Spurs v Aston Villa (8pm Monday Sky Sports 1)
Stats Analysis
Aston Villa maybe in the top half of the Premier League but this flatters them and they face a tough task at inform Spurs. Some of Aston Villa's statistics are alarming, their Shot, Shot on Target and Corner differences (Villa minus opposition) are all in the bottom 3 of the Premier League. The ratings are indicating that there is not much value in Spurs current price and its short enough to give a swerve. They are though in very good form and indeed they have won their last 7 home games against similar rated sides. Spurs can be backed at 4/7 (1.57) If you do fancy Spurs to win this game then dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals makes sense as 7 of their last 8 home victories have come via this margin. Aston Villa are certainly resilient away from home and have only lost 3 in their last 15 away games. Dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals evens (2.00)
The draw is priced at 13/5 (4.25) and this offers value and certainly should not be dismissed given Aston Villa's recent form.
Aston Villa can be backed at 6/1 (7.00) and this offers a small amount of value. However if you do fancy Villa to do well then your best option is to back them on the Asian Handicap +1 goal at 21/20 (2.05).
As for goals we should expect a few, Spurs have an average of 3.6 total goals per game this season and 11 of Aston Villa's last 15 away games have seen 3 goals or more. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 7/10 (1.70) and despite this lowish price this still offers good value.
Both teams to score is also a strong option and again Both teams have scored in 14 of Aston Villa's last 15 away games and also in 7 of Spurs last 10 home games to similar rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at 3/4 (1.75)
BetsLayer Value Highlight
Dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals Evens (2.00) or better
BetsLayer Account
Over 2.5 goals 7/10 (1.70)
Hi
ReplyDeleteGreat Blog
Would appreciate a link exchange
http://layawayforaprofitableday.blogspot.com/
Regards
Neil
Cheers Neil, happy to do a link exchange, love the blog and the fresh approach :-)
ReplyDeleteGood call on Dutching the Spurs victory, I did look at the Over 2.5 goals myself but was (thankfully) put off by the short price. It still should have come in though.
ReplyDeleteYeah it was a funny game in truth, fully expected the overs to deliver and really Adebayor could have landed it on his own. The dutching was also kind of built around the fact the stats indicated that Villa would score (even though it landed without)...something that never really looked likely and Spurs dominated possession. Cheers
ReplyDelete