Friday, 4 May 2012

Premier League Betting Value Analysis (May 5-7th)


ARSENAL v NORWICH (Saturday Not on English TV but did it anyway 12.45pm )

Stats Analysis

Arsenal are priced at (1.25) which holds no real value. If you do fancy Arsenal Dutch to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.42) featured in 6 of Arsenal's last 10 at home to similar opponents also in 7 of Norwich's last 9 away defeats.

The Draw is available at (7.00) which offers some small value but not much appeal

Norwich are at (15.00) which holds no real value. If you do fancy Norwich +1.75 Goals on the Asian Handicap is priced at (2.37) this would have won in 7 of Arsenal's last 10 home games to similar opponents and in 4 of Norwich's last 7 away to similar opposition.

As for goals Under 2.5 Goals (3.00) which has some amount of value having featured in 5 of Arsenal's last 10 home games to similar sides also in 3 of Norwich's last 7 away games to similar opposition. Both Teams to Score at (2.00) holds some value after featuring in 9 of the last 15 Arsenal home games and 10 of Norwich's last 15 away games. 1st Half Over 1.5 goals (2.05) Reasonable value having featured in 9 of Arsenal's last 15 home games also in 6 of Arsenal's last 10 home games to similar sides and in 5 of Norwich's last 10 away games.

Finally the Half time draw (3.00) Offers good value having featured in 10 of Arsenal's last 15 home games also in 6 of Arsenal's last 10 home games to similar opposition plus in 6 of Norwich's last 15 away games.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutch Arsenal to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.42)


NEWCASTLE v MANCHESTER CITY (Sunday 13.30pm Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis

Newcastle are availble at (5.00) which offers value as Newcastle have only lost 2 in 7 against similar sides, if you do fancy them to do well back +0.75 Goal on the Asian Handicap at (2.05)

The Draw (4.20) Offers reasonable value given both sides recent form to similar opposition.

Manchester City are priced (1.73) which offers no real value however they do have a reasonable record at Newcastle and away to similar sides losing only once. Dutch Manchester City to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.10) this has featured in 5 of Manchester City's last 7 away victories at similar sides also in 6 of Newcastle's last 7 home defeats.

As for goals Under 2.5 at (2.10) is a reasonable option having featured in 5 of Newcastle's last 8 home games also in 10 of Manchester City's last 15 away games. No Both Teams to score (2.00) holds good value featured in 9 of Newcastle's last 15 home games also in 9 of Manchester City's last 15 away games

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutch Manchester City to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.10)


MANCHESTER UNITED v SWANSEA (Sunday 16:00pm Sky Sports)

Stats Analysis

Manchester United are priced at a short looking (1.20) which offers no real value. If you do fancy them then consider backing - 2.0 (1.85) Goals on the Asian Handicap. In 15 home games against similar sides this handicap would have been covered 7 times and levelled 5 times only losing three. Another option is Manchester United to win to nil (2.00) which holds good value having featured in 7 of Manchester United's last 9 home games to similar sides also in 3 of Swansea's last 5 away defeats to similar opposition

The Draw is available at (7.50) which offers some value but not much appeal given both sides recent form

Swansea are (19.00) which offers no real value or attraction

As for goals Under 2.5 at (3.00) which offers value having featured in 3 of Manchester United's last 5 home games to similar opposition also in 4 of Swansea's last 7 away games to similar opponents.1st Half Under 1.5 goals (1.85) which offers good value having featured in 7 of Manchester United's last 9 home games also in 9 of Swansea's last 11 away games. The No on Both teams to score (1.83) holds some small value given the stats above for Manchester United.

Finally there could be good sense in backing the 2nd Half Highest Scoring at (2.10) which offers good value having featured in 9 of Manchester United's last 14 home games to similar opponents also in 4 of Swansea's last 7 away games to similar opposition.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

2nd Half Highest Scoring (2.05)


BLACKBURN v WIGAN (Monday 20.00pm Sky Sports 1)

Stats Analysis


Blackburn are priced at (2.50) which offers reasonable value when looking at how they have performed at home to similar sides and also in recent head to heads against Wigan winning the last 5 at home.

The Draw at (3.40) offers some value and should be considered in what is real battle to avoid relegation

Wigan are (3.00) which looks correctly priced but its worth keeping the draw on side and +0 goals can be backed on the Asian Handicap at (2.20)

As for goals Over 2.5 Goals at (1.75) is reasonable value having featured in 7 of Wigan's last 10 away games to similar sides also in 4 of the last 5 head to heads at Ewood Park. 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals (2.75) holds good value having featured in 5 of Blackburn's last 7 at home to similar sides also in 7 of Wigan's last 13 away games. Both Teams to Score looks priced correctly with no real value at (1.66).

Finally the 1st Half Draw (2.40) offers reasonable value having featured in 3 of Blackburns last 6 at home to similar sides also in 6 of Wigan's last 10 away to similar opposition.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

1st Half Draw (2.40)

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