Sunday Premier League value analysis (December 18th)

QPR V MANCHESTER UNITED (Sunday 12.00 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

QPR have struggled at home, but could give United a tough time here, infact their two best performances have come when playing the top rated sides, beating Chelsea 1-0 and narrowly losing to Manchester City 2-3. QPR can be backed at (8.00) and this looks to offer some some small value. Manchester United do though have a very strong record away against low rated sides which reads W8 D1 L1. Manchester United can be backed at (1.50) which is about right to the ratings. If you do fancy Manchester United to win this match then dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals would make sense. Indeed they have won 7 of their last 9 matches away to low rated sides by the 1 or 2 goal margin.  Dutching the Manchester United win by 1 or 2 goals (2.00)

The draw is priced at (4.5) and this looks to offer again some small value, given QPR's home form and Uniteds lack of goals.

As for goals there some mixed stats and certainly there is no value in an Over 2.5 goals price of (1.8) QPR have had -2.5 goals in 5 of the last 6 home matches as have Man Utd in 5 of the last 5 away games. Over 2.5 goals (2.12). Both teams to score certainly looks a better option as both teams have scored in 6 of Manchester United's last 8 games away to low rated sides and QPR have found the net in all their last 5 home games. Both teams to score can be backed at (2.00)

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Dutching Manchester United win by 1 or 2 goals (2.00)

ASTON VILLA v LIVERPOOL (Sunday 14.05 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Aston Villa at last showed some passion in their win at Bolton Wanderers, Aston Villa can be backed at (3.80) and this looks to offer some decent value. If you do fancy Aston Villa to do well then it could be wise to keep the draw on side and back on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at (1.90).There is no real value in Liverpool's current price and although they have a decent record at Villa Park only losing 1 from the last 5 the ratings say that there is no real value in backing Liverpool at (2.10) If you do fancy Liverpool to win then dutching them to win by the 1 or 2 goal margin makes sense as none of Aston Villa's last 9 home defeats have been by 3 goals or more. Dutching Liverpool to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.30).

 The draw can be backed at (3.50) and looking at the ratings this must be a strong consideration

As for goals are there is a bias to 2 or less. No more than two goals have been scored in 7 of the last 8 of Aston Villa’s home games against similar rated teams and in 11 of the last 15 of Liverpool’s league games this season. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.75). Both teams have not found the net in 4 of Aston Villa's last 8 home games and 10 of Liverpool's last 15 (6 of Liverpool's last 10 away at similar rated sides). Also both teams have scored in only 1 of the last 5 head to heads at Villa Park the No on both teams to score can be backed at (1.95).

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The Draw (3.50)

TOTTENHAM v SUNDERLAND

Stats Analysis

Spurs run of 9 wins from 11 league games came to an end at Stoke and Sunderland enjoyed a home win under Martin O'Neill, but this assignment will surely be tougher for him.Spurs can be backed at (1.40) and this about the right price. Dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals makes sense as all 10 of their last 10 home victories to similar rated sides have come via this margin. Dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals at (2.02)

Spurs have had W/Ws in 5 of the last 5 home matches (11 from last 19 against similar rated sides) while Sunderland have had L/Ls in 7 of the last 10 away games against top rated teams. Spurs HT/FT (2.06)

The draw can be backed at (5.00) and although holds value, there is real attraction given Spurs home form against similar rated sides. Sunderland can be backed at (9.00). However if you do fancy Sunderland to do well then your best option is to back them on the Asian Handicap +1.25 goals at (2.05)

As for goals it may well best to go for 2 or less this has been seen in 7 of Sunderland's last 8 away games to similar rated sides and in 6 of Spurs last 10 at home to similar rated sides. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.40).

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Dutching Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals at (2.02)

MAN CITY v ARSENAL (Sunday 16.10 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there isn't much value in backing Manchester City to win this game. However they do have an excellent home record of late and do have a very good record at home to similar rated sides which reads W6 D1 L3. Manchester City to win via the Half time / Full time result should be considered as this has been the method of victory in 9 of Manchester City's last 9 victories at home to top rated sides and in 5 of Arsenal's last 6 away defeats. Manchester City can be backed at (2.60). Dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals would seem also a sensible option as Arsenal have lost 5 of their last 6 away defeats by this margin to top rated sides (2.22)

Man City have won the first half in 11 of the last 14 home matches while Arsenal have lost the first half in 7 of the last 9 away matches against top rated sides. Man City HT (2.30)

The draw can be backed at (3.80) and isn't really all that attractive. Arsenal can be backed at (5.50) and this offers value. However if you do fancy Arsenal to do well then your best option is to back them on the Asian Handicap +0.75 goals at (2.05)

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more and much depends on whether you expect Arsenal to score or not. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 4/5 (1.80) and this looks reasonable. As for both teams to score there is certainly some value in backing No on both teams to score as both teams have found the net in only 3 of Man Citys last 14 home games against top rated sides. The No on both teams to score can be backed at (2.20)

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Dutch Manchester City to Win by 1 or 2 goals (2.22)