BLACKBURN v WEST BROM
Stats Analysis
The ratings are suggesting that there is no real value in backing Blackburn to win this game however they do have a very good record at home to low rated sides which reads W5 D3 L2. Blackburn can be backed at (2.4). If you do fancy Blackburn to do well then dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals makes sense as 4 of their last 5 home victories have come via this margin as has 4 of West Brom's last 7 away defeats to low rated sides.
The draw can be backed at (3.50) and this offers some good value and is certainly an option to consider
West Brom can be backed at (3.30) and this offers some value. However if you do fancy West Brom to do well then you may want to keep the draw on side and West Brom can be backed on the Asian handicap +0 goals (2.25)
There have been +2.5 goals in 5 of the last 7 Blackburn home matches and they have conceded 2 or more goals in 6 of the last 7 games (4 from the last 4 in the league). There has also been +2.5 goals in 10 of the last 13 of WBA’s away games under Roy Hodgson (7 of the last 9 against low rated sides). Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.73) and looks a strong option.
BetsLayer Value Highlight
The draw (3.50)
EVERTON v NORWICH
Stats Analysis
Everton have lost 8 of the last 14 league matches and have won just 6 of 20 home fixtures when conceding. Norwich have scored in 8 out of 8 league matches. The ratings are suggesting there is not much value in Evertons current price (1.65), dutching the Everton win by the 1 or 2 goal margin would seem to make more sense as all 14 of Everton's last 14 home victories have been by this margin as has 3 of Norwich's last 4 away defeats (2.10)
The draw can be backed at (4.00) and this looks to offer value given the form of both sides.
Norwich can be backed at (6.00) and this looks to offer a small amount of value. If you do fancy Norwich to do well then you could certainly be best keeping the draw on side and Norwich can be backed +1 goal at (1.85)
As for goals there are some pretty mixed stats, however looking at Evertons home record this season they have conceded in all 7 home games and 8 of the last 15 both teams have scored and Norwich have scored and conceded in 6 of their opening 7 away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.73) and looks about right. Both teams to score looks more enticing as both teams have scored in 7 of Everton's last 10 home matches to similar rated sides and as already highlighted above both teams have scored in 6 of Norwich's opening 7 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.83)
BetsLayer Value Highlight
FULHAM v BOLTON
Stats Analysis
The ratings are suggesting that there is value in backing Fulham even at a skinny looking (1.67) and indeed Fulham do have a very strong record at home to similar rated sides and this reads W7 D2 L1. Bolton are in very poor form at the moment having lost 5 of their last 6 away games and are presently at the bottom of the table. Bolton haven't won a league game at Fulham since 1992, 12 meetings and since the 3-0 defeat last season have lost 16 of the last 20 Premier League games. Bolton can be backed at (6.00) and this price offers no value and there is nothing in the stats/form that gives this any backing.
The draw is priced at (3.80) and this offers no real value. Bolton have only drawn 1 of their last 15 away games
BetsLayer Value Highlight
Over 2.5 goals (1.91)
NEWCASTLE v SWANSEA
Stats Analysis
Newcastle have won 6 of the last 11 home matches and have won all four home games against bottom-half opponents. Swansea have lost 5 of the last 7 away fixtures this season, with only 2 of their 17 points coming from away games. The ratings are suggesting that there is some good value in backing Newcastle to win this game (1.83).
Swansea are available at (5.00) and this offers no real value. If you do fancy Swansea in this game the best option is certainly to keep the draw on side and Swansea can be backed +0.5 goals (2.10)
The draw is priced at (3.6) which offers no real value given the ratings and strong home bias but should not be fully ignored.
As for goals there are some strong stats for 3 or more. Over 2.5 goals has been seen in 10 of Newcastle's last 15 home games and in 5 of Swansea's opening 7 away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.85) and looks a solid option. Over 3.5 goals could also be an option and has been seen in 4 of Newcastle's last 7 home games to low rated sides and this has also been the total in 5 of Swansea's opening 7 away games. Over 3.5 goals can be backed at (3.25). With the above stats on goals then Both teams to score has to be considered and both teams have scored in 11 of Newcastle's last 15 home matches and in 4 of Swansea's opening 7 away games. Swansea have however scored only 4 goals against sides in the top half of the table. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.80)
BetsLayer Value Highlight
Over 2.5 goals (1.85)
WOLVES v STOKE
Stats Analysis
The ratings are very much inline with whats available. Wolves have a very strong home record to similar rated sides which reads W5 D3 L2. Wolves can be backed at (2.50). It could pay to keep the draw on side and a decent alternative to the win is the Asian Handicap +0 goal at (1.84).Wolves have had W/W doubles in 7 of the last 15 home matches against similar rated sides while Stoke have had L/Ls in 13 of the last 26 away fixtures (5 of the last 8 against low rated sides) so for a longer odds bet this is available at (4.8)
Stoke have had a terrible run away from home winning only 2 from the last 15 with 10 loses. Stoke are priced at (3.00) and this is priced about right and despite Stokes recent away performances they do have a decent record away to low rated sides which reads W4 D4 L2
The draw can be backed at (3.30) and holds little value, although it does still offer some attraction
As for goals the stats are very skewed, with strong home stats balanced against week away, this is also true of Both teams to score even though seen in the last 4 Wolves home games. There has been a goal scored before the 28th minute in 10 of Wolves last 15 home matches and in 9 of Stoke's last 11 away games. The first goal of the game to be scored before 28 minutes can be backed at Evens (2.00).
BetsLayer Value Highlight
First goal of the game to be scored before 28 minutes (2.00)
WIGAN v CHELSEA (Saturday 17:30 ESPN)
Stats Analysis
The ratings are suggesting that there is no real value in Chelsea's current price (1.44) Chelsea do however have an excellent record at Wigan having won the head to head in five of their six league trips to Wigan. Wigan though have only lost 4 of their last 10 at home to top rated sides, but do look to be struggling at home.Wigan can be backed at (8.50) and this looks to offer small value. However as we have seen when playing top rated sides they can be a surprise package. If you do fancy Wigan to spring a shock you are best hoping they have one of their good days and they can be backed on the Asian Handicap +1.25 goals at (2.05).
Wigan have had HT/FT L/L in 4 of the 5 home matches and Chelsea have had W/W in 3 of the last 6 away matches (6 of the last 10 against low rated sides). Chelsea/Chelsea HT/FT is available at (2.1)
The draw can be backed at (4.60) and this looks to offer value but not much appeal given Wigan's home form.
As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more, but at (1.65) for Over 2.5 goals it offers little attraction. Over 3.5 goals looks to have some appeal as this has been seen in 7 of Wigan's last 10 home games to top rated sides and in 5 of Chelsea's last 8 away at low rated sides. Over 3.5 goals can be backed at (2.65)
BetsLayer Value Highlight
Chelsea/Chelsea HT/FT (2.1)
No comments:
Post a Comment