Premier League Betting Value Analysis (February 12th)

WOLVES v WEST BROM (Sky Sports 1 13.30)

Stats Analysis

The ratings are showing that Wolves are short to win this game. Wolves can be backed at (2.40) which is definitely not value. 

There is a strong draw bias to this game and the draw can be backed at (3.30), which is priced about right, but should be considered in a game where it is difficult to pick a winner.

West Brom have got some good results away from home this season and are priced at (3.10) and this looks to be good value. With the game having such a strong draw bias it makes sense to keep this on side and West Brom can be backed +0 goals (2.20) 

A for goals, there has been 3 or more in 12 of the last 15 Wolves home games and in 7 of their last 10 home games to similar opposition plus also in 11 of West Brom's last 15 away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.91) which looks a great price. Both Teams to score has been seen in 11 of both sides last 15 home and away games and also in 7 from the last 10 Wolves games against similar opponents and in 8 of the last 10 West Brom away against similar opposition. Both Teams to Score is available at (1.70) and looks a solid option.

Looking at the rated form against similar opponents there is a trend for first half goals, with 2 or more featuring in 6 of the last 10 Wolves games at home and also in 5 of the last 10 West Brom away. Over 1.5 goals to be scored in the 1st half is priced at very healthy looking (3.00).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 1.5 goals in the 1st half (3.00)

ASTON VILLA v MANCHESTER CITY (Sky Sports 1 16:00)

Stats Analysis

Aston Villa can be backed at (5.50) and this offers no value, they have though only lost 4 of their last 10 home games to similar opposition and if you do fancy them to do well then backing them on the Asian Handicap +0.75 goals at (1.99) looks an option. This means should Aston Villa lose by 1 goal then you only lose half of your stake. The draw can be backed at (3.75) and whilst priced about right it should be considered, especially given City's recent away struggles and with 2 draws in the last 3 away against similar opponents.

Manchester City must be expected to win this game, especially given the fact that their neighbours moved above them yesterday and in truth there is good value in their price of (1.73). If you do fancy Manchester City to win then I expect this to be a tough game and City have struggled to score goals lately away from the City of Manchester Stadium. Dutching Manchester City to win by 1 or 2 goals makes sense as all 5 of Aston Villa's last 5 home defeats to similar opponents have been by this margin, has have all 5 of the last 5 Manchester City away wins against similar opponents. Dutching the Manchester City win by 1 or 2 goals at (2.10) looks a strong option.

As for goals there is a definite bias to 2 or less and this has been seen in 10 of Aston Villa's last 15 home games and in Manchester City's 5 of the last 6 away and 6 of the last 10 away to similar opponents including their last 3. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.95). Both Teams to Score looks mixed and is maybe best left alone, it has featured in 50% of the two sides games against similar opponents, but at (1.86) looks a price to avoid.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutch Manchester City to win by 1 or 2 goals at (2.10)