Premier League Betting Value February 25th

WEST HAM v SPURS

Spurs look decent enough value to win this game (2.31), the away win seen in 11 of the last 19 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. It also looks good for goals with Over 2.5 (1.97) a standout, seen in 14 of the 19 games. The Both Teams to Score (1.73) looks reasonable, although there are better value bets, also seen in 14 of the 19 games. Finally if you fancy something a little different, Spurs to win the Second Half (2.75), looks a steady choice, seen in 7 of the Last 10 Spurs Away games against similar level opponents and 11 from the 19 overall.

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EARLY BIRD LAYS

This is a new system I'm trialling and will post the selections here, it involves laying the 0-0 HT or backing Over 0.5 Goals First Half, whichever you prefer. The selections are always value using BetFormPro statistical software, 28 free trial available here , at this time selections are only from the Premier League, I will be laying to a flat stake of £50.

 
Yesterday we had one selection, getting back on track, nothing tonight as the game is priced up correctly

Newcastle v Southampton - Lay HT 0-0 (3.30) WON

running total =

21 Selections

13 Winners 8 Losers

Total =  -£257

Premier League Betting Value February 24th

MANCHESTER CITY v CHELSEA

There is no real value in Manchester City's price at Evens, if you fancy them to win it makes good sense to Dutch them to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.40), all 8 home wins of the 18 games featuring these two sides against similar level opponents have been by this margin, as have the last 3 meetings at Manchester City. The Away side the Most Booking Points (1.91), looks reasonable, seen in 12 of the 18 games. The Second Half Under 1.5 Goals (1.91), looks good, seen in 13 of the 18 games. 

NEWCASTLE v SOUTHAMPTON

Total Goals 2-3 (1.91), looks good value, seen in 9 of the last 10 Newcastle Home games against similar level opponents and 11 from 14 overall. 

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EARLY BIRD LAYS

This is a new system I'm trialling and will post the selections here, it involves laying the 0-0 HT or backing Over 0.5 Goals First Half, whichever you prefer. The selections are always value using BetFormPro statistical software, 28 free trial available here , at this time selections are only from the Premier League, I will be laying to a flat stake of £50.

Norwich City v Fulham - Lay HT 0-0 (3.10) LOSS

Today we have one selection, hopefully getting back on track

Newcastle v Southampton - Lay HT 0-0 (3.30)

running total =

20 Selections

12 Winners 8 Losers

Total =  -£305

Premier League Betting Value February 23rd

ARSENAL v ASTON VILLA

Tough game for Arsenal with the pressure really on after losses in the FA Cup and Champions League, unfortunately its also a tough game to find value.

FULHAM v STOKE

The Home Side to be Leading at Half Time (2.90), looks good value seen 10 of the last 19 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. The Home Side to Win (2.25), also looks good, seen in 12 of the 19 games. Over 2.5 Goals (2.30), looks another value option, seen in 12 of the 19 games. With the above trends the Home/Home (3.60), looks a longer odds option, seen in 9 of the 19 games. Race to 2 Goals Home Side (2.60), looks strong, seen in 11 of the 19 games. 

EVERTON v NORWICH

The Draw (3.50), looks a good start point in analysing this game, seen in 7 of the last 15 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Total Goals 2-3 (1.90), looks strong, seen in 11 of the 15 games. 

WEST BROM v SUNDERLAND

First Half Correct Score 0-0 (3.00), looks good value, seen in 10 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition.

QPR v MANCHESTER UNITED

The Half Time Draw (2.50), looks reasonable, seen in 8 of the last 15 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Second Half Under 1.5 Goals (1.90), again looks reasonable seen in 10 of the 15 games.

READING v WIGAN

In a game with limited data only one longer odds bet stands out, Half with Most Goals Draw (3.75), seen in 6 of the last 12 games featuring these two sides against similar opponents.

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Liverpool v Swansea Betting Value February 16th

LIVERPOOL v SWANSEA

Under 2.5 Goals (2.30), looks good value, seen in 10 of the last 15 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Half with Most Goals Draw (3.75), looks a reasonable longer odds bet, seen in 9 of the 15 games. Swansea +1 on the Asian Handicap (2.05), could be a good option only losing 4 times and winning 8 in the 15 games.

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Both Teams To Score | Goals Galore | Finding Winners

by Danny Jaques (Premier-Betting.com and Betform)

Strategy: Both teams To Score

There is a growing buzz around the Football betting arena known as BTTS/ Goals Galore or officially “Both Teams To Score”. Basically you bet “Yes” or “No” depending on what you think may happen during the match. There seems to be an aray of Goals Galore tips being banged about on Twitter and other social media sites, but do punters really know if what they're backing actually offers any long term value? Many new punters probably think its easy to find 5 games each weekend, but I assure you that isnt the case. Hopefully after reading this article and applying some of the information you will be able to select your own tips or as I would rather call them investments and start making informed decisions and long term profits.

Fig1

This is a market that we can use BetformPro’s “research it” tool to devastating effect. There are 2 key areas to making this profitable. 

1) Analysis of data

2) Find a value bet

Place the bet!

Analysis

The more data you can call upon in most cases increases the accuracy of the data. I used data since the start of the 2009/2010 season which represents nearly 1400 Premier League matches. If you are a user of BetformPro (BFP) you may know that it grades teams according to their league standings.

Grade A: Top 4 teams that normally qualify for the Champions League
 

Grade B: Top half teams not included in grade A, typically from 5th to 8th places.
 

Grade C: Mid table teams that are not A or B, but are not usually involved in relegation danger.
 

Grade D: Bottom 6 or newly promoted teams.

I interrogated BFP to find out the likelihood of BTTS when they played each other over the past 999 Premier League matches.

These are the settings I used. In this example you can see I set the filter to research Grade A v Grade A. You will be able to see the settings I used by the red circles on the example.

Fig 2.


After doing this for all the various combinations I collected the data and transferred it into a simple spreadsheet. As seen below.

Fig 3

As you can see the each section shows the teams grade with the number of times this grade played each other. The % of times both teams scored v didn’t score and the implied odds. The implied odds is very important to us as this gives a guide on where the value lies. i.e In AvA we expect the odds of BTTS to be 1.89. If we found a match like this and the odds on offer were 2.3 we would say that was a great value bet as we are getting bigger odds that the true chances of the result occurring. This bit is a bit boring, but to make money consistently from betting it is something you need to consider every time you make a bet. “Am I getting bigger odds that the true chance of the result occurring”. If you say “yes” to this question every time you strike a bet you will win in the long term. No question.

Find A Value Bet

I want to apply this knowledge we have discovered against some real live matches.

I always use Oddschecker to identify the best odds for any given market. The price examples I am giving here for the weekends upcoming matches are still several days away. I would recommend waiting until nearer kick off before placing your bet, or at least until you have a good idea on any adverse team news that may effect the price.

The oddschecker screen showing prices for QPR v Man Utd for this weekends match: Note few prices on offer yet. Fig 4

Using the information from each of the matches on oddschecker I collected all of the information I need and transferred it into a simple spreadsheet. Making visuals to see information is a trick many pro’s use. Sometimes bets just leap off the page!

Fig 5 

I recommend you study this table above and see if it makes sense to you. The prices in the columns under “Implied odds” are the odds that our interrogation of BFP (Fig 3). This is then straightforward to compare the best odds available. We are looking for available odds that are significantly higher than what we consider to be true odds (implied odds)

I have highlighted the 2 matches where a value bet has been identified.

QPR v Man Utd – When a Grade D team is at home to a Grade A team the % chance of Both teams NOT scoring is 57% – this means the implied odds are 1.76. As the spreadsheet shows we can actually back BTTS to score “NO” at 2. In effect your getting Evens for an 8/11 chance.

The 2nd match is Reading v Wigan implied odds are 1.59 for BTTS “YES”. The best price is 1.75. Not amazing value – but certainly a consideration.
Finally if we use the Betform Pre Match tool we can look at the games in question just for confirmation that you are gaining value in your selection and there are no adverse stats between the given teams.

What aren’t included in the best odds are exchange prices. These will open up other opportunities as the LAYBET comes into play. i.e In the QPR v Man Utd match, if the best odds HAD included the exchange prices I would be very interested in the BTTS YES price.

Implied odds of 2.32, but a very stingy 1.85 best odds price. A LAYBET at this price would be great value against the true odds. Laying below what the price should be is as good as backing over the true odds.

Now the above approach to finding value can be applied to almost any betting market, in any league and with the research it tool you can look at the main four European leagues in England, Spain, Italy and Germany as well as look at over 60 betting markets. We will look to monitor the Both Teams To Score Market each week and highlight where we feel the value is as well as looking at other markets. Gradually we will build a portfolio of bets and hopefully give you a better insight in how to maximise using the Betform tool as well as improving your personal approach to football betting and trading.

Betform are offering a 28 day free trial so if you would like to get you hands on this brilliant tool, click here .

 

 

Monday Night Betting Value Liverpool v West Brom February 11th

LIVERPOOL v WEST BROM

There is little value about the home side, priced at (1.40), Under 2.5 Goals (2.40), looks reasonable value, seen in 11 of the last 19 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. The Half with Most Goals Draw (3.80), looks a good longer odds value option, seen in 10 of the 19 games.

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Premier League Betting Value February 10th

ASTON VILLA v WEST HAM

Both Teams to Score No (2.10), looks a reasonable option, seen in 12 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition.

MANCHESTER UNITED v EVERTON

Home Side to win the Second Half (2.25), looks an option, seen in 10 of the last 18 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Under 10.5 Corners (2.25), also seen in 10 of the 18 games. Second Half Most Goals (2.15), seen in 11 of the 18 games. Home Side Over 1.5 Goals (1.80), looks a good selection, seen in 12 of the 18 games.

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EARLY BIRD LAYS

This is a new system I'm trialling and will post the selections here, it involves laying the 0-0 HT or backing Over 0.5 Goals First Half, whichever you prefer. The selections are always value using BetFormPro statistical software, 28 free trial available here , at this time selections are only from the Premier League, I will be laying to a flat stake of £50.

Norwich City v Fulham - Lay HT 0-0 (3.10) LOSS

running total =

20 Selections

12 Winners 8 Losers

Total =  -£305

Premier League Betting Value February 9th

CHELSEA v WIGAN

Not an easy game to assess for value, the Second Half Most Goals (2.15), looks a reasonable option, seen in 11 of the last 19 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition.

NORWICH v FULHAM 

Home Side to Win Either Half (1.75), looks reasonable, seen in 15 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition.

SOUTHAMPTON v MANCHESTER CITY

The Half Time Draw (2.40), looks good value, seen in 10 of the last 12 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Under 2.5 Goals (2.13), looks reasonable, seen in 7 of the 12 games.

STOKE v READING

Over 2.5 Goals (2.12), looks a reasonable option, seen in 9 of the last 15 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Second Half Most Goals (2.25), looks a reasonable option, seen in 9 of the 15 games. 

SUNDERLAND v ARSENAL

The Half Time Draw (2.25), looks good value, seen in 12 of the last 19 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Under 2.5 Goals (2.00), looks reasonable, seen in 12 of the 19 games.

SWANSEA v QPR

Over 2.5 Goals (2.05), looks a reasonable option, seen in 13 of the last 19 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Both Teams to Score (1.91), looks a solid option, seem in 13 of the 19 games. Total Home Goals Over 1.5 (2.00), seen again in 13 of the 19 games.

SPURS v NEWCASTLE

Under 2.5 Goals (2.25), looks a good value option, seen in 12 of the last 18 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Home Clean Sheet (2.50), looks an option, seen in 11 of the 18 games, this is further backed up by the Both Teams to Score No (2.20), seen in 12 of the 18 games.

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EARLY BIRD LAYS

This is a new system I'm trialling and will post the selections here, it involves laying the 0-0 HT or backing Over 0.5 Goals First Half, whichever you prefer. The selections are always value using BetFormPro statistical software, 28 free trial available here , at this time selections are only from the Premier League, I will be laying to a flat stake of £50.

Norwich City v Fulham - Lay HT 0-0 (3.10)


running total =

19 Selections

12 Winners 7 Losers

Total =  -£200

Premier League Betting Value February 3rd

MANCHESTER CITY v LIVERPOOL

There is some Value in Manchester City's price (1.91), but not enough for me. The Total Goals 2-3 (1.91) looks reasonable, seen in 12 of the last 18 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Second Half the Highest Scoring (2.20), looks good value, also seen in 12 of the 18 games.

WEST BROM v SPURS

Over 2.5 Goals (1.95), holds some reasonable value, seen in 12 of the last 19 games featuring these two sides against similar opponents.


EARLY BIRD LAYS

This is a new system I'm trialling and will post the selections here, it involves laying the 0-0 HT or backing Over 0.5 Goals First Half, whichever you prefer. The selections are always value and at this time only from the Premier League, I will be laying to a flat stake of £50.

QPR v Norwich City - Lay HT 0-0 (3.00) LOST
Fulham v Manchester United - Lay HT 0-0 (3.5) LOST
West Ham United v Swansea City - Lay HT 0-0 (3.00) LOST

WOW three losing selections for Saturday, 2nd February, well I guess that was coming, but this is a long term strategy, so not too concerned. No Selections today.

running total =

19 Selections

12 Winners 7 Losers

Total =  -£200

Premier League Betting Value February 2nd

QPR v NORWICH

In truth this is a very hard game to call, especially considering Norwich's dip in form and new signings on both sides. Both Teams to Score does look value at (1.80), seen in 13 of the last 18 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition.

ARSENAL v STOKE

The Half Time Draw (2.50), holds some reasonable value, seen in 13 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. The Home Side to Score Both Halves (2.25), also looks reasonable seen in 13 of the 20 games.

EVERTON v ASTON VILLA

Both Teams to Score (2.10), looks a decent shout, seen in 13 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar opponents.

FULHAM v MANCHESTER UNITED

There is no value in the away side, although it could pay to back them to lead at Half Time (2.25), seen in 12 of the last 19 games featuring these two sides against similar opponents. If you do fancy Fulham, then taking them at + 1 Goal (1.88) on the Asian handicap holds good value. 

NEWCASTLE v CHELSEA

There looks to be some value in Chelsea's price (2.12), there is better value in them to lead at Half Time (2.80), both seen in 11 of the last 19 games featuring these two sides against similar opponents. 

READING v SUNDERLAND

Over 2.5 Goals (2.05), looks good value, seen in 10 of the last 15 games featuring these tow sides against similar level opponents. 

WEST HAM v SWANSEA

Total Goals Range 2-3 (1.85), looks great value, seen in 16 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar opponents.

WIGAN v SOUTHAMPTON

Over 2.5 Goals (1.80), looks a decent option, seen in 11 of the last 16 games featuring these two sides against similar opponents. Both Teams to Score (1.67) also looks value, seen in 12 of the 16 games.

EARLY BIRD LAYS

This is a new system I'm trialling and will post the selections here, it involves laying the 0-0 HT or backing Over 0.5 Goals First Half, whichever you prefer. The selections are always value and at this time only from the Premier League, I will be laying to a flat stake of £50.

 Fulham v West Ham United - Lay HT 0-0 (3.25) WON

One winner last time, three selections for Saturday, 2nd February, 

QPR v Norwich City - Lay HT 0-0 (3.00)
Fulham v Manchester United - Lay HT 0-0 (3.5)
West Ham United v Swansea City - Lay HT 0-0 (3.00)

running total =

16 Selections

12 Winners 4 Losers

Total =  £125