LIVERPOOL v NEWCASTLE (Friday 19.45 Sky Sports 1)
Stats Analysis
Liverpool are unbeaten at home this season with three wins and six draws in their nine league games, but they have had too many home draws against inferior oppsition. The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in their current price at (1.57). Newcastle are a tough nut to crack away from home and if you do fancy Liverpool to win then the best option is to dutch them to win by 1 or 2 goals, all 3 of Liverpoool's home victories this season have come via this margin as have all 5 of Newcastle's previous 5 away defeats. Dutching the Liverpool win by 1 or 2 goals (2.00).
Newcastle can be backed at (8.00) and this looks to offer good value. If you do fancy Newcastle to do well then the best option is to keep the draw on side and Newcastle can be backed on the Asian Handicap +1 goal at (2.10). The draw is priced at (4.50) and this looks to offer some value especially given Liverpool's recent home form which has seen then draw 5 of their last 6 games at home.
As for goals, there certainly seems some value in backing 2 or less, as this has been seen in 9 of Liverpool's last 15 home games and in 5 from 9 Newcastle aways + 4 of Newcastle's last 5 away to similar rated sides. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.00). Both teams to score is an option given Liverpool's recent form where both teams have found the net in 7 of their last 9 home games and in 6 of Newcastle's last 7 away games. Both teams to score (2.10)
Trade Zone Value
There has been a goal scored after 74 minutes in only 3 of Liverpool's last 10 at home to similar rated sides and in only 1 of Newcastle's last 6 away to similar rated sides. The last goal of the game to be scored before 74 minutes (1.91).
Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.00)
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