Premier League Betting Value Analysis (January 21st)

NORWICH v CHELSEA
Stats Analysis

There is some good value in Norwich's price here (6.00) although they have lost at home against the two other top 6 sides that have visited Carrow road this season. The draw is priced at (4.00) and this offers some reasonable value and is certainly worth serious consideration.

Chelsea can be backed at (1.67) and this offers no real value. If you do fancy Chelsea to win then dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals certainly makes sense as 5 of their last 7 away victories have been via this margin as has all 3 of Norwich's home defeats this season.Dutching the Chelsea win by 1 or 2 goals (2.10)

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more, Norwich have conceded in every home game this season so far and there have been 3 or more goals in 11 of their last 15 home games and Both teams have scored in 12 of their last 15 home games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.62) and this looks a little short to get involved. Both teams to score is priced at (1.67) and again this offers no real value.

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Chelsea win by 1 or 2 goals (2.10)

  

QPR v WIGAN

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in QPRs current price. QPR can be backed at Evens (2.00). 

Wigan can be backed at (4.20) and this offers some good value especially when you consider that QPR have only won 1 home game this season. If you do fancy Wigan to do well then you are certainly best keeping the draw on side and Wigan can be backed +0.25 goals on the Asian Handicap at (2.16).The draw can be backed at (3.40) and although this offers little value it should certainly be given some serious consideration.

As for goals there are mixed stats around, but there has been 3 or more goals in 7 of Wigan's last 10 away games at similar rated sides. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.05) which seems reasonable. Both teams to score is a good option as both teams have scored in 6 of Wigan's last 7 away to similar rated sides and in 6 of QPR's last 8 home games. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.91).

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Both teams to score (1.91)

STOKE v WEST BROM

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Stoke to win this game and their recent home record against similar rated sides is very ordinary at W3 D3 L4. Stoke can be backed at (1.91). The draw is priced at (3.50) and this looks to offer some good value.

West Brom are priced at (4.33) and this offers some value given West Brom's recent away record to similar rated sides where they are unbeaten in 6 matches. If you do fancy West Brom to do well here then it would make sense to keep the draw on side and back +0.5 goals on the Asian Handicap at (2.00) 

As for goals there is certainly a bias to 3 or more, West Brom's recent away form has seen 12 of their last 15 away games with 3 or more goals as has 6 of their last 9 away to similar rated sides. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at Evens (2.00). Both teams to score looks an option but this is priced about right at (1.80)

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The draw (3.50) 

SUNDERLAND v SWANSEA

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Sunderland to win this match. However they have improved since Martin O’Neil took over. Sunderland can be backed at (1.91). If you do fancy Sunderland dutching the victory by 1 or 2 goals makes some sense and both of Sunderland's victories at home to similar rated sides have come via this margin. Dutching the Sunderland victory by 1 or 2 goals (2.20)

Swansea are priced at (4.75) and this looks to offer good value. However if you do fancy Swansea to do well then it would pay to keep the draw on side and Swansea can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at (2.00). The draw can be backed at (3.50) and this offers some value.

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more goals and this has been seen in  10 of Sunderland's last 14 home games and in 8 of their last 10 at home to similar rated  sides. In the case of Swansea it has been seen in 5 of their opening 10 away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.20) and this looks to offer good value. Both teams have scored in 7 of the last 10 Sunderland games against similar opposition and this looks to hold some value at (2.02).

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The draw (3.50)

WOLVES v ASTON VILLA

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Wolves to win this game and they have only won 2 of their last 10 at home to similar rated sides and Aston Villa have only lost 1 of their last 10 away to similar rated sides. Wolves can be backed at (2.50). If you do fancy Wolves to do well then I would certainly suggest keeping the draw on side and backing on the Asian Handicap +0 goals at (1.85)

Aston Villa can be backed at (2.90) and this price offers some value and is worth consideration. However there is a strong Draw bias to this game and we would certainly want to keep this on our side and Aston Villa can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0 goals at (2.10). The draw is value priced at (3.40)

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more and this has been seen in 12 of Wolves last 15 home games and in 10 of Aston Villa's last 15 away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.00). Both teams to score has featured in 11 of the last 15 home and away games and can be backed at a reasonable (1.85).

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The draw (3.40)

EVERTON v BLACKBURN

Stats Analysis

The ratings look about right although they do suggest their maybe some small value in opposing Everton. Everton can be backed at (1.53). If you do fancy Everton to win this game then the best option is to dutch them to win by 1 or 2 goals as this has been the winning margin in all 7 of Everton's last 7 home victories and in 5 of Blackburn's last 6 away defeats. Dutching the Everton victory by 1 or 2 goals at (2.04)

Blackburn can be backed at (7.50) and this is priced correctly. If you do fancy Blackburn to do well here then you are best keeping the draw on side and backing +1 goal on the Asian Handicap at (2.05). The draw can be backed at (4.00) and this offers some value.

As far as goals are concerned then the Overs / Unders market is priced fairly with Over 2.5 goals priced at (1.91). Both teams to score is a better option as both teams have scored in 6 of Everton's last 10 at home to similar rated sides  in 8 of Blackburn's last 10 away games to similar rated sides. Both teams to score looks a strong bet at (1.96)

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Both teams to score (1.96)

FULHAM v NEWCASTLE

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is no real value in backing Fulham and they can be backed at (2.10). However it should be remembered that they do have a very impressive record at home to similar rated sides which reads W7 D2 L1. If you want to improve the value dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals is probably the best option as this has been the margin of victory in 6 of the last 7 home victories against similar rated sides and it has also been the margin of defeat in all 3 of Newcastle's away defeats this season. Dutching the Fulham win by 1 or 2 goals at (2.50).

Newcastle are available at (3.90) and this offers some good value. There is though a strong draw bias, looking to keep this on side and Newcastle can be backed +0.5 goals on the Asian Handicap at (1.91). The draw is priced at (3.40) and this offers some value. 

As for goals, there looks to be some value in 3 or more, this has been seen in 11 of the last 15 Fulham home games and in 8 of the last 15 Newcastle away games, its a little more patchy on rated form but still looks an option at (2.20). Both Teams to score looks mixed and priced about right with value towards NO on rated form, having only been seen in 4 from 10 home games and 3 from 8 away games. No on both teams to score (2.00).

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The draw (3.40)

BOLTON v LIVERPOOL

Stats Analysis

The ratings are very close to what's available and Liverpool do have a very strong record at the Reebok having won 4 of the last 5 encounters. Liverpool can be backed at 4/6 (1.67). If you want to improve on the Liverpool price then dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals is certainly an option as 6 of Liverpool's last 7 away victories and 8 of Bolton's last 10 home defeats have come via this margin. Dutching Liverpool to win by 1 or 2 goals at (2.04).

Bolton can be backed at (6.50) and this offers not much value. If you do fancy Bolton to do well then you are best keeping the draw on side and Bolton can be backed +1 goal on the Asian Handicap at (1.82). The draw is priced at (3.80) and this offers some good value.

As for goals there are some mixed stats coming out of this game. There is some value in backing Under 2.5 goals as this has been seen in 10 of Liverpool's last 15 away games. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.00). The No on Both teams to score looks of interest as both teams have scored in only 4 of Liverpool's last 15 away games. Also Bolton have lost 5 of their last 8 home defeats to similar rated sides to nil. The No on both teams to score can be backed at (1.95)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Under 2.5 goals (2.00)