Premier League Betting Value (February 26th)

ARSENAL v SPURS (13.30pm Sunday SkySports 1)

Stats Analysis

Its not been a good week for Arsenal, with the terrible result in the San Siro and then the FA cup exit, Arsenal are available here at (2.60) and this is no value. If you do fancy arsenal to do well then the best option is to keep the draw on side and back them on the Asian Handicap -0.25 goals at (2.10). This means should the match end a draw then you are returned half your stake.

The draw can be backed at (3.40) and this looks to offer some good value and must be a good contender for a bet on this game.

Spurs can be backed at (2.90) and this price offers some value. As with Arsenal we would look to keep the draw on side and Spurs can be backed +0.25 goals on the Asian Handicap at (1.85) this means should the game be a draw you receive half the odds.

As for goals, its looks a difficult one to call, with both sides seeing Over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 10 games against similar opposition. Over 2.5 is available at (2.10) which given the recent head to heads could hold some interest and value. Both teams to score looks priced to avoid with a bias to Both Scoring but a prohibitive price of (1.61).

As often with these big pressure games we may see a tight start to the game and Arsenal have been level at half time in 7 of their last 10 home games against similar opponents and Spurs have been level at the break in 7 of their last 12 away games. The half time draw can be backed at (2.30).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Half time draw (2.30)

BetsLayer non-TV Value Highlights

Norwich v Manchester United =  Norwich +1 goal on the Asian Handicap at (2.03)

Stoke v Swansea =  Swansea +0.5 goals on the Asian Handicap at (1.90)

Premier League Betting Value (February 25th)

MANCHESTER CITY v BLACKBURN (5.30 pm Saturday Sky Sports 1)


Stats Analysis

This Lancashire derby looks a total mismatch, with the League leaders Manchester City having a dominant home record and Blackburn struggling in 17th place just above the relegation zone, the price for the home win here looks about right to the ratings at (1.25). An alternative is Manchester City -2 goals on the Asian Handicap at (1.87) but they have only beaten this 4 times in the last 9 against similar opposition. Perhaps of more appeal is backing Manchester City to score Over 2.5 goals as this covers Blackburn scoring and this has been the outcome in 7 of the last 10 against similar opponents this can be backed at (1.83)

The draw can be backed at (7.00) and although this offers some value it offers no real attraction.

Blackburn's form is very up and down when playing away to similar opposition and they can be backed at (19.00), this offers no value. If you do fancy Blackburn to put up a good fight then they can be backed on the Asian Handicap +2 goals at (2.10) and looking at their previous form away to similar opponents you would have only lost your stake in 3 of the last 10 matches.

As for goals there is a very strong trend for over 2.5 goals, with it featuring in all 10 of Manchester City's games against similar opposition and in 12 of the last 15 generally, however priced at (1.42) this looks like one to leave alone. Both teams to score could be of interest as Blackburn have scored in 7 of the last 10 against similar opponents, but Manchester City don't often concede so its maybe priced with only a little value at (2.00).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Manchester City to score Over 2.5 goals (1.83)

BetsLayer non-TV Value Highlights

Newcastle v Wolves = Over 2.5 goals (1.91)

Chelsea v Bolton = 2nd Half Highest scoring (2.10)

QPR v Fulham = Draw (3.40)

West Brom v Sunderland = Draw (3.40)

Wigan v Aston Villa = Draw (3.40)

Premier League Betting Value Analysis (February 12th)

WOLVES v WEST BROM (Sky Sports 1 13.30)

Stats Analysis

The ratings are showing that Wolves are short to win this game. Wolves can be backed at (2.40) which is definitely not value. 

There is a strong draw bias to this game and the draw can be backed at (3.30), which is priced about right, but should be considered in a game where it is difficult to pick a winner.

West Brom have got some good results away from home this season and are priced at (3.10) and this looks to be good value. With the game having such a strong draw bias it makes sense to keep this on side and West Brom can be backed +0 goals (2.20) 

A for goals, there has been 3 or more in 12 of the last 15 Wolves home games and in 7 of their last 10 home games to similar opposition plus also in 11 of West Brom's last 15 away games. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.91) which looks a great price. Both Teams to score has been seen in 11 of both sides last 15 home and away games and also in 7 from the last 10 Wolves games against similar opponents and in 8 of the last 10 West Brom away against similar opposition. Both Teams to Score is available at (1.70) and looks a solid option.

Looking at the rated form against similar opponents there is a trend for first half goals, with 2 or more featuring in 6 of the last 10 Wolves games at home and also in 5 of the last 10 West Brom away. Over 1.5 goals to be scored in the 1st half is priced at very healthy looking (3.00).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 1.5 goals in the 1st half (3.00)

ASTON VILLA v MANCHESTER CITY (Sky Sports 1 16:00)

Stats Analysis

Aston Villa can be backed at (5.50) and this offers no value, they have though only lost 4 of their last 10 home games to similar opposition and if you do fancy them to do well then backing them on the Asian Handicap +0.75 goals at (1.99) looks an option. This means should Aston Villa lose by 1 goal then you only lose half of your stake. The draw can be backed at (3.75) and whilst priced about right it should be considered, especially given City's recent away struggles and with 2 draws in the last 3 away against similar opponents.

Manchester City must be expected to win this game, especially given the fact that their neighbours moved above them yesterday and in truth there is good value in their price of (1.73). If you do fancy Manchester City to win then I expect this to be a tough game and City have struggled to score goals lately away from the City of Manchester Stadium. Dutching Manchester City to win by 1 or 2 goals makes sense as all 5 of Aston Villa's last 5 home defeats to similar opponents have been by this margin, has have all 5 of the last 5 Manchester City away wins against similar opponents. Dutching the Manchester City win by 1 or 2 goals at (2.10) looks a strong option.

As for goals there is a definite bias to 2 or less and this has been seen in 10 of Aston Villa's last 15 home games and in Manchester City's 5 of the last 6 away and 6 of the last 10 away to similar opponents including their last 3. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.95). Both Teams to Score looks mixed and is maybe best left alone, it has featured in 50% of the two sides games against similar opponents, but at (1.86) looks a price to avoid.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutch Manchester City to win by 1 or 2 goals at (2.10)

Premier League Betting Value Analysis (February 11th)

MANCHESTER UNITED v LIVERPOOL (12.45 Sky Sports 2)

Stats Analysis

The ratings are highlighting some good value in Manchester United's price here at (1.90) and given the recent form in this fixture with United winning 7 from the last 8 this looks a very solid option.

Dutching Manchester United to win by 1 or 2 goals makes some sense as all 8 of their last 8 home victories to similar opposition have come via this margin. This has also featured in 4 of Liverpool's last 5 away defeats to similar opponents. Dutching the Manchester United victory by 1 or 2 goals at (2.20)

Liverpool are priced at (4.50) and this offers no value to the two sides ratings.  If you do fancy Liverpool to do well then it could pay to keep the draw on side and Liverpool can be backed on the Asian handicap +0.5 goals at (2.10). The draw is priced at (3.60) and again holds little value.

As for goals there seems to be some slight value in siding with 2 or less, this has been seen in 6 of the last 10 Manchester United home games against similar opposition and also in 5 of the last 10 Liverpool away games at similar opponents. Under 2.5 goals (1.96). Both teams to score looks mixed and is difficult to assess and there is no real value having featured in 5 of both sides last 10 against similar opposition. Both Teams to score (2.10).

As with a number of these tense big games we might expect a tight start to this game and the teams have been level at the break in 50% of their respective last 10 games against similar opponents. The HT draw is priced at (2.25) which looks good value given the above. Following on from this the 2nd half has been the highest scoring in 6 of Manchester Uniteds last 10 home games to similar opposition and in 7 of Liverpool's last 10 away games to similar opponents. The second half to be the highest scoring can be backed at (2.15).

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Second half to be the highest scoring (2.15)


SPURS v NEWCASTLE (17.30 ESPN)

Stats Analysis

Looking at the ratings it shows Spurs are priced with very little value infact they are looking a little short at (1.50). Newcastle do though have a very poor away record at similar rated opposition winning only 1 from their last 10 and losing 6. If you do fancy Spurs to win then dutching them to win by 1 or 2 goals makes sense as 4 of their last 5 home victories to similar opposition have come via the 1 or 2 goal margin as has 4 of Newcastles last 6 away defeats to similar opponents. Dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals at (2.00)

Newcastle can be backed at (7.50) and they have won 2 of the last 4 head to heads at Spurs. If you do fancy Newcastle to do well they can be backed +1 goal at (2.20) or even +1.25 goals at (1.90). This means should Newcastle lose by the single goal then you receive half the odds. The draw can be backed at (4.40) and this looks to hold some value.

As for goals there are some mixed stats looking at both sides and there appears to be no value in the Over / Under 2.5 goal markets. Both Teams to score seems an option as this has featured in 10 of Spurs last 16 home games and also in 10 of Newcastle's last 16 away games. Both teams to score can be backed at (1.91) and looks worth consideration.

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Dutching the Spurs victory by 1 or 2 goals at (2.00)


BetsLayer Value Selections for non TV games

Blackburn v QPR - Over 2.5 goals (2.00)
Bolton v Wigan - The draw (3.50)
Everton v Chelsea - The draw (3.33)
Fulham v Stoke - Fulham to win (2.00)
Sunderland v Arsenal - Sunderland +0.25 goals at (2.10)
Swansea v Norwich - The draw (3.50)

Liverpool v Spurs - Premier League Betting Value (6th Feb)

LIVERPOOL v SPURS

Stats Analysis

Liverpool look short here to win this game (2.20). If you do fancy Liverpool to win then Spurs will definitely not be easy to breakdown and all 7 of their last 7 defeats against similar opponents have come via the 1 or 2 goal margin, Dutching Liverpool to win by 1 or 2 goals at (2.44) makes good sense.

Spurs are priced at (3.75) and this offers some good value. However given Liverpool's strong home form against similar opposition and head to head record against Spurs it makes sense to keep the draw on side and Spurs can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.25 goals at (2.12) or +0.5 goals at (1.80). The draw is priced at (3.40) and this offers some small value and should be considered.

As for goals there are some pretty mixed stats in this game and there appears to be no real value in the Over / Unders or Both Teams to Score markets. Maybe of interest is the 2/3 total goals as this has been the outcome in 9 of the last 10 Liverpool games against similar opposition and in 5 from the last 10 Spurs away games against similar opponents. 2/3 goals available at (2.00)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Lay Liverpool to win at (2.20) or Back Spurs on Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at (1.80)

Note: If no access to a betting exchange or Asian Handicap.. Dutch the draw (3.40) and the away win (3.75) e.g If using a £100 stake place £52.45 on the draw and £47.55 on Spurs. 

http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html

Premier League Betting value Selections (February 5th)

NEWCASTLE v ASTON VILLA

BetsLayer Value Highlights


There have been +2.5 goals in 6 of the last 8 Newcastle home matches against similar opposition and in 8 of the last 9 Aston Villa away matches against similar opposition. Over 2.5 (1.95) holds some value.

There is a decent draw bias to this game and Newcastle have drawn 4 of the last 10 home games against similar opposition.

BetsLayer Value Selection

The Draw (3.40)

CHELSEA v MANCHESTER UNITED

Betslayer Value Highlights

Chelsea have been level at the break in 7 of the last 10 home matches against similar opposition (3 x 0-0), this has also featured in 5 of Manchester United's last 8 away to similar opponents (5 x 0-0). HT Draw (2.20)

 There has been -2.5 goals in 6 of the last 8 Man Utd away matches against similar opponents and -2.5 goals has been seen in 6 of Chelsea's last 9 home games to similar opponents. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at (1.95)

The 1st goal of the game to be scored after 27 minutes looks a good option, especially when looking at the stats above concerning HT 0-0's and has been seen in 7 of Chelsea's last 9 at home to similar opposition and in all 8 of Manchester United's last 8 away games. The 1st goal of the game after 27 minutes can be backed at (2.00)

BetsLayer Value Selection

The 1st goal of the game after 27 minutes at (2.00)

Premier League Betting Value Selections (February 4th)

ARSENAL v BLACKBURN

Value Stats Highlight

There is no value in Arsenals price of (1.30), to win by 1 or 2 goals looks better as its featured in 6 of the last 8 home victories against similar opposition.

BetsLayer Value Selection

Arsenal to win by 1 or 2 goals (2.00)

NORWICH v BOLTON

Value Stats Highlight

Norwich look good value here at (2.00). There have been +2.5 goals in 3 of the last 4 Norwich league games and in 10 of the last 11 of Bolton’s away games this season (3 of the last 4 against similar opposition).

BetsLayer Value Selection

Over 2.5 goals (1.91)

QPR v WOLVES

Value Stats Highlight

In a game with very little stand out value, the only bit that jumps out is the draw at (3.50)

BetsLayer Value Selection

The Draw (3.50)


STOKE v SUNDERLAND

Value Stats Highlight

Another game with little standout trends or value, there is no value in Stoke's price (2.10), Sunderland are playing some good stuff under Martin O'Neill and there is some value at (3.60).

BetsLayer Value Selection

The Draw (3.40) or for the safer option Sunderland +0.25 (2.15)

WEST BROM v SWANSEA

Value Stats Highlight

WBA have drawn the first half in 7 of the last 10 home matches. Over 2.5 also looks value at (2.20) having featured  in 6 of West Brom's last 10 at home to similar opposition and in 3 of Swansea's last 5 away to similar opposition.

BetsLayer Value Selection

HT Draw (2.10)

WIGAN v EVERTON

Value Stats Highlight

There is a decent draw bias to this game and the draw is (3.33). There have been -2.5 goals in 6 of the last 8 Wigan home matches against similar opposition and in 11 of the last 14 Everton away matches. Under 2.5 goals (1.83)

BetsLayer Value Selection

Under 2.5 goals (1.83)

MANCHESTER CITY v FULHAM

Value Stats Highlight

Manchester City's price holds no real value (1.30) although they do have a 100% home record this season. Fulham can be a hard side to breakdown and since the start of last season 6 games away to similar opposition they have lost none by more than 2 goals. Duitching the Manchester city win by 1 or 2 goals at (1.95)

 BetsLayer Value Selection

Duitch Manchester City win by 1 or 2 goals (1.95)

Premier League Betting Value Analysis (February 1st)

SUNDERLAND v NORWICH

Stats Analysis

Sunderland can be backed at (1.80) and this doesn't hold much value, although they are vastly improved since the change of manager. If you do fancy Sunderland then taking them to win by 1 or 2 goals makes sense as Norwich have genrally been a tough side to beat strongly. Dutching Sunderland to win by 1 or 2 goals at (2.20). 

Norwich are priced at (5.00) and this looks to offer some value and with a strong draw bias to this game if you do fancy Norwich to do well then it would seem wise to keep the draw on side, Norwich can be backed on the Asian Handicap + 0.75 goals at (1.85)

Sunderland have had +2.5 goals in 6 of the last 10 home matches (11 of the last 19 league games) as have Norwich in 7 of their 11 away fixtures. Over 2.5 goals (1.91). Both teams to score looks strong and both teams have found the net in 7 of Sunderlands last 10 home games to similar opposition and in 10 of Norwich's opening 11 away games. Both teams to score at (1.80)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals (1.91)

BOLTON v ARSENAL

Stats Analysis 

After 3 straight league defeats can Arsenal bounce back at a ground they have found tough on recent visits. Looking at the ratings there is some small value about Bolton at (5.50). They have lost 6 from 10 at home against similar rated sides, but do hold 3 wins from the last 5 against Arsenal at the Reebok. If you do fancy Bolton to continue their recent improvement it would certainly make sense to back on the Asian Handicap at +0.75 goals which keeps the draw on side, available at (2.10). The draw is available at (3.50) and whilst offering no real amount of value should be considered.

There is no real value about Arsenal's price here at (1.67), their record at similar rated sides is strong though with 6 wins from 10 games but they have only won 4 from the last 15 away games. (Arsenal have won those 4 away wins in the last 7 games though). If you do fancy Arsenal to win here, it does make some sense to back them to win HT/FT this has featured in all 6 of Bolton's home defeats and also in 5 of Arsenal's 6 away wins against similar rated opposition. Arsenal HT/FT (2.50). An alternative is backing Arsenal to be leading at HT they have been ahead 8 of the last 10 games against similar rated sides. Arsenal HT (2.20)

Analysing the goals markets, there is strong bias to +2.5 goals, this has featured in 8 of Bolton's last 9 home games and 13 from Arsenal's last 15 away, 9 from 10 against similar rated opposition. Over 2.5 goals is available at (1.73) and looks a value price. Both teams to score also looks stong, featuring in 8 from Bolton's 15 home games (4 from last 7 against similar rated) and 12 from 15 Arsenal's away games (6 from 10 against similar rated teams). Both Teams to Score at (1.7) offers only little value though and its not really of interest as there are better options available.

 There have been +3.5 goals scored in 7 of the last 10 Bolton home games against similar opposition and in 5 of the last 7 of Arsenal’s away games against similar opposition. Over 3.5 (2.75)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals (1.73)

ASTON VILLA v QPR 

Stats Analysis

There have been -2.5 goals scored in 11 of the last 15 Aston Villa home matches (7 of the last 12 against similar opposition) and in 4 of the last 4 QPR away games. Under 2.5 goals (1.80)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Under 2.5 goals (1.80)

FULHAM v WBA

Stats Analysis

Over 2.5 goals or more have been scored in 7 of the last 9 Fulham home matches and in 13 of the 17 WBA’s away fixtures. Over 2.5 goals (1.95)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

Over 2.5 goals (1.95)

BLACKBURN v NEWCASTLE

Stats Analysis

Blackburn have drawn the first half in 8 of the last 11 home matches against similar opposition and this has also been seen in 6 of the last 10 Newcastle away games against similar opposition. HT draw (2.20)

There have been -2.5 goals in 7 of the last 8 Newcastle away matches against similar opposition and in 6 of the last 10 Blackburn home games against similar opposition. Under 2.5 goals (1.90)

BetsLayer Value Highlight

HT draw (2.20)


(Note: Reduced write ups due to work commitments)