UFC 153 Betting Value

Preamble: the first blog for UFC 152 brought a huge win, with two out of three correct in both winner and method, and the other one had the winner right. I’ve narrowed the bets down for this weeks UFC 153 in Brazil to a few options in each case and then picked the most likely and value outcome, and after the previous success I’ve also discussed more fights. It’s a tall order to live up to but here goes…

Anderson Silva v Stephan Bonnar

The most one-sided odds in UFC history (with Silva 1/12 to win) makes for some interesting analysis and despite first impressions there is some value. Yes, Silva is widely recognized as the best pound for pound fighter ever, but he is going up a weight to 205, at short notice against someone who has never been stopped (apart from on cuts). Bonnar could win as the blueprint for defeating Silva is well known: close the distance, take him down and top control the way to a decision, and with Bonnar’s experience and size he could have a shot at this. Bonnar to win by decision is a huge 24/1 with Sporting bet and in a two horse race could be the win of the century. But Silva will be well aware of this strategy too and should control the distance and catch Bonnar with shots coming in. The tempting longer value is Bonnar decision, but the outcome will probably be Silva KO at 8/13 with Paddy Power

Nogueira v Herman

This is an upset in the making. I’ve loved Nogueira since the first time I saw him years ago fighting the now laughable Bob Sapp, but there’s a lot of miles on his clock. Factor in a recent arm break possibly affecting his power right hand and a short notice fight affecting his cardio and this could be Herman’s night. That being said Herman has been KO’d in his last two fights against good opposition and is in Nogueira’s back yard, so for Nogueira fans a submission victory at 6/5 Paddy Power is a decent bet. For this one I’m sticking my neck out and going for the underdog though, as these odds seem a tad generous, Herman has quite a high striking rate and his more rounded strikes should wear down Nogueira as he avoids the Brazilian’s legendary ground game, eventually letting cardio do the rest and a Herman KO at 11/4 Sky Bet is too long odds to ignore. Whatever happens given how easy these fighters get hit and the short notice fight this won’t go the distance, so a bet on the fight not going the distance (2/9 with Paddy Power) offers probably the most secure chance of winning.

Fabio Maldonado v Glover Teixeira

This is an interesting match up that offers perhaps the clearest bet of the night. Maldonado is an ex-boxer and Teixeira is a more rounded but extremely heavy-handed slugger. This one either stays standing and Teixeira wins the battle of the chins or Teixeira knocks him down and finishes him on the ground. The issue is what happens when Teixeira knocks him down, will he KO him or submit him on the floor? It’s difficult to call, so maybe a straight Teixeira win at 2/7 Paddy Power is the safest option.

Davis v Prado

This is a rematch of a fight that stopped very early in a no contest due to an eye poke, but we still learned a little about how it may pan out. Davis is an ex US collegiate wrestler and Prado a more rounded striker and jiu-jitsu man. In the first fight Prado caught Davis and had him a little worried backpedalling, which is when he accidentally pawed his opponents eye when trying to keep the distance. Davis learns his lesson, doesn’t exchange and uses his vastly superior wrestling to take him down to a decision victory. Davis Decision Best odds are 21/10 with Ladbrokes.

Jon Fitch v Erick Silva

This is a great match up. Probably the best ‘take down wrestler and decision grinder’ in MMA (Fitch) up against the explosive and lighting fast striker Silva. Its tempting to go for the Fitch decision at 7/4 Ladbrokes as he’s the underdog and this offers his only realistic route to success, but Silva is the real deal and I’ve had him marked as a future champ since his debut. It’s not a straight-forward call, but I think Silva by KO (3/1) Paddy Power is the most likely outcome.