Strategy: Both teams To Score
There is a growing buzz around the Football betting arena known as BTTS/ Goals Galore or officially “Both Teams To Score”. Basically you bet “Yes” or “No” depending on what you think may happen during the match. There seems to be an aray of Goals Galore tips being banged about on Twitter and other social media sites, but do punters really know if what they're backing actually offers any long term value? Many new punters probably think its easy to find 5 games each weekend, but I assure you that isnt the case. Hopefully after reading this article and applying some of the information you will be able to select your own tips or as I would rather call them investments and start making informed decisions and long term profits.
There is a growing buzz around the Football betting arena known as BTTS/ Goals Galore or officially “Both Teams To Score”. Basically you bet “Yes” or “No” depending on what you think may happen during the match. There seems to be an aray of Goals Galore tips being banged about on Twitter and other social media sites, but do punters really know if what they're backing actually offers any long term value? Many new punters probably think its easy to find 5 games each weekend, but I assure you that isnt the case. Hopefully after reading this article and applying some of the information you will be able to select your own tips or as I would rather call them investments and start making informed decisions and long term profits.
This is a market that we can use BetformPro’s “research it” tool to devastating effect. There are 2 key areas to making this profitable.
1) Analysis of data
2) Find a value bet
Place the bet!
Analysis
The more data you can call upon in most cases increases the accuracy of the data. I used data since the start of the 2009/2010 season which represents nearly 1400 Premier League matches. If you are a user of BetformPro (BFP) you may know that it grades teams according to their league standings.
Grade A: Top 4 teams that normally qualify for the Champions League
Grade B: Top half teams not included in grade A, typically from 5th to 8th places.
Grade C: Mid table teams that are not A or B, but are not usually involved in relegation danger.
Grade D: Bottom 6 or newly promoted teams.
I interrogated BFP to find out the likelihood of BTTS when they played each other over the past 999 Premier League matches.
These are the settings I used. In this example you can see I set the filter to research Grade A v Grade A. You will be able to see the settings I used by the red circles on the example.
Fig 2.
After doing this for all the various combinations I collected the data and transferred it into a simple spreadsheet. As seen below.
Fig 3
As you can see the each section shows the teams grade with the number of times this grade played each other. The % of times both teams scored v didn’t score and the implied odds. The implied odds is very important to us as this gives a guide on where the value lies. i.e In AvA we expect the odds of BTTS to be 1.89. If we found a match like this and the odds on offer were 2.3 we would say that was a great value bet as we are getting bigger odds that the true chances of the result occurring. This bit is a bit boring, but to make money consistently from betting it is something you need to consider every time you make a bet. “Am I getting bigger odds that the true chance of the result occurring”. If you say “yes” to this question every time you strike a bet you will win in the long term. No question.
Find A Value Bet
I want to apply this knowledge we have discovered against some real live matches.
I always use Oddschecker to identify the best odds for any given market. The price examples I am giving here for the weekends upcoming matches are still several days away. I would recommend waiting until nearer kick off before placing your bet, or at least until you have a good idea on any adverse team news that may effect the price.
The oddschecker screen showing prices for QPR v Man Utd for this weekends match: Note few prices on offer yet. Fig 4
Using the information from each of the matches on oddschecker I collected all of the information I need and transferred it into a simple spreadsheet. Making visuals to see information is a trick many pro’s use. Sometimes bets just leap off the page!
I recommend you study this table above and see if it makes sense to you. The prices in the columns under “Implied odds” are the odds that our interrogation of BFP (Fig 3). This is then straightforward to compare the best odds available. We are looking for available odds that are significantly higher than what we consider to be true odds (implied odds)
I have highlighted the 2 matches where a value bet has been identified.
QPR v Man Utd – When a Grade D team is at home to a Grade A team the % chance of Both teams NOT scoring is 57% – this means the implied odds are 1.76. As the spreadsheet shows we can actually back BTTS to score “NO” at 2. In effect your getting Evens for an 8/11 chance.
The 2nd match is Reading v Wigan implied odds are 1.59 for BTTS “YES”. The best price is 1.75. Not amazing value – but certainly a consideration.
Finally if we use the Betform Pre Match tool we can look at the games in question just for confirmation that you are gaining value in your selection and there are no adverse stats between the given teams.
I have highlighted the 2 matches where a value bet has been identified.
QPR v Man Utd – When a Grade D team is at home to a Grade A team the % chance of Both teams NOT scoring is 57% – this means the implied odds are 1.76. As the spreadsheet shows we can actually back BTTS to score “NO” at 2. In effect your getting Evens for an 8/11 chance.
The 2nd match is Reading v Wigan implied odds are 1.59 for BTTS “YES”. The best price is 1.75. Not amazing value – but certainly a consideration.
Finally if we use the Betform Pre Match tool we can look at the games in question just for confirmation that you are gaining value in your selection and there are no adverse stats between the given teams.
What aren’t included in the best odds are exchange prices. These will open up other opportunities as the LAYBET comes into play. i.e In the QPR v Man Utd match, if the best odds HAD included the exchange prices I would be very interested in the BTTS YES price.
Implied odds of 2.32, but a very stingy 1.85 best odds price. A LAYBET at this price would be great value against the true odds. Laying below what the price should be is as good as backing over the true odds.
Now the above approach to finding value can be applied to almost any betting market, in any league and with the research it tool you can look at the main four European leagues in England, Spain, Italy and Germany as well as look at over 60 betting markets. We will look to monitor the Both Teams To Score Market each week and highlight where we feel the value is as well as looking at other markets. Gradually we will build a portfolio of bets and hopefully give you a better insight in how to maximise using the Betform tool as well as improving your personal approach to football betting and trading.
Implied odds of 2.32, but a very stingy 1.85 best odds price. A LAYBET at this price would be great value against the true odds. Laying below what the price should be is as good as backing over the true odds.
Now the above approach to finding value can be applied to almost any betting market, in any league and with the research it tool you can look at the main four European leagues in England, Spain, Italy and Germany as well as look at over 60 betting markets. We will look to monitor the Both Teams To Score Market each week and highlight where we feel the value is as well as looking at other markets. Gradually we will build a portfolio of bets and hopefully give you a better insight in how to maximise using the Betform tool as well as improving your personal approach to football betting and trading.
Betform are offering a 28 day free trial so if you would like to get you hands on this brilliant tool, click here .
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