Newcastle v Everton (Sky Sports 2 Saturday 12.45)
Stats Analysis
This is a difficult game to call with many misleading stats and trends over the previous head to head performances. Everton whilst in 16th in the Premier League would go 9th with a win here and until their well disciplined win at Stoke, Newcastle had not beaten a side out of the bottom 6. The present odds for Newcastle however do offer some value at 13/10 (2.3)
There is a strong draw bias to this game and the draw can be backed at 23/10 (3.30) and should be considered.
As for goals then there is value in backing 3 or more. Over 2.5 goals has been seen in 7 of Newcastles last 10 at home to similar rated sides and in 7 of Evertons last 15 away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 21/20 (2.05). Over 3.5 goals also looks to offer some value as 4 or more goals have been seen in 7 of Newcastles last 15 home matches. Over 3.5 goals can be backed at 14/5 (3.80)
The first half to feature Over 1.5 goals looks of interest as this has been seen in 9 of Newcastles last 15 home games. The 1st half to contain Over 1.5 goals can be backed at 21/10 (3.10).
Both teams to score also stands out as this has been seen in 9 of Newcastles last 10 at home to similar rated sides and Both teams have scored in 8 of Evertons last 15 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at 5/6 (1.83)
BetsLayer Value Highlight
Both teams to score 5/6 (1.83)
QPR v Manchester City (ESPN Saturday 17.30)
Stats Analysis.
If you can win 5-1 at Spurs and 6-1 at Old Trafford you can win anywhere, so the question isn’t who will win but how they will win. In truth there is little value in City’s price 4/11 (1.36). This is particulary true when you assess the one solitary failure to win in the league, away at Fulham, also came after a Wednesday Champions League game.
City have scored more than 2 goals in all 13 domestic games this season, but the most interesting stat concerns the variation between first half and second half performances. They have conceded only one goal in the first half and have only scored 8 of their 36 goals before the break. Rangers have kept a first half clean sheet in half their games the Draw/Man City double result could be a contender 4/1 (5.0)
Both teams to score has some appeal as both teams have found the net in 7 of Manchester Citys last 10 away games to low rated sides and in 4 of Man Citys opening 5 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at 20/21 (1.95)
BetsLayer Value Highlight
2nd Half most goals 11/10 (2.10)
Manchester United v Sunderland
Stats Analysis
Manchester United will still be licking their wounds after the derby humiliation against City but historically they have responded well to set backs, but there is no real value in their price of 1/4 (1.25).
Manchester United do have a fantastic home record against similar rated sides winning their last 10, so we need to look at options to give us better value. The half time / Full time result is worth consideration and Manchester United have won 7 of those last 10 at home by this result, Sunderland have also lost 6 of their last 7 away defeats by this result. Manchester United HT/FT 8/11 (1.73). United have also won 8 of those last 10 home games to nil and this can be backed at 11/10 (2.10).
The draw can be backed at 11/2 (6.50) and in truth although this offers little appeal it does offer value.
As for goals then the only value is Under 3.5 which can be backed at 4/6 (1.67) or above, there has been 3 or less goals in 5 of Manchester Uniteds last 6 home games to similar rated sides and in 6 of Sunderlands last 7 away to top rated sides.
BetsLayer Value Highlight
Manchester United HT/FT 8/11 (1.73)
Blackburn v Chelsea
Stats Analysis
Chelsea have had real problems and back to back defeats to QPR and Arsenal have exposed their ageing squad, but we fully expect them to get their act together and bounce back against Blackburn, however the price at 1/2 offers little value or attraction even accounting for their recent Ewood park record of 4 wins in the last 5.
Dutching the Chelsea win by 1 or 2 goals would make sense and although they do occasionally win large at lower rated opposition they have won via the 1 or 2 goal margin in 11 of their last 16 away victories at such sides. This can be backed at better than evens (2.0)
The draw can be backed at 15/4 (4.75) and this offers value and is worth consideration when you consider that Blackburn have drawn 4 of their last 10 home games to top rated sides.
Both teams to score seems a reasonable bet as Both teams have scored in 6 of Blackburns last 8 at home to top rated sides and in 6 of Chelseas last 10 away to similar rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at 4/5 (1.80). Fernando Torres prior to his red card at Swansea had been getting back into something like his old scoring form with 4 in his last 6 games. He can be backed to score First at 4/1 (5.00)
BetsLayer Value Highlight
Dutch Chelsea to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.00)
Arsenal v West Brom
Stats Anlysis
Both sides have found some recent form after slow starts and West Broms best results have come away from home. Arsenal do have an exceptional record at home to similar rated sides which reads W9 D0 L1 and without Shane Long its seems likely that Arsenal will have too much, although West Brom have taken points in 3 of the last 4 games including the win above in this game last season.
Arsenal certainly now, do not seem to win large against this type of opposition as they did a couple of seasons ago and they have won 7 of their last 9 home victories against similar sides by 1 or 2 goals. Dutching the Arsenal victory by 1 or 2 goals pays Evens (2.00).
The draw can be backed at 15/4 (4.75) and this offers some good value, West Brom can be backed at 15/2 (8.50) and whilst offering value doesn’t really appeal.
As for goals we should expect a few especially in the case of West Brom as 11 of their last 15 away games have seen 3 or more goals as have all 5 of their previous games away to top rated sides. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 3/5 (1.60).
West Brom have only failed to find the net once in their last 11 away matches. Taking this into account the 4/5 (1.80) would seem a reasonable but it must be remembered that Arsenal have kept 9 clean sheets in their last 15 home matches.
Arsenal have drawn the first half of 4 of their 5 domestic home games all against sides placed 9th or lower. 7/4 (2.75)
BetsLayer Value Highlight
Dutch Arsenal to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.00)
Liverpool v Swansea
Stats Analysis
Swansea’s place in the top half of the table is down to their 3-2-0 record, away from home they have lost all 4 times against teams from the top 10. Liverpool were held in their last home game against Norwich, but did create many chances.
Liverpool tend to start these games quickly and they have been leading at Half time in 5 of their last 6 home matches to lower rated sides. Liverpool have yet to concede in the first half at home this season. Liverpool HT 8/11 (1.73).
As for goals there are some mixed stats on these two sides. However one stat that is constant is that Liverpool have conceded in every home game so far this season, Swansea have scored in their last 3 away matches including a 4-1 defeat at Chelsea. Both teams to score can be backed at 11/10 (2.10) and this looks a value option.
BetsLayer Value Highlight
Liverpool HT 8/11 (1.73).
Aston Villa v Norwich
Stats Analysis
Aston Villa started the season with 7 games unbeaten, but a home loss to West Brom shows they can be got at, although the red card contributed, but Norwich will be no pushovers here. The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in Aston Villas current price (1.83) and indeed their record at home to low rated sides is not very strong winning only 4 of their last 10 games.
If you do fancy Aston Villa to win this game then dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals certainly makes sense as 5 of their last 6 victories at home to low rated sides have come via this margin as has both of Norwichs away defeats this season. Dutching the Aston Villa win by 1 or 2 goals pays slightly under 6/5 (2.18).
The draw can be backed at 13/5 (3.60) and this looks to offer value and should certainly be considered given Aston Villa’s form against similar oppositition and Norwich are a tough side to beat losing only 1 from 6 so far and they were unlucky in that loss at Old Trafford.
Norwich can be backed at 15/4 (4.75) and this price offers value. If you do fancy them to do well then we would suggest leaving the draw on your side and back Norwich Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at 11/10 (2.10).
As for goals there is a bias to 2 or under and this has been seen in 10 of Aston Villas last 14 home games and in 3 of Norwichs opening 5 away games. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00).
Both teams to score makes for some appeal as Norwich have only failed to find the net in one of their opening 5 away games which was Old Trafford as above and both sides have scored in 10 of their last 15 away games. In the case of Aston Villa the trend is not as strong and 5 of their last 10 home games has seen both sides score. Both teams to score is priced 4/5 (1.80).
BetsLayer Value Highlight
Dutching the Aston Villa win by 1 or 2 6/5 (2.2).
BetsLayer Trade Zone.
Under 2.5 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00). One way to approach the game is to lay off liability as the game takes shape i.e 50% at 10 mins and then the rest until the end as you feel the game is going, even with a first half goal the odds at HT would be less than initially backed.
Wolves v Wigan (Sky Sports 1 Sunday 13.30)
Stats Analysis
Wolves have a great chance to kick start their season here, Wigan are bottom of the league and are 8/13 to be relegated, they have won only 1 of their last 10 games. Wolves have a good record at home to fellow low rated sides and Wigan are in poor form at the moment losing 4 of their opening 5 away games.Priced at Evens (2.00) this price offers some value and it seems a reasonable option given Wolves recent home record to fellow low rated sides and Wigans poor recent away form.
The draw can be backed at 5/2 (3.50) and this looks to offer good value in a real six pointer relegation battle, where both sides will really fear losing.
As for goals, when it comes to facing sides of a similar grade then there is a bias to 3 or more. Over 2.5 goals have been seen in 7 of Wigans last 10 away games to similar sides and in 11 of Wolves last 15 home games. Over 2.5 goals Evens (2.00)
There has been a goal scored after 73 minutes in 7 of Wolves last 10 home games at home to similar sides and in 7 of Wigans last 10 away games. The last goal of the game to come after 73 minutes can be backed at 10/11 (1.91).
BetsLayer Value Highlight
Wolves to win Evens (2.00)
BetsLayer Trade Zone.
Look to lay no goal after 70 minutes at under Evens (2.00)
Bolton v Stoke
Stats Analysis
Stoke are struggling to balance the demands of European football and will probably be content with a draw here. Bolton do look a poor side however and 5 losses at home is the stuff of nightmares.
There is a strong draw bias to the game and the draw can be backed at 12/5 (3.40) and this offers some value is worth strong consideration.
Stoke can be backed at 2/1 (3.00) and this offers some value. However their recent away form is pretty poor. If you fancy Stoke to do well your best option is probably to back them on the Asian Handicap and the 19/16 (2.18) for +0 is reasonable.
As for goals there certainly is a bias to 2 or less goals and this has been seen in 7 of Stokes last 10 away to similar rated sides and in 4 of Boltons last 10 at home. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at 10/11 (1.91). The main reasoning for this is that Stoke struggle to score away from home, especially after European games with no gaols following an away tie on Thursday and Bolton have also struggled recently to score at home.
Finally in the case of Bolton when facing similar rated sides there is a strong chance of a tight start to the match as 5 of their last 10 home games have been 0-0 at half time with 7 of the 10 games seeing the second half as the highest scoring, first goal of the game can be backed to be scored after 25 mins at 10/11 (1.91). In the case of Stoke 4 of their last 10 away games have been 0-0 at the break. This could give us a few viable options. The half time draw can be backed at 6/5 (2.20) with the 0-0 score line being offered at 2/1 (3.00). We could also look to back the Under 2.5 as above and trade down using a Trade Zone strategy. The second half to be the highest scoring can be backed at 23/20 (2.15)
BetsLayer Value Highlight
The second half to be the highest scoring 23/20 (2.15)
BetsLayer Trade Zone.
Back Under 2.5 at 10/11 (1.91) look to lay off 50% at 10 mins and gradually lay off the remainder until the 25th minute. If there is an early goal, assess the minutes after the goal and look to reduce liability.
Fulham v Spurs
Stats Analysis
Its difficult not to see Spurs heading back to north london with all 3 points, particularly if Rafael van der Vaart continues his superb form. Spurs are in very good form and can be backed at 13/10 (2.30).
There is a strong draw bias here and Fulham have drawn 4 from 9 against similar rated sides and the draw can be backed at 12/5 (3.40).
As for goals there is a bias to Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score with some strong stats. 3 goals or more have been seen in 10 of Fulhams last 15 home games and in 8 of Spurs last 10 away games to similar rated sides, infact Spurs are averaging 3.5 goals per game this season. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 10/11 (1.91), Both to score is available at 4/6 (1.67) Both teams have scored in 9 of Spurs last 10 away games to similar rated sides and in 5 of Fulhams last 9 at home. This offers less value than the Overs.
BetsLayer Value Highlight
Over 2.5 goals 10/11 (1.91)
No comments:
Post a Comment