Liverpool v Everton - Premier League Betting Value (March 13th)

LIVERPOOL v EVERTON (Tuesday 20:00 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis 

Liverpool have won just four of their opening 13 Premier League home matches and go into this game having taken only 10 from the last 33 points available. There looks to be little value in their current price of (1.80). If you do fancy Liverpool to win it makes sense to Dutch them to win by 1 or 2 goals, this has been the margin in 5 of the last 6 wins against similar opponents and in all 3 of Everton's last 3 defeats to similar opposition. Liverpool to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.14).

The draw is available at (3.6), which must be considered as there is a strong draw bias to this game, Liverpool having drawn 8 of their 13 home games this season.

The Toffees are on a seven-match unbeaten run, but have not won at a side higher than them in the league table. Everton are priced at (5.50) which holds a small amount of value, especially given their seven match unbeaten run with 3 wins and 4 draws. If you do fancy Everton to continue the run it makes sense to keep the draw on side and back (2.10) +0.5 Goals on the Asian Handicap.

As for goals, there appears to be no real value in the market, with a weighting towards 2 or less goals, but this is reflected in the prices with Under 2.5 goals available at (1.81). Both teams to score is also priced about right, having featured 5 of the last 10 games for both sides against similar opposition and available to back at (2.00)

Finally there is some value in going for the Half Time draw, this has featured in 5 of the last 10 for both sides against similar opponents and in all 4 of Liverpool's last 4 home games. Half Time draw (2.20)

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Half Time draw (2.20)

Arsenal v Newcastle - Premier League Betting Value (March 12th)

ARSENAL v NEWCASTLE (Monday 20:00 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Arsenal are looking for a fifth successive Premier League victory and go into this game in confident mood, they are priced at (1.44) which looks a little short against the ratings. If you do fancy Arsenal there could be some legs in going with the -1.5 Goals Asian Handicap (2.10) this offers value and 4 of the last 7 Arsenal victories against similar opposition have been by 2 or more goals, as have all the last 6 Newcastle defeats. For a safer option try the -1.25 Goals which means you only lose half your stake if Arsenal win by 1 goal, priced at (1.91)

The draw is priced at (5.25) and this offers good value and should be considered

Newcastle have lost three of their last four away matches in the Premier League and have only 1 win in their last 10 away against similar opposition, also taking just one point from nine in visits to London this season. Newcastle are available at a healthy looking (8.00). If you do fancy Newcastle it would be worth considering +1.25 Goals Asian Handicap (2.12). Arsenal win by a single goal you receive half of the odds or even +1.5 goals at (1.88).

As for goals there is bias to 3 or more, this has featured in 11 of the last 15 Arsenal home games and in 9 of the last 15 Newcastle away games. Over 2.5 goals is priced at a restrictive (1.61). Both Teams to score has featured in 9 of the last 15 home and away games for both sides but again looks priced about right at (1.83)

Finally the Half Time draw looks a good value option having featured in 7 of the last 9 Arsenal home games against similar opponents and also in 5 of Newcastle's last 10 away to similar opposition. Half Time draw is priced at (2.50).

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Half Time draw (2.50)

Premier League Betting Value (March 11th)

NORWICH v WIGAN (Sunday 16:00pm Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Wigan are really struggling at the moment and the defeat last weekend led to crisis talks between manager and chairman, which doesn't bode well for a tough trip to Norfolk. Norwich have lost only 4 times at home and are available at (1.96) which looks about right to the ratings. If you do fancy Norwich to win Dutch Norwich to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.30) makes good sense as this has been the margin in all 5 of Norwich's home wins and also in 8 of Wigan's last 10 away defeats to similar opponents.

The draw is available at a healthy looking (3.80) which can't be discounted

Wigan are available at (4.50) which offers no value and not much appeal. If you do fancy Wigan it would be wise to keep the draw on side and back +0.5 Goals Asian Handicap (2.00)

As for goals there is a strong bias for 3 or more, Over 2.5 goals is priced at (1.83) which looks good value and has been seen in 10 of Wigan's last 15 away games including last 8. Both teams to score looks another strong option having featured in 7 of the last 10 Norwich home games and in 7 of the last 8 Wigan Away game. Both teams to score (1.73)

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Norwich to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.30)

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Manchester United v West Brom = 2nd Half Highest Scoring (2.10)

Swansea v Manchester City = Manchester City to win by 1 or 2 goals (1.95)

Premier League Betting Value Analysis (March 10th)

BOLTON v QPR (Saturday 12:45pm Sky Sports 2)

Stats Analysis

With both these sides staring down the barrel of relegation this is a real 6-pointer and the odds available on the home win certainly don't offer much appeal especially with no form to back them up. Bolton have won just twice at the Reebok this season and have the second worst home record in the Premier League. Bolton are priced at (2.50). If you do fancy them to not lose this game it makes some sense to back -0.25 Goals on the Asian Handicap (2.15) if its a draw you lose half of the stake. 

The draw is available at (3.40) which is priced about right, but it such an important game for both sides it must be considered

QPR have not really seen the expected upturn in form since Mark Hughes was installed as manager, but their away form does give a glimmer of hope here, they have won 3 times on the road and have lost narrowly in recent away visits to Arsenal and Newcastle and a draw at Villa Park. QPR are available at (3.25) which doesn't hold much value and looks about right. If you do fancy QPR it makes sense to keep the draw on side, back +0 Goals on the Asian Handicap (2.15)

As for goals, there is a bias to 3 or more, this has featured in 9 of the last 15 Bolton home games and in 5 of the last 7 QPR away games against similar opponents. Over 2.5 goals is available at a value price of (1.93). Both teams to score has featured 4 of the last 7 Bolton home games against similar opponents and in all the last 5 QPR games against similar opposition. The price looks short though at (1.67)

There looks to be some good value in taking Bolton to win the first half, QPR have lost the first half in 5 of the last 7 games against similar opponents. Bolton to win the first half (3.00)

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Over 2.5 goals (1.95)

EVERTON v SPURS (Saturday 17:30pm ESPN)

Stats Analysis

Spurs come into this game still reeling from the five goals conceded against Arsenal and the home defeat to Manchester United, maybe the Harry for England campaign has caused a few ripples of uncertainty in the squad. To add to this Everton generally get stronger as the season progresses and also have a good record against the top sides. They have already beaten both Man City and Chelsea at home and have only lost 3 in last 10 at home to similar opposition. Everton are available at (3.00) and if you do fancy them it makes sense to keep the draw on side, Everton 0 Goals on the Asian Handicap (2.19).

The draw is priced at (3.30) which holds no real value however this must be a good option, especially when looking at the head to heads with 3 of the last 5 at Goodison Park being level at fulltime.

Spurs are available at (2.50) which offers some value, however it does make sense to keep the draw with you and back -0.25 Goals on the Asian Handicap (2.08). If the game is drawn you lose half your stake.

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more, this has been the outcome in 5 of the last 10 Everton home games against similar opposition and in 7 of the last 10 Spurs away games generally and against similar opponents. Over 2.5 goals is good value at (2.10). Both teams to score looks more mixed featuring strongly for Spurs in 8 of the last 10 games against similar opponents, but has not featured in the last 5 Everton home games against similar opposition. Both Teams to Score (1.80)

Finally there looks to be some good value in the Half time draw, this has featured in 6 of the last 10 games for both sides against similar opponents. Half time draw (2.10)

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Half time draw (2.10)

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Aston Villa V Fulham = Under 2.5 goals (1.85)

Chelsea v Stoke = Chelsea win to nil (2.00)
Sunderland v Liverpool = Sunderland +0.5 Goals Asian handicap (1.94)
Wolves v Blackburn = Over 2.5 goals (1.80)

Premier League Betting Value (March 4th)

NEWCASTLE v SUNDERLAND (Sunday 12.00 ESPN)


Stats Analysis

In what should be a classic North East derby an inform Newcastle welcome a Martin O'Neill managed Sunderland who have averaged 1.83 points per game since he took over. Newcastle look good value here at (2.20) but it should be highlighted they do have a poor home win ratio when playing similar sides, winning only 2 from the last 10 games.

The draw is priced at (3.40) and this holds some decent value in what will be a tough game to call, there is a strong draw bias and Newcastle have drawn 6 of the last 10 home games against similar opponents.

Sunderland are priced at (3.90) and although this looks short to the ratings, as above Sunderland are much improved since the arrival of Martin O’Neill. If you do fancy Sunderland to do well then it makes sense to keep the draw on side and Sunderland can be backed +0.5 goals on the Asian Handicap at (1.80)

As for goals there is a bias to 3 or more goals and this has been seen in 11 of their last 15 home games and in 8 of the last 15 Sunderland away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (2.00) which looks a good solid price given the above. Both teams have scored in 7of Newcastle's last 10 home games to similar opponents at (1.73) it looks short though especially when looking at Sunderland's record with Both Teams scoring in only 2 of their last 10 against similar opponents.

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The draw (3.40)

FULHAM v WOLVES (Sunday 14.05 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Wolves have already beaten Fulham at Molineux this season, but Fulham are a tough side to beat at Craven Cottage. They look priced about right though at (1.6). If you do fancy Fulham perhaps taking them at (2.00) is worth a look at on the Asian Handicap -1, their last 3 home victories against similar opponents have been by 2 or more goals.

The draw can be backed at (3.90) and this offers some value

Wolves can be backed at (6.50) which is priced just below value according to the ratings. If you do fancy Wolves your best option is perhaps on the Asian Handicap +1 goal at (1.92) 

As for goals there has been 3 or more in 10 of Fulham's last 15 home games (6 from the last 10 against similar opponents) and in 9 of Wolves last 15 away games (7 from the last 10 similar opposition). Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.90). Both Teams to Score has been seen in 10 of the last 15 Fulham home games and in 12 of the last 15 Wolves away games, so looks very solid at (1.83)

There appears to be some solid value in the Over 1.5 goals in the first half with 2 first half goals being seen in 5 of both sides last 10 against similar opposition, so a price of (2.88) is very tempting.

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Both Teams to Score (1.83).. for a longer odds option try Over 1.5 goals in the first half (2.88)

SPURS v MANCHESTER UNITED (Sunday 16.10 Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Despite the loss at the Emirates, Spurs are enjoying a fantastic season, they can be backed here at (3.00) and this is priced about right. There is though a strong draw bias and Spurs can be backed +0 goals at (2.05) which is effectively a draw no bet wager.

As above there is a strong draw bias to this game and 3 of the last 5 head to heads have ended in a draw. Both sides have also drawn 5 of their last 10 against similar opponents. The draw is available at (3.40)

Manchester United come to White Hart Lane with a decent record being unbeaten on the last 5 visits. They can be backed at (2.50) and this is priced about right, maybe a little short. If you do fancy Manchester United it makes sense to keep the draw on side and Manchester United can be backed +0 goals at (1.86).

As for goals there is certainly a bias to 3 or more where Spurs are concerned and this has been seen in 7 of the last 10 home games against similar opponents. But priced at (1.73) it looks like the value is on the under side of the market. Both Teams to score also looks one to leave alone at (1.61).

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The draw (3.40)

Premier League Betting Value (March 3rd)

BetsLayer non-TV Value highlights

QPR v Everton = Half time draw (2.10)

Stoke v Norwich = Lay Stoke (1.95)

West Brom v Chelsea = Dutch Chelsea victory by 1 or 2 goals (2.15)

Wigan v Swansea = Draw (3.30)

Blackburn v Aston Villa = 1st half highest scoring (3.20)

Manchester City v Bolton = Man City to win both halves (2.10)

LIVERPOOL v ARSENAL (Saturday 12.45pm Sky Sports 2)

Stats Analysis

Liverpool are unbeaten at home this season and have a solid record against similar opposition losing only once in the last 10 games. They can be backed at (2.05) which is very much inline with the ratings. If you do fancy Liverpool to win, the win by 1 or 2 goals makes good sense as 4 of Liverpool's 5 home wins against similar opponents and  6 of Arsenal's last 7 away defeats have been by the 1 or 2 goal margin. Dutching the Liverpool win by 1 or 2 goals pays (2.40)

There is a strong draw bias to this game and Liverpool have drawn 7 of their last 9 home games. The draw can be backed at (3.60) which offers value and is an attractive option.

Arsenal are available at (4.00) and this holds no real value. Arsenal have though won 4 of their last 5 away to similar opponents so they should be considered. If you do fancy Arsenal to do well then it would be wise to keep the draw on side and Arsenal can be backed +0.5 goals on the Asian Handicap at (1.91)

As for goals there are some mixed stats between these two sides. However there is a strong bias to 3 or more goals with Arsenal and 9 of their last 10 matches away to similar opponents have seen 3 or more goals. Over 2.5 goals is available at (1.91) and this price is a value option.

Both teams to score looks a strong option and this has been seen in 8 of Liverpool's opening 12 home games this season and 11 of Arsenals last 15 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.73) and this looks priced with some small value.

Finally in what will be a hard fought game, there could be some good value backing the half time draw, this has been seen in 7 of the last 9 Liverpool home games and in 5 of the last 8 Arsenal away games. Half Time draw (2.20)

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Half Time draw (2.20)

Premier League Betting Value (February 26th)

ARSENAL v SPURS (13.30pm Sunday SkySports 1)

Stats Analysis

Its not been a good week for Arsenal, with the terrible result in the San Siro and then the FA cup exit, Arsenal are available here at (2.60) and this is no value. If you do fancy arsenal to do well then the best option is to keep the draw on side and back them on the Asian Handicap -0.25 goals at (2.10). This means should the match end a draw then you are returned half your stake.

The draw can be backed at (3.40) and this looks to offer some good value and must be a good contender for a bet on this game.

Spurs can be backed at (2.90) and this price offers some value. As with Arsenal we would look to keep the draw on side and Spurs can be backed +0.25 goals on the Asian Handicap at (1.85) this means should the game be a draw you receive half the odds.

As for goals, its looks a difficult one to call, with both sides seeing Over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 10 games against similar opposition. Over 2.5 is available at (2.10) which given the recent head to heads could hold some interest and value. Both teams to score looks priced to avoid with a bias to Both Scoring but a prohibitive price of (1.61).

As often with these big pressure games we may see a tight start to the game and Arsenal have been level at half time in 7 of their last 10 home games against similar opponents and Spurs have been level at the break in 7 of their last 12 away games. The half time draw can be backed at (2.30).

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Half time draw (2.30)

BetsLayer non-TV Value Highlights

Norwich v Manchester United =  Norwich +1 goal on the Asian Handicap at (2.03)

Stoke v Swansea =  Swansea +0.5 goals on the Asian Handicap at (1.90)