Norwich v Arsenal (12.45 Saturday Sky Sports 2)
Stats Analysis
Norwich have been playing well at Carrow Road but the Canaries may get their wings clipped here. The ratings are suggesting there is not much value in backing the improving Arsenal but they do have an excellent away record to similar rated sides which reads W7 D2 L1. Arsenal can be backed at 7/10 (1.70) and this looks underpriced.
The draw is priced at 14/5 (3.80) and although this offers some value it offers little appeal considering Arsenal’s recent record at similar sides.
Norwich can be backed at 17/4 (5.25) and this price does offer value
As for goals it looks likely that we will see a few, 14 of Arsenal’s last 15 away games have seen Over 2.5 goals and is still value priced at 4/6 (1.67). Backing Over 3.5 goals also looks to offer value as 4 or more goals have been seen in 6 of Arsenals last 12 away to similar rated sides and 10 of Arsenals last 15 in general. Over 3.5 goals has also been seen in 6 of Norwich’s last 9 home games. Over 3.5 goals can be backed at 7/4 (2.75).
Both teams to score again looks strong as both teams have scored in 13 of Norwich’s last 15 home games and they have yet to keep a clean sheet in the league, also seen in 12 of Arsenal’s last 15 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at 4/6 (1.67)
Arsenal have scored in both halves in 8 of their last 10 away matches to similar rated sides and in 5 of 10 away games generally. This is priced at 11/8 (2.38). Late goals have been a large part of both teams general home and away form and a goal has been seen after 75 minutes in 10 of Norwich’s last 15 home games and in 11 of Arsenals last 15 away games. The last goal of the game to come after 75 minutes can be backed at 10/11 (1.91)
BetsLayer Value Highlight
Stats Analysis
Norwich have been playing well at Carrow Road but the Canaries may get their wings clipped here. The ratings are suggesting there is not much value in backing the improving Arsenal but they do have an excellent away record to similar rated sides which reads W7 D2 L1. Arsenal can be backed at 7/10 (1.70) and this looks underpriced.
The draw is priced at 14/5 (3.80) and although this offers some value it offers little appeal considering Arsenal’s recent record at similar sides.
Norwich can be backed at 17/4 (5.25) and this price does offer value
As for goals it looks likely that we will see a few, 14 of Arsenal’s last 15 away games have seen Over 2.5 goals and is still value priced at 4/6 (1.67). Backing Over 3.5 goals also looks to offer value as 4 or more goals have been seen in 6 of Arsenals last 12 away to similar rated sides and 10 of Arsenals last 15 in general. Over 3.5 goals has also been seen in 6 of Norwich’s last 9 home games. Over 3.5 goals can be backed at 7/4 (2.75).
Both teams to score again looks strong as both teams have scored in 13 of Norwich’s last 15 home games and they have yet to keep a clean sheet in the league, also seen in 12 of Arsenal’s last 15 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at 4/6 (1.67)
Arsenal have scored in both halves in 8 of their last 10 away matches to similar rated sides and in 5 of 10 away games generally. This is priced at 11/8 (2.38). Late goals have been a large part of both teams general home and away form and a goal has been seen after 75 minutes in 10 of Norwich’s last 15 home games and in 11 of Arsenals last 15 away games. The last goal of the game to come after 75 minutes can be backed at 10/11 (1.91)
BetsLayer Value Highlight
Arsenal to score in both halves 11/8 (2.38).
Stoke v QPR
Stats Analysis
Stoke are always a handful at the Britannia Stadium, but QPR could prove difficult to break down here. The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in Stokes current price. They do though have a decent home record winning 8 of their last 14 home games. Stoke are priced at 4/5 (1.80). In an effort to find an alternative with more value 6 of Stokes last 9 home victories have come via the half time/full time result as has all 3 of QPRs 3 losses this season. Stoke can be backed to win via the Half Time / Full Time result at 19/10 (2.90) which seems to offer more value than the home win price.
The draw is priced at 13/5 (3.60) and this looks to offer good value.
QPR are priced at 4/1 (5.00) and this looks to offer value. If you do fancy QPR to do well then you are best keeping the draw on your side and QPR can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at 22/19 (2.16).
As for goals generally we shouldn’t expect many, there have been 2 or less goals in 10 of Stokes last 15 home games and in 9 of QPRs last 15 away games. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at 4/5 (1.80) and although this looks to offer some value its difficult to be confident when both have had heavy defeats in their recent past.
The No on Both teams to score looks a strong option as both teams have scored in only 6 of Stokes last 15 home games and in 4 of QPRs last 15 away games. The No on Both teams to score can be backed at 10/11 (1.91) and this looks very good value given the above. However Stoke have not kept a clean sheet in their last 5 across all competitions.
BetsLayer Value Highlight
No on Both teams to score 10/11 (1.91)
Sunderland v Fulham
Stats Analysis
Fulham were unlucky not to get something out of the 3-1 home defeat to Spurs and if they can reproduce that kind of performance they should be able to get a result here. Sunderland are priced at 13/10 (2.30) to win this game and in truth this offers no real value.
There is a very strong draw bias to the game and the draw can be backed at (3.40). However although the draw is strong here it only offers a little value.
Fulham are priced at 11/5 (3.20) and this looks to offer some value. It must be remembered that Fulhams home form is far stronger than their away form. If you do fancy Fulham to do well then you are best keeping the draw on your side and Fulham can be backed on the Asian Handicap + 0.5 goals at 7/10 (1.70)
In a game where there is very little value stats it could be worth looking at Sunderland to score the 1st goal of the game. When home to similar rated sides Sunderland have scored the 1st goal of the game in 5 of 9 matches and when facing similar rated sides away Fulham have conceded the first goal of the game in 5 of 9 matches. Sunderland can be backed at 5/6 (1.83).
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The Draw (3.4)
Everton v Wolves
Stats Analysis
Games between these two sides have generally been close run affairs. The ratings are suggesting there is very little value in Evertons current price 4/7 (1.57). Also their record at home to similar rated sides is not that strong W4 D4 L2. If you do fancy Everton to win this game then dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals stands out as all 8 of their previous 8 home victories have come via this margin as have 7 of Wolves last 9 away defeats. Dutching the Everton victory by 1 or 2 goals 20/21 (1.96).
There is a bias towards the draw and this can be backed at 3/1 (4.00) and this price offers some value. The last 2 games between these 2 at Everton have also resulted in this outcome.
Alternately Wolves can be backed +1 goal at 5/6 (1.83) and given both teams recent home and away record seems reasonable value.
Both teams to score certainly looks value as both teams have scored in 6 of Everton’s last 10 away to similar rated sides and in 8 of Wolves last 14 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at Evens (2.00).
Everton when playing similar rated sides at home the 1st goal of the game has been scored after the 25 minute in 7 of the last 10 home games and in 6 of Wolves last 10 away games. The first goal of the game to come after 25 minutes can be backed at 10/11 (1.91).
As above there could be a tight start to this game 6 of Everton’s last 10 home games similar rated sides have been level at the break (4 of the last 6) and 5 of Wolves last 10 away games to similar rated sides (3 of the last 4). The half time draw can be backed at 5/4 (2.25).
BetsLayer Value Highlight
Both teams to score Evens (2.00).
Man City v Newcastle
Stats Analysis
Manchester City are now odds on to win the Premier league and have won their last 8 in all competitions playing some fantastic football, especially the mecurial David Silva with 4 goals in the last 11 games. The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Manchester City to win this game at 3/10 (1.30). They can be backed at 9/10 (1.90) to win via the Half time / Full time result and this doesn’t look too bad as 8 of Manchester Citys last 10 victories at home to similar rated sides have come via this result.
The draw is priced at 9/2 (5.50) and offers value if not very much appeal
Finally in a game that Manchester City should win there is very little standout value. However looking at the stats it may be worth backing the last goal of the game to be scored before 76 minutes at 10/11 (1.91). The last goal of the game has been scored before the 76th minute in 8 of Manchester Citys last 10 home games to similar rated sides and in 2 of Newcastles last 4 away games to top rated sides.
BetsLayer Value Highlight
Manchester City HT/FT 9/10 (1.9)
BetsLayer Trade Zone
If the game looks to be suitable i.e City keeping possession in control, use Time Decay trading on the No Goal or alternative market from 76 mins. This could involve multi backs and lays as the game develops.
West Brom v Bolton
Stats Analysis
It should be remembered that its always dangerous to pin too much on one result, but Bolton’s 5-0 victory could be a turning point for their season.
The draw is priced at 13/5 (3.60) and this looks to offer value in what is a difficult game to call.
Bolton are priced at 16/5 (4.20) but have a very poor record away from home. However when it comes to facing similar rated sides away from home the record is not too bad W4 D3 L3. If you do fancy Bolton to do well then you could be best keeping the draw on your side and Bolton can be backed +0.5 goals at 9/10 (1.90). West Brom haven’t beaten Bolton in their last seven meetings.
As for goals we can expect a few there have been Over 2.5 goals seen in 7 of Boltons last 10 away to similar rated sides including the last 6. Although the stats are not as strong for West Brom and indeed only 1 of their home games this season has seen 3 or more goals there have been Over 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 15 home games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 4/5 (1.80).
Both teams to score looks a strong bet as both teams have found the net in 8 of Boltons last 10 away to similar rated sides and in 10 of West Broms last 15 home games. Both teams to score can be backed at 4/6 (1.67) and offers only slight value at this price.
BetsLayer Value Highlight
Bolton +0.5 goals at 9/10 (1.90)
Wigan v Blackburn
Stats Analysis
If ever there was an early season 6-pointer, then this is it. The ratings are suggesting that there is value in Wigans current price. However Blackburn do have a fairly strong record away to similar rated sides. Wigan are priced at 16/11 (2.45) and this price offers some decent value and if you fancy Wigan to win.
The Draw is priced at 12/5 (3.40) and although this does not offer much value it has to be taken into consideration.
Blackburn are priced at 19/10 (2.90) and this price does not really offer that much value.
As for goals there is a bias to 3 or over. It has also been seen in 6 of Blackburns last 8 away games to similar rated sides. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 10/11 (1.91). Both teams to score also looks a strong option as both teams have scored in 9 of Blackburns last 10 away to similar rated sides and in 7 of Wigans last 10 at home to similar rated sides Both teams to score can be backed at a short but value price, especially given the fraility of both defences. 7/10 (1.70).
BetsLayer Value Highlight
Both teams to score 7/10 (1.70).
Swansea v Man United (17.30 Saturday ESPN)
Stats Analysis
They may have been handed a kind opening set of fixtures, but Swansea’s unbeaten home record still deserves respect. The ratings are very much on a par with the odds available and Manchester United are priced at 1/2 (1.50) to win the match. There is mixed info coming from the stats mainly because as mentioned Swansea are unbeaten at home. However Manchester United do have an excellent record away to low rated sides which reads W8 D1 L1. Dutching the Manchester United win by 1 or 2 goals makes sense given Swanseas decent home record as all of Uniteds last 8 away victories to low rated sides have come by the 1 or 2 goal margin 10/11 (1.91).
The draw is priced at 7/2 (4.50) and this offers value and should certainly be considered
Swansea can be backed at 7/1 (8.00) and if you do fancy Swansea to do well then your best option could be to back Swansea on the Asian Handicap +1 goal at Evens (2.00).
As for goals then again there are some mixed stats. However Swansea have only conceded 1 goal at home this season in their opening 5 matches and 6 of Manchester Uniteds last 8 away games have seen 2 goals or less. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at 11/10 (2.10). There is also value in backing both teams to score. Both teams have scored in 7 of Manchester Uniteds last 10 away to similar rated sides and this can be backed at 10/11 (1.91). 2/3 goals looks of interest as 4 of Manchester Uniteds last 7 away to similar rated sides have seen this total as have 4 of Manchester Uniteds last 6 away games. In the case of Swansea this total has been seen twice in their opening 5 home games. Evens (2.00).
Manchester United have been ahead at Half Time in only 3 of their last 10 away games and Swansea have not been behind at the break in any of their last 15 home games. Manchester United can be layed to win the first half Evens (2.00).
BetsLayer Value Highlight
Under 2.5 goals 11/10 (2.10)
BetsLayer Trade Zone
Lay Manchester United to win the first half Evens (2.00)
Chelsea v Liverpool (16.00 Sunday Sky Sports 1)
Stats Analysis
Chelsea and Villa Boas are really trying to change the way they play, going for a high tempo pressing game and this has suffered a few high profile failures. Even so their home form is still impressive and their loss to Arsenal stands alone in the last 12. Chelsea have won 2 of their last 3 victories by the 1 or 2 goal margin and Liverpool have lost 4 of their last 5 away defeats by this margin. Dutching the Chelsea win by 1 or 2 goals 23/20 (2.15).
The draw can be backed at 13/5 (3.60) and this does offer some appeal given both sides recent form and ratings.
As for goals then there's value in backing Over 2.5 goals mainly due to Chelseas recent home form and the fact that they have conceded in every home game this season. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 10/11 (1.91).
The 2nd half to be the highest scoring looks a better option. The 2nd half has been the highest scoring in 7 of Liverpools last 9 away games to top rated sides and in 12 of Chelseas last 16 home games. The second half to be the highest scoring can be backed at 11/10 (2.10) alternatively backing the 1st goal of the game after 25 minutes Evens (2.0) could be strongly considered.
BetsLayer Value Highlight
2nd half to be the highest scoring 11/10 (2.10)
BetsLayer Trade Zone
Under 2.5 goals can be backed at 11/10 (2.10). One way to approach the game is to lay off liability as the game takes shape i.e 50% at 10 mins and then the rest until the 25th minute.
I will update with the Monday night game over the weekend.
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