NEWCASTLE v SUNDERLAND (Sunday 12.00 ESPN)
Stats Analysis
In what should be a classic North East derby an inform Newcastle welcome a Martin O'Neill managed Sunderland who have averaged 1.83 points per game since he took over. Newcastle look good value here at (2.20) but it should be highlighted they do have a poor home win ratio when playing similar sides, winning only 2 from the last 10 games.
The draw is priced at (3.40) and this holds some decent value in what will be a tough game to call, there is a strong draw bias and Newcastle have drawn 6 of the last 10 home games against similar opponents.
Sunderland are priced at (3.90) and although this looks short to the ratings, as above Sunderland are much improved since the arrival of Martin O’Neill. If you do fancy Sunderland to do well then it makes sense to keep the draw on side and Sunderland can be backed +0.5 goals on the Asian Handicap at (1.80)
As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more goals and this has been seen in 11 of their last 15 home games and in 8 of the last 15 Sunderland away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.00) which looks a good solid price given the above. Both teams have scored in 7of Newcastle's last 10 home games to similar opponents at (1.73) it looks short though especially when looking at Sunderland's record with Both Teams scoring in only 2 of their last 10 against similar opponents.
BetsLayer Value Highlight
The draw (3.40)
FULHAM v WOLVES (Sunday 14.05 Sky Sports 1)
Stats Analysis
Wolves have already beaten Fulham at Molineux this season, but Fulham are a tough side to beat at Craven Cottage. They look priced about right though at (1.6). If you do fancy Fulham perhaps taking them at (2.00) is worth a look at on the Asian Handicap -1, their last 3 home victories against similar opponents have been by 2 or more goals.
The draw can be backed at (3.90) and this offers some value
Wolves can be backed at (6.50) which is priced just below value according to the ratings. If you do fancy Wolves your best option is perhaps on the Asian Handicap +1 goal at (1.92)
As for goals there has been 3 or more in 10 of Fulham's last 15 home games (6 from the last 10 against similar opponents) and in 9 of Wolves last 15 away games (7 from the last 10 similar opposition). Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.90). Both Teams to Score has been seen in 10 of the last 15 Fulham home games and in 12 of the last 15 Wolves away games, so looks very solid at (1.83)
There appears to be some solid value in the Over 1.5 goals in the first half with 2 first half goals being seen in 5 of both sides last 10 against similar opposition, so a price of (2.88) is very tempting.
BetsLayer Value Highlight
Both Teams to Score (1.83).. for a longer odds option try Over 1.5 goals in the first half (2.88)
SPURS v MANCHESTER UNITED (Sunday 16.10 Sky Sports 1)
Stats Analysis
Despite the loss at the Emirates, Spurs are enjoying a fantastic season, they can be backed here at (3.00) and this is priced about right. There is though a strong draw bias and Spurs can be backed +0 goals at (2.05) which is effectively a draw no bet wager.
As above there is a strong draw bias to this game and 3 of the last 5 head to heads have ended in a draw. Both sides have also drawn 5 of their last 10 against similar opponents. The draw is available at (3.40)
Manchester United come to White Hart Lane with a decent record being unbeaten on the last 5 visits. They can be backed at (2.50) and this is priced about right, maybe a little short. If you do fancy Manchester United it makes sense to keep the draw on side and Manchester United can be backed +0 goals at (1.86).
As for goals there is certainly a bias to 3 or more where Spurs are concerned and this has been seen in 7 of the last 10 home games against similar opponents. But priced at (1.73) it looks like the value is on the under side of the market. Both Teams to score also looks one to leave alone at (1.61).
BetsLayer Value Highlight
The draw (3.40)
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