ARSENAL v CHELSEA (Saturday 12:45pm Sky Sports 1)
Stats Analysis
Arsenal (2.10) looks to hold some value especially against a tired Chelsea side with changes expected. If you do fancy Arsenal it makes sense to Dutch to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.40) 5 of Arsenal's last 6 home victories to similar opposition have come via this margin. Chelsea have not lost by more than 2 goals away from home in their last 10 defeats.
The Draw (3.50) Offers some value and must be considered in a game where neither side can afford to lose
Chelsea at (3.90) doesn't look to hold any value, if you do fancy them to have recovered from the Barcelona victory, go with +0.50 Goals on the Asian Handicap at (1.90) but this holds no great value given Chelsea's last 10 away performances against similar opposition, where this bet would have won 4 times.
As for goals Over 2.5 Goals is available at (1.88) having featured in 5 of Arsenal last 10 home games against similar sides also in 7 of Chelsea's last 10 away games to similar opponents. So whilst not holding much value should definitely be considered in a game with either a tiring or changed Chelsea side.
Both teams to score again doesn't hold much value but is considered at (1.67) having featured in 6 of Arsenal's last 9 home games to similar opponents also in 8 of Chelsea's last 10 away games to similar opposition.
Finally the Half Time Draw at (2.25) looks good value having featured in 8 of Arsenal's last 10 home games against similar opponents also featured in 6 of Chelsea's last 10 away games.
BetsLayer Value Highlight
Half Time Draw (2.25)
Stats Analysis
QPR are priced at (4.00) which holds no value and is affected by the must win nature of the game. If you do fancy QPR it makes more sense to keep the draw on side and back +0.50 goals at (2.00) which offers value given both sides form against similar opposition.
The Draw is available at (3.75) which looks priced with some small value and certainly is an option in another game where both sides cannot afford to lose for very different reasons.
Spurs (2.00) offers value but beware of both sides recent form against similar opposition with only 4 wins in the last 10 for Spurs. Another option is to Dutch Spurs to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.30) Spurs have won all 6 of their last 6 away victories by this margin also QPR have lost all 6 of their last 6 home defeats by the same margin.
As for goals there doesn't appear to be any value in the Over/Under market with Over 2.5 priced at (1.73). Both teams to score (1.75) holds some value having featured in 11 of QPR's last 15 home games also in 8 of Spurs last 10 away games against similar opposition.
1st Half Over 1.5 at (3.00) could hold some decent value having featured in 6 of QPR's last 14 home games
also in 7 of Spurs last 10 away games against similar sides.
Finally the Half Time Draw at (2.30) holds some good value having featured in 3 of QPR's last 5 home games against similar opponents also in 8 of Spurs last 12 away games.
BetsLayer Value Highlight
QPR +0.50 goals (2.00)
QPR +0.50 goals (2.00)
BetsLayer Non-TV Value Highlights
Blackburn v Norwich - 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals (2.60)
Fulham v Wigan - The Draw (3.75)
Bolton v Swansea - Half Time Draw (2.20)
Aston Villa v Sunderland - No goal after 75 mins (1.91)
Newcastle v Stoke - Dutch Newcastle to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.14)
Blackburn v Norwich - 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals (2.60)
Fulham v Wigan - The Draw (3.75)
Bolton v Swansea - Half Time Draw (2.20)
Aston Villa v Sunderland - No goal after 75 mins (1.91)
Newcastle v Stoke - Dutch Newcastle to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.14)
No comments:
Post a Comment