Premier League Betting Value Analysis (January 31st)

SWANSEA v CHELSEA

Stats Analysis 

Looking at the ratings there is good value about Swansea at (4.80), they have a good home record including a strong win against Arsenal in their last home game and have lost only 1 in their 11 Premier League home games. If you do fancy Swansea to do well it would certainly make sense to back on the Asian Handicap at +0.5 goals which keeps the draw on side, available at (2.00). The draw is available at (3.60) and in a game with a decent draw bias this must be considered, Swansea have drawn 5 of their 11 home games.

As Swansea are generally strong at home and with a low scoring bias, another market maybe worth looking at is the Half time market. Swansea have drawn the first half in 6 of their 11 home games (5 of which were 0-0) and Chelsea have drawn 8 from 15 away including the last 4 (6 of the 8 were 0-0). The HT draw is available at (2.25) and 0-0 as the HT score is available at (3.00).

There is no real value about Chelsea's price here at (1.88), their record at similar rated sides holds only 3 wins from the last 10 games and they have only won 6 from the last 15 away games. As stated above Swansea have lost only 1 of their 11 home games. 

Analysing the goals markets, there is strong bias to -2.5 goals, this has featured in 8 of Swansea's 11 home games and 8 from Chelsea's last 15 away, with 7 from the last 10 looking at rated form. Under 2.5 goals is available at (1.93) and looks a good value price. Both teams to score looks mixed with only featuring in 4 from Swansea's 11 home games but 9 from the last 15 Chelsea away games (4 from the last 10 against similar rated teams). Both Teams to Score (1.91) offers no value and though there is value in the NO its not really of interest as there are better options available such as the Under 2.5 above.

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Under 2.5 goals is available at (1.93)

SPURS v WIGAN

Stats Analysis

The ratings look about right when looking at the Spurs price (1.25), a word of caution though is that their home form against similar rated opposition is not perfect with a record of W5 D4 L1.

If you do think Spurs will win but don't fancy such short odds Dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals makes some sense as 7 of Spurs last 9 home victories and 4 of Spurs last 5 home victories to similar opposition have come via this margin as well as 3 of the last 5 Wigan defeats against top rated sides. Dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals at (2.05).

Wigan are priced at (15.00) and this again looks priced about right. If you do fancy Wigan to do well then your best option is certainly to back them on the Asian Handicap +1.75 goals at (2.10).

Spurs have had -2.5 goals in 6 of the last 7 home matches and in 9 of the last 12 home games against similar opposition. Only 5 from the last 10 Wigan away games against top rated sides have featured 3 or more goals. Under 2.5 looks value at (2.50). No on both teams to score looks an option at (1.80) as Wigan have scored only once in the last 10 away against similar opposition.

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Dutch Spurs to win by 1 or 2 goals at (2.05) 

WOLVES v LIVERPOOL

Stats Analysis

Wolves are priced at (5.50) and although this offers some small value and they have won 3 from the last 10 at home to similar opposition although all took place last season. However if you expect them to do well here then they can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.75 goals at (1.91). This means that should Wolves lose by the single goal then you would receive half of your stake back.

The ratings again look about right for Liverpool to win here, priced at (1.73). They do though have a fairly poor record away at similar opposition, winning only 1 of the last 10. The draw can be backed at (3.80) and this offers some value when looking at each sides form.

As for goals, the markets look very mixed, there has been +2.5 goals in 12 of the last 15 home games and in 9 from the last 10 against similar rated sides. For Liverpool its only featured in 6 from the last 15 and 5 from the last 10 against similar opposition. Over 2.5 looks to hold some value at (2.00).

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The draw at (3.80)

EVERTON v MANCHESTER CITY

Stats Analysis

Everton are priced at (4.50) and this looks to offer no real value. However Everton do have a good record at home to top rated sides with 4 wins in the last 10. If you do fancy them to do well then it would certainly makes sense to keep the draw on side and back on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at (2.00). The draw can be backed at (3.50) and doesn't really hold any value.

The ratings show that there is some good value in backing Manchester City to win this game at (1.85).

There have been -2.5 goals scored in 7 of the last 10 of Everton’s home matches (3 of the last 3 against top rated sides) and in 5 of the last 8 of Man City’s away games against similar opposition. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.91) and this offers some small value. Both teams to score looks mixed and there is no value in the price at (1.91)

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Manchester City to win (1.85)

MANCHESTER UNITED v STOKE 

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in backing Manchester united to win this game at (1.25), however Stoke have lost 9 from the last 10 against similar opposition and all by HT/FT. Man Utd have had W/Ws in 21 of the last 30 home matches since 2010/2011 with 6 from the last 10 against similar opposition and Stoke have had L/Ls in 9 of the last 10 away games against top rated opposition. Manchester United can be backed at (1.73)to win via the Half Time/Full Time result and this looks to offer some value.

Stoke can be backed at (13.00) and this holds little appeal given their away form in general and at similar opposition.  The draw can be backed at (6.00) and this holds some value but no real attraction.

As for goals there is no real value in the Under/Over markets. One market that could interest is No on both teams to score, Both teams have scored in only 2 of Stoke's last 10 away to top rated sides and in 3 of Manchester United's last 10 at home to similar opposition. NO on both teams to score at (1.85)

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NO on both teams to score at (1.85)