Saturday 10 December 2011

Premier League Betting Value Analysis (December 11th)


Sunderland v Blackburn (Sunday 13.30pm Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Sunderland have won only two of their last 15 home games and little separates these clubs in the Premier League standings. It is hard to get very excited about odds-on that Sunderland can see off an underrated Blackburn. The negativity surrounding Rovers has led many to write them off but some recent performances have been encouraging, so Martin O’Neill’s reign could start difficultly. However the ratings show there is some small value in backing Sunderland to win this game. Sunderland can be backed at (1.91)

The draw can be backed at (3.50) and although this is about right, given the form of both sides this certainly should not be fully discounted

Blackburn can be backed at (4.50) and this offers no real value. If you do fancy Blackburn to do well then you are certainly best keeping the draw on side and Blackburn can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at (2.05)

As for Goals there have been +2.5 goals in 5 of the last 6 Sunderland home matches (9 of 14 against similar rated sides) and in 5 of the last 7 Blackburn away games (5 of 7 against similar rated sides). Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.91). Both teams to score also looks a strong option with both teams scoring in 10 of  Sunderland's last 15 home games and in all of Blackburn's last 10 away games to similar rated sides (12 of the last 15 away games). Both teams to score can be backed at (1.73)

Late goals could feature, there has been a goal after 73 minutes in 7 of Sunderland's last 10 home games to similar rated sides and in 7 of Blackburn's last 10 away to similar rated sides. The last goal of the game to come after 73 minutes can be backed at (1.91)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals (1.91)


Stoke v Tottenham  (Sunday 16.00pm Sky Sports 1) 

Stats Analysis

Tottenham are beating everything put before them at the moment and Stoke may struggle to halt their momentum. The Potters have been uncharacteristically poor at home recently and should be outclassed by a Spurs outfit who are currently enjoying a great run. Spurs have won 10 of their last 11 league matches and 5 from the last 6 away. The ratings highlight that there may be some value in backing Spurs to win this game. Spurs can be backed at (2.15)

The draw can be backed at (3.50) and according to the ratings this does not offer much value, it does though have to be taken into consideration.

Stoke can be backed at (3.75) and the ratings don't show much value here, If you do fancy Stoke to do well then you are best keeping the draw on side and Stoke can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.25 goals (2.10)

As for goals there are mixed stats with both of the sides. However when looking at Spurs 8 of their last 10 away games to similar rated sides have featured 3 or more goals.  Over 2.5 goals have also been seen in 7 of Stokes last 14 home matches including their last 3 home games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.95). A stronger option is Both teams to score and this has been seen in 8 of Stoke's last 14 home games and 9 of Spurs last 10 away games to similar rated sides (5 from the last 5 away games generally). Both teams to score can be backed at (1.73)

Betslayer Trade Zone

Stoke have lost 5 of the last 10 home games when conceding before HT while Spurs have won 10 of 11 league fixtures and have scored before HT in all 10 games

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Spurs to win (2.15)

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