. Over 2.5 goals Evens (2.00)

There has been a goal scored after 73 minutes in 7 of Wolves last 10 home games at home to similar sides and in 7 of Wigans last 10 away games. The last goal of the game to come after 73 minutes can be backed at 10/11 (1.91).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Wolves to win Evens (2.00)

BetsLayer Trade Zone.

Look to lay no goal after 70 minutes at under Evens (2.00)

Bolton v Stoke

Stats Analysis

Stoke are struggling to balance the demands of European football and will probably be content with a draw here. Bolton do look a poor side however and 5 losses at home is the stuff of nightmares.

There is a strong draw bias to the game and the draw can be backed at 12/5 (3.40) and this offers some value is worth strong consideration.

Stoke can be backed at 2/1 (3.00) and this offers some value. However their recent away form is pretty poor. If you fancy Stoke to do well your best option is probably to back them on the Asian Handicap and the 19/16 (2.18) for +0 is reasonable.

As for goals there certainly is a bias to 2 or less goals and this has been seen in 7 of Stokes last 10 away to similar rated sides and in 4 of Boltons last 10 at home. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at 10/11 (1.91). The main reasoning for this is that Stoke struggle to score away from home, especially after European games with no gaols following an away tie on Thursday and Bolton have also struggled recently to score at home.

Finally in the case of Bolton when facing similar rated sides there is a strong chance of a tight start to the match as 5 of their last 10 home games have been 0-0 at half time with 7 of the 10 games seeing the second half as the highest scoring, first goal of the game can be backed to be scored after 25 mins at 10/11 (1.91). In the case of Stoke 4 of their last 10 away games have been 0-0 at the break. This could give us a few viable options. The half time draw can be backed at 6/5 (2.20) with the 0-0 score line being offered at 2/1 (3.00). We could also look to back the Under 2.5 as above and trade down using a Trade Zone strategy. The second half to be the highest scoring can be backed at 23/20 (2.15)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The second half to be the highest scoring 23/20 (2.15)

BetsLayer Trade Zone.

Back Under 2.5 at 10/11 (1.91) look to lay off 50% at 10 mins and gradually lay off the remainder until the 25^th minute. If there is an early goal, assess the minutes after the goal and look to reduce liability.

Fulham v Spurs

Stats Analysis

Its difficult not to see Spurs heading back to north london with all 3 points, particularly if Rafael van der Vaart continues his superb form. Spurs are in very good form and can be backed at 13/10 (2.30).

There is a strong draw bias here and Fulham have drawn 4 from 9 against similar rated sides and the draw can be backed at 12/5 (3.40).

As for goals there is a bias to Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score with some strong stats. 3 goals or more have been seen in 10 of Fulhams last 15 home games and in 8 of Spurs last 10 away games to similar rated sides, infact Spurs are averaging 3.5 goals per game this season. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 10/11 (1.91), Both to score is available at 4/6 (1.67) Both teams have scored in 9 of Spurs last 10 away games to similar rated sides and in 5 of Fulhams last 9 at home. This offers less value than the Overs.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals 10/11 (1.91)