Friday, 13 January 2012

Premier League Betting Value (January 14th)


ASTON VILLA v EVERTON

Stats Analysis

Aston Villa are available at (2.50) to win this game and this offers small value. There is though quite a strong draw bias to this game and if you do fancy Villa to do well then you are best keeping the draw on side and Aston villa can be backed  on the Asian Handicap +0 goals at (1.83). The draw can be backed at (3.40)

Everton can be backed at (3.00) and this does not offer much value. If you do fancy Everton to win then it makes sense to keep the draw on side and they can be backed +0 goals at (2.10).

As for goals there is a definite bias to 2 or less, there has been -2.5 goals in 11 of the last 15 Aston Villa home matches and in 10 of the last 13 Everton away matches. However at (1.65) this looks about its money. Despite the low goal count both teams to score looks a reasonable proposition as both teams have scored in 6 of 10 of both sides respective home & away games to similar rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.95).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Aston Villa Asian Handicap +0 goals at (1.83)

BLACKBURN v FULHAM

Stats Analysis

Blackburn can be backed at (2.80) to win this game and this offers no real value. If you do fancy Blackburn to do well then your best option is to keep the draw on side and Blackburn can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0 goals at (2.05). The draw can be backed at (3.40) which must be considered although doesn't hold much value.

Fulham are available (2.62) and this looks to offer reasonable value. However we would suggest keeping the draw on side and Fulham can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0 goals at (1.92).

As for goals there is a bias to 2 or less, which has been seen in 6 of the last 10 Blackburn home games against similar opposition and in 12 of 15 Fulham away games and in 8 of the last 10 against similar rated sides. Under 2.5 goals (1.91) which looks reasonable but it should be highlighted that 8 of the last 10 Blackburn home games have been Over 2.5. Both Teams to Score again looks a little mixed with it featuring in only 2 of the last 10 Fulham away games against similar rated sides but in 9 of the last 15 Blackburn home games and 5 from 10 against similar rated sides. No Both teams to Score (2.20)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Fulham Asian Handicap +0 goals at (1.92)

CHELSEA v SUNDERLAND

Stats Analysis

The ratings are very much in line with what the bookmakers are offering and Chelsea can be backed at (1.36) to win this game. Dutching the Chelsea victory by 1 or 2 looks of some appeal as 15 of Chelsea's last 20 home victories have come via this margin as have 11 of Sunderland’s last 13 away defeats.  Dutching the Chelsea victory by 1 or 2 goals at (1.94). Chelsea have won 15 of the last 20 home matches against similar rated teams while Sunderland have had L/L double results in 7 of the last 10 away matches against top rated teams. Chelsea HT/FT (2.15)

 If you think Sunderland can earn another 3 points at the bridge, following last seasons 0-3 shocker, then they can be backed at (10.50) which offers a price which is about right to the ratings. If you do fancy Sunderland there are certainly worse bets than on the Asian Handicap they can be backed +1.5 goals at (1.92). The draw is available at (5.00) and this again looks about right.

As for goals there is bias to 3 or more, given the fact that Chelsea have conceded in 9 of their opening 10 home games and there have been 3 or more goals in 13 of the last 15 home games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.65) which looks tight. Given the skew towards goals then Both teams to score certainly looks to offer some value as both teams have scored in 11 of Chelsea's last 12 home games and Sunderlands have scored 7 goals in their last 2 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.95).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutching the Chelsea victory by 1 or 2 goals at (1.94)

LIVERPOOL v STOKE

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is no value in backing Liverpool to win at (1.44). Dutching Liverpool to win by 1 or 2 goals could be an alternative as 6 of Liverpool's last 7 victories to similar rated sides have come via this margin. Dutching the Liverpool victory by 1 or 2 goals at (1.92). Another option if backing Liverpool is to win to nil. Liverpool have won 5 of their last 9 victories at home to similar rated sides to nil and Stoke have lost 9 of their last 11 away defeats to similar rated sides to nil.  Liverpool can be backed to win to nil at (2.20).
 
Stoke can be backed at (9.00) and this offers value. If you do fancy Stoke to do well then your best option is certainly to back them on the Asian handicap and they can be backed +1.25 goals at (1.90). The draw can be backed at (4.50) and this must be considered given Liverpool's home form with 5 draws in the last 7 home games.

As for goals there is certainly a bias to 2 or under and this has been seen in 7 of Stokes last 8 away at similar rated sides. This has also been seen in 7 of Liverpool's opening 10 home games. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.00).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Liverpool win to nil at (2.20)

MANCHESTER UNITED v BOLTON

Stats Analysis

The ratings are pretty near in line and in truth there is no value in backing Manchester United to win this game at (1.17), especially given their last home performance against a botton 3 side and mounting injuries.

The draw can be backed at (8.50) and this offers some value and is an option if you fancy Manchester United to struggle. Bolton can be backed at (21.00) and again this offers no real appeal given both sides recent record against similar opposition. If you do fancy Bolton to do well then there could be some sense in the Asian Handicap and they can be backed +2.25 goals at (2.00) Manchester United have won 11 of their last 18 by 2 goals or more (but only 5 were 3+) in the case of Bolton  2 of their last 5 defeats were by 2 goals or more.

As for goals you have to say there is some value in backing under 2.5 goals as this has been seen in 6 of Bolton's last 10 away to top rated sides and in 5 of Manchester United's last 10 home to similar rated sides. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (3.25). The 2nd half has been the highest scoring half in 7 of Manchester United's last 10 at home to low rated sides and in 4 of Bolton's last 5 away to top rated sides. The 2nd half to be the highest scoring can be backed at (2.10).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Under 2.5 goals (3.25)

SPURS v WOLVES

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting there is not much value in backing Spurs to win this game and although they are showing some good recent form they do occasionally stumble against sides they are expected to beat, they have drawn 3 and lost 1 of their previous 10 home games against similar opposition. Spurs can be backed at (1.30). If you do fancy Spurs to do well then the best option is to dutch them to win by 1 or 2 goals. 7 of Spurs last 9 home victories have come by 1 or 2 goal. Wolves have also seen this margin in 8 of their last 10 away defeats to top rated sides. Dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals at (2.00).

Wolves are priced at (13.00) and this offers some value however if you do think Wolves will do well then there is value on the Asian Handicap. Wolves can be backed +1.50 goals at (2.10). The draw is available at (5.50) which holds some value but little appeal in truth.

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more however the (1.53) makes for no appeal. Both teams to score looks more tempting and this can be backed at (1.95). This looks value as Both teams have scored in 10 of Spurs last 15 at home and 9 of Wolves last 14 away game.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutch Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals (2.00)

WEST BROM v NORWICH

Stats Analysis

Again the ratings are very much in line with whats on offer and West Brom can be backed at Evens (2.00). If you do fancy West Brom to win then dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals certainly is an option as all 10 of West Brom's  last 10 home victories have come via this margin. Dutching the West Brom victory by 1 or 2 goals at (2.30)

Norwich can be backed at (4.00) which doesn't hold much value. If you do fancy Norwich to do well then you are certainly best keeping the draw on side and Norwich can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at (1.95) The draw can be backed at (3.50) and looks a good option in a tough game to call.

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more. Over 2.5 goals have been seen in 5 of West Brom's previous 7 home games to similar rated sides and in 6 of Norwich's last 9 away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.83). Both teams to score looks a solid option as both teams have scored in 12 of Norwich's last 15 away games and in all 3 of their away encounters against similar rated opposition. In the case of West Brom both teams have scored in 6 of their last 7 home games to similar rated sides. Both Teams to Score (1.70)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The Draw (3.50)

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