Newcastle v Chelsea (12.45 Saturday Sky Sports 2)
Stats Analysis
Newcastle are having a tremendous season and it’s a measure of how far they have come that they are above Chelsea in the table. Newcastle are priced at (4.33) and this price offers an element of value. However if you do fancy Newcastle to do well then it makes sense to keep the draw on your side and Newcastle can be backed +0.5 goals on the Asian Handicap at better than evens (2.00).
There is a strong draw bias to the game and the draw can be backed at (3.5)
Andre Villas Boas is still under a great deal of pressure despite last Saturdays comfortable win over Wolves. It would be a brave man that backs the visitors at odds on or near, given that they have won only 3 from 6 away games. Chelsea are priced at (2.00) or slightly more on the exchanges, but so far have won only 2 from 5 against teams from the top half and with Newcastle having lost only 1 from 5 against top rated sides it offers little value or attraction.
As for goals there is a small bias to 3 or more. Over 2.5 goals have been seen in 10 of Newcastle’s last 15 home games and in 8 of Chelsea’s last 15 away games. Over 2.5 goals looks an viable option (1.95). Both teams to score also seems reasonable and both teams have scored in 11 of Newcastle’s last 15 home games and in 8 of Chelsea’s last 15 away games (1.80). There have been 2 or more goals scored in the 1st half in 3 of Newcastle’s last 5 at home to top rated sides and in 4 of Chelsea’s last 10 away to similar rated sides. Over 1.5 goals in the 1st half can be backed at (3.00) which offers good value given the recent stats.
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The Draw (3.5)
Man City v Norwich
Stats Analysis
QPR gave Manchester City one of their toughest games in the recent 2-3 result at Loftus Road but its difficult to imagine last seasons Championship runners up Norwich playing to a similar standard at Eastlands. The ratings however are suggesting there is no real value in Manchester City’s current price (1.20). Manchester City do however have a very impressive record at home to low rated sides W9 D1 L0 and have won the last 14 domestic home games. Manchester City have also won 6 of their last 10 home games to nil (2.00)
The draw is priced at (7.50) and this offers value but not much appeal.
Norwich are priced at (17.00) and again this price offers value and if you do fancy Norwich to do well they can be backed at (1.92) receiving 2 goals on the Asian Handicap and this looks an interesting option.
As for goals there is little value in the Over 2.5 market, the best option might be to take the No on both teams to score as Manchester City have won 9 of their last 12 victories to nil (1.85). Another option is First half Under 1.5 goals this has been seen in 8 of Manchester City’s last 10 home games to low rated sides and in 3 of Norwich’s opening 6 away games.
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Manchester City to win to nil (Evens)
QPR v West Brom
Stats Analysis
There is very little between these two sides, but QPR are perhaps playing the better football. QPR can be backed at (2.30) and is priced about right.
There is strong draw bias to this game and the draw can be backed at (3.40) and in a game where its difficult to pick a winner this might be a reasonable option.
West Brom can be backed at (3.30) and is priced just about right
As for goals there have been 3 or more goals in 12 of West Brom’s last 15 away games and in 5 of their last 7 away to fellow low rated sides. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00). Both teams to score looks of interest mainly down to West brom having had this 9 times in their last 15 away games + 4 from 7 against fellow low rated sides with QPR only failing to find the net 3 times in the last 15 at home, Both teams to score (1.83)
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Over 2.5 goals Evens (2.00)
Wigan v Arsenal
Stats Analysis
Is it possible to make a case for Wigan being able to beat Arsenal at the DW stadium? The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Arsenal to win this game (1.57). The best option on improving the price is probably to back Arsenal on the Asian Handicap -1 goal and this pays (2.06) and this would have been covered in 7 of their last 10 away victories to low rated sides.
The draw can be backed at (4.10) and this offers value as Wigan have drawn 4 of their last 10 at home to top/middle rated sides.
Wigan are priced at (6.50) and this price offers some value or you could back them in the Draw No Bet market at (5.00). However if you do fancy Wigan it might make more sense to Lay Arsenal on the exchanges (1.6)
As for goals then you should see some and Over 2.5 is priced (1.70) and even at this price it offers value. There has been 3 or more goals in 14 of Arsenal’s last 15 away games and in 6 of Wigan’s last 10 home matches to top/middle rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.73) and again Both teams have scored in 12 of Arsenal’s last 15 away games and in 6 of Wigan’s last 10 home games to top/middle rated sides.
Finally the stats for both sides suggest early and late goals. There has been a goal scored before 27 minutes in 10 of Wigan’s last 15 home games and in 5 of their last 10 at home to top/middle rated sides. Arsenal have scored before 27 minutes in 9 of their last 15 away games and in 6 of their last 10 away to low rated sides. The first goal to be scored before 27 minutes can be backed at (1.91). There has been a goal scored after 75 minutes in 10 of Wigan’s last 15 home games and in 7 of their last 10 at home to top/middle rated sides. Arsenal have scored after 75 minutes in 11 of their last 15 away games and in 8 of their last 10 away to low rated sides. The last goal to be scored after 75 minutes can be backed at (1.91)
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Arsenal on the Asian Handicap -1 goal (2.06)
Everton v Stoke
Stats Analysis
Stoke are having a tough time of it lately despite their victory over Blackburn last weekend they could struggle here. The demands of playing in Europe is really testing them and their record after Europa league games reads 1-2-4. The ratings are suggesting that there is good value in backing Everton to win here at (1.80).
The Draw (3.6) offers little value, Stoke can be backed at (5.75) and this again offers no real value and as above Stoke have struggled after their Europa exploits. If you do fancy Stoke to do well then your best option is to back them +0.75 goals on the Asian Handicap at (1.94) this means you only lose half your stake if Stoke lose by the single goal.
As for goals the general trend is towards 2 or less and this has been seen in 7 of Everton’s last 10 home games to similar rated sides and in 6 of Stoke’s last 10 away to similar rated sides. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.85). There has been a goal scored after 75 minutes in only 3 of Everton’s last 10 home games to similar rated sides and in 5 of Stoke’s last 10 away to similar rated sides. The last goal of the game to be scored before 75 minutes can be backed at Evens (2.00).
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Everton to win (1.8)
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The last goal of the game to be scored before 75 minutes can be backed at Evens (2.00). Look to back No Next goal at 70 mins and use time decay to back and lay as the action unfolds.
Spurs v Bolton
Stats Analysis
The mood at Tottenham has been transformed since heavy early season losses to the Manchester clubs and the feel good factor should return here despite the ‘reserve’ side losing in the Europa league in midweek. Even at (1.33) to win this game the ratings are suggesting Spurs are value to win this game. Dutching the Spurs win by 1 or 2 goals looks very strong as 7 of their last 8 victories have come via this margin as have 10 of Bolton’s last 12 defeats (2.04). Spurs have won 3 of the last 5 leading at half time and full time the Spurs/Spurs double result can be backed at (1.9)
The draw can be backed at (5.50), but given Bolton’s recent form and the ratings offers little value or interest.
Bolton can be backed at (12.00) and even at this price offers not much value. If you do fancy Bolton to do well then you are best looking at the Asian Handicap +1.75 goals (1.83). This means should Bolton lose by 2 goals then you will receive half of your stake back. Bolton have lost by 2 or more goals in only 6 of their last 15 away defeats.
As for goals Over 2.5 goals priced at 1/2 (1.50) makes little appeal, however both teams to score certainly looks a reasonable option as both teams have scored in 6 of Bolton’s last 8 away games to top/middle rated sides and in 7 of Spurs last 10 home games to low/middle rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at 10/11 (1.91)
Finally there is value in backing the 2nd half to be the highest scoring and this has been seen in 5 of Bolton’s last 7 away to top/middle rated sides and in 7 of Spurs last 10 home games to similar rated sides . The 2nd half to be the highest scoring can be backed at 11/10 (2.10)
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The 2nd half to be the highest scoring can be backed at 11/10 (2.10)
Blackburn v Swansea
Stats Analysis
Although Swansea have made a solid start to their Premier League campaign they’re yet to win away, but even accounting for that it would be a brave man that backs Blackburn in their current form. The ratings are suggesting that there isn’t much value in Blackburn’s price although they do have a decent home record against low rated sides which reads W6 D3 L1. Blackburn can be backed at (2.25).
There is a strong draw bias to this game and the draw can be backed at (3.50)
Swansea can be backed at (3.60) and this offers some value, as usual if you fancy Swansea it could be best to keep the draw on your side and at (1.80) Swansea +0.5 goals on the Asian Handicaps offers good value.
As for goals there is a bias to 3 goals or more. There has been 3 or more goals scored in 6 of Blackburn’s last 10 home games to low rated sides and 4 of Swansea’s opening 6 away games have also seen 3 or more goals. Over 2.5 goals (1.91). Both teams to score also offers some interest as Blackburn have found the net in their last 10 home games to low rated sides and they have conceded in each of their 6 home games this season. Both teams to score (1.73)
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The Draw (3.5)
Aston Villa v Man Utd (17.30 Saturday ESPN)
Stats Analysis
It is 16 years since Aston Villa recorded a home league over Manchester United and after that 3-1 triumph at the start of 1995-96 season it famously prompted Alan Hansen to mistakenly declare you can’t win anything with kids. Manchester United have not lost any of the last 15 visits to Villa Park. Aston Villa can be backed at (5.75) and this price offers value. If you do fancy Aston Villa to do well you are certainly best keeping the draw on side and Aston villa can be backed with +0.75 goals on the Asian Handicap (2.02) this means you only lose half of your stake should Manchester United win by the single goal.
There is quite a strong draw bias to this game given both sides recent head to head matches and recent form. The draw can be backed at (3.80) and is a viable option.
The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in Manchester United to win this game. Aston Villa also have a home record where they have lost only 2 of their last 9 home games to top rated sides. Manchester United (1.73). Seeing that Manchester United’s recent away form has seen goals a bit of a rarity then dutching Manchester United to win by 1 or 2 goals would make sense. All 7 of Aston Villa’s last 7 home defeats have been by 2 or less goals. Dutching the Manchester United victory by 1 or 2 goals (2.14)
As for goals there has been 2 or less goals in 10 of Aston Villa’s last 15 home games and 2 or less in 7 of Manchester United’s last 10 away games to middle rated sides (1.91) for Under 2.5 goals looks tempting. Both teams to score seems a reasonable option as both teams have scored in 5 of Aston Villa’s last 9 at home to top rated sides and in 9 of Manchester United’s last 15 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.91)
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Aston Villa +0.75 goals on the Asian Handicap (2.02)
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