Full Weekend Premier League Betting Value Analysis (November 26-27th)

Stoke v Blackburn (12.45 Saturday Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Stoke have been struggling in the Premier League but they have a chance to get back to winning ways when Blackburn visit the Britannia stadium. They have lost their last 4 games shipping 14 goals in the process, but remain a difficult side to play against. The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in Stoke’s current price of 4/5 (1.80)

Stoke have won 6 of their last 8 victories by 1 or 2 goals and Blackburn have lost 6 of their last 8 away games by the same margin. Dutching the Stoke win by 1 or 2 goals 11/10 (2.10) or better looks better value than the win.

Blackburn remain in a whole load of trouble, sitting second bottom and without a win in 7 games. They have drawn 4 from their 6 away games and will again attempt to hold out for a draw. The draw can be backed at 5/2 (3.50) and this does offer some value and it should be considered.

Blackburn can be backed at 4/1 (5.00) and this offers some value. However if you do fancy Blackburn to do well then you are best keeping the draw on your side and Blackburn can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.5 11/10 (2.10).

As for goals Blackburn have conceded more than 2 goals a game away from Ewood Park this season. Stoke when facing sides of a similar rating there is a bias to 3 or more goals with 5 of their last 8 home games having seen 3 or more. 7 of Blackburn’s last 10 away to similar rated sides have also seen Over 2.5 goals as has 4 of their last 6 opening away games this season. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 19/20 (1.95)

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Both teams to Score 10/11 (1.91).

Norwich v QPR

Stats Analysis

Norwich have yet to convince that they won’t be another Burnley or Blackpool, setting off in fine style only to fall apart in the New year. They nicked a couple of lucky results at Liverpool and Blackburn, but their luck appears to be running out with two defeats on the spin. Norwich can be backed at 5/4 (2.25) and this would seem the best option should you fancy Norwich to win, however the ratings indicate there isn’t much value in this price.

The draw can be backed at 5/2 (3.50) and this looks to offer good value and is worth consideration.

Its hard to trust QPR, they have put in some great displays, posting away wins at Everton, Wolves plus Stoke last weekend, but as well as getting a mauling off Spurs they followed previous great displays at Wolves and Aston Villa by getting hammered 6-0 at Fulham. QPR can be backed at 5/2 (3.50) and this looks to offer some value. However as the draw is so strong in this game if you do fancy QPR to win then we would look to keep it on our side and back QPR on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at 4/5 (1.8)

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more. Over 2.5 goals have been seen in 11 of Norwich’s last 15 home games including 4 of their opening 6 in general and home games and in 4 of QPR’s opening 6 general and away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 5/6 (1.83).

Norwich have aso not kept a clean sheet in 13 matches this season so both teams to score which has been seen in 13 of Norwich’s last 15 home games including 5 of their last 6 home games. Although this is nowhere near as strong for QPR where both teams have scored in only 5 of their last 15 away games, the trend is strong enough for Norwich and with both sides form to make the available price value 3/4 (1.75)

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The draw can be backed at 5/2 (3.50)

West Brom v Spurs

Stats Analysis

These two drew both games last season, but Tottenham’s magnificent run of form can continue at The Hawthorns, where Manchester United, Liverpool and Stoke have already won this season. Spurs were excellent against Aston Villa on Monday and their pace on the counter-attack should be too much for a leaky West Brom defence. The ratings are in line with whats on offer and in form Spurs can be backed at 19/20 (1.95). A better alternative is to dutch the Spurs win by 1 or 2 goals. All 6 of Spurs last 6 away victories have come via this margin, as has all 4 of West Brom’s last 4 home defeats. Dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals pays 7/5 (2.40).

There is a quite strong draw bias to the game and the draw can be backed at an attractive looking 11/4 (3.75)

As for goals West Brom have lost all four of their matches against teams in the top seven and their record against teams above them is 1 0 4 conceding 10 goals. Spurs on the other hand have won all 4 away games played against sides below them, scoring 2 or more goals each time. There has been Over 2.5 goals in 9 of Spurs last 15 away games and in 9 of West Broms last 15 home games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 4/5 (1.80)

Both teams to score could also be a viable option as both teams have scored in 9 of Spurs last 15 away games and in 10 of West Brom’s last 15 home games. Both teams to score can be backed at 4/5 (1.80).

We could see a fast start to the game as there has been a goal scored before the 25th minute in 11 of West Brom’s last 15 home games and in 10 of Spurs last 15 away games. The first goal of the game to come before the 24th minute can be backed at Evens (2.00)

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Dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals pays 7/5 (2.40).

Sunderland v Wigan

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Sunderland to win this game and they are hard to fancy at odds-on, but they take on a Wigan team in dire trouble. Sunderland have won only two of 13 games this season, but the Latics are offering up chances galore and you can see Sunderland creating plenty. Wigan have now gone 10 games without a win and with Sunderland unbeaten at home to sides in the bottom half of the table is difficult to see it changing. Sunderland can be backed at 8/11 (1.73)

Despite Wigan’s poor away form they are very rarely beaten heavily and if you do fancy Sunderland to do well then it could be worth considering dutching the Sunderland victory by 1 or 2 goals. All 8 of Wigan’s last 8 defeats away to similar rated sides have come via this margin. Dutching the Sunderland win by 1 or 2 goals 6/5 (2.20)

The draw can be backed at 11/4 (3.75) and at this price it certainly offers good value

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more and Over 2.5 goals has been seen in 7 of Sunderland’s last 10 at home to low rated sides and in 6 of Wigan’s last 10 away to similar rated sides. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 10/11 (1.91)

Both teams to score certainly makes for some appeal as Both teams have found the net in 7 of Sunderland’s last 10 at home to similar rated sides and in 6 of Wigan’s last 10 away to similar rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at 10/11 (1.91)

We should expect some late drama to the game as there has been a goal scored after 73 minutes in 8 of Sunderland’s last 10 at home to similar rated sides and in 6 of Wigan’s last 10 away to similar rated sides. The final goal of the game to be scored after 73 minutes can be backed at 10/11 (1.91).

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Dutching the Sunderland win by 1 or 2 goals 6/5 (2.20)

Man Utd v Newcastle

Stats Analysis

Newcastle's bubble is a long way from bursting but it could be deflated a little more by a defeat at Old Trafford. The Magpies have made the most of a kind set of early-season fixtures but they look inferior to a Manchester United side, who have benefited hugely from Nemanja Vidic's return. Manchester United have won five of their last six matches at home to Newcastle. The ratings are suggesting there’s not much value in Manchester Uniteds current price of 4/11 (1.36)

However their home record against similar rated sides to Newcastle is very impressive winning all 10 of their previous 10 matches and 8 of them to nil. Manchester United Win to nil is a value option at 11/10 (2.10). Dutching Manchester United to win by 1 or 2 goals also makes sense and all 5 of their last 5 victories have come via this margin Dutching the Manchester United victory by 1 or 2 goals at 10/11 (1.9).

Manchester United have conceded just 9 goals in 6 games and 6 of those were against Manchester City, Newcastle have the second best defence in the top flight, conceding 11 goals in 12 games. 3 or more goals offers no real value priced at 7/10 (1.70)

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Dutch the Manchester United victory by 1 or 2 goals at 10/11 (1.9)

Chelsea v Wolves

Stats Analysis

Wolves are really struggling and they won’t get any sympathy from a bruised Chelsea smarting from two league home defeats and a Champions league loss to Bayer Leverkusen. Chelsea are very short 1/4 (1.25) and the ratings don’t show much value there, The Half Time / Full Time victory is worth consideration as Chelsea have won 8 of their last 10 at home to low rated sides by this margin and Wolves have lost 6 of their last 10 away to top rated sides by this result. Chelsea can be backed at 8/11 (1.73).

Chelsea won 6 of these games to nil and Wolves lost 6 of their last 10 to nil and Chelsea can be backed at 20/21 (1.95). Chelsea have shipped seven goals in those home defeats to Arsenal and Liverpool and need to get back on track against struggling Wolves. However it's hard to back the Blues to keep a clean sheet against any opposition at the moment and they have conceded 11 goals in six home league games.

The draw can be backed at 11/2 (6.50) and this offers value but not much appeal

If you do fancy Wolves to do well then there is definitely some advantage in backing them +2 goals on the Asian Handicap at 76/100 (1.76)

Chelsea seem to always have plenty of second half action and the 2nd half has been the highest scoring half in 13 of Chelseas last 17 home games and in 4 of Wolves last 5 away games to top rated sides. The 2nd half to be the highest scoring can be backed at 11/10 (2.10)

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The 2nd half to be the highest scoring can be backed at 11/10 (2.10)

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There have been late goals seen at Stamford Bridge recently where 11 of Chelseas’s last 15 home games have seen a goal scored after 77 minutes. The last goal of the game to be scored after 77 minutes can be backed at 5/6 (1.83) or alternatively look to Lay the no goal in-running.

Bolton v Everton

Stats Analysis

Bolton have improved slightly in the last month, but that doesn’t mean their troubles are behind them. The Trotters are still in the bottom 3 and have conceded the most goals in the Premier League, 29 goals. Bolton can be backed at 2/1 (3.00) and they do have a good home record against similar rated sides winning 7 of their last 10 home matches. If you do fancy Bolton to do well then you’re best option is to keep the draw on your side and Bolton can be backed on the Asian Handicap off scratch +0 goals at 23/17 (2.35).

Everton themselves are struggling and indeed are only 4 points clear of Bolton and have lost 4 of 6 games, they do have a great record against sides in the bottom half of the table, winning all 4. Everton can be backed at 6/4 (2.50) and this is a value call, if you fancy Everton to do well then it could pay to back them on the Asian handicap -0.25 goals at 17/16 (2.06)

Bolton have conceded 17 goals in six home league matches, there is a bias here towards 3 or more, Bolton have 10 of their last 15 home games have seen 3 or more goals as have 7 of their last 10 home matches to similar rated sides. For Everton 7 of their last 13 away matches have seen 3 or more goals including their last 3. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 9/10 (1.90)

Early goals could be expected here, there has been a goal scored before the 27th minute in 9 of Everton’s last 10 away games to similar rated sides and in 4 of Bolton’s last 4 home games to similar rated sides. The 1st goal of the game to be scored before 27 minutes can be backed at Evens (2.00)

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1st goal of the game to be scored before 27 minutes can be backed at Evens (2.00)

Arsenal v Fulham (17.30 Saturday ESPN)

Stats Analysis

Arsenal can reflect on a relatively successful couple of months, there are still problems with defence, but Thomas Vermaelen’s return has helped keep 2 clean sheets in the last 3 games, but its his partners that don’t exactly fill with confidence and Stoke, Sunderland and Bolton have all scored at the Emirates Stadium. Arsenal can be backed at 5/11 (1.45) and this price offers no real value.

Arsenal to win to nil may be a good option as Arsenal have kept 9 clean sheets in their last 15 home games and Fulham have scored away to top rated sides in only 4 of their last 10 away. Arsenal can be backed at 16/11 (2.45) to win to nil

The draw can be backed at 7/2 (4.50) and although this offers value it offers little appeal

Fulham, the side that could never win away, have kept five clean sheets on their last seven road trips and picked up four points from the last two away league games. Fulham can be backed at 7/1 (8.00) and this price offers some value. If you do fancy Fulham to do well then your best option is to back them on the Asian Handicap +1.25 goals at a shade over 5/6 (1.84)

Arsenal’s last eight Premier League games have each produced three goals or more Overs (1.75)

No on both teams to score could interest as both teams have scored in only 5 of Arsenal’s last 15 home games and in only 2 of Fulhams last 10 away games. The No on Both teams to score can be backed at 21/20 (2.05)

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No on Both teams to score can be backed at 21/20 (2.05)

Swansea v Aston Villa (13.30 Sunday Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Aston Villa were run ragged in their defeat at Spurs and they may not see much of the ball against an accomplished Swansea side. The Swans were unlucky to lose to Manchester United in their last home game and with improved finishing they could give Villa a tough task. The ratings are suggesting that there is some value in backing Swansea to win this game. Swansea can be backed at 13/10 (2.30)

There is a strong draw bias to the game and the draw can be backed at 5/2 (3.50) and has to be given real consideration.

Swansea have conceded just two goals in six home games this season However Aston Villa have only failed to find the net twice in their last 15 away games. Moreover they have also scored in each of their last 10 away games to low rated sides, both teams scored in 8 of these games. Both teams to score can be backed at 4/5 (1.80)

The 2/3 goals in the total goals market certainly looks of interest as 9 of Aston Villa’s last 10 away to low rated sides have seen 2 or 3 goals. This has also been the total in 8 of Swansea’s last 15 home games 2/3 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00)

The Half Time draw. Aston Villa have been level at the break in 5 of their last 6 away low rated sides and Swansea have been level at the break in 3 of their opening 6 home matches this season . The half time draw can be backed at 5/4 (2.25)

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The half time draw can be backed at 5/4 (2.25)

Liverpool v Man City (16.00 Sunday Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Liverpool have kept just one clean sheet in their six home games. Glen Johnson's winner at Stamford Bridge was a major boost for Liverpool but they could come back down to earth when the league leaders visit Anfield. The Reds have drawn their last three at home and could be vulnerable against City's stellar strikeforce. If you do fancy Liverpool to do well then its probably best is to back them on the Asian Handicap +0 goals at 11/10 (2.10)

There is a strong draw bias to the game and the draw can be backed at 12/5 (3.40)

Manchester City can be backed at 6/4 (2.50) and this price offers some value. Liverpool are particularly strong at home though so if you want to keep the draw completely on your side then Manchester City can be backed off scratch +0 goals at 7/8 (1.88)

So lets go for goals, one reason City are clear at the top is the cavalier approach they have taken when playing other top sides and there have been 4 goals in all 5 games against other top half teams. Over 2.5 goals and this has been seen in 10 of Manchester City’s last 15 away games Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 10/11 (1.91). Both sides have scored in Manchester Citys last 6 games. Both Teams to score 8/11 (1.73)

The 2nd half has seen Over 1.5 goals in 5 of Liverpool’s last 9 home games to top rated sides and in 4 of Manchester City’s last 6 away to similar rated sides. The 2nd half to contain Over 1.5 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00) The 2nd half has been the highest scoring in 5 of Liverpools last 10 home games to top rated sides and in 5 of Manchester City’s last 6 away games to similar rated sides. The 2nd half to be the highest scoring can be backed at 11/10 (2.10)

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Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 10/11 (1.91).