Premier League Shot on Target Analysis

SOT Corner 
with Jonny Grossmark and Rob Tattersall

Please find below a table showing shot on target (SOT) data for the EPL. There has been a recent interest in this area and it is our hope over the next few weeks to show you how to apply this to improve your betting.

English Premier League Shot on Target Data 2012 /2013 season 8th March, 2013 

	SOT	Goals	G/SOT	Home SOT	Away SOT
Spurs	181	49	0.27	98	83
Man City	173	51	0.29	87	86
Man Utd	164	68	0.41	88	76
Everton	161	44	0.27	87	74
Liverpool	161	53	0.33	95	66
Chelsea	156	56	0.36	89	67
Arsenal	149	53	0.36	86	63
Newcastle	141	38	0.27	81	60
Swansea	134	39	0.29	82	52
Fulham	128	39	0.3	71	57
WBA	112	38	0.34	66	46
QPR	110	21	0.19	65	45
Southamton	114	39	0.34	64	50
Wigan	120	33	0.28	62	58
West Ham	116	32	0.28	68	48
Sunderland	110	31	0.28	56	54
Norwich	99	27	0.27	55	44
Reading	89	34	0.38	47	42
Aston Villa	92	26	0.28	48	44
Stoke	86	26	0.3	52	34

SOT can be used to build a predictive model which will give you goal expectation for each team but SOT is much more flexible than that and can allow for a greater understanding of goal expectation in running (as time decays in a game) if you are willing to take the journey and understand the variables that impede and accelerate goal expectation.

In SOT corner today we can see that the average goal to shot on target ratio is (0.30) in the EPL with the range QPR (0.19) to Man UTD (0.41). We can also see for example that Spurs average a high number of SOT per game (6.46) but are not efficient and should score more goals (0.27).

The SOT table is only a starting point of your journey and you should as soon as research time is available put SOT into time bands so you can see how effective teams are as time decays. Some teams start quickly and some teams SOT output is higher at the end of games and you can take advantage of this type of data.

One area to take this strategy further is you need to be looking at keying shot strength and location data as SOT only data is of limited use. For example was the SOT a 40 yard weak shot or in the box at close range and the keeper made a fine save ?

Once you get to the level of keying shot strength data then the interpretation is key and we will show you how to make the most use of this by assigning teams a category level, but this must be adaptive over a season as circimstances change. It needs to be a flexible strategy because like Aston Villa have recently shown a team can go down the categories and this needs to be incorporated into your strategy.

Each week in SOT corner Football Data Analyst Jonny Grossmark will join us as we build up a picture of how to take advantage of SOT data.

As discussed above you can get SOT data from many places including OPTA, a 442 app (see below) and ESPN but you cannot buy shot strength data if you are an individual so you will have to learn to key it yourself, although as seen below a start point could be shots inside and outside the box.