Boxing Day (cont) + Premier League Betting Value (December 27th)

STOKE v ASTON VILLA (Monday 19.45 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Stoke occupy their best position at Christmas in 37 years, the ratings show that there isn't much value in backing Stoke to win this game. They do though have an excellent record at home to similar rated sides which reads W8 D0 L2. Stoke to win (2.05).

There is a fairly strong draw bias to this game and the draw can be backed at (3.50). Aston Villa can be backed at (4.20) and this looks to offer value, Alex McLeish's side have though taken just eight points from the last 30 available and have won just once (v Norwich) in eight games against top-half clubs so far this season. If you do fancy Villa to do well you are certainly best keeping the draw on side and Aston Villa can be backed +0.5 goals on the Asian handicap (2.00).

As for goals there could be some value in backing Over 2.5 goals and this has been seen in 8 of the last 15 Stoke home games and 10 of the last 15 Villa away games. Over 2.5 goals (2.10). The same can be said with both teams to score as both teams have scored in 9 of Stoke's last 15 home games and in 12 of Aston Villa's last 15 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.85)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals (2.10) 

ARSENAL v WOLVES

Stats Analysis

The Gunners have dropped just four points when playing at home this season, there is though no value about their price here at (1.25). If you do fancy Arsenal it could make sense to back them to win by 1 or 2 goals, 7 of the last 9 home wins and 7 from the last 10 against similar rated teams has been by this margin. Arsenal to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.05)

Arsenal have drawn the first half in 6 of the last 8 home matches (6 of 9 against low rated teams) as have Wolves in 4 of the last 8 away games. HT draw is priced at a value (3.00)

Wolves' only away win this term came on the opening day at Blackburn. They are winless in seven subsequent matches. The ratings though suggest that at (15.00) there is value in Wolves price here. If you do think Wolves can do well here, it could certainly pay to back the +2 goals on the Asian Handicap market at (1.9). There is good value about the draw at (6.5) but with both sides records against similar rated sides this doesn't hold much attraction.

As for goals, there is a slight bias to 3 or more, this has featured in 5 of Arsenal's last 10 against similar rated sides and 9 of the last 15 Wolves away games, 6 from 10 against similar rated sides. Overs at (1.59) though offers no value and infact is bringing Unders into good value territory, maybe useful for time decay trading inrunning. Both Teams to score looks priced about right (2.00) with it featuring in 50% of each sides rated form.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Arsenal to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.05)

SWANSEA v QPR (Tuesday 17:00 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

All of Swansea's four Premier League wins have come at the Liberty Stadium, Swansea can be backed at (2.10) to win this match and this is priced about right. Swansea have a strong defensive record at the Liberty Stadium and have only conceded in 2 matches of their 8 at home. It may be worth backing them to win to nil (3.25) as QPR have not scored in any of their last 3 visits to Swansea. As an alternative to this Swansea can be backed at (2.62) to keep a clean sheet.

QPR have lost their last three league games and have won just one in eight, three of their four league victories this season have been achieved away from home though. QPR can be backed at (3.80) and this is priced about right. However if you do fancy QPR to do well then you are certainly best keeping the draw on your side and QPR can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.25 goals at (2.17). The draw is priced at (3.40) is about right, but should be considered.

As for goals there is a bias to 2 goals or under. There have been -2.5 goals in 6 of the 8 Swansea home matches. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.80) No on Both teams to score as above could be good selection at odds of (2.00).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

No on Both Teams to score (2.00)

NORWICH v SPURS (Tuesday 19:30 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Norwich are unbeaten in their last three league games. Norwich are priced at (5.00) and this looks to offer some value. If you do fancy Norwich to do well then your best option is to keep the draw on side and back them +0.5 goals on the Asian Handicap at (2.17). The draw can be backed at (3.80) and this offers some good value.

Spurs are on a good run at the moment and have won 5 of their last 7 away matches. Spurs can be backed at (1.80) to win this match and this doesn't offer much value. If you do fancy Spurs to win dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals would make sense as all 7 of Spurs last 7 away victories have come via this margin as has both of Norwich's home defeats this season. Dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals (2.20)

There have been +2.5 goals in 6 of the last 8 Norwich home matches and in 8 of the last 11 Spurs away matches. Overs is available at a small but still value price (1.67). Both teams have scored in each of Norwich’s last ten matches and have scored in 13 of Norwich's last 15 home games and in 7 of Spurs last 10 away to low rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at a still value (1.67)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutch the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals (2.20)