WIGAN v LIVERPOOL (Tues 20.00 Sky Sports 1)
Stats Analysis
Wigan have won just once (against QPR) at home all season. However, they have drawn two of their last three at the DW Stadium including the last gasp 1-1 draw against Chelsea.Wigan have also lost just 7 of the last 22 home games against top half sides.Wigan can be backed at (7.50) and this offers some decent value. If you do fancy Wigan to do well then they can be backed on the Asian Handicap +1 goal at (2.02) and this would certainly be your best option and this offers sound value.
The draw can be backed at (4.00) and this offers some reasonable value given how both sides have performed against similar opposition and Wigan's recent form.
Liverpool are looking for a third successive league win for the first time this season. The ratings are suggesting that there is no real value in backing Liverpool at their current price of (1.57) and in truth their record away to low rated sides is not that great and it reads W3 D3 L4. Liverpool can be backed on the Asian Handicap -1 goal at (1.91) and this makes sense as Wigan have lost 3 of their 4 home defeats by 2 goals or more. Another option is backing Liverpool to win by the HT/FT result as all 4 of Wigan's home defeats this season have come via this result and Liverpool can be backed at (2.40).
As for goals there are some pretty mixed stats and it makes sense to avoid the Over / Under 2.5 goal market. When looking at Both teams to score then both sides have scored in 4 of Wigan's last 6 at home similar rated sides and in 5 of Liverpool's last 8 away to low rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at (2.10) and this offers some value at this price.
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Wigan on the Asian Handicap +1 goal at (2.02)
QPR v SUNDERLAND
Stats Analysis
QPR have lost five of their last seven Premier League matches (W1, D1, L5). They have won just one of their eight home league matches this season and have earned more points away than at home. They are available at (2.8) which offers value to the ratings but little attraction.
Sunderland have won only one of their past seven Premier League matches. The Black Cats have won only once away from home this season and have lost their last three away matches, they are priced at (2.8) and this offers little value. The draw at (3.3) offers no real value even though its a good possibility.
6 of the last 8 of QPR’s home games have had -2.5 goals as have 5 of the last 8 of Sunderland’s away fixtures this season (6 of the last 10 against low rated sides). Under 2.5 goals is available at (1.8) and offers some value in a game with very little on show.
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Under 2.5 goals (1.8)
ASTON VILLA v ARSENAL
Stats Analysis
Aston Villa have lost just 4 of the 15 home matches against top rated sides whereas Arsenal have won just 3 of the last 8 away fixtures (7 of the last 18 against similar rated sides). Alex McLeish's side have however won only two of their last nine matches and they have lost three of their last four home league matches. They available at (5.00) and this offers value, but it might be wise to keep the draw onside, Aston Villa can be backed (2.10) on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals. The draw offers good value and is priced at (3.75)
Arsenal's defeat to Manchester City on Sunday was their first league loss in nine games. It was also the first time the Gunners had failed to score in a league game since the second match of the season. Arsenal to win are (1.8) and this price offers little value to the ratings.
Aston Villa have failed to score in four of their past five league games and in truth the stats are mixed where goals are concerned. Both teams have scored in 12 of the last 15 Arsenal away matches and in 9 of the last 10 away at similar rated sides. Both teams to score is available at (1.8) and offers decent value if you feel Aston Villa can improve their recent poor scoring form. Over 2.5 goals is very similar having been seen 13 of the last 15 Arsenal away games and in 9 of the last 10 against similar rated sides. Over 2.5 is available at (1.9) and offers value.
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Over 2.5 goals (1.9)
EVERTON v SWANSEA
Stats Analysis
Everton have won just 2 of the 8 home matches this season while Swansea have lost only 3 of 10 league fixtures and just 1 of their 4 away games.The Everton price (1.62) looks short.
The draw can be backed at (3.8) and this offers good value in a game with a strong draw bias.
Swansea have the worst away record in the top flight, although their three draws on the road have all come in the last four matches. Swansea are available at (6.25) and although some value it is probably wise to keep the draw on side and back on the Asian Handicap +1.0 at (1.9) = stake returned if Everton win by a single goal.
As for goals there appears to be little value in the Over/Under markets, but Under 2.5 has been seen in 9 of the last 15 Everton home games and is priced (1.9). Everton have not kept a clean sheet in any of their 11 home games in all competitions this season. Both teams have scored in 7 of the last 15 Everton home games and in 4 from the last 8 Swansea away games and is available at (2.10) which offers value.
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Both teams to score (2.10)
MAN CITY v STOKE
Stas Analysis
Manchester City have a 100% home record in this season's Premier League, winning all eight games and conceding just four goals. At (1.25) though there is no value in their current price. There are a couple of options when looking to get value about Manchester City winning this game. The Manchester City clean is priced at (1.83) win to nil (2.10) (9 from last 14 home wins) and the Man City W/W double result has featured in 8 of the last 10 home matches against similar rated teams while Stoke have had L/L double results in 8 out of 8 away matches against top rated teams and so all these offer value to the ratings. Manchester City HT/FT (1.75)
Stoke are on a club record run of four consecutive Premier League wins but even at (15.0) there is no value in the price, the draw at (6.5) is far better value, but really there can't be much argument for it.
As for goals there are some mixed stats and there is very little value available, Under 2.5 goals is avialable at (2.60) and this offers some value, but with Manchester City's scoring form at home it is not really advised.
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Manchester City to win to nil (2.10)
FULHAM v MANCHESTER UNITED
Stats Analysis
After being undefeated in their first seven visits to Fulham in the Premier League, Manchester United have not won any of their last three trips to Craven Cottage. They have though won six of their eight away matches so far this season and at this stage last year they had only won one of their eight away matches. Fulham have won just 4 of the16 games under Martin Jol while Manchester United have won 4 of 4 away fixtures and 4 of the last 4 away matches against similar rated opposition. Manchester United price (1.85) is right to the ratings. If you do fancy Manchester United to win then going for them by dutching 1 or 2 goals makes sense as this has been seen in 6 of the last 8 away victories (2.05)
There is strong value in the draw at (3.8)
Fulham are priced at (5.5) and this is priced about right. If you do fancy Fulham it makes sense to keep the draw on side and to back on the Asian Handicap +0.5 at (2.14)
As for goals there are again some mixed stats and there appears little value in the Over/Under and Both teams to score markets.
Betslayer Value Highlight
The draw (3.8)
NEWCASTLE v WEST BROM
Stats Analysis
Newcastle are winless in five games (D2, L3) but Alan Pardew's side are unbeaten against opponents in the bottom half of the table (W6, D2), the best record of any club outside the current top three. The price of (1.91) is very much inline with the ratings. If you do fancy Newcastle then there is value on the HT/FT at (3.0), this has featured in 4 of Newcastle's last 6 home wins.
West Brom have lost only one of their last five away matches, the price is as per the ratings (3.50) and with the draw available at (3.6). Newcastle have drawn 7 from the last 15 home games so must be a strong consideration.
Newcastle have had +2.5 goals in 6 of the last 9 home matches against similar rated teams as have WBA in 11 of the last 14 away games under Roy Hodgson (6 of the last 7 against similar rated sides). Over 2.5 goals (1.85)
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Over 2.5 goals (1.85)
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