Premier League Betting Value Analysis (March 10th)

BOLTON v QPR (Saturday 12:45pm Sky Sports 2)

Stats Analysis

With both these sides staring down the barrel of relegation this is a real 6-pointer and the odds available on the home win certainly don't offer much appeal especially with no form to back them up. Bolton have won just twice at the Reebok this season and have the second worst home record in the Premier League. Bolton are priced at (2.50). If you do fancy them to not lose this game it makes some sense to back -0.25 Goals on the Asian Handicap (2.15) if its a draw you lose half of the stake. 

The draw is available at (3.40) which is priced about right, but it such an important game for both sides it must be considered

QPR have not really seen the expected upturn in form since Mark Hughes was installed as manager, but their away form does give a glimmer of hope here, they have won 3 times on the road and have lost narrowly in recent away visits to Arsenal and Newcastle and a draw at Villa Park. QPR are available at (3.25) which doesn't hold much value and looks about right. If you do fancy QPR it makes sense to keep the draw on side, back +0 Goals on the Asian Handicap (2.15)

As for goals, there is a bias to 3 or more, this has featured in 9 of the last 15 Bolton home games and in 5 of the last 7 QPR away games against similar opponents. Over 2.5 goals is available at a value price of (1.93). Both teams to score has featured 4 of the last 7 Bolton home games against similar opponents and in all the last 5 QPR games against similar opposition. The price looks short though at (1.67)

There looks to be some good value in taking Bolton to win the first half, QPR have lost the first half in 5 of the last 7 games against similar opponents. Bolton to win the first half (3.00)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals (1.95)

EVERTON v SPURS (Saturday 17:30pm ESPN)

Stats Analysis

Spurs come into this game still reeling from the five goals conceded against Arsenal and the home defeat to Manchester United, maybe the Harry for England campaign has caused a few ripples of uncertainty in the squad. To add to this Everton generally get stronger as the season progresses and also have a good record against the top sides. They have already beaten both Man City and Chelsea at home and have only lost 3 in last 10 at home to similar opposition. Everton are available at (3.00) and if you do fancy them it makes sense to keep the draw on side, Everton 0 Goals on the Asian Handicap (2.19).

The draw is priced at (3.30) which holds no real value however this must be a good option, especially when looking at the head to heads with 3 of the last 5 at Goodison Park being level at fulltime.

Spurs are available at (2.50) which offers some value, however it does make sense to keep the draw with you and back -0.25 Goals on the Asian Handicap (2.08). If the game is drawn you lose half your stake.

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more, this has been the outcome in 5 of the last 10 Everton home games against similar opposition and in 7 of the last 10 Spurs away games generally and against similar opponents. Over 2.5 goals is good value at (2.10). Both teams to score looks more mixed featuring strongly for Spurs in 8 of the last 10 games against similar opponents, but has not featured in the last 5 Everton home games against similar opposition. Both Teams to Score (1.80)

Finally there looks to be some good value in the Half time draw, this has featured in 6 of the last 10 games for both sides against similar opponents. Half time draw (2.10)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Half time draw (2.10)

BetsLayer non-TV Value Highlights

Aston Villa V Fulham = Under 2.5 goals (1.85)

Chelsea v Stoke = Chelsea win to nil (2.00)
Sunderland v Liverpool = Sunderland +0.5 Goals Asian handicap (1.94)
Wolves v Blackburn = Over 2.5 goals (1.80)