Boxing Day Premier League Betting Value (December 26th)

MERRY CHRISTMAS to all, hope you all have a great time and that we can find some value to pay for the food and festive drinks!


CHELSEA v FULHAM

Stats Analysis

Chelsea have won 12 of the last 15 home matches, but are no real value to win this game in present form at (1.33)

Fulham have lost 6 of the last 8 away matches against top rated teams and Martin Jol's side have scored the fewest away goals in the Premier League this season, netting only four times in eight matches. At (12.00) however the ratings say there is some slim value in backing Fulham. The draw (5.00) is strong value at these odds if you do fancy Chelsea to slip up again.

Chelsea have Over 2.5 goals 13 of the last 15 home matches and 6 of the last 8 home matches against similar rated sides. Fulham have Over 2.5 goals in 5 of the last 10 matches at top rated sides. Over 2.5 goals is available at (1.75) and at this price doesn't offer much value. Both teams scored in 11 of the last 15 home matches and in 5 of the last 10 away to similar rated sides so at (2.10) this looks to be some value.

Trade Zone Value
Goal after 75th min    (1.91)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Goal after 75th min    (1.91)

LIVERPOOL v BLACKBURN

Stats Analysis

Liverpool have lost just 1 of the last 12 in the league and have conceded just 13 goals this season, the lowest in the league. They have kept clean sheets in their last three matches. The odds are about right at (1.30). If you do fancy the home side it makes sense to back Liverpool to win by 1 or 2 goals as this has been the result in all their home wins this season and Blacburn's last 6 away defeats (2.00)

Blackburn haven't won away from home this season and have lost four of their last five Premier League games, including the last three. They are no value at (13.00) to win this game. If you do fancy Blackburn it could be worth backing on the Asian Handicap +2 goals which has only been beaten 2 in their last 10 away to similar rated sides. Blackburn +2 goals (2.00). The draw at (5.50) is reasonable value, especially given that Liverpool have drawn 4 of the last 10 at home against similar rated sides.

There are some mixed stats on the over / under and it might worth avoiding these markets. Both teams have scored in 6 of the last 8 of Liverpool’s home matches and also in 8 of the last 8 of Blackburn’s away fixtures (10 of 14 against similar rated sides). Both Teams to score is reasonable value at (2.3).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Liverpool to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.00)

MANCHESTER UNITED v WIGAN

Stats Analysis

Manchester United have the joint-most Premier League clean sheets (8) with Swansea, but there is little value in their price of (1.17). They have had W/W in the HT/FT in 11 of the last 13 against low rated sides while Wigan have had L/Ls in 7 of the last 8 away games against top-three finishers. Manchester United  HT/FT is value priced at (1.6)

Wigan are unbeaten in their last five games (W2, D3) but Manchester United and Wigan have met 13 times, and the Red Devils have won every match.At (21.00) there is little value or attraction about the Latics in this game. If you do fancy Wigan to do well the +2 goals on Asian Handicap at (2.5) looks slight value, although United have started to find their scoring boots in the last few games.

As for the goals there is a very strong bias to 3 or more, against similar rated sides, its been the outcome in 8 of the last 10 for United and in 7 of the last 10 for Wigan, but in general it looks a bit short at (1.5). Sir Alex Ferguson's team have scored at least once in all 26 of their matches (all competitions) this season, The Latics have failed to score in six of their 17 matches. There are mixed stats on the Both Teams to score between general and against similar rated sides, with Wigan only having this outcome once in 10 games against top rated sides. No on Both Teams to Score (1.7)

Trade Zone Value
First Goal after 21st min    (1.91)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

First Goal after 21st min    (1.91)

BOLTON v NEWCASTLE

Stats Analysis

Bolton ended a five-match losing streak by beating Blackburn to climb off the foot of the table, but this will be a test of their staying up credentials. There is little value in their currect price (2.63).

Newcastle are winless in six games (D2, L4). They have only taken one point from four matches in December, but have a decent record against similar rated sides winning 5 from the last 10 away games and at (2.88) offer sound value to win this game. The draw is available at (3.4) which is worth consideration but priced about right. Also if you fancy Newcastle there is value in backing them HT/FT as this has been seen in 3 of their last 4 away wins and in 7 of the last 10 Bolton home games. Newcastle/Newcastle HT/FT (5.50)

There have been +2.5 goals scored in 14 of the last 17 Bolton games, 7 from 10 against similar rated sides (22 of 36 at home under Owen Coyle) and in 9 of  the last 12 of Newcastle’s league fixtures. Over 2.5 is available at (1.75). There looks to be some value in the No on both teams to score, this has been seen in 5 from the last 10 Bolton home games against similar opposition and in 6 of the last 10 Newcastle away against similar opposition. No on Both to Score (2.60).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

No on Both to Score (2.60) 

SUNDERLAND v EVERTON 

Stats Analysis

Sunderland have won just four home league matches in 2011 but they have lost only one of their last six at home. There is no value about their current price (2.40)

Sunderland have been level at HT in 4 of the last 5 home matches (4 of the last 7 against similar rated teams) as have Everton in 5 of the last 8 away games against similar rated sides. HT draw is priced at (2.2). The draw is priced at (3.45) and looks a good option in a game with no stand out stats either way.

All six of Everton's wins this season have come against sides in the bottom half of the table and at (3.10) they are a value call to win this game. It could make sense to keep the draw on side and back them +0 goals on the Asian Handicap at (2.10).

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more, with 12 of Sunderland's last 15 seeing this outcome, the stats are less strong for Everton, but at (2.20) this still offers value. Both teams to score has some mixed stats, again stronger with Sunderland, looking at the rated form, Both teams have scored in only 4 from the last 10 games so the NO looks value priced at (2.10).

  

Trade Zone Value

1st Goal Before 25 Mins (2.00) 

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The Draw (3.45)

WEST BROM v MAN CITY

Stats Analysis

The ratings are showing there is little value in the Man City price (1.5), if you do fancy City to win it could make sense to back them HT/FT as 4 of the last 6 away wins against similar rated sides have been by this result Man City/Man City HT/FT (2.22).

There is value in West Broms price of (7.5) but they have lost 4 of the last 5 when playing at home against top rated sides. There is also some good value in the draw at (4.75). If you do fancy West Brom it makes sense to keep the draw onside and back +1 goal on the Asian Handicap at (2.25)

There is not much value in the over / under 2.5 market at Overs (1.63). At least four goals have been scored in 3 of the last 3 of WBA’s home matches against top-four teams and in 6 of the last 8 Man City away games and this looks attractive at (2.60). Both teams to score is a solid call with it featuring 10 times in both sides last 15 home and away games, also 4 from 5 for WBA and 7 from 10 for City against similar rated teams. Both Teams to Score (1.85) 

Trade Zone Value  

1st Goal Before 25 Mins (1.85) 

BetsLayer Value Highlight 

Both teams to score (1.85) 

STOKE v ASTON VILLA

Will be added Boxing day morning