BetsLayer Premier League Betting Value October 28th

BetsLayer Betting Value Highlights and Selections

Everton v Liverpool - Everton look the value here, the Home side to be leading at Half Time is (3.40), seen in 7 of the 13 games featuring these two sides against similar opponents. The Home side to win the match (2.70) also looks good featuring in 7 of the 13 games. If you fancy a longer odds shout, you could do worse than the Home side to be leading 1-0 at HT, available at (5.00) and seen in 7 of the 13 games, so holding a healthy amount of value. The Home side to win either Half (1.81) could be an option, seen in 9 of the 13 games. The Away side to have the Most Corners (2.00) looks strong, having been the outcome in 8 of the 13 games and 5 of Everton's last 7 at home against similar opponents. Finally the Home side to score the Last Goal (2.00), looks solid happening in 9 of the 13 games.

Southampton v Spurs - Laying Spurs at (1.85) could be a good start point, although doesn't hold too much value. The Half Time Draw (2.55) could be a decent option, seen in 5 of Spurs last 10 away against similar opponents. Holding similar value is Under 2.5 Goals (2.54) also seen in 5 of the last 10 Spurs away against similar opponents. Over 10.5 Corners (1.67) looks strong having been seen in 7 of the last 10 away games against similar opponents.

Newcastle v West Brom - The Full Time Draw (3.60) looks worth a look, featuring in 9 of the 20 games these two sides have played against similar opposition. Over 2.5 Goals (1.87) looks solid enough, having been seen in 13 of those 20 games. Both Teams to Score (1.67) is a short but healthy price, featuring in 16 of the 20 games. Total Goals 2-3 (1.85) looks another to be considered, with this range featuring 14 times in the 20 games.

Chelsea v Manchester United - The Half Time Draw (2.38) looks a good start point, these big games can start cagey and this has been the outcome in 9 of the 17 games these two sides have played against similar opponents. Chelsea the Home side to win (2.50) looking solid value, the Home side winning 10 of those 17 games. Under 2.5 Goals (2.26) looks decent value having also been seen in 10 of the 17 games. For a longer odds bet the Home Clean Sheet (3.91), looks good value with 9 in the 17 games. Which leads us to the No on Both Teams to Score (2.55), which has been seen in 10 of the 17 games. The Home Side to Score the First Goal (1.91) looks a good option, happening 11 times in the 17 games, The Home Side to Score the Last Goal (1.91) also looks solid featuring in 12 of the 17 games. The Second Half Most Goals (2.10) looks a good bet seen in 11 of the 17 games.

BetsLayer Premier League Betting Value October 27th

BetsLayer Value Highlights and Selections

Aston Villa v Norwich - Some decent value about the home side here, Aston Villa (2.02), Norwich having lost 8 of the last 9 away against similar opposition. If you fancy slightly longer odds the home/home (3.19) is worth a look having been the outcome in 6 of Norwich's last 10 away against similar level opponents. No on Both Teams to Score (2.25) looks strong having been seen in 10 of the 18 games featuring these sides against similar opposition. The away side to have the Most Booking points (2.00) looks good, happening 11 times in those 18 games. The away side to have the Most Corners (3.80) looks a great shout with Norwich winning in 5 of the last 10 away against similar opponents, 9 out of 18 overall for these two sides, so true odds of evens. First Half Over 1.5 Goals (2.75) looks worth a look, delivering in 9 of the 18 games and in contrast the Second Half Under 1.5 (1.8) looks the choice occurring 14 times in the 18 games. This points to the First Half to be the Highest scoring (3.25), great value when featuring in 9 of the 18 games.

Reading v Fulham - Fulham have been leading at Half Time (3.20) in 5 of the last 10 away games against similar opponents. Under 2.5 goals (2.05) looks solid, having been the outcome in 8 of the 12 games featuring these two sides against similar level opponents. No on Both Teams to score (2.39) again looks value having been seen in 7 of the 12 games. Total goals 2-3 (1.85), looks decent enough, seen in 8 of the 12 games.

Stoke v Sunderland - Total Home Goals Over 1.5 (2.38), looks about the pick for this game having been the outcome in 10 of the 18 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition.

Wigan v West Ham - The Draw (3.65) looks about the only option if looking for value on this game, seen in 7 of the 19 games featuring these two sides against similar opponents.

Arsenal v QPR - Home / Home (1.93) looks good value, having been seen in 9 of the 14 games featuring these two sides in games against similar level opponents. Arsenal to win the Second Half (1.75) looks very solid having been seen in 10 from 14 games overall. For a longer odds bet Arsenal to win both Halves (3.25) seen in 7 of the 14 games overall.

Manchester City v Swansea - Some value about Manchester City (1.25), but perhaps a little short unless you are a big hitter. The Home side to be leading at Half time (1.61) looks good value having been seen in 12 of the 14 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Home / Home (1.67) looks similar  also seen in 12 of the 14 games. Manchester City are likely to be winning by Half Time and if this happens its likely to be 1-0 (3.50) or 2-0 (6.00) both seen 6 times in the 14 games and excellent value with the Dutch bet working out at (2.2). Although Manchester City have been conceding of late, the value points at the Home Clean Sheet (1.99) seen in 10 of the 14 games and No on Both Teams to Score (1.91) also in 10 of the 14 games. Manchester City to score both halves (1.83) looks very solid and they have achieved this 10 times in the last 10 at home against similar opposition. Manchester City to win both halves (2.50) looks good having been seen 9 times in the 14 games.
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BetsLayer Premier League Betting Value Oct 21st

BetsLayer Value Highlights and Selections

Sunderland v Newcastle - There is some value about the home side Sunderland (2.62), having won 5 from the last 10 at home against similar opponents, 9 from 18 games overall for these two sides. No on Both Teams to Score (2.12) looks strong being the outcome in 12 of the 18 games. The Away side to have the Most Corners (3.40) looks a good longer odds option, having been seen in 6 of Newcastle's last 10 away against similar opposition, 9 from 18 games overall.

QPR v Everton - Half time Draw (2.38) looks a good value start with 6 in the last 10 Everton away games against similar opponents, 8 from 13 games overall for these two sides. For a longer odds shout the Full Time Draw (3.53) holds some healthy value and again has been the outcome in 6 of the last 10 Everton away games against similar opponents, 7 from the 13 games overall. Under 2.5 Goals (2.04) is a stand out bet, having been seen in 10 of the 13 games. The Away side to have the Most Booking Points (2.62) looks another stand out bet, having been seen in 8 of the 13 games and in 7 of Everton's last 10 away against similar opposition. The Second Half Result Draw (2.62) looks just as solid having also been seen in 8 from the 13 games.

BetsLayer Premier League Betting Value Oct 20th

BetsLayer Value Highlights and Selections

Spurs v Chelsea - There is some reasonable value about Spurs here at (2.70) with Chelsea losing 6 of the last 10 against similar opponents, perhaps the best bet though is to Lay Chelsea at (2.92) with the away team winners only 3 times in the 17 games featuring these two sides against similar opponents. Second half to be Under 1.5 goals (1.91) looks solid after featuring in 11 of the 17 games.

West Brom v Manchester City - The Half Time Draw (2.45) looks a strong option with 7 of the last 10 Manchester City away games against similar opponents being level at the break, 12 from 18 overall featuring games between these two sides against similar opposition. The Away side to have the Most Corners (1.78) looks good with 8 from the last 10 for Manchester City against similar sides, with 12 from 18 overall. Second half to be Under 1.5 goals (1.83) again looks an option after featuring in 12 of the 18 games

West Ham v Southampton - No Value Found

Fulham v Aston Villa - Some decent value about the Home side to win the Second Half (2.20), this has occurred in 13 of the 20 games featuring these two sides against similar opponents. 

Liverpool v Reading - Another tough game to find value, but 8 of Liverpool's last 10 home games have seen Under 1.5 Goals in the Second Half (1.91) looks reasonable.

Manchester United v Stoke - There is some decent value about the Home side, although at (1.30) it might be one for the big hitters. Under 2.5 goals (2.40) could seem an unusual option for a Manchester United home game against this level of side, but under 3 goals has been seen in 6 of the last 10. Home Clean Sheet (1.95) looks another good bet, with 13 for the Home side in the last 18 featuring these two sides against similar opponents. An alternative is No on both teams to score (1.83) also seen in 13 of the 18 games and giving you the extra safety on the unlikely 0-0 or 0-1, but United not scoring hasn't happened in the 18 games.

Swansea v Wigan - Some value in the draw (3.56) for a longer odds option, but no real value found

Norwich v Arsenal - Some value in Arsenal's price (1.59), Over 2.5 goals (1.63) looks very strong having featured in all the last 10 Arsenal away games against similar opponents, 12 out of 13 overall with both sides.   Over 3.5 goals (2.53) could also tempt having been seen in 7 of the 13 games. The Away side to score both Halves (2.30) looks a very good option having been seen in 10 of the 13 games. Under 10.5 corners (2.5) is of interest if you fancy a different angle, seen in 8 of the 13 games.

UFC 153 Betting Value

Preamble: the first blog for UFC 152 brought a huge win, with two out of three correct in both winner and method, and the other one had the winner right. I’ve narrowed the bets down for this weeks UFC 153 in Brazil to a few options in each case and then picked the most likely and value outcome, and after the previous success I’ve also discussed more fights. It’s a tall order to live up to but here goes…

Anderson Silva v Stephan Bonnar

The most one-sided odds in UFC history (with Silva 1/12 to win) makes for some interesting analysis and despite first impressions there is some value. Yes, Silva is widely recognized as the best pound for pound fighter ever, but he is going up a weight to 205, at short notice against someone who has never been stopped (apart from on cuts). Bonnar could win as the blueprint for defeating Silva is well known: close the distance, take him down and top control the way to a decision, and with Bonnar’s experience and size he could have a shot at this. Bonnar to win by decision is a huge 24/1 with Sporting bet and in a two horse race could be the win of the century. But Silva will be well aware of this strategy too and should control the distance and catch Bonnar with shots coming in. The tempting longer value is Bonnar decision, but the outcome will probably be Silva KO at 8/13 with Paddy Power

Nogueira v Herman

This is an upset in the making. I’ve loved Nogueira since the first time I saw him years ago fighting the now laughable Bob Sapp, but there’s a lot of miles on his clock. Factor in a recent arm break possibly affecting his power right hand and a short notice fight affecting his cardio and this could be Herman’s night. That being said Herman has been KO’d in his last two fights against good opposition and is in Nogueira’s back yard, so for Nogueira fans a submission victory at 6/5 Paddy Power is a decent bet. For this one I’m sticking my neck out and going for the underdog though, as these odds seem a tad generous, Herman has quite a high striking rate and his more rounded strikes should wear down Nogueira as he avoids the Brazilian’s legendary ground game, eventually letting cardio do the rest and a Herman KO at 11/4 Sky Bet is too long odds to ignore. Whatever happens given how easy these fighters get hit and the short notice fight this won’t go the distance, so a bet on the fight not going the distance (2/9 with Paddy Power) offers probably the most secure chance of winning.

Fabio Maldonado v Glover Teixeira

This is an interesting match up that offers perhaps the clearest bet of the night. Maldonado is an ex-boxer and Teixeira is a more rounded but extremely heavy-handed slugger. This one either stays standing and Teixeira wins the battle of the chins or Teixeira knocks him down and finishes him on the ground. The issue is what happens when Teixeira knocks him down, will he KO him or submit him on the floor? It’s difficult to call, so maybe a straight Teixeira win at 2/7 Paddy Power is the safest option.

Davis v Prado

This is a rematch of a fight that stopped very early in a no contest due to an eye poke, but we still learned a little about how it may pan out. Davis is an ex US collegiate wrestler and Prado a more rounded striker and jiu-jitsu man. In the first fight Prado caught Davis and had him a little worried backpedalling, which is when he accidentally pawed his opponents eye when trying to keep the distance. Davis learns his lesson, doesn’t exchange and uses his vastly superior wrestling to take him down to a decision victory. Davis Decision Best odds are 21/10 with Ladbrokes.

Jon Fitch v Erick Silva

This is a great match up. Probably the best ‘take down wrestler and decision grinder’ in MMA (Fitch) up against the explosive and lighting fast striker Silva. Its tempting to go for the Fitch decision at 7/4 Ladbrokes as he’s the underdog and this offers his only realistic route to success, but Silva is the real deal and I’ve had him marked as a future champ since his debut. It’s not a straight-forward call, but I think Silva by KO (3/1) Paddy Power is the most likely outcome.

BetsLayer Premier League Betting Value Oct 7th

BetsLayer Value Highlights

After all the goals yesterday and every game being Over 2.5 Goals, today's value seems to be the backlash.

Southampton v Fulham 

Fulham to be leading at Half Time (3.50) holds some solid value having been the outcome in 6 of the 11 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Under 2.5 goals (2.20) also looks a good option having been seen in 8 of the 11 games. Backed up by the value in the Second Half Under 1.5 goals (1.91) and as an alternative The Total game goals 2-3 (1.90) both featured in 8 of the 11 games.

Spurs v Aston Villa 

Spurs to be leading at Half Time (2.05) looks a good option with the Home side leading at the break in 12 of the 18 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Under 2.5 goals (2.30) also looks an option having been seen in 10 of the 18 games. Second Half Under 1.5 goals (1.91) is strong and featured in 12 of the 18 games.

Liverpool v Stoke

Under 2.5 goals (1.98) again holds some solid value having been the outcome in 13 of the 18 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition.

Newcastle v Manchester United

Under 2.5 goals (2.28) yet again holds some solid value having been the outcome in 10 of the 17 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. No on Both Teams To Score (2.43) also looks strong value having been seen in 11 of the 17 games

BetsLayer Premier League Betting Value Oct 6th

BetsLayer Value Highlights 

Swansea v Reading

Some decent value about Swansea to win the first half (2.80), with the home win coming in 5 of the last 7 featuring these two sides against similar opposition. The Full Time result as a Draw (3.65) holds some solid interest with Swansea's recent form and the fact that the draw has been seen in 3 of the 7 games. The Home Clean sheet also looks value (2.89) having been seen in 3 of the last 6 Swansea home games against similar opponents.

Chelsea v Norwich

The Over 2.5 goals (1.75) holds some decent value having featured in 11 of the last 13 games featuring these two sides against similar opponents. Both Teams To Score (2.10) holds some good value having been the outcome in 9 of the 13 games. The Away side to have the Most Booking Points (2.16) looks great value having been seen in 10 of the 13 games. Second Half Over 1.5 (1.80) looks an option after being seen in 11 of the 13 games.

West Brom v QPR

West Brom to win the first half (2.75) looks a healthy price as this has been the outcome in 8 of the last 16 games featuring these two sides against similar opposition. Over 2.5 goals (1.89) seems a solid bet having been seen in 11 of the 16 games, Over 3.5 (3.25) also holds interest and value featuring in 7 of those games. Both Teams To Score (1.80) looks an alternative to the above having been the outcome in 11 of the 16 games. West Brom to Score First (1.75) looks strong having been seen in 13 of the 16 games.

Wigan v Everton

The Half Time Draw (2.20) looks a good start point in our search for value having been seen in 11 of the last 18 games featuring these two sides against similar opponents. The Full Time Draw (3.55) also looks great having been the outcome in 10 of the 18 games. Under 2.5 goals (1.93) looks a good option having been seen in 12 of the 18 games. The Away side to have the Most Booking Points (2.25) looks good value having been seen in 11 of the 18 games

West Ham v Arsenal

Arsenal look very impressive this season and will be keen to bounce back from the defeat against Chelsea, to be leading at Half Time (2.65) holds value with the Away side winning at the break in 9 of the last 18 games featuring these two sides against similar opponents. Arsenal to be winning at Full Time (2.08) holds great value having been the outcome in 12 of the 18 games. Over 2.5 goals (1.84) looks a great option here having been the outcome in 16 of the 18 games. Both Teams To Score (1.73) also looks value having been seen in 13 of the 18 games. Another couple of decent Arsenal bets, To Win the Second Half (2.45) and To Score Each Half (3.00) Away side delivering in 12 of the 18 games. Finally Under 10.5 corners (2.62) looks a great bet having been seen in 13 of the 18 games.

Manchester City v Sunderland Betting Value

BetsLayer Value Highlights

Manchester City v Sunderland 

Manchester City to be leading at Half Time (1.73) looks short but value, the home side having led in 13 of the 18 games featuring these two sides against similar opponents. The Home / Home result (1.83) also holds value having been seen in 12 of the 18 games. The Home Clean Sheet (1.93) also looks good having been the outcome in 13 of the 18 games, which also leads us to No Both Teams To Score (1.84) seen in 14 of the 18 games. Manchester City to Score Both Halves (1.95) looks strong having been seen in 8 of the last 9 home games against similar opponents. Second Half Over 1.5 goals (2.00) is also strong with a winner 12 in the last 18 games.