EPL Match Analysis Weekend 29th October

Everton v Manchester United

Stats Analysis

The ratings are very much in line with the odds available and Everton do have a very good record when playing top rated sides at Goodison Park. Infact they only lost 1 at home against top half sides in 2010/2011.

The draw is priced at 13/5 (3.60) and this offers some value and is certainly worth consideration given United’s recent record against similar rated sides drawing 7 of their last 10 away games.

As for goals the Over 2.5 goals looks a good option and has been seen in 6 of Everton’s last 10 home games to top rated sides and in 9 of Manchester Uniteds last 15 away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at a very appealing looking 10/11 (1.95).

Both teams to score also looks of some appeal and this has been seen in 6 out of 9 respective home and away games against similar opposition. Both teams to score can be backed at 3/4 (1.75), this offers some value.

Late goals appear to be a regular event at Goodison Park and there has been a goal scored after 73 minutes in 7 of their last 9 home games to top rated sides and in 6 of Manchester United’s last 9 away games to similar sides. The last goal of the game to be scored after 73 minutes can be backed at 10/11 (1.91).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 10/11 (1.95)

BetsLayer Trade Zone

Look to lay no goal after 70 minutes at under Evens (2.00)

Chelsea v Arsenal (Sky Sports 2 Saturday 12.45)

Stats Analysis

Chelsea can be backed at 4/6 (1.67) and this looks a little short on the ratings. Dutching the Chelsea victory by 1 or 2 goals potentially makes more sense, as all 6 of their previous 6 home victories to similar rated sides have come via this margin.

As for goals Over 2.5 goals have been seen in 10 of Chelseas last 15 at home, with 6 from 10 against similar opposition and in 13 of Arsenals last 15 away matches with 5 from 8 against top rated sides. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 7/10 (1.70) and whilst short it represents some value.

The 2nd half to be the highest scoring looks worth consideration as this has been the result in 6 of Chelsea’s last 10 home games v similar opposition and in 5 of Arsenals last 8 away to top rated sides, 11/10 (2.10)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

2nd half to be the highest scoring 11/10 (2.10)

Swansea v Bolton

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is value in backing Swansea to win at better than 11/10 (2.10) infact Bolton’s awful run is now 12 defeats in 14 EPL games.

There is a fairly strong draw bias to this game and the draw is priced at 12/5 (3.4) and this offers value and is certainly worthy of consideration

As for goals then there is a bias to 3 or more and Over 2.5 goals have been seen in 9 of Bolton’s last 15 away games and in 6 of their last 10 away to similar rated sides. This is not so strong with Swansea as 3 or more goals have only been seen in 1 of their last 4 home games to similar sides and infact in only 8 of the last 15 with 11 in the Championship. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Swansea to win 11/10 (2.10)


Sunderland v Aston Villa

Stats Analysis

The match odds don’t appear to offer any real value compared to the ratings, some slight value in Aston Villas price (3.9) but that’s not really an attractive option, especially considering they are yet to win away this season. Alternatively and keeping the draw onside you can back Aston Villa Draw No Bet at 6/4 (2.50).

As for goals then when looking at both teams general form Over 2.5 goals offers some value at 11/10 (2.10) as there has been 3 or more goals in 10 of Sunderlands last 15 home games and in 7 of Aston Villas last 15 away games . However when looking at both sides respective form against similarly rated sides there is a different story.

Late goals could come into play as there has been a goal after 75 minutes in 7 of Aston Villas last 9 away games and in 8 of Sunderland’s last 14 home games. The last goal of the game to come after 72 minutes can be backed at Evens (2.00)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Aston Villa Draw No Bet at 6/4 (2.50).

BetsLayer Trade Zone

If the game situation dictates then look to lay no goal after 70 minutes at under Evens (2.00). i.e If either side are leading, if there has been lots of action and shots on target….however if its 0-0 then maybe stay away.

Norwich v Blackburn

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting there is some value in backing Norwich to win this game and they can be backed at 11/10 (2.10) and they have won 3 out of 5 against bottom half teams. However it should be remembered that Blackburn are fairly resilient when playing away at lower rated sides and have only lost 2 of their last 10 away matches.

The draw is priced at 13/.5 (3.60) and this offers some value and is certainly worth consideration.

As for goals then there are some mixed info coming out of the spreadsheet, generally there is a bias to Over 2.5 as 3 or more goals have been scored in 9 of Norwich’s last 13 home games and in 9 of Blackburn’s last 15 away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 10/11 (1.91)

Both teams to score looks a very solid option as both teams have scored in 12 of Norwich’s last 14 home games and in 3 of their last 4 home games to similar opposition. The stats are also strong for Blackburn where both teams have scored in 11 of their last 15 away games as well as in 8 of their last 10 away to low rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at 8/11 (1.73)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Both teams to score 8/11 (1.73)

Wigan v Fulham

Stats Analysis

There is an extremely strong draw bias to this game and all 5 of the previous 5 meetings at Wigan have ended level and both sides have drawn 6 of their last 10 home and away games respectively against similar opposition 12/5 (3.4).

As for goals there are some decent stats and Under 2.5 goals looks to offer some value at 3/4 (1.75) 8 of Fulham’s last 10 away games to similar sides have seen 2 or fewer goals as has 6 of Wigan’s last 10 home games to similar sides so this certainly looks a strong option.

Both teams to score also looks strong as both teams have scored in 9 of Wigan’s last 10 home games to similar sides and in 5 of Fulham’s last 10 away games to low rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at 5/6 (1.83) again this looks worth consideration.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The Draw 12/5 (3.4)

Man City V Wolves

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting not much value in backing Manchester City at their current price of 1/5 (1.20). However if you do fancy Manchester City then there are a number of viable options. 10 of Manchester City’s last 14 home games have been won by the Half time / Full time result and all 5 of Wolves previous 5 away defeats have come via this result. (1.6)

The draw can be backed at 6/1 (7.00) and this offers some value but very little appeal with the recent form City are showing.

Manchester Citys home games are not really know for late action. The last goal of the game has been scored before the 75th minute in 7 of Manchester Citys last 10 home games to low rated sides and in 5 of Wolves last 9 away games to top rated sides. The last goal of the game to come before 75 minutes can be backed at 10/11 (1.91) and given the above could offer some value.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Manchester City HT/FT (1.6)

BetsLayer Trade Zone

Look to trade down the No goal or existing score once the 70th minute is reached, this type of time decay would not be advised if Manchester City are not winning comfortably at this point.

West Brom v Liverpool (ESPN Saturday 17.30)

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Liverpool to win this match and looking at their recent away record to similar rated sides that would tend to agree. Liverpool can be backed at 21/20 (2.05) and this offers no value.

If you do fancy Liverpool to win this game then your best option maybe to dutch them to win by 1 or 2 goals as all 5 of West Broms last 5 home defeats have come via this margin as has 4 of Liverpools last 6 away victories. Liverpool can be backed at a shade under 7/5 (2.40) and gets nearer to a value option.

The draw can be backed at 5/2 (3.50) and this looks to offer some value and worth consideration.

West Brom can be backed at 16/5 (4.20) and this looks to offer some value. However if you do fancy West Brom to win it maybe a better option to keep the draw on your side and West Brom can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals 10/11 (1.91) or The Draw No Bet 2/1 (3.00)

As for goals then the stats are pretty weak, West Brom have become a lot tighter since Roy Hodgson took over with 2 or less goals in 4 of their last 5 home games. Also there has been Under 2.5 goals in 5 of Liverpool’s last 10 away at similar rated sides. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at 5/6 (1.83) and this looks to offer a small amount of value.

Nothing else is really being highlighted although Both teams have scored in only 4 of Liverpools last 10 away games to similar rated sides and the No on both teams to score can be backed at Evens (2.00)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

West Brom Asian Handicap +0.5 goals 10/11 (1.91)

Spurs v QPR (Sky Sports 1 Sunday 16.00)

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Spurs at their current price of 2/5 (1.40). The half time / Full time result could be considered as Spurs have won 5 of their last 6 home victories. QPR have also lost both of their 2 away defeats this season by this result and Spurs can be backed at Evens (2.00) and this looks to offer some good value.

The draw can be backed at 4/1 (5.00) and this offers some value especially when you look at Spurs recent home record to low rated sides

As for goals even though Spurs have averaged a total goal average of 3.5 this season, we certainly wouldn’t go lumping on the 8/13 (1.62) on the Over 2.5 goals. Indeed when you look at Spurs recent record at home to low rated sides when there has been 2 or fewer goals in 7 of 10 matches then the 11/8 (2.38) on Under 2.5 goals looks to offer some value.

Given QPR’s general away form and Spurs home form to low rate sides the No on Both teams to score looks an option. Both teams have scored in only 3 of QPR’s last 15 away games and in 4 of Spurs last 10 at home to low rated sides, Evens (2.00).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Spurs HT/FT Evens (2.0)


Stoke v Newcastle (Sky Sports 1 Monday 20.00)

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting there isn’t much value in Stoke’s current price 12/10 (2.20). some slight value in Newcastle’s price (3.9) but that’s not really such an attractive option. Alternatively and keeping the draw onside you can back Newcastle Draw No Bet at (2.9) or Asian Handicap +0.5 goals (1.88)

There is a fairly strong draw bias to this game and the draw is priced at 12/5 (3.4) and this offers value and is certainly worthy of consideration.

As for goals there are some decent stats and Under 2.5 goals looks to offer some value at 3/4 (1.75) 11 of Stokes last 15 home games and have seen Under 2.5 goals as has 11 of Wigan’s last 15 away games so this certainly looks a strong option especially when also looking at the fact Stoke have only conceded one goal at home and that was against Manchester United.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The Draw 12/5 (3.4)