New Years Day Premier League Value (January 1st, 2012)

Happy New Year to anyone who may pop over to read the Betslayer analysis, here's to a great 2012. 
 
WEST BROM v EVERTON

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting that there is some value in backing West Brom to win (2.63) they do have a decent home record to similar rated sides which reads W5 D1 L4. There is a strong draw bias to this game and the draw is value at (3.40). If you do fancy West Brom to do well then keeping the draw on side and backing on the Asian Handicap + 0 goals at (1.91) makes sense.

Everton can be backed at (2.80) this price does not really offer much value but Everton do have a reasonable record away to similar rated sides which reads W3 D4 L3. If you do fancy Everton to do well then again you are best keeping the draw on side and Everton can be backed at +0 goals on the Asian Handicap at (2.00)

As for goals there is value in 3 or more, there has been +2.5 goals in 8 of the last 11 WBA home matches against similar rated teams and infact +3.5 goals in 5 of the last 10 WBA such matches. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.12). Both teams to score looks of interest but is priced with not much value as both teams have scored in 6 of West Brom's last 10 home games to similar rated sides and in 4 of Everton's last 8 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.83)

Trade Zone Value

Early goals could feature in this game. There has been a goal scored before 25 minutes in 12 of West Brom's last 16 home games and in 7 of Everton's last 10 away to similar rated sides. The first goal of the game to be scored before 25 Minutes can be backed at (2.00).

BetsLayer Value Highlight 

The Draw (3.4)

SUNDERLAND v MAN CITY

Stats Analysis

Sunderland can be backed at (7.00) and this does not make for much appeal. However with Martin O'Neill in charge Sunderland may be in a better position to do well. If you do fancy Sunderland then they can be backed on the Asian handicap +1 goal at (2.08). The draw is priced at (4.40) and this offers no real value.

Manchester City have won 5 of the last 8 away matches against similar rated sides teams, the ratings are suggesting that even at (1.53) Manchester City are still value to win this game. If you do fancy them to win this game then dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals looks a good option as Sunderland could be hard to break down. Sunderland have lost 12 of the last 13 home defeats by the 1 or 2 goal margin and Manchester City have won 6 of their last 8 away victories against similar rated sides by this margin. Dutching Manchester City to win by 1 or 2 goals pays (2.04).

As for goals there are some mixed stats here and although it points to 3 or more goals this offers no real value at (1.73). Indeed when Sunderland have hosted top rated sides there has only been 3 or more goals scored in 3 of the 10 matches. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.20) and looks to offer value. Both teams to score looks reasonable as both teams have scored in 10 of Sunderland's last 15 home games and in 9 of Manchester Citys last 15 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.83)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutch Manchester City to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.04)

Premier League Betting Value (December 31st)

MANCHESTER UNITED v BLACKBURN

Stats Analysis

The ratings are suggesting there is no value in backing Manchester United to win at (1.17) and this looks a little on the short side even accounting for Manchester Uniteds very impressive W9 D1 L0 record at home to similar rated sides. Manchester United have had W/W double results in 12 of the last 14 home matches against low rated teams. Manchester United HT/FT (1.5). Alternatively Manchester United as the only team to score at (1.73) is not a bad shout, they have won 7 of their last 10 home victories against similar rated sides to nil so this looks an option.

Rovers have lost 11 of 18 Premier League games this season and have lost by two or more goals in 10 of the last 15 trips to top rated teams. Blackburn can be backed at (26.00) and this looks about right. If you do fancy Blackburn to do well then they can be backed on the Asian Handicap +2 goals (2.20). The draw is available at (7.50) and it does offer value, but little attraction.

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more however we would not suggest getting involved in this market as Over 2.5 goals can be  backed at a very short (1.44). Both teams to score looks to offer some value and this can be backed at a resonable looking (2.50). Both teams have scored in 13 of Blackburn's last 15 away games and in 5 of their last 9 away to top rated sides. It has also been seen in 5 of the last 10 against similar rated sides and in 3 of the last 5 at Old Trafford.

The 2nd half has been the highest scoring half in 7 of Manchester United's last 10 at home to similar rated sides and in 5 of Blackburn's last 8 away to top rated sides. The 2nd half to be the highest scoring can be backed at 6/5 (2.20)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The 2nd half to be the highest scoring (2.20)
 
ARSENAL v QPR 

Stats Analysis

Arsenal have won 14 of the last 16 home matches against low rated teams, there is though little value in their price of (1.29). Dutching Arsenal to win by 1 or 2 goals makes some sense as it has been the margin in 6 of the last 8 home victories against low rated sides. Arsenal to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.00)

QPR have lost 5 of their 9 away matches, there though value in their price of (15.00). The Draw is (6.00) and also offers value but not really much attraction. If you do fancy QPR then backing on the Asian Handicap +2 goals makes sense at (1.85).

As for goals there is bias to 2 or less, this has been the outcome in 10 of the last 15 Arsenal home games and in 5 of their last 10 against similar rated sides, also in 2 of the 3 for QPR against similar rated sides. There looks good value about the price. Under 2.5 goals (2.70). Both teams to score looks unlikely, featuring in only 6 of the last 15 Arsenal home games an 4 from 10 against similar rated teams. No on Both Teams to score (1.9)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

No on Both Teams to score (1.9)

BOLTON v WOLVES

Stats Analysis

Bolton have scored first in 9 of the last 12 home matches against similar rated team, but in their odds to win there is very little value (2.25)

Wolves have lost 12 of the last 19 away matches. There is though value in their price to win this game (3.50). There is good value in the draw at (3.60) in a game neither team can afford to lose.

As for goals there are strong stats for 3 or more, this has been seen in 10 of the last 15 home games and in 9 of the last 15 away games. Over 2.5 goals (1.85)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals (1.85)

CHELSEA v ASTON VILLA

Stats Analysis

Chelsea have won 12 of the last 16 home matches, but there is no value about their price at (1.29)

Aston Villa have lost by two or more goals in 6 of their last 8 trips to top rated teams. There is value about their price at (13.00). The draw is available at (6.00) and offers value.

As for goals there is definite bias to 3 or more, having been seen in 12 of the last 15 home games and 9 from 15 away games, 9 from 10 against top rated sides. Overs is value at (1.67). Both teams to score looks great value as this has been the outcome in 11 from 15 for both home and away and also in 7 from the last 10 in both respective home and away against similar rated teams. Both Teams to score (2.10).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Both Teams to score (2.10)

NORWICH v FULHAM

Stats Analysis

Norwich have won 4 of the last 7 home matches and they have scored in 15 of 18 league games. There is some value in their price here (2.75)

Fulham have lost 11 of the last 20 away games when conceding and 9 of 17 away matches against similar rated teams. There is no real value in their price (2.75). The draw is priced at (3.40) and offers some value in what looks a tight game.

As for goals its difficult to assess, there is a bias to 2 or less, but this is mainly down to Fulham who have seen this in 12 of the last 15 away and in 8 of the last 10 away to similar rated sides. Under 2.5 (1.96). Both teams scored in all 4 of Norwich's games against similar rated teams and 5 of the last 10 Fulham away matches against similar rated sides, there doesn't look much value in the price at (1.77) though.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The draw at (3.40) 

STOKE v WIGAN

Stats Analysis

Stoke have scored first in 12 of 15 home matches against low rated teams, the ratings show there is not much value in Stokes current price (1.67). If you do fancy Stoke to win then dutching thrm to win by 1 or 2 goals makes sense as 4 of their last 5 home victories has been by this margin. Stoke to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.05)

Wigan have lost 7 of the last 8 away matches against top-half teams. There is though value in their price of (5.50), If you do fancy Wigan then it might be wise to keep the draw onside on the Asian Handicap + 0.5 (2.15). The draw is priced at a value (3.80)

As for goals there doesn't seem to be any standout stats, the price available is about right. Under 2.5 (1.95). Both teams to score looks a little more attractive, this has been seen in 8 of the last 15 home games and in 7 of Wigan's last 10 away against similar rated sides. Both teams to score (1.9)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Stoke to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.05)

SWANSEA v SPURS

Stats Analysis 

Swansea have the best home defensive record in the division with just three goals conceded, but coming up against a Spurs side in brilliant form will certainly test their home record. They are though value (5.50) to win this game.

Victory for Spurs would equal their record total away wins in a Premier League season of seven, their price to win this game is about right (1.72). The Draw at (3.8) is no real value, but could be considered. Spurs have drawn the first half in 6 of their 8 away matches against similar rated teams.(2.40)

There have been -2.5 goals in 7 of the 9 Swansea home matches, and there has been Over 2.5 goals in only 4 of Spurs last 10 away games to similar rated sides. Under 2.5 goals (1.97). 

BetsLayer Value Highlight 

Under 2.5 goals (1.97)

Liverpool v Newcastle - Premier League Betting Value (Dec 30th)

LIVERPOOL v NEWCASTLE (Friday 19.45 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Liverpool are unbeaten at home this season with three wins and six draws in their nine league games, but they have had too many home draws against inferior oppsition. The ratings are suggesting that there is not much value in their current price at (1.57). Newcastle are a tough nut to crack away from home and if you do fancy Liverpool to win then the best option is to dutch them to win by 1 or 2 goals, all 3 of Liverpoool's home victories this season have come via this margin as have all 5 of Newcastle's previous 5 away defeats. Dutching the Liverpool win by 1 or 2 goals (2.00).

Newcastle can be backed at (8.00) and this looks to offer good value. If you do fancy Newcastle to do well then the best option is to keep the draw on side and Newcastle can be backed on the Asian Handicap +1 goal at (2.10). The draw is priced at (4.50) and this looks to offer some value especially given Liverpool's recent home form which has seen then draw 5 of their last 6 games at home.

As for goals, there certainly seems some value in backing 2 or less, as this has been seen in 9 of Liverpool's last 15 home games and in 5 from 9 Newcastle aways + 4 of Newcastle's last 5 away to similar rated sides. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.00). Both teams to score is an option given Liverpool's recent form where both teams have found the net in 7 of their last 9 home games and in 6 of Newcastle's last 7 away games. Both teams to score (2.10)

Trade Zone Value 

There has been a goal scored after 74 minutes in only 3 of Liverpool's last 10 at home to similar rated sides and in only 1 of Newcastle's last 6 away to similar rated sides. The last goal of the game to be scored before 74 minutes (1.91).

BetsLayer Value Highlight 

Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.00)

Boxing Day (cont) + Premier League Betting Value (December 27th)

STOKE v ASTON VILLA (Monday 19.45 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Stoke occupy their best position at Christmas in 37 years, the ratings show that there isn't much value in backing Stoke to win this game. They do though have an excellent record at home to similar rated sides which reads W8 D0 L2. Stoke to win (2.05).

There is a fairly strong draw bias to this game and the draw can be backed at (3.50). Aston Villa can be backed at (4.20) and this looks to offer value, Alex McLeish's side have though taken just eight points from the last 30 available and have won just once (v Norwich) in eight games against top-half clubs so far this season. If you do fancy Villa to do well you are certainly best keeping the draw on side and Aston Villa can be backed +0.5 goals on the Asian handicap (2.00).

As for goals there could be some value in backing Over 2.5 goals and this has been seen in 8 of the last 15 Stoke home games and 10 of the last 15 Villa away games. Over 2.5 goals (2.10). The same can be said with both teams to score as both teams have scored in 9 of Stoke's last 15 home games and in 12 of Aston Villa's last 15 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.85)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals (2.10) 

ARSENAL v WOLVES

Stats Analysis

The Gunners have dropped just four points when playing at home this season, there is though no value about their price here at (1.25). If you do fancy Arsenal it could make sense to back them to win by 1 or 2 goals, 7 of the last 9 home wins and 7 from the last 10 against similar rated teams has been by this margin. Arsenal to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.05)

Arsenal have drawn the first half in 6 of the last 8 home matches (6 of 9 against low rated teams) as have Wolves in 4 of the last 8 away games. HT draw is priced at a value (3.00)

Wolves' only away win this term came on the opening day at Blackburn. They are winless in seven subsequent matches. The ratings though suggest that at (15.00) there is value in Wolves price here. If you do think Wolves can do well here, it could certainly pay to back the +2 goals on the Asian Handicap market at (1.9). There is good value about the draw at (6.5) but with both sides records against similar rated sides this doesn't hold much attraction.

As for goals, there is a slight bias to 3 or more, this has featured in 5 of Arsenal's last 10 against similar rated sides and 9 of the last 15 Wolves away games, 6 from 10 against similar rated sides. Overs at (1.59) though offers no value and infact is bringing Unders into good value territory, maybe useful for time decay trading inrunning. Both Teams to score looks priced about right (2.00) with it featuring in 50% of each sides rated form.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Arsenal to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.05)

SWANSEA v QPR (Tuesday 17:00 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

All of Swansea's four Premier League wins have come at the Liberty Stadium, Swansea can be backed at (2.10) to win this match and this is priced about right. Swansea have a strong defensive record at the Liberty Stadium and have only conceded in 2 matches of their 8 at home. It may be worth backing them to win to nil (3.25) as QPR have not scored in any of their last 3 visits to Swansea. As an alternative to this Swansea can be backed at (2.62) to keep a clean sheet.

QPR have lost their last three league games and have won just one in eight, three of their four league victories this season have been achieved away from home though. QPR can be backed at (3.80) and this is priced about right. However if you do fancy QPR to do well then you are certainly best keeping the draw on your side and QPR can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.25 goals at (2.17). The draw is priced at (3.40) is about right, but should be considered.

As for goals there is a bias to 2 goals or under. There have been -2.5 goals in 6 of the 8 Swansea home matches. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.80) No on Both teams to score as above could be good selection at odds of (2.00).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

No on Both Teams to score (2.00)

NORWICH v SPURS (Tuesday 19:30 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Norwich are unbeaten in their last three league games. Norwich are priced at (5.00) and this looks to offer some value. If you do fancy Norwich to do well then your best option is to keep the draw on side and back them +0.5 goals on the Asian Handicap at (2.17). The draw can be backed at (3.80) and this offers some good value.

Spurs are on a good run at the moment and have won 5 of their last 7 away matches. Spurs can be backed at (1.80) to win this match and this doesn't offer much value. If you do fancy Spurs to win dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals would make sense as all 7 of Spurs last 7 away victories have come via this margin as has both of Norwich's home defeats this season. Dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals (2.20)

There have been +2.5 goals in 6 of the last 8 Norwich home matches and in 8 of the last 11 Spurs away matches. Overs is available at a small but still value price (1.67). Both teams have scored in each of Norwich’s last ten matches and have scored in 13 of Norwich's last 15 home games and in 7 of Spurs last 10 away to low rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at a still value (1.67)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutch the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals (2.20)

Boxing Day Premier League Betting Value (December 26th)

MERRY CHRISTMAS to all, hope you all have a great time and that we can find some value to pay for the food and festive drinks!


CHELSEA v FULHAM

Stats Analysis

Chelsea have won 12 of the last 15 home matches, but are no real value to win this game in present form at (1.33)

Fulham have lost 6 of the last 8 away matches against top rated teams and Martin Jol's side have scored the fewest away goals in the Premier League this season, netting only four times in eight matches. At (12.00) however the ratings say there is some slim value in backing Fulham. The draw (5.00) is strong value at these odds if you do fancy Chelsea to slip up again.

Chelsea have Over 2.5 goals 13 of the last 15 home matches and 6 of the last 8 home matches against similar rated sides. Fulham have Over 2.5 goals in 5 of the last 10 matches at top rated sides. Over 2.5 goals is available at (1.75) and at this price doesn't offer much value. Both teams scored in 11 of the last 15 home matches and in 5 of the last 10 away to similar rated sides so at (2.10) this looks to be some value.

Trade Zone Value
Goal after 75th min    (1.91)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Goal after 75th min    (1.91)

LIVERPOOL v BLACKBURN

Stats Analysis

Liverpool have lost just 1 of the last 12 in the league and have conceded just 13 goals this season, the lowest in the league. They have kept clean sheets in their last three matches. The odds are about right at (1.30). If you do fancy the home side it makes sense to back Liverpool to win by 1 or 2 goals as this has been the result in all their home wins this season and Blacburn's last 6 away defeats (2.00)

Blackburn haven't won away from home this season and have lost four of their last five Premier League games, including the last three. They are no value at (13.00) to win this game. If you do fancy Blackburn it could be worth backing on the Asian Handicap +2 goals which has only been beaten 2 in their last 10 away to similar rated sides. Blackburn +2 goals (2.00). The draw at (5.50) is reasonable value, especially given that Liverpool have drawn 4 of the last 10 at home against similar rated sides.

There are some mixed stats on the over / under and it might worth avoiding these markets. Both teams have scored in 6 of the last 8 of Liverpool’s home matches and also in 8 of the last 8 of Blackburn’s away fixtures (10 of 14 against similar rated sides). Both Teams to score is reasonable value at (2.3).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Liverpool to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.00)

MANCHESTER UNITED v WIGAN

Stats Analysis

Manchester United have the joint-most Premier League clean sheets (8) with Swansea, but there is little value in their price of (1.17). They have had W/W in the HT/FT in 11 of the last 13 against low rated sides while Wigan have had L/Ls in 7 of the last 8 away games against top-three finishers. Manchester United  HT/FT is value priced at (1.6)

Wigan are unbeaten in their last five games (W2, D3) but Manchester United and Wigan have met 13 times, and the Red Devils have won every match.At (21.00) there is little value or attraction about the Latics in this game. If you do fancy Wigan to do well the +2 goals on Asian Handicap at (2.5) looks slight value, although United have started to find their scoring boots in the last few games.

As for the goals there is a very strong bias to 3 or more, against similar rated sides, its been the outcome in 8 of the last 10 for United and in 7 of the last 10 for Wigan, but in general it looks a bit short at (1.5). Sir Alex Ferguson's team have scored at least once in all 26 of their matches (all competitions) this season, The Latics have failed to score in six of their 17 matches. There are mixed stats on the Both Teams to score between general and against similar rated sides, with Wigan only having this outcome once in 10 games against top rated sides. No on Both Teams to Score (1.7)

Trade Zone Value
First Goal after 21st min    (1.91)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

First Goal after 21st min    (1.91)

BOLTON v NEWCASTLE

Stats Analysis

Bolton ended a five-match losing streak by beating Blackburn to climb off the foot of the table, but this will be a test of their staying up credentials. There is little value in their currect price (2.63).

Newcastle are winless in six games (D2, L4). They have only taken one point from four matches in December, but have a decent record against similar rated sides winning 5 from the last 10 away games and at (2.88) offer sound value to win this game. The draw is available at (3.4) which is worth consideration but priced about right. Also if you fancy Newcastle there is value in backing them HT/FT as this has been seen in 3 of their last 4 away wins and in 7 of the last 10 Bolton home games. Newcastle/Newcastle HT/FT (5.50)

There have been +2.5 goals scored in 14 of the last 17 Bolton games, 7 from 10 against similar rated sides (22 of 36 at home under Owen Coyle) and in 9 of  the last 12 of Newcastle’s league fixtures. Over 2.5 is available at (1.75). There looks to be some value in the No on both teams to score, this has been seen in 5 from the last 10 Bolton home games against similar opposition and in 6 of the last 10 Newcastle away against similar opposition. No on Both to Score (2.60).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

No on Both to Score (2.60) 

SUNDERLAND v EVERTON 

Stats Analysis

Sunderland have won just four home league matches in 2011 but they have lost only one of their last six at home. There is no value about their current price (2.40)

Sunderland have been level at HT in 4 of the last 5 home matches (4 of the last 7 against similar rated teams) as have Everton in 5 of the last 8 away games against similar rated sides. HT draw is priced at (2.2). The draw is priced at (3.45) and looks a good option in a game with no stand out stats either way.

All six of Everton's wins this season have come against sides in the bottom half of the table and at (3.10) they are a value call to win this game. It could make sense to keep the draw on side and back them +0 goals on the Asian Handicap at (2.10).

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more, with 12 of Sunderland's last 15 seeing this outcome, the stats are less strong for Everton, but at (2.20) this still offers value. Both teams to score has some mixed stats, again stronger with Sunderland, looking at the rated form, Both teams have scored in only 4 from the last 10 games so the NO looks value priced at (2.10).

  

Trade Zone Value

1st Goal Before 25 Mins (2.00) 

BetsLayer Value Highlight

The Draw (3.45)

WEST BROM v MAN CITY

Stats Analysis

The ratings are showing there is little value in the Man City price (1.5), if you do fancy City to win it could make sense to back them HT/FT as 4 of the last 6 away wins against similar rated sides have been by this result Man City/Man City HT/FT (2.22).

There is value in West Broms price of (7.5) but they have lost 4 of the last 5 when playing at home against top rated sides. There is also some good value in the draw at (4.75). If you do fancy West Brom it makes sense to keep the draw onside and back +1 goal on the Asian Handicap at (2.25)

There is not much value in the over / under 2.5 market at Overs (1.63). At least four goals have been scored in 3 of the last 3 of WBA’s home matches against top-four teams and in 6 of the last 8 Man City away games and this looks attractive at (2.60). Both teams to score is a solid call with it featuring 10 times in both sides last 15 home and away games, also 4 from 5 for WBA and 7 from 10 for City against similar rated teams. Both Teams to Score (1.85) 

Trade Zone Value  

1st Goal Before 25 Mins (1.85) 

BetsLayer Value Highlight 

Both teams to score (1.85) 

STOKE v ASTON VILLA

Will be added Boxing day morning

Spurs v Chelsea Premier League Betting Value (December 22nd)

SPURS v CHELSEA (Thurs 20.00 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Chelsea have not won at White Hart Lane in their last five visits since a 2-0 victory in 2005. Prior to that they had gone 17 league matches undefeated at White Hart Lane, a run that stretched back to August 1987.

Spurs have won 6 out of 6 home matches and 6 of the last 13 home games against top rated teams while Chelsea have lost 5 of 8 away fixtures against top rated sides. Spurs can be backed at (2.80) and this price offers some value. Looking at the ratings there is a strong draw bias to the game and it could pay to keep this on our side and Spurs can be backed on the Asian Handicap -0.25 goals at (2.30). The draw can be backed at (3.50) and this looks to offer good value.

Chelsea are available at (2.75) and this price does not offer much value. If you do fancy Chelsea to do well then you again could be best keeping the draw on side and back Chelsea on the Asian Handicap +0 goals at (2.04)

As for goals there are some mixed stats here and we would probably stay away from the Over Under / Over 2.5 goals market. Both teams to score looks a solid bet with it featuring in both teams last 15 games 9 times, but at (1.62) there isn't much value.

BetsLayer value highlight 

Spurs on the Asian Handicap -0.25 goals at (2.30)

Premier League Betting Value Analysis (21st December)

WIGAN v LIVERPOOL (Tues 20.00 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Wigan have won just once (against QPR) at home all season. However, they have drawn two of their last three at the DW Stadium including the last gasp 1-1 draw against Chelsea.Wigan have also lost just 7 of the last 22 home games against top half sides.Wigan can be backed at (7.50) and this offers some decent value. If you do fancy Wigan to do well then they can be backed on the Asian Handicap +1 goal at (2.02) and this would certainly be your best option and this offers sound value.

The draw can be backed at (4.00) and this offers some reasonable value given how both sides have performed against similar opposition and Wigan's recent form.

Liverpool are looking for a third successive league win for the first time this season. The ratings are suggesting that there is no real value in backing Liverpool at their current price of (1.57) and in truth their record away to low rated sides is not that great and it reads W3 D3 L4. Liverpool can be backed on the Asian Handicap -1 goal at (1.91) and this makes sense as Wigan have lost 3 of their 4 home defeats by 2 goals or more. Another option is backing Liverpool to win by the HT/FT result as all 4 of Wigan's home defeats this season have come via this result and Liverpool can be backed at (2.40).

As for goals there are some pretty mixed stats and it makes sense to avoid the Over / Under 2.5 goal market. When looking at Both teams to score then both sides have scored in 4 of Wigan's last 6 at home similar rated sides and in 5 of Liverpool's last 8 away to low rated sides. Both teams to score can be backed at (2.10) and this offers some value at this price.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Wigan on the Asian Handicap +1 goal at (2.02)

QPR v SUNDERLAND

Stats Analysis

QPR have lost five of their last seven Premier League matches (W1, D1, L5). They have won just one of their eight home league matches this season and have earned more points away than at home. They are available at (2.8) which offers value to the ratings but little attraction.

Sunderland have won only one of their past seven Premier League matches. The Black Cats have won only once away from home this season and have lost their last three away matches, they are priced at (2.8) and this offers little value. The draw at (3.3) offers no real value even though its a good possibility.

6 of the last 8 of QPR’s home games have had -2.5 goals as have 5 of the last 8 of Sunderland’s away fixtures this season (6 of the last 10 against low rated sides). Under 2.5 goals is available at (1.8) and offers some value in a game with very little on show.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Under 2.5 goals (1.8)

 ASTON VILLA v ARSENAL

Stats Analysis

Aston Villa have lost just 4 of the 15 home matches against top rated sides whereas Arsenal have won just 3 of the last 8 away fixtures (7 of the last 18 against similar rated sides). Alex McLeish's side have however won only two of their last nine matches and they have lost three of their last four home league matches. They available at (5.00) and this offers value, but it might be wise to keep the draw onside, Aston Villa can be backed (2.10) on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals. The draw offers good value and is priced at (3.75)

Arsenal's defeat to Manchester City on Sunday was their first league loss in nine games. It was also the first time the Gunners had failed to score in a league game since the second match of the season. Arsenal to win are (1.8) and this price offers little value to the ratings.

Aston Villa have failed to score in four of their past five league games and in truth the stats are mixed where goals are concerned. Both teams have scored in 12 of the last 15 Arsenal away matches and in 9 of the last 10 away at similar rated sides. Both teams to score is available at (1.8) and offers decent value if you feel Aston Villa can improve their recent poor scoring form. Over 2.5 goals is very similar having been seen 13 of the last 15 Arsenal away games and in 9 of the last 10 against similar rated sides. Over 2.5 is available at (1.9) and offers value.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

 Over 2.5 goals (1.9)

 EVERTON v SWANSEA

Stats Analysis

Everton have won just 2 of the 8 home matches this season while Swansea have lost only 3 of 10 league fixtures and just 1 of their 4 away games.The Everton price (1.62) looks short.

The draw can be backed at (3.8) and this offers good value in a game with a strong draw bias.

Swansea have the worst away record in the top flight, although their three draws on the road have all come in the last four matches. Swansea are available at (6.25) and although some value it is probably wise to keep the draw on side and back on the Asian Handicap +1.0 at (1.9) = stake returned if Everton win by a single goal.

As for goals there appears to be little value in the Over/Under markets, but Under 2.5 has been seen in 9 of the last 15 Everton home games and is priced (1.9). Everton have not kept a clean sheet in any of their 11 home games in all competitions this season. Both teams have scored in 7 of the last 15 Everton home games and in 4 from the last 8 Swansea away games and is available at (2.10) which offers value.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Both teams to score (2.10)

MAN CITY v STOKE

Stas Analysis 

Manchester City have a 100% home record in this season's Premier League, winning all eight games and conceding just four goals. At (1.25) though there is no value in their current price. There are a couple of options when looking to get value about Manchester City winning this game. The Manchester City clean is priced at (1.83) win to nil (2.10) (9 from last 14 home wins) and the Man City W/W double result has featured in 8 of the last 10 home matches against similar rated teams while Stoke have had L/L double results in 8 out of 8 away matches against top rated teams and so all these offer value to the ratings. Manchester City HT/FT (1.75)

Stoke are on a club record run of four consecutive Premier League wins but even at (15.0) there is no value in the price, the draw at (6.5) is far better value, but really there can't be much argument for it.

As for goals there are some mixed stats and there is very little value available, Under 2.5 goals is avialable at (2.60) and this offers some value, but with Manchester City's scoring form at home it is not really advised.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Manchester City to win to nil (2.10)

FULHAM v MANCHESTER UNITED

Stats Analysis

After being undefeated in their first seven visits to Fulham in the Premier League, Manchester United have not won any of their last three trips to Craven Cottage. They have though won six of their eight away matches so far this season and at this stage last year they had only won one of their eight away matches. Fulham have won just 4 of the16 games under Martin Jol while Manchester United have won 4 of 4 away fixtures and 4 of the last 4 away matches against similar rated opposition. Manchester United price (1.85) is right to the ratings. If you do fancy Manchester United to win then going for them by dutching 1 or 2 goals makes sense as this has been seen in 6 of the last 8 away victories (2.05)

There is strong value in the draw at (3.8)

Fulham are priced at (5.5) and this is priced about right. If you do fancy Fulham it makes sense to keep the draw on side and to back on the Asian Handicap +0.5 at (2.14)

As for goals there are again some mixed stats and there appears little value in the Over/Under and Both teams to score markets.

Betslayer Value Highlight

The draw (3.8)

NEWCASTLE v WEST BROM

 Stats Analysis

Newcastle are winless in five games (D2, L3) but Alan Pardew's side are unbeaten against opponents in the bottom half of the table (W6, D2), the best record of any club outside the current top three. The price of (1.91) is very much inline with the ratings. If you do fancy Newcastle then there is value on the HT/FT at (3.0), this has featured in 4 of Newcastle's last 6 home wins.

West Brom have lost only one of their last five away matches, the price is as per the ratings (3.50) and with the draw available at (3.6). Newcastle have drawn 7 from the last 15 home games so must be a strong consideration.

Newcastle have had +2.5 goals in 6 of the last 9 home matches against similar rated teams as have WBA in 11 of the last 14 away games under Roy Hodgson (6 of the last 7 against similar rated sides). Over 2.5 goals (1.85)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

 Over 2.5 goals (1.85)