Premier League Betting Value 19th May

CHELSEA v EVERTON

There looks to be some reasonable value in Everton +0.75 goals (2.00)

NEWCASTLE v ARSENAL

Both teams to score No (2.38), looks reasonable, seen in 12 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar level teams. Second Half Result Draw (3.00), a good option, seen in 12 of the 20 games. There looks to be good value in Newcastle +1 goals (2.01)

LIVERPOOL v QPR

There looks to be some decent value in Under 3.5 Goals (1.80), seen in 12 of the last 14 games these sides have played against similar level sides. Both teams to score No (2.00), looks an option, seen in 10 of the 14 games. No value in the Asian Handicap line.

MANCHESTER CITY v NORWICH

Over 3.5 goals (2.30), looks a decent start point on this game, seen in 11 of the last 16 games featuring these two sides against similar level opponents. Second Half Most Goals (2.10), looks strong value, seen in 14 of the 16 games. No value in the Asian Handicap line.

WEST BROM v MANCHESTER UNITED

There looks to be some solid value in the Away side to win (2.00), the only caution being they have been celebrating winning the title, seen though in 14 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar level opposition.  Both teams to score No (2.62), looks a reasonable option, seen in 10 of the 20 games. There looks to be good value in Manchester United -0.5 goals (2.00)

WEST HAM v READING

Home Side to Win Second Half (2.05), looks a good bat, seen in 10 of the last 14 games featuring these two sides against similar level opponents. No value in the Asian Handicap line.

WIGAN v ASTON VILLA

Total Away Goals Over 1.5 (2.75), seems a decent option, seen in 10 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar level opponents. There looks to be good value in Aston Villa +0.5 goals (1.95)

SPURS v SUNDERLAND

The Half Time Draw (2.90), looks a good start point on this game, seen in 14 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Under 2.5 goals (2.55), could be another option, seen in 12 of the 20 games. No value in the Asian Handicap line.

SOUTHAMPTON v STOKE

No Value found on this game, also No value in the Asian Handicap line.

SWANSEA v FULHAM

No Value found on this game, also No value in the Asian Handicap line.

BETSLAYER BEST BETS OF THE DAY

Liverpool v QPR - Both teams to score No (2.00)

Manchester City v Norwich - Second Half Most Goals (2.10)
Wigan v Aston Villa - Aston Villa +0.5 goals (1.95)

Premier League Betting Value May 12th

STOKE v SPURS

A game with little value, looking at the Asian Handicap Stoke +0.5 (1.97) looks reasonable value, although its a must win game for Spurs.

SUNDERLAND v SOUTHAMPTON

The Draw (3.30), looks good value, seen in 9 of the last 17 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. No value in the Asian Handicap Line.

QPR v NEWCASTLE

Under 10.5 Corners (2.15), looks decent, seen in 13 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. No value in the Asian Handicap Line.

NORWICH v WEST BROM

Second Half Result Draw (2.65), looks good value, seen in 14 of the last 20 games these two sides have played against similar opposition. No value in the Asian Handicap Line.

FULHAM v LIVERPOOL

No Value found on this game

EVERTON v WEST HAM

Looks to be some good value in Everton -1 Goal on the Asian Handicap (1.84)

MANCHESTER UNITED v SWANSEA

Home Clean Sheet (1.96), looks reasonable, seen in 10 of the last 16 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Both Teams to Score No (1.95), seen in 11 of the 16 games. No real Value in the Asian Handicap Line.

BETSLAYER BEST BETS OF THE DAY 

Norwich v West Brom - Second Half Result Draw (2.65)
Everton v West Ham - Everton -1 Goal on the Asian Handicap (1.84)
Manchester United v Swansea - Both Teams to Score No (1.95)

Aston Villa v Chelsea Premier League Betting Value May 11th

ASTON VILLA v CHELSEA

Away Clean Sheet (2.88), looks reasonable value, seen in 8 of the last 16 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Looking at the Asian Handicap there is some small value in Aston Villa +0.5 Goals (2.10)


BETSLAYER BEST BET OF THE DAY

As you can see its a quiet day with the FA Cup Final, nothing stands out as strong enough to bet

Premier League Betting Value May 7th

MANCHESTER CITY v WEST BROM

Home side Clean Sheet (2.20), looks great value, seen in 12 of the last 13 games featuring these two sides against similar level opposition. Both Teams to Score No (2.10), also seen in 12 of the 13 games. Total Goals 2-3 (2.10), looks reasonable, seen in 8 of the 13 games. No value in the Asian Handicap Line.

WIGAN v SWANSEA

Over 2.5 Goals (1.96), looks decent value, seen in 10 of the last 15 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. On the face of it there looks to be good value in Swansea +0.75 Goals (1.90) on the Asian Handicap, but I would take caution with this being a must win for Wigan.


BETSLAYER BET OF THE DAY


Manchester City v West Brom - Both Teams to Score No (2.10)

Premier League Betting Value May 5th

LIVERPOOL v EVERTON

Total Home Goals Over 1.5 (2.00), looks about the best of the value, seen in 8 of the last 12 games these two sides have played against similar level opponents. No Value in the Asian Handicap Line.

MANCHESTER UNITED v CHELSEA

The Home win looks reasonable value here (2.20), seen in 11 of the last 17 games featuring these two sides against similar level opposition. Total Goals 2-3 (1.95), looks reasonable, seen in 10 of the 17 games. Manchester United -0.25 (1.91), holds some reasonable value.

BETSLAYER BEST BET OF THE DAY

Liverpool v Everton - Total Home Goals Over 1.5 (2.00)

Premier League Betting Value May 4th

SWANSEA v MANCHESTER CITY

Half Time Draw (2.30), looks a great start point for this game, seen in 11 of the last 13 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Under 2.5 Goals (2.02), looks strong, seen in 10 of the 13 games. Looking at the Asian Handicap Swansea +0.75 (1.95) holds some reasonable value.

SPURS v SOUTHAMPTON

Half Time Draw (2.55), looks a great start point for this game, seen in 8 of the last 12 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Under 2.5 Goals (2.30), looks strong, seen in 7 of the 12 games. No Value in the Asian Handicap Line.

WEST BROM v WIGAN

There looks to be some reasonable value in the Home Side (2.45), seen 8 of the last 15 games featuring these two sides against similar opponents. Looking at the Asian Handicap West Brom -0.25 (2.10) holds some good value. 

WEST HAM v NEWCASTLE

There looks to be some reasonable value in the Home side to win the Second Half (2.80), seen 11 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar opponents. Total Goals 2-3 (2.10), holds decent value, seen 14 of the 20 games. Looking at the Asian Handicap West Ham -0.25 (2.00) holds some good value. 

NORWICH v ASTON VILLA

Second Half Result Draw (2.65), looks strong, seen in 13 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Under 10.5 corners (2.15), holds great value, seen in 14 of the 20 games. Looking at the Asian Handicap Norwich 0 goals (1.90) holds some good value.

FULHAM v READING

Second Half the Most Goals (2.15), looks reasonable, seen in 10 of the last 16 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition.Looking at the Asian Handicap Fulham -0.75 (2.04) holds some good value.

QPR v ARSENAL

No Value in the Odds or Asian Handicap Line.

BETSLAYER BEST BETS OF THE DAY 

West Ham v Newcastle - Total Goals 2-3 (2.10)

Norwich v Aston Villa - Under 10.5 corners (2.15)

Fulham v Reading - Fulham -0.75 goals (2.04)

Premier League Betting Value April 28th

READING v QPR

Under 2.5 Goals (2.20), looks reasonable value, seen in 8 of the last 13 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Both Teams to Score No (2.50), holds reasonable value, seen in 7 of the 13 games. Total Goals 2-3 (1.95), looks good, seen in 9 of the 13 games. Second Half Under 1.5 Goals (2.00), again holds good value, seen in 11 of the 13 games. No Value in the Asian Handicap line.

CHELSEA v SWANSEA

Under 2.5 Goals (2.50), looks reasonable value, seen in 8 of the last 12 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Home Clean Sheet (2.20), looks strong, seen in 8 of the 12 games. Both Teams to Score No (2.10), again looks good, seen in 10 of the 12 games.  Second Half Under 1.5 Goals (2.05), again holds good value, seen in 8 of the 12 games. No Value in the Asian Handicap line.

ARSENAL v MANCHESTER UNITED

The Away win (3.60), looks decent value, winning 8 times in the last 19 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Under 2.5 Goals (2.19), holds reasonable value, seen in 11 of the 19 games. Under 10.5 corners (2.30), looks an option, seen in 11 of the 19 games. Manchester United +0.25 Goals (2.15), looks good value on the Asian Handicap.

BETSLAYER BETS OF THE DAY

Chelsea v Swansea - Both Teams to Score No (2.10)
Arsenal v Manchester United - Manchester United +0.25 Goals (2.15)

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Premier League Betting Value April 27th

MANCHESTER CITY v WEST HAM

Home Clean Sheet (2.00), looks good solid value, seen in 15 of the last 20 games these two sides have played against similar opposition. Both Teams to Score No (1.87), is another value option, also seen in 15 of the 20 games. Second Half Most Goals (2.10), could be an good bet, seen in 13 of the 20 games. No Value in the Asian Handicap Line 

EVERTON v FULHAM

Under 10.5 corners (1.95), looks a good value selection, seen in 14 of the last 19 games featuring these two sides against similar opponents. No Value in the Asian Handicap Line

WIGAN v TOTTENHAM

The Draw (3.60), looks a reasonable start point on this game, seen in 9 of the last 19 games these two sides have played against similar opposition. Away side to win the Second Half (2.55), looks a decent shout, seen in 10 of the 19 games. Looks to be some good value in Spurs -0.25 (1.86).

SOUTHAMPTON v WEST BROM

Both Teams to Score (1.75), looks a reasonable bet, seen in 11 of the last 15 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Second Half Result Draw (2.75), great value, seen in 10 of the 15 games. Looks to be some value in West Brom +0.75 Goals (1.99).

STOKE v NORWICH

Under 10.5 corners (1.95), looks a good value selection, seen in 13 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar opponents. No real Value in the Asian Handicap Line

NEWCASTLE v LIVERPOOL

Home Side to win Either Half (2.00), looks a reasonable option, seen in 12 of the last 18 games featuring these two sides against similar opponents. Under 10.5 corners (2.50), looks a good value selection, seen in 13 of the 18 games. No Value in the Asian Handicap Line 

BETSLAYER BEST BET OF THE DAY

Manchester City v West Ham - Home Clean Sheet (2.00)

Premier League Betting Value April 20th and 21st

WEST BROM v NEWCASTLE

2-3 Goals (1.95), looks reasonable, seen in 10 of the last 15 games featuring these two sides against similar level opponents. The away side to score first (2.25), could be worth a look, seen in 14 of the 15 games. No Value in the Asian Handicap line.

WEST HAM v WIGAN

There looks to be some small value in the Home Side to win the Race to 2 Goals (2.62), seen in 10 of the last 20 games these two sides have played against similar level opponents. Again the away side to score First (2.25), looks worth a look, seen in 16 of the 20 games. The Second Half the Most Goals (2.20), looks decent seen in 12 of the 20 games. No Value in the Asian Handicap line.

SUNDERLAND v EVERTON

Not an easy game to find value, Both Teams to Score (1.91), looks about the best, seen in 12 of the last 19 games featuring these two sides against similar level opponents. Total Goals 2-3 (1.90), also seen in 12 of the 19 games. Again the away side to score First (1.85), looks worth a look, seen in 15 of the 19 games. There could be some value in backing Sunderland +0.25 (2.02) on the Asian Handicap.

SWANSEA v SOUTHAMPTON

Over 2.5 Goals (1.85), looks good, seen in 11 of the last 15 games featuring these two sides against similar level opponents. In fact Over 3.5 Goals (3.10), could be an option, seen in 9 of the 15 games. Home Side to win Second Half (2.80), looks good, seen in 11 of the 15 games. Again the away side to score First (2.20), looks worth a look, seen in 11 of the 15 games. Total Home Goals Over 1.5 (2.20), looks strong seen in 12 of the 15 games.  No Value in the Asian Handicap line.

FULHAM v ARSENAL

Tough game with very little value, perhaps if you must bet the Half Time Draw (2.40) is worth a look, seen in 10 of the last 19 games featuring these two sides against similar level opponents. No Value in the Asian Handicap line.

NORWICH v READING

No Value found on this game.

QPR v STOKE

Both Teams to Score (1.95), looks reasonable, seen 12 of the last 19 games these two sides have played against similar level opponents. Stoke +0.25 (2.01), looks value on the Asian Handicap.

SPURS v MANCHESTER CITY

Lay Manchester City (2.30), the away side winning only 3 times in 19 games featuring these two sides against similar level opponents. Spurs +0.25 (1.88) looks value on the Asian Handicap.

LIVERPOOL v CHELSEA

No Value in Asian Handicap line. Total Goals 2-3 (1.95), looks good, seen in 12 of the last 18 games featuring these two sides against similar opponents.

BETSLAYER BET OF THE DAY

Sunderland v Everton - Sunderland +0.25 (2.02)
Liverpool v Chelsea - Total Goals 2-3 (1.95)

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EARLY BIRD LAYS

This is a new system I'm trialling and will post the selections here, it involves laying the 0-0 HT or backing Over 0.5 Goals First Half, whichever you prefer. The selections are always value using BetFormPro statistical software, 28 free trial available here , at this time selections are only from the Premier League, I will be laying to a flat stake of £50.


West Ham v Manchester United - Lay HT 0-0 (3.50) WON
Fulham v Chelsea - Lay HT 0-0 (3.25) WON

2 winning selection last time, today we have two selections

Swansea v Southampton - Lay HT 0-0 (3.35)
QPR v Stoke - Lay HT 0-0 (2.75)

running total =

32 Selections

22 Winners 10 Losers

Total =  -£50

Premier League Betting Value April 16th

MANCHESTER CITY v WIGAN

Home Side to Win Both Halves (2.60), looks a good option in a tough game to find value, seen in 12 of the last 19 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Second Half the Most Goals (2.10), looks great value seen in 15 of the 19 games. Total Home Goals Over 2.5 (2.10), looks another value option, seen in 12 of the 19 games. No value in the Asian Handicap Line

WEST HAM v MANCHESTER UNITED

Some reasonable value in Manchester United to win (1.72), away win seen in 14 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar level opposition , looking at the Asian Handicap there is some good value in Manchester United -0.75 Goals (2.01), winning 8 of the last 10 games against similar level opponents.

FULHAM v CHELSEA

A good start point on this game is the Away side to be leading at Half Time (2.50), seen in 11 of the last 19 games featuring these two sides against similar level opponents. Over 2.5 Goals (1.83), looks strong, seen in 14 of the 19 games, although this is not backed up in the head to heads at the Cottage. Chelsea -0.75 (1.95) looks good value on the Asian Handicap Line

BETSLAYER BET OF THE DAY

Manchester City v Wigan - Second Half the Most Goals (2.10)

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EARLY BIRD LAYS

This is a new system I'm trialling and will post the selections here, it involves laying the 0-0 HT or backing Over 0.5 Goals First Half, whichever you prefer. The selections are always value using BetFormPro statistical software, 28 free trial available here , at this time selections are only from the Premier League, I will be laying to a flat stake of £50.

Spurs v Everton - Lay HT 0-0 (3.00) WON

QPR v Wigan  - Lay HT 0-0 (3.25) LOSS

1 winning selection last time, one loser, today we have two selections

West Ham v Manchester United - Lay HT 0-0 (3.50)
Fulham v Chelsea - Lay HT 0-0 (3.25)

running total =

30 Selections

20 Winners 10 Losers

Total =  -£145

Premier League Betting Value April 14th

NEWCASTLE v SUNDERLAND

No Value Found on this game and no advantage in the Asian Handicap line.

STOKE v MANCHESTER UNITED

There looks to be some decent value in the Draw (3.90), seen in 9 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar level opponents. There is some reasonable value in Under 2.5 Goals (1.83), seen in 14 of the 20 games. Second Half Result Draw (2.70), looks a good option, seen in 12 of the 20 games. Stoke +1 Goal (1.80), looks good value on the Asian Handicap, only losing 5 times in the 20 games.

BETSLAYER BET OF THE DAY

Stoke v Manchester United - Stoke +1 Goal (1.80) on the Asian Handicap.

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Premier League Betting Value April 13th

SOUTHAMPTON v WEST HAM

Under 2.5 Goals (2.23), looks a reasonable option, seen in 11 of the last 19 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition.

EVERTON v QPR

Both Teams to Score (1.95), looks to hold some value, seen in 9 of the last 13 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Home side the win Second Half (1.87), again looks to hold reasonable value, also seen in 9 of the 13 games.

READING v LIVERPOOL

No Value found on this game

ARSENAL v NORWICH

Both Teams to Score (2.10), looks to hold some value, seen in 14 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition.

ASTON VILLA v FULHAM

No Value found on this game

BETSLAYER BET OF THE DAY

No Bet, hopefully more tomorrow

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Manchester Derby Betting Value April 8th

MANCHESTER UNITED v MANCHESTER CITY

In this Manchester Derby there looks to be good value in the Home Side Manchester United (2.30), the home win seen 11 times in the last 19 games featuring these two sides against similar level opposition. A good option if you do fancy United to win is the Winning Margin 1 goal (4.33), seen 8 times in the 11 wins. Looking at the Asian Handicap Manchester United - 0.25 goals (1.98) looks a good value option.

BETSLAYER BET OF THE DAY

Manchester United v Manchester City - Asian Handicap Manchester United - 0.25 goals (1.98)

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Premier League Betting Value April 7th

LIVERPOOL v WEST HAM

Home Clean Sheet (2.10), looks reasonable here seen in 12 of the last 18 games these two sides have featured in against similar level opposition. Both Teams to Score No (2.10) which covers the previous bet is the better option, seen in 13 of the 20 games. There looks to be reasonable value in West Ham +1.5 Goals (2.07).

SPURS v EVERTON 

Value about the Home side Spurs to win (2.20), seen in 8 of the last 12 games featuring these two sides against similar level opposition. Over 2.5 Goals (2.18), looks reasonable seen in 8 of the 12 games. Spurs Race to 2 goals (2.60), also looks an option, seen in 7 of the 12 games. Along the same lines, but a safer option Total Home Goals Over 1.5 (2.38), seen in 9 of the 12 games. No Value in the Asian Handicap Line.

NEWCASTLE v FULHAM

Home Side to Win the Second Half (2.60), seen in 12 of the last 19 games featuring these two sides against similar level opponents.Total Goals Range 2-3 (1.90), looks good seen in 13 of the 19 games. There looks to be some reasonable value in Fulham +0.5 (1.94) on the Asian Handicap.

CHELSEA v SUNDERLAND

Home Clean Sheet (1.90), looks a good value bet, seen in 13 of the last 19 games featuring these two sides against similar level opponents. Another alternative is Both Teams to Score No (1.75), seen in 14 of the 19 games. No Value in the Asian Handicap Line.

QPR v WIGAN

There is no value about QPR (2.40), home side winning only 4 of the last 18 games featuring these two sides against similar level opposition. Over 2.5 Goals (1.90), looks good seen in 12 of the 18 games. Both Teams to Score (1.73), again looks strong seen in 13 of 18 games. Race to 2 Goals Away (3.30), is an option seen in 9 of the 18 games. Along the same lines is Wigan Over 1.5 Goals (2.88), also seen in 9 of the 18 games. There looks to be some good value in Wigan +0.25 Goals (1.89) on the Asian Handicap.

BETSLAYER BETS OF THE DAY

Chelsea v Sunderland - Home Clean Sheet (1.90)
Liverpool v West Ham - Both Teams to Score NO (2.10)

QPR v Wigan - Wigan +0.25 (1.89)

BetsLayer Powered by BetFormPro

EARLY BIRD LAYS

This is a new system I'm trialling and will post the selections here, it involves laying the 0-0 HT or backing Over 0.5 Goals First Half, whichever you prefer. The selections are always value using BetFormPro statistical software, 28 free trial available here , at this time selections are only from the Premier League, I will be laying to a flat stake of £50.


West Ham v West Brom - Lay HT 0-0 (3.10) WON
Wigan v Norwich - Lay HT 0-0 (3.15) LOSS
Manchester City v Newcastle - Lay HT 0-0 (3.90) WON


2 winning selections last time, one loser, today we have two selections

Spurs v Everton - Lay HT 0-0 (3.00)

QPR v Wigan  - Lay HT 0-0 (3.25)

running total =

28 Selections

19 Winners 9 Losers

Total =  -£80

Premier League Betting Value April 6th

READING v SOUTHAMPTON

The Draw (3.60), looks a good value start point on this game, seen in 7 of the last 14 games featuring these two sides against similar level opposition. There is also some reasonable value in the Second Half Result Draw (2.75), also seen in 7 of the 14 games. No value in the Asian Handicap line.

WEST BROM v ARSENAL 

The Half Time Draw (2.38), looks a great start point to this game, seen in 15 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar level opposition. Under 2.5 Goals (2.20), looks to hold reasonable value, seen in 11 of the 20 games, this is also mirrored in the league average when teams of this level have previously met. Under 3.5 Goals is also value (1.45), seen in 17 of the 20 games, which could indicate for the safer punter going with say Under 3 Goals or 2.75 Goals. Both Teams to Score No (2.38), looks another value option, seen in 11 of the 20 games. On the Asian Handicap, there looks good value in West Brom +0.5 (1.71) or +0.25 (1.96)

STOKE v ASTON VILLA

The Draw (3.50), looks a reasonable value start point on this game, seen in 8 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar level opposition. There is no value in the Asian Handicap line with such a strong draw bias.

NORWICH v SWANSEA

There looks reasonable value in the Home Clean Sheet (3.00), seen in 10 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. There looks to be good value in the Asian Handicap Norwich +0 Goals (1.89)

BETSLAYER BET OF THE DAY

Norwich v Swansea - Asian Handicap Norwich +0 Goals (1.89)

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Fulham v QPR Betting Value April 1st

FULHAM v QPR

Fulham look to hold some good value, to be leading at Half Time (2.75), looks a good start point, seen in 12 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar level opponents. Fulham to win (2.05), also looks strong, seen in 14 of the 20 games. Over 2.5 Goals (1.98), looks another strong value option, seen in 14 of the 20 games.

Looking at the Asian Handicap Fulham -0.5 (2.05), holds some decent value as its basically Fulham to win as above.

BETSLAYER BET OF THE DAY

Asian Handicap Fulham -0.5 (2.05)

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Aston Villa v Liverpool Betting Value March 31st

ASTON VILLA v LIVERPOOL

There is no value about Liverpool here at (1.75). Looking at the Asian Handicap Aston Villa +0.75 (2.05) looks a good value option, the away side only winning 8 from the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar level opponents. There could be some sense in backing the Home side to win a half (2.88), seen 12 times in the 20 games.

BETSLAYER BET OF THE DAY

Aston Villa v Liverpool - Asian Handicap Aston Villa +0.75 (2.05)

BetsLayer Powered by BetFormPro

EARLY BIRD LAYS

This is a new system I'm trialling and will post the selections here, it involves laying the 0-0 HT or backing Over 0.5 Goals First Half, whichever you prefer. The selections are always value using BetFormPro statistical software, 28 free trial available here , at this time selections are only from the Premier League, I will be laying to a flat stake of £50.


West Ham v West Brom - Lay HT 0-0 (3.10) WON
Wigan v Norwich - Lay HT 0-0 (3.15) LOSS
Manchester City v Newcastle - Lay HT 0-0 (3.90) WON


2 winning selections last time, one loser, today we have no selection

running total =

28 Selections

19 Winners 9 Losers

Total =  -£80

Premier League Betting Value March 30th

SUNDERLAND v MANCHESTER UNITED

No real value found on this game, looking at my predictive model, there does though appear to be value in Manchester United -1 goal on the Asian Handicap (2.10).

WEST HAM v WEST BROM

Total Goals 2-3 (1.90). looks reasonable, seen in 14 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Under 10.5 Corners (2.65), looks an option, seen in 12 of the 20 games. No Value found in the Handicap line.

WIGAN v NORWICH

There is no value about an odds on Wigan (1.97), the draw could be a good option at (3.64), seen in 8 of the last 19 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Over 2.5 Goals (1.95), looks a decent selection, seen in 15 of the 19 games. Both Teams to Score (1.78), holds some good value, seen in 17 of the 19 games. As above the value lies in the draw and the away side, so Norwich +0.5 Goals on the Asian Handicap (1.99) looks the call.

SWANSEA v SPURS

The Half Time Draw (2.30), looks a reasonable starting position on this game, seen in 13 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar level opponents. No other value found, including in the Asian Handicap line, some small value in Swansea but not really enough to bet.

MANCHESTER CITY v NEWCASTLE

Manchester City (home) to Score Both Halves (1.93), looks strong seen in 15 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar level opponents. No value in the Asian Handicap line.

SOUTHAMPTON v CHELSEA

Another tough game to find value on, Chelsea -0.25 (1.92) on the Asian Handicap looks a reasonable bet looking at the predictive model. Chelsea have only lost 2 of the last 10 against similar level opponents, winning 6.

ARSENAL v READING

No Value found including in the Asian Handicap line.

EVERTON v STOKE

The Half Time Draw (2.40), again looks a reasonable starting position on this game, seen in 11 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar level opponents. There is a strong draw bias to this game (4.00), looks a good price, seen in 9 of the last 20 games. Under normal circumstances, I would say there was value in Everton on the Handicap -0.75 (1.84), but with 4 key players out its a swerve for me.

BETSLAYER BETS OF THE DAY

Wigan v Norwich - Over 2.5 Goals (1.95)

Manchester City to Score Both Halves (1.93)
Everton v Stoke - The Half Time Draw (2.40)

BetsLayer Powered by BetFormPro

EARLY BIRD LAYS

This is a new system I'm trialling and will post the selections here, it involves laying the 0-0 HT or backing Over 0.5 Goals First Half, whichever you prefer. The selections are always value using BetFormPro statistical software, 28 free trial available here , at this time selections are only from the Premier League, I will be laying to a flat stake of £50.

Sunderland v Norwich - Lay HT 0-0 (3.00) WON

1 winning selections last time, today we have one selection

West Ham v West Brom - Lay HT 0-0 (3.10)
Wigan v Norwich - Lay HT 0-0 (3.15)
Manchester City v Newcastle - Lay HT 0-0 (3.90)

running total =

25 Selections

17 Winners 8 Losers

Total =  -£67.5

Premier League Betting Value March 17th

SUNDERLAND v NORWICH

There is not much value around this game, Sunderland do look good on the Asian Handicap -0.25 (1.79), Norwich have a very poor away record against similar level sides, losing 8 of the last 10 games.

SPURS v FULHAM

Under 2.5 goals (2.31), looks great value, seen in 12 of the last 19 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Home Clean Sheet (2.20), looks a reasonable option, seen in 13 of the 19 games. A better option if you do fancy a Spurs clean sheet is Both Teams to Score NO (2.20), seen in 14 of the 19 games. 

WIGAN v NEWCASTLE

Again a tough game to find solid value, what there is appears to be on the away side, Newcastle +0.25 (2.01) looks a good option on the Asian Handicap, the home side only winning 4 out of the last 19 games involving these two sides against similar level opponents. For something a little different the Half with Most Goals Draw (3.75), looks good value, seen in 8 of the 19 games. The away side to score Over 1.5 Goals (2.75) looks another good value option, seen in 12 of the 19 games.

CHELSEA v WEST HAM

The Home side to be leading at Half Time (1.91), looks a good start point on this game, seen in 13 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. There is value about Chelsea although at (1.40) not enough unless you are a big hitter. Perhaps a better option is Chelsea -1.25 Goals (1.84), the home side winning 17 out of the 20 games, 12 by 2 or more goals. Both Teams to Score NO (2.10), looks another decent shout, seen in 12 of the 20 games.

BETSLAYER BETS OF THE DAY

Sunderland -0.25 Goals (1.79)

Spurs v Fulham Under 2.75 Goals (2.02)

Chelsea -1.25 Goals (1.84)

BetsLayer Powered by BetFormPro

EARLY BIRD LAYS

This is a new system I'm trialling and will post the selections here, it involves laying the 0-0 HT or backing Over 0.5 Goals First Half, whichever you prefer. The selections are always value using BetFormPro statistical software, 28 free trial available here , at this time selections are only from the Premier League, I will be laying to a flat stake of £50.

Southampton v QPR - Lay HT 0-0 (3.25) WON

Everton v Reading - Lay HT 0-0 (3.75) WON

Spurs v Arsenal - Lay HT 0-0 (3.60) WON

3 winning selections last time, no selections last weekend, today we have one selection

Sunderland v Norwich - Lay HT 0-0 (3.00)

running total =

24 Selections

16 Winners 8 Losers

Total =  -£115

Premier League Betting Value March 16th

EVERTON v MANCHESTER CITY

There looks to be value about the home side and looking at the ratings, this might be best utilised on the Asian Handicap with Everton available with +0.25 (2.20) or +0.5 (1.90). The home side have won 9 of the last 18 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition, losing only 5. There is some slim value about Under 2.5 Goals (2.10), but looking at these two level of sides playing against each other over the last 3 seasons not quite enough to bet. Second Half Under 1.5 Goals (1.91), looks good value, seen in 13 of the 18 games. 

SOUTHAMPTON v LIVERPOOL

Tough game with very little value available, Southampton do look some value on the Asian Handicap +0.5 (1.96).

STOKE v WEST BROM

Over 2.5 Goals (2.29) , looks decent value, seen in 12 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. 

SWANSEA v ARSENAL 

The Half Time Draw (2.38), looks a good start point on this game, seen in 13 of the last 20 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. The Full Time Draw (3.55), also holds some value, seen in 10 of the 20 games. Under 2.5 Goals (2.30), looks solid value, seen in 14 of the 20 games. Looking at the Handicap Swansea +0.25 (1.97), looks strong especially in a game with such a strong draw bias.

ASTON VILLA v QPR

No Value found on this game.

MAMCHESTER UNITED v READING

Home Clean Sheet (1.95), looks decent value, seen in 8 of the last 12 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. 

BETSLAYER BET OF THE DAY

Swansea v Arsenal - Under 2.75 Goals (2.02)

BetsLayer Powered by BetFormPro

EARLY BIRD LAYS

This is a new system I'm trialling and will post the selections here, it involves laying the 0-0 HT or backing Over 0.5 Goals First Half, whichever you prefer. The selections are always value using BetFormPro statistical software, 28 free trial available here , at this time selections are only from the Premier League, I will be laying to a flat stake of £50.

Southampton v QPR - Lay HT 0-0 (3.25) WON

Everton v Reading - Lay HT 0-0 (3.75) WON

Spurs v Arsenal - Lay HT 0-0 (3.60) WON

3 winning selections last time, no selections last weekend, tomorrow we have no selections

running total =

24 Selections

16 Winners 8 Losers

Total =  -£115

Premier League Betting Value March 10th

NEWCASTLE v STOKE

Both Teams to Score (2.00) Looks reasonable, seen in 12 of the last 19 games featuring these two teams against similar level opposition. For something different some longer odds value can be found in the first half Over 1.5 Goals (3.40), seen in 8 of the 19 games.

LIVERPOOL v SPURS

The Draw (4.10), looks a good bet, seen in 6 of the last 16 games featuring these two teams against similar level opposition. Total Goals 2-3 (1.95), looks a solid option, seen in 11 of the 16 games.

BETSLAYER BET OF THE DAY

Liverpool v Spurs - Total Goals 2-3 (1.95)

BetsLayer Powered by BetFormPro

EARLY BIRD LAYS

This is a new system I'm trialling and will post the selections here, it involves laying the 0-0 HT or backing Over 0.5 Goals First Half, whichever you prefer. The selections are always value using BetFormPro statistical software, 28 free trial available here , at this time selections are only from the Premier League, I will be laying to a flat stake of £50.

Southampton v QPR - Lay HT 0-0 (3.25) WON

Everton v Reading - Lay HT 0-0 (3.75) WON

Spurs v Arsenal - Lay HT 0-0 (3.60) WON

3 winning selections last weekend, no selections today

running total =

24 Selections

16 Winners 8 Losers

Total =  -£115

Premier League Shot on Target Analysis

SOT Corner
with Jonny Grossmark

Welcome to SOT corner and a review of the 4 Saturday Premier League games have just finished and I am going to highlight why you should bet around 85% of the time during the game ie as time decays as this will give you an edge over your friends who only bet just before a game .

I am going to show you the data that I looked at to decide if a trigger bet should have been made. 

Norwich 0 Southampton 0 HT 

If I open up my excel sheets I can see that Norwich have lost 0% of games when 0-0 HT at home in the EPL this season and Southampton have won 0% FT. I have no worries about this being a small sample as in running goal expectation has no interest in what happened in 1974. 

I am looking to see if I want to trigger a bet on Norwich Draw No Bet so i looked at the danger ie Southampton winning the second half and Norwich had one shot on target (SOT) in the first half and Southampton 3 so this does not induce confidence in a trigger on Norwich Draw no bet as only around 18% of teams win when a lower amount of SOT FT so in effect you are betting on Norwich and thinking their shot on target production will improve. 

A major factor in trigger betting is the weather and the pitch looked like a mud bath so the advice was NO BET. FT 0-0. 

Norwich 2 SOT Southampton 5 SOT. 

Average home SOT for 0-0 FT in EPL is 3 and away SOT is also 3 so we could argue that there was expectation of a Southampton goal but given the rain/snow you would be mad to take any notice of the SOT in this game. 

Average away SOT for a 0-1 FT in the EPL this season is 4.14 but this game cannot be profiled due to the weather.

If you are serious about betting at any level then you should not ignore the academic output in this area. It was Dixon and Robinson (1998) who discovered that when the away team scores the first goal of a game in the early part of the first half then this accelerates the expected goal production to the HOME team.

I use an excel sheet to see how this works in the EPL and have written many articles on how the early away goal effects goal expectation.

My conclusion is that an early goal (I use 0-20 mins as my time band ) will accelerate goal expectation to the Home team ie they should score more goals then expected before the game started so if you backed Under 2.5 goals in this game then your bet was sunk when Sunderland scored on 20 mins.

90% of games where the away team score the first goal 0-20 mins this season have ended BOTH Teams to score YES , with the BTTS No made up of bottom 6 teams so my initial thought when Sunderland scored the first goal was would QPR fightback ? 

HT QPR 1 Sunderland 1

In this situation we have a new trend that has formed which is 46% of games where it has been 1-1 HT in the EPL have ended FT DRAW this season with just WBA(2), SPURS(2), Arsenal(2) and Reading(1) winning at Home full time.

The question on my mind was could QPR join them ?

At HT the QPR SOT was 3 and the Sunderland SOT was 1 so to back Sunderland + 0,25 goals in the second half looked a non starter.

The average away SOT when the away side win FT when 1-1 Ht in the EPL this season is 6.38 so the profile re an away win just did not fit unless you had the thought that Sunderland would accelerate SOT production and there was not anything to suggest that would happen .

There was no trigger in this game for me and at 2-1 it is interesting that BET365 were promoting the 2-2 scoreline as 2-2 FT does not fit the profile of this game . Average SOT for the away team is 5 when 1-1 HT > 2-2 FT in the EPL this season and Sunderland only managed 1 second half SOT

In summary the QPR second goal impeded goal expectation to Sunderland which at HT was very low anyway. The danger of backing QPR - 0.25 goals at HT was the possibilty of a 1-1 FT score. You could argue in hindsight that i have failed to understand Dixon 1998 and Grossmark 2012 /13 as the early away goal accelerates goal expectation to the home team but the DRAW data re 46% Draws FT put me off the trigger.

QPR Draw no Bet would have been a bet to nothing in my eyes at HT.

Aston Villa had to win this game to put pressure on Wigan, Historically the three teams that have gone done have conceded the most shots and using this strategy produces QPR and Reading and Villa as likely to be relegated so we shall see if this data holds at the end of the season.

Reading 1 Villa 2 and the stat that stands out is that no AWAY team had won the second half this season when 1-2 HT.

The betting was Villa + 0.25 goals so the question is would you trigger the bet ?

My thought at HT was that there was so much at stake in this game that a trigger bet would be madness. It was very interesting that at HT there was 3SOT and 3 goals and my experience tells me to avoid games like that.

FT Reading 3SOT Villa 4SOT

There was a case for thinking that the second Villa goal should have resulted in further goal(s) but this game fits the only other 1-2 HT > 1-2 FT like a glove . Wigan v WBA was 1-2 Ht > 1-2 FT and 4SOT v 4SOT . The goals are not in the same order but are in the same time band . 32 33 45 v 31 43 44.

I have spent years looking at football data and if you believe that football is random then don't read my artcles but if you believe that goal expectation will give you a massive edge then you need to work really hard to build an understanding and a database.

We are here to help you on your SOT journey.

No BET.

The first thing to remember in the WBA game is that at HT 1-1 there were 46% DRAWS FT in the EPL this season and that there are very few teams that have won FT this season at HT when 1-1 HT but WBA were in that league.

At HT I would never have wanted to trigger a bet on Swansea and at 2 SOT v 1 SOT Swansea did not look very inspiring.

Swansea only had one SOT in the second hald and WBA managed 3 and have now won FT when 1-1 HT at home more times then any other EPL team (3).

I would never had triggered a bet on WBA at HT as the draw FT was a big danger. Once WBA scored on 61 then expectation of a fight back was close to zero with my data which is why i am so confident that goal expectation analysis has such an edge.

FT 2-1 and 1-1 HT reads average Home SOT of 4.75 and away SOT of 4.75. In this game the FT SOT was 5 v 2. In my eyes Swansea were never going to score in the second half.

If you are obsessive about power tables and betting on pre off goal expectation then we have some bad news for you over the next few weeks.

Premier League Betting Value March 9th

NORWICH v SOUTHAMPTON

The Draw (3.40), looks to hold some reasonable interest, seen in 8 of the 18 games featuring these two sides against similar level opposition. Second Half Result Draw (2.75), also looks a reasonable option, seen in 11 of the 18 games. Another longer odds reasonable bet on this game is again a Draw option on the Half with Most goals (3.75), seen in 8 of the 18 games.

QPR v SUNDERLAND

Both Teams to Score (1.91), looks good value, seen in 13 of the 18 games featuring these two sides against similar level opposition. 

READING v ASTON VILLA

The Draw (3.50), again looks to hold some reasonable interest, seen in 6 of the 13 games featuring these two sides against similar level opposition. Under 2.5 Goals (2.07) could be a reasonable option, especially given the importance of this game as a relegation battle, seen in 9 of the 13 games. Second Half Result Draw (2.65), also looks a reasonable option, seen in 9 of the 13 games.

WEST BROM v SWANSEA

Both Teams to Score No (2.30), looks reasonable, seen in 12 of the 20 games featuring these two sides against similar level opposition. Total Goals 2-3 (1.90), again looks reasonable, seen in 13 of the 20 games. 

BETSLAYER BET OF THE DAY

No Bet today, in what is a low quality day, hopefully will be happier with what's on offer tomorrow.

BetsLayer Powered by BetFormPro

EARLY BIRD LAYS

This is a new system I'm trialling and will post the selections here, it involves laying the 0-0 HT or backing Over 0.5 Goals First Half, whichever you prefer. The selections are always value using BetFormPro statistical software, 28 free trial available here , at this time selections are only from the Premier League, I will be laying to a flat stake of £50.

Southampton v QPR - Lay HT 0-0 (3.25) WON

Everton v Reading - Lay HT 0-0 (3.75) WON

Spurs v Arsenal - Lay HT 0-0 (3.60) WON

3 winning selections last weekend, no selections today

running total =

24 Selections

16 Winners 8 Losers

Total =  -£115

Premier League Shot on Target Analysis

SOT Corner 
with Jonny Grossmark and Rob Tattersall

Please find below a table showing shot on target (SOT) data for the EPL. There has been a recent interest in this area and it is our hope over the next few weeks to show you how to apply this to improve your betting.

English Premier League Shot on Target Data 2012 /2013 season 8th March, 2013 

	SOT	Goals	G/SOT	Home SOT	Away SOT
Spurs	181	49	0.27	98	83
Man City	173	51	0.29	87	86
Man Utd	164	68	0.41	88	76
Everton	161	44	0.27	87	74
Liverpool	161	53	0.33	95	66
Chelsea	156	56	0.36	89	67
Arsenal	149	53	0.36	86	63
Newcastle	141	38	0.27	81	60
Swansea	134	39	0.29	82	52
Fulham	128	39	0.3	71	57
WBA	112	38	0.34	66	46
QPR	110	21	0.19	65	45
Southamton	114	39	0.34	64	50
Wigan	120	33	0.28	62	58
West Ham	116	32	0.28	68	48
Sunderland	110	31	0.28	56	54
Norwich	99	27	0.27	55	44
Reading	89	34	0.38	47	42
Aston Villa	92	26	0.28	48	44
Stoke	86	26	0.3	52	34

SOT can be used to build a predictive model which will give you goal expectation for each team but SOT is much more flexible than that and can allow for a greater understanding of goal expectation in running (as time decays in a game) if you are willing to take the journey and understand the variables that impede and accelerate goal expectation.

In SOT corner today we can see that the average goal to shot on target ratio is (0.30) in the EPL with the range QPR (0.19) to Man UTD (0.41). We can also see for example that Spurs average a high number of SOT per game (6.46) but are not efficient and should score more goals (0.27).

The SOT table is only a starting point of your journey and you should as soon as research time is available put SOT into time bands so you can see how effective teams are as time decays. Some teams start quickly and some teams SOT output is higher at the end of games and you can take advantage of this type of data.

One area to take this strategy further is you need to be looking at keying shot strength and location data as SOT only data is of limited use. For example was the SOT a 40 yard weak shot or in the box at close range and the keeper made a fine save ?

Once you get to the level of keying shot strength data then the interpretation is key and we will show you how to make the most use of this by assigning teams a category level, but this must be adaptive over a season as circimstances change. It needs to be a flexible strategy because like Aston Villa have recently shown a team can go down the categories and this needs to be incorporated into your strategy.

Each week in SOT corner Football Data Analyst Jonny Grossmark will join us as we build up a picture of how to take advantage of SOT data.

As discussed above you can get SOT data from many places including OPTA, a 442 app (see below) and ESPN but you cannot buy shot strength data if you are an individual so you will have to learn to key it yourself, although as seen below a start point could be shots inside and outside the box.